Transcripts For DW To The Point 20221119 : vimarsana.com

DW To The Point November 19, 2022

Praise from president s to lensky, who called at the beginning of the end of the war, yet far from winding down rush has been ramping up missile attacks on Critical Energy infrastructure leaving millions of ukrainians without power. Our question this week after hassan, what our Russian Strategic goals with. Hello and a very warm welcome to to the point. It is a pleasure to introduce our guests. Maria mackie, ava is editor in chief of the russian broadcaster aust vest tv based here in germany. Constantine fund, how much time reports on defense and Security Issues for the german news magazine dash ego. And joining us remotely from bon is my ukrainian colleague roman cancer anchor, who works with t ws ration desk. Great to have all of you with us. Constantine. Lets start with that missile blast that killed 2 people in poland. Poland, of course is a nato member. The consensus seems to be that the incident was not a deliberate attack by russia. Do you share that view and how quickly could this have provoked escalation . If experts had not reached that conclusion, well i show etc. But what Everybody Knows is that it was in fact a accident that a ukrainian anti or air defense from the sale just missed the target and do went down in poland and killed 2 people. But of course, it was a very dangerous situation. I mean, just imagine it would have been, am washington tech or a wash and provoked accident them. We had a completely different ball game. I dont think that this would have provoked a article 5 response by nato, but, but of course it has, it would have escalated the situation very seriously. Maria, the deadly explosion occurred as russia has been pounding Critical Infrastructure, energy, water utilities, across the country, including very close to the polish border is put in playing with fire. Basically, he plays with fire from the very beginning, actually from 2014 probably even. Yes. So, and i just said, answer you, yes, of course. And also the starting a war with natural country is the last. Thank you once now and, and just had some, some conversation with their my moscow friends about it, which is more and more complicated sir, with every day because many people just laughs and who stay there. They have some, i mean, understanding of whats going on and they close a door, probably some advisors of government guys. I mean, so on this a thats probably even he just dreaming about being in 23 or february. Now, just to change his mind and not starting all this war and whether he might change his mind to something we want to pick up on just a little bit later. But let me go now to roman and roman the bombardment of ukraine, cities and Power Infrastructure that weve seen just recently was the most massive missile attack since the war began. The u. S. Ambassador to the un is accusing protein essentially of trying to freeze ukrainians who have no power into submission. That hardly sounds like were seeing the beginning of the end of the war, which is what president zalinski said on his visit to hassan. Not at all. So we have to break so selves for a loaner war, definitely months ahead, probably years. So russia is basically trying to do 2 things. It is trying to go in and offensive in the east of ukrainian, don barza with which is not so successful. It is not successful at all in the south, and it has much more success with such strikes, missile strikes weve seen in the past days. And what is new, maybe is that russia is trying to hit ukrainian guess stations, and its a gas industry because the grain is producing gas as well for its own demand. And this gives us an idea what russia is aiming at. It is aiming at to before winter and winter is very, very cold in ukraine to destroy the ukraine in power structure, the power grid, and the guess energy supplies. And so it is, it has already been taken over a Nuclear Power plant in a preacher. It is, it could try to take control of other power plants, Nuclear Power plants in ukraine and by hitting the Critical Infrastructure infrastructure of course rushes trying to so to say bomb ukraine, back to the negotiating table. The explosion in poland and the barrage of attacks on ukrainian infrastructure were occurring just as world leaders. Were meeting in bali half a world away. To the surprise of many, they wound up issuing a joint declaration condemning the russian war on ukraine. Ah, planting trees for the environment and freedom, but the peaceful statement by the g. 20 participants was abruptly drowned out by reports of new Russian Missile attacks in ukraine. And the reactions were suitably sharp. Mamma, when worley is here in volume, she can make for peace for okay, goodness, striking, civilian targets. Children. I mean, just so mm hm. And my, my words, are your barbaric orders to proceed to the north. At our summit, everyone talked about how to end the russian war. Even the russian delegate made comments on the subject. And then nearly 100. 00 Russian Missiles hit ukraine, burning down residential buildings destroying power plants. Again, hundreds of cities were left with that electricity, water heat, and internet. Some of the is putins russia finally isolated from the Global Community . And let me put that question straight away to constantine constantine. This g. 20 a statement at the end of the meeting. That apparently, according to the indonesian host, was reached unanimously, meaning it would have had some kind of buy in from russian allies, china and india. Do you think it makes a difference . Of course, it makes a difference because russia is completely isolated to the ukrainian president. Zalinski was talking not about g 20, but to about g 19. And if you saw the pictures and just love of was sitting there in a t shirt somewhere under palm trees and it showed, i think exactly where washer stance of the diplomatic world thats isolated. Of course, not everybody is really a, as a stake in this conflict and you f, a gun latin american states dont have the same stake as europeans or american surf. But i think the declaration really shows that to us is isolated to him. So its a big blow for, for, for the russian