The desperate search for shoppers is on. Hoping to reel in buyers and confiden Consumer Confidence at a low. Does that mean that the economy is already scrooged . Hi, everyone, im he brenna buttner, this is bulls and bears, and weve got gary b smith, tobin smith. Jonas max ferris and susan and larry. Okay, larry, no deal on taxes and debt scrooging holiday sales and the economy . Thats right, brenda, you know, i dont want to be the grinch here, but in a word we are scrooged. The grinch very, very optimistic expectations and an outlook for retail sales that was very rosie and those optimistic expectations have faded as weve gotten closer and closer to the end of the year with no fiscal cliff deal in sight. And as a result, Consumer Sentiment is falling off a cliff, just like the fiscal cliff were going to fall off so weve got a problem on our hands and couldnt happen at a worse time and today, super saturday, the second busiest day of the year. Brenda well, a lot of retailers are saving the big discounts until right at christmas and after. If consumers know that, maybe theyre waiting, too . Thats right. A lot of us are procrastinators and havent started our shopping and a ways to go. You Retail Holiday season ends on january 31st, not december 31st or december 25th. Retailers close their year end books at the end of january and so theres still time, were going to get a deal on the fiscal cliff, im sure of it and theres time for retailers to have great sales for for consumers to go out there and buy stuff and we could have a boom in january. Brenda the optimistic, but procrastinating susan and maybe why you havent received your gift yet. Do you buy her math there . Susan sounds like president obama, who says he was a hopeless optimist. I think that was a compliment. And thats what susan sounds like, unfortunately, the numbers dont back up what you say. Look, most economists think that Consumer Spending needs to grow 3 year it year in order to stimulate employment. At the end of the third quarter, were right about 3 . Most people, even in the retail industry, think the Fourth Quarter is going to be lousy. Now, maybe we get this mirror ball spree buying that susan thin were going to get, i dont think so. If its less than 3 year to year, which it probably will be. I see a very flat economy, if not unemployment goes back up. Brenda okay. Jonas, whats your view on spending and what it means to the economy, if we go over the cliff, taxpayers will have less money in their pockets. Right, which is why its strange theyre spending less than theyre supposed to. And right now, never had it so good in the taxes in effect and for another week. The. The problem ty know its going to get worse. Retailer stocks were doing well, better than the market at large and when the paranoia kicked in, theyre not going to affect anything and a big storm that did hurt peoples confidence, but the bottom line, consumers are scared and dont know where the taxes are going, its not a recession, well have higher spending this year, but not as high, and estimators lowered the thoughts on what sales are going to be. Its 100 fearbased and coming currently is not that bad. But fear does factor into this, doesnt it toby . The fear that theyll have higher taxes, there will be fewer services . Well, you know, one of the having dichotoms, if you will, of our economy, sort of the top 20 of earners spend about 60 almost of Discretionary Spending so its like a 31 level factor, if youre worried about the economy and onehird of people saying as they are, it matters who the people are and what were seeing is in the higher income numbers, in the people that actually are affected by these tax rates, we are seeing the pullback, and thats what im afraid of. Its not the whole economy being scrooged, although i love the teasers you guys make. Will the top 20 of the people, if they start to pull back, it has a threetime effect over the overall economy. Brenda news alert, toby likes teases. Susan, what do you think about that, that its the higher taxpayer . Thats definitely a part of the equation here. One of the other interesting facts thats happening in this season versus last season is that the retailers are not discounting as much as they did last year. They all really went hard on the sales very early in the season and they killed their margins last year and theyre hotd not doing that this year and its a direct correlation, higher revenues and lower margins because youre discounting and they decided not to do that and thats hurting them. Anthats why i think that post christmas, january youre going to see deeper sales and theyll see the inventory. Go on amazon today, buy the stuff and get it on monday. Brenda larry, what do you say about that . Sure, well, i would say that the real concern is going to be actually for next year, not this year. If we look at the estimates of the National Retail federation, they say if taxes go up, thats going to kill retail sales for the first half of next year and thats the concern. When the average consumer gets the pay stub the first half of the year, theyre going to hit the roof and see how much more money theyre paying to the government and how much less in their wallet to spend at that store they love so much. So the real this is a precursor to the real nasty stuff that happens after january 1st if we dont get a deal that keeps taxes low forever. To susans point, if the people stop spending and so alarmed about this, theyre going to be marching on congress to get a deal done, arent they . E need a deal done, i think we all agree, we need a deal done. Brenda okay, thats, were not going to go there right now. Weve got to talk about the fact that right now, we do have about a week more to do a deal, but consumers are pulling back, confidence is low. Gary b . Well, absolutely. And the only way the consumer is going to get out and spend, its a doubleedged sword. When i went around the fall, the only stores doing limited 2 where it was 50 off everything. Limited 2 cant make money at 50 off everything. E markup is normally, a keystone markup or 100 to give away 50 theyre giving away their profits, so if thats the only place that consumers are spending, larry is right well see it in 2013, the limited will report zero profits for the quarter. So the problem is, kurms are out there, even if ne spend the retailers arent making any money. No one wins in this kind of economy. Renda and jonas, if retailers are really hitting their margins, thats a problem because nen we have not only customers not buying, but retailers are hurt and thats all, you know, fds into itself. Its a good time if they dont lower the prices much, if they perceive the economy is Strong Enough, the consumer is in a Strong Enough position because they can be wrong the past few weeks,he perception they can get away with higher prices. No one is shopping there. The consumer got the memo, taxes are going up at some point next year. What the problem is, nobody knows who and what and what part of it. If they have some sort of thing, that couldnt have been as bad as the the cliff so we knew it before the Holiday Shopping season and the ultimately the salhigher and knowing theres a certain bracket point that may get the increase or not. And where gary traveled for the shopping experience, it may have been bad if potomac, maryland. I was in houston, texas, ive never seen more human beings buying stuff the at galleria. What at the apple and other store giving 50 off. All the other stores, no one is there. Theyre doing okay and the parts of the country that are doing okay and i think we forgets that they take this all at one thing and a lotf parts of the country are doing good. Gary b, a response. Well, for tobys information, i was actually in rockville, maryland. Three miles. I went out a little bit. No, i think look, were going to know in a few weeks what the retailers report. Toby says theyre doing great. I think theyre doing horribly. Theyre doing okay. And the ones reporting sales are going to have very little profit. Amazon, i think im going to g long, amazon had a record day on friday. Brenda okay, well end on that note. So you want to know why theres no deal in d. C. . Neils gang says look no further than what santa is haing out in d. C. Thats at the bottom of the hour, but up here first. Just when you thought this number couldnt go any higher. The government launches a Youtube Channel to push more government handouts. Does this add up or is it just does this add up or is it just i always wait until the last minute. Can i still ship a gift in time r christmas . Yeah, sure you can. Great. Wheres your gift . Uh. Whew. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. Ship Fedex Express by december 22nd for christmas delivery. You know how painful heartburn can be. For fast, long lasting relief, use doctor recommended gaviscon®. Only gaviscon® forms a protective barrier that helps block stomach acid from splashing up relieving the pain quickly. Try fast, long lasting gaviscon®. Executor of efficiency. You can spot an amateur from a mile away. While going shoeless and metalfree in seconds. And you. Rent from national. Because only national lets you choo any car in the aisle. And go. You can even take a fullsize or above, and still pay the midsize price. Now this. Will work. [ ale announcer ] just like you, business pro. Just like you. Go naonal. Go like a pro. Im kelly wright, back to bulls and bear, for e all the latest headlines go to foxnews. Com. Uncle sam now on youtube. No, its not a hoax like the latest Youtube Video going viral, but it just may have taxpayers going viral. The new line tutorial showing americans how to customize government benefits to suit you. To begin the benefit finder you must first answer the nine core questions essential to narrowing your results. Remember, the more questions you answer, the more likely you are to be eligible for the benefits that appear