diplomatic efforts, maria constant, he mentioned a lever off the foreign minister of russia sitting under the palm trees. But in fact, he was sitting in the room at the g. 20 meeting when the president lensky gave his virtual speech to the group and lever off, then fired back with a long set of accusations. Are essentially once again declaring russia to be the true victim. In this conflict, would you expect the g 20 statement and this by, in, from china and india to whatever extent its there to actually make a difference for Vladimir Putin in his calculations. Actually, plasma was and didnt come to the 20, not just because he has something more important to do is because he expected such reaction of course. And this is basically nothing so new because last month so which war can sing is so would shows i him that hes not right what hes doing and hes, hes going to be completely insulated, visit you and constant in told before. But also im not agree with me in a question about india because i just heard last week, i think that was sir. And some governments minister who declared that whats is goods and lead to prosperity of our people are going to do. He was looking about gas prices, and this is very generous for engine is now. I mean, passion, gas. So, and theyre going to continue. So completely let it in one sense. Everybodys disagree with the war itself, but its not about traits, not probably for in san china, so so small leave, isolated, so you dont know little shine end in dont, according real pressure on Vladimir Putin. China probably. I expect that because say there is moments when it could be some new rachel relations of china and west and if it will be sol. So china, which us was good for. Well, that country, in that sense, probably something will be different. And roman, in fact, Chinese Foreign minister wang ye was one of the very few people to actually meet face to face with sergei. Love rough Chinese Media report that love for off of said that a nuclear war cannot be one. Im quoting here and must never be fought. So coming back to the question of potential escalation of this conflict, what if anything, does that tell us about russias intentions . Well, it is important of course, that the mold leaders of the g sent 20 summit. I said that there should be no nuclear threat, no nuclear war in ukraine as well. So, and the danger was there because there was russian rhetoric threatening your grand with Nuclear Weapons, especially very harsh rhetoric by the former president , meeting him at video. And maybe some others are so ice. I would say that after the summit, maybe this danger is not over, but it is, it has diminished, are important, is that in the declaration, and there was a condemnation of the war, there was the war itself. The word war was in the declaration in russia is still called special military operation. And if youre, if you remember in the year 2014, in the summer during the summer in australia, there was only mentioning of geopolitical tensions. So no mentioned in your view. Cray, no mention of any kind of war, and that was already after the annexation of crimea, and after the war in don boss in the east and you can actually start it. So coming back to the question, if russia is isolated, it is not as isolated as some might hope for in the west countries like ro, china and india. And also turkey are very ambivalent and this remains so. So where basically where we were in march when the General Assembly adopted that resolution condemning this war about a 140. 00 countries cuts a tin roman says he thinks that the threat of potential Nuclear Escalation might be slightly less in part due to the declaration id like to know your take on that in us is strategically speaking with this war, looking less winnable for russia. Well talk in a minute about why that might be the case with it looking less winnable. Do you think put him would be more likely to turn to some kind of Nuclear Weapons . I dont think so. I think eve, i mean diplomatically the, the, the, the threat as well as diminished. But i think meet only does make any sense to use Nuclear Weapons. And theres even the question whether m washington should be able to to use them. Because its very complicated meter you maneuver to do this. They are not trained for this. Bobby would be it would kill more wash and so just than ukrainians and i think its a lot of tockets fifths, of course. But even in you probably below no better home. Uh, washing talk shows work but, but even in the wash and talk shows, as far as i know is the, the weather was torn down. And the last couple of days and weeks i see maria nodding over there. Yes sir. Look, im not put in. Yeah, im just a bond graph and so i dont know what is in it in his head is, and the standards are that nukes are the very last press, you couldnt use anything after that. So this is our greatest hope. So lets talk about what other threats might be on the table. The war looks less winnable for puttin, not least due to his forces withdraw from calf son, which was the 1st and only regional capital in ukraine that russia was able to capture and hoard strategically. Its a turning point, but in which direction . Ah, residents of harrison, both young and old, are still celebrating the citys liberation. After 8 months of russian occupation, people wave ukrainian flag and embraced their soldiers. Short mazata limits. We have no electricity, no water, no internet, no communications, no heating. But there are no russians either. And thats why were happy michelle sleeve. Now him what the, what do we feel . Ukraine was, is and will be. No one will be able to conquer it, crush it. We are united as never before. The ukranian president has also visited the liberated city. His surprised visit is a show of strength to russia. Is at the beginning of the whole day and of the war. Of course, you see i was wrong army, we are step by step gamino dollar to all a concert into all the timber of your body. There, there is but the war is not over yet. Despite reports from ukrainian sources that their army has recently recaptured around 100 in any villages in the south. Heavy fighting continues in the east was scarce than just a flash in the pan in