on your benefit results list. We hope this tutorial has helped you on your path to government benefits. So, point, click and pick your benefits. Gary b, is this what the nation needs . Absolutely not, brenda. In fact the opposite. And the whole concept, i think, is scary. I went through and did the tutorial and answered the nine questio, it brought back bad memories of the sats and i persevered. And i qualified for 25 programs and two questions, one, what is the government doing with all of these programs . Why are they involved . Noti for example, i qualified for family programs and assist the individual to determine the number and spacing of their children. Now, i didnt really think thats the governments job. I really, i dont think i need any more assistance in that area. But the bigger question is, brenda, this is all basically free money. As you expand the trough, as you expand the access to people, people are going to flock to it. What does that do . It makes us beholden to government. The more beholden to government more obama on the left and government wants to raise taxes to feed that trough. Brenda i scored higher than you, i went on and i had more than 50 that i could do. 50 . And susan, you say this is more efficient for government . It can be. It counts counter intuitive, what happens in government you create a program, you see whether it works or doesnt work, who is coming to it and if its not working you create a new program you dont actually kill the old one, we wind up, gary b, youre finding 60 different programs seems like theyre doing the same thing. If we have a tool that actually helps us identify the right people to benefit for the programs that we create and the ones that arent getting, we kill them, well get the bureaucracy and all right. You dont believe me, but i tell you, its true. Brenda is this what this online tutorial is all about it or more on the government dole . This is about Big Government what the website is about. A better example the government is not serious about reducing run away website. The good news i qualify for 50 different programs, programs i never heard of, i dont need and i dont want. Instead, maybe the the government could be using technology to help get people off the benefits. And we can give them skills to go out in the work force. Thats one of the programs. I mean, yeah, weve ruined the whole program thats one of the programs, you can get more skills and get off the dole. Brenda okay, jonas, whats your take . And ive got you all beat and i filled out the questionire and found a hundred benefits and i realized that was i will say, look. In bethesda likes you very much. And i have no problem helping people with existing programs and shouldnt be confusing, difficult or hard to find. The problem so many of us as people would qualify for them. So less of the country needs to be eligible for benefits, but those that are should have an easy path through a youtube site or whatever to get their benefits as long as its not everybody. Brenda now, toby, jonas has your lines now, but go ahead. I know, friends with benefit, knock, knock, hello. And the path to benefits, the way he said it, for him is sounds like, shld say the path to your entiements. Now, we have 55 f the people who are on, you know, some form already of wealth transfer in the united stat. If were on the path and think our debt is going down. People on medicare now, if you graduate 120,000 in 350,000 in berths. The difference between that, we borrow, and the 20 ways to qualify for 100, 200,000 medicare that you didnt pay in, that scares me. Brenda susan. You know, a lot of these problems can really be positioned as winwin. So, for instance, weatherizing, getting right. No, they are. If youre getting to weatherize your house and improve the Energy Efficiency to your home, you spend less money and helps the country because were using less energy. Why is that a Government Program . Cant necessarily afford it on their own. A lot of people have really old homes and cant afford to update now, were coming out of recession. Brenda gary b, go ahead. I wasshocked it always comes back to, susan, and toby asked the question, why is that the governments role . But beyond that, you know, you made thpoint, oh, this is going to help with the efficiency. Susan, come on, youve been involved with government and know how it works, none of the lousy programs people back there, only power base is growing their program. Maybe the programs will be combined and the budget wont double, it will quadruple. Nothings going away. Brenda i know, ive got to cut it off now. Thanks, everybody. Unions now trying to take their battle over michigans new right to work law to the ballot box. Someone here says thats the vote that could back fire on our entire job market. [ engine revs ] [ male announcer ] the mercedesbenz winter event is back, with the perfect vehicle thats just right for you, no matter which list youre on. [ santa ] ho, ho, ho, ho [ male announcer ] lease a 2013 c250 for 349 a month at your local mercedesbenz dealer. At your local excuse me, sir im gonna have to ask you to power down your little word game. I think your friends will understand. Oh no, its actually my geico app. See . I just uh paid my bill. Did you really . From the plane . Yeah, i can manage my policy, get roadside assistance, pretty much access geico 24 7. Sounds a little too good to be true sir. Ill believe that when pigs fly. Ok, did she seriously just say that . Geico. Just click away with our free mobile app. Unions still worked up over michigans new right to work law. Theyre trying to get it on the ballot on hope voters will shoot it down. Toby says that could have big repercussions everywhere. Shows 50 years, 10 years, 20 years, right to work states, do not have to Pay Union Dues to work at a company have outperformed in sales growth, job growth and Unemployment Rate and if you look at the vast example of michigan, lets put it towards indiana where they changed the law. Come on, man, the math does not add up and you know susan, your math is different. It definitely is. I would say mixed results at best. If you look at north carolina, georgia, these are really longterm decades old right to work states. They have some of the highest rates of unemployment right now and then youve got states like massachusetts and long being stronghold of unionism and workers, and theyve got one of the lowest right now. Its not about right to work, its not what people make it out to be. Brenda gary b, you see that bullet, dont you . I do. I suppose you can pick and choose your states, but the overall average of states with right toork laws is 10 lower unemploymenthan states that dont have it. Wages are a little bit higher in nonright to work states, but i think people at this point would rather have jobs for more than higher wages for a few. Brenda jonas, your impact on the unions getting on employment, basically. Its tough, because certain like new york have high union, and okay jobs. The kind of jobs the companies are losing and making if they have Natural Resources in the growth area, but largely speaking to garys point. Unions mean higher wages and higher unemployment. Removing them means lower unemployment, lower wages. Right now, the economy could use the jobs more than the higher wages and both in the real world. But frankly the wheels have left the barn, whatever, because theyre losing jobs in the state that are allowing you to pay unions and unless the whole country has the same rules its already going to happen. Brenda larry, unions are fighting hard because their membership has been declining dramatically, just 12 of the work force right now . Exactly right, brenda. This is about keeping and creating jobs in a state like michigan, highly skilled work force and theyve been bleeding jobs. And unions are big labor is big business in this country and a billion dollars a year on these elections and these are failed, failed policies and thats why the states are losing jobs. You know, instead, redirect those toward more productive uses within the labor force, training workers, keeping them in the work force and keeping them in the state and we dont need another recall like in wisconsin a complete waist of money and union dollars and thats why this is happening. Toby last word here . Were going to see its a big battle. But this is a battle that iff they win, they lose for the ate of michigan. Brenda okay. Thats the last word. Thank you all and thanks for joining us. So, you think coal is the worst Christmas Present ever . Not here on bulls and bears, why thats all you should want from santa this clear. Copd makes it hard to breathe, but with advair, im breathing better. So now i can be in the scene. Advair is clinically proven to help significantly improve lung function. Unlike most copd medications, advair contains both an antiinflammatory and a longacting bronchodilator working together to help improve your lung function all day. Advair wont replace fastacting inhalers for sudden symptoms and should not be used more than twice a day. People with copd taking advair may have a higher chance of pneumonia. Advair may increase your risk of osteoporosis and some eye problems. Tell your doctor if you have a heart condition or high Blood Pressure before taking advair. If youre still having difficulty breathing, ask your doctor if including advair could help improve your lung function. Get your first full prescription free and save on refills at advaircopd. Com. Predictions . And toby, youre up. The snow is coming andime to get toro out there, toro, toro, toro make snow blowers. Brenda larry bull or bear . Im a bear. I only like it on the pullck, great company, too expensive. Brenda gary b, your prediction. Speaking of pullbacks, i like the dow, i think the overreacted to the fiscal cliff, and 20 this time next year. Brenda jonas bull or bear. Not as bullish as that. Brenda larry, your