the end. From maria, how do you interpret proteins decision to approve an orderly withdrawal from house sun as opposed to simply seeking to try to hold it despite on going losses . Do you think it represents a real shift in put in strategy . Oh, i think its, sir, its change in the war, but we will see their circumstances not very fast, and they see that will be probably some months weve been year until the war a somehow will ends unfortunately. But the seal, there is a huge slap. So him to put him because he declared his song to russian theory, tory one business is just go force and back with the troops in other countries here dory. And another thing had to go back from you on your own as he thinks about the territories. So he strategy didnt work out and sold my realization on all this poor guys who was sent to the front. They couldnt do anything for him. They dont want to fight briskly. And sir ukrainians depends in absolutely heroically. And yet this is just results. Roman, the jubilant Ukrainian Forces that we saw in that report clearly of no inclination to take a break after this success. Theyve been continuing to strike deep behind russian 4 lines of it in particular along the eastern bank of the denise pro river. Where do you think that things go from here . What do you see as being in store . Well im, i think we should watch don barza the east of ukraine very closely because this is where the most severe fighting is taking place. And this is where it is important for putting to have a kind of were reading situation. So he wants to, to occupy the whole region of the nascar. He failed in that. So, and this is where we have reports that the troops from here so on, Russian Troops are be moved to their be moved to the city of baltimore, which is a small, small town actually. But it is on a strategic cross road in between, in north and south of the next region. And this is where i expect the russians will intensify the fighting. And we have to understand that the, those missile strikes weve seen in, in the last days that russia is continuing. Now they are also a kind of a response to the, to the fact that putting had to give up her son. And there was a lot of frustration in his supporters. So this is also an opportunity for him to show, look, im hitting your crane so ukraine is in pain. So dont worry, well, well win. This is the message also constant in some nato officers including the head of the u. S. Joint chiefs of staff, general milli, have suggested that a winter lull in fighting would be a good moment for ukraine and russia to sit down at the table. And try to negotiate care says that a stalemate would simply allow russia to consolidate its gains. Whose right . The ukrainians because when they have momentum at the moment its, it was the, the house on retreat by the witness was a very significant militant military blow to the russian army. Good. Was completely different from the the ukrainian victory am hark if they, if they were very fast, the russians were surprised. They didnt have their strongest forces there. But in the house one they had this one was forced elite troops and theyve, theyve been edison so, so it was really a significant loss for the russians. The momentum was on the ukrainian side and it would put him once he wants to have a pause because he wants to rebuild his army and he needs to rebuild his army. And if, if the ukrainians pressure on her, he will have problems too too. We concede, we or we built his army, and in fact maria, he needs to rebuild because at least according to the same us general, the head of the joint chiefs of staff, the casualties on both sides have been 100000. Each very serious casualties are so, of course, for the russian side, how long can brush sustain those kind of law says not just in terms of the military picture, but also of course, politically. Do you see any indication in russia of a genuine willingness to look for a negotiated settlement . This is very interesting question, but it couldnt be a short answer actually. Because sir propaganda works really brilliantly. I mean, in bed sense because people receiving coffins with by this of their dearest ones and they do not do anything and they do not ask questions or they are very angry and say ukraine, what youve done to my son. And weve seen this video as like about one woman who was crying in their boss and says she was shouting this exactly words not present with the attentive to my its ukraine. And sir, people mostly just tried to survive this, her stamps, and did not think about the war at all in russia. I understand this is very hard to believe and to understand and to receive for me is to receive it. This is really hard, but s and ascended. People just leave their life and try not to think about putting decided something. And it doesnt matter for me, scarce on rationalist is on ukrainian, so well just strive to get some money. Ands get through this difficult times better like people are to speak about it. Yeah, roman, let me ask you about resolve in ukraine as we mentioned, millions of ukrainians facing massive powder power outages, emerging evidence that the russians occupiers in her son applied torture to civilians and evidence that many, many or ukrainian children has been separated from their families. Does all of that add up to a likelihood that we will see ukrainian resolve strengthened or exhausted while there is no, no indication of ukrainian resilience diminishing so it is just her, it is remaining on a very high level. And although how those hardships, although, so missiles strikes, adjuster make, make ukrainian population even more resilient and saying we are ready to be to leave, or just the, as the landscape put it some a few months ago. Um and his speech, he said, oh, we already addressing russians. I think he said, we will leave without light without electricity, without supplies. But without you. And i think this is the spirit of ukraine of the moment. Konstantin, the German Military economists, marcus k up said this that it would just immediately after the her son or withdrawal, that in fact rush is already lost the war but that he believes fighting will c

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