Transcripts For FBC Countdown To The Closing Bell 20130102 :

FBC Countdown To The Closing Bell January 2, 2013

Stand, Dow Jones Industrials, listen, at the highs of the session, up 245 points, now its 228 for the Dow Jones Industrials. Nasdaq better by 73, 2. 5 , a huge move for them, and s p 500 up nearly 2 . I want to quickly check dow numbers here, all dow stocks in the green now. In terms of breath, doesnt get better. All 30s higher. That translates to the rest of the market, broad participation in todays rally beginning with financials which were the big winner last year; right . Its the trade that keeps on giving, financials, top performers for 2012, and today, no different. Bank of america, up more than 100 last year, and its now tacking on another 3 at the moment, and, remember, the stock was 5 a year ago. 5, and now at 11. 95, and warren buffet butting putting in an investment, and jpmorgan up, and Goldman Sachs up 2. 25 . Cannot ignore apple which get into bear market territory last year, and everybody flipped out. Is that if for apple . No, jumping 3 at the moment, bouncing sharply, and you tack that on together, and its a good move. Hovering around 500 last thursday, see that now . 547 and change. Hp, my goodness, the company struggled last year, a fox business exclusive with whitman saying we are just partway into a long term recovery for the company. At the moment, better by nearly 5 , and money flowing into hp, stocks where you take the worst performance of 2012, buy them in 2013 because of the yield. Hp with a 4 dividend. Intel did not do well, and second half starting the year off on the right foot, and its better by 2. 75 . Whats not working today . Anybodys getting hit who is long volatility, getting crushed. The vix plunging at the moment. Double digit percentages here. Keep in mind, the fear index as its known, was north of 20 just five p months ago, and just a few days ago, looking where it is now, 15. 23. The fear gauge coming dramatically down based on the idea theres calm and order in washington. We had traders short on vix, going down more. Oil, gold, showed you, equities higher, but does this last . Lets get to the floor show, traders at the new york stock exchange, and looking at very nice volume, 30 above the onemonth average here. Happy new year, liz. Yes, its been a great show. Actually, performed better than i thought with the i thought early in the morning we would see the highs of the day. We did, but i thought wed come off more. The breath is softened from 18, 9to1 talking now, but, still, a great demonstration across the board led by the tech sector as you stated earlier, apple and hewlittpackard, chip stocks 5 and 6 today, a sparkling show there. Liz Home Builders looking good, and that stretches out a day like today, and you tell me, does what we see today portend what we might see for the rest of the year . Now im asking a ridiculous question because nobody has a crystal ball, but come on, i can go for it. Go for it. I have no problem with it. From a traders perspective, im not a professional on this side of the equation, but im concerned about the Home Builders and that side of the market. Look at where theyve come from, they put in a great performance already. Some of the market leaders liz so have the financials, you know . The same case. The financials beaten up worse than Home Builders; yet, one of the Top Performing stocks in the group, kb homes, so when you have Home Builders going into a renegotiating of the tax structure, i have to worry about Million Dollar homes and who will buy them. Mines antedoal. A friend in real estate in the midwest, and big homes do not sell. Its the small ones right now. Liz okay. Does todays hot temperature last for equities throughout the rest of the year . Can you foresee that . Does it set the trend . Well, i have trouble seeing to tomorrow as you can imagine being a futures market trader. Liz yeah. However, the next six months, a battle for 60 days as we tie debt ceiling to the sequester cuts. Were going to see that, and that is a good thing because somewhere along the line, were going to get spending cuts in. Were going to have to raise the debt ceiling, and were going to balance this income side of the equation we got. As i said to you before, i think the First Six Months of this year are powerful. I like how we came out of the gate. I would expect to get breaks, and, especially, fill the gaps with some of the indexes today over the next week to two weeks. That would not be a surprise to me, and the arguments about, hey, what do you do about spending cuts and so on . Folks, the spending cuts are coming. The republicans now have a chance to regroup. They did they voted to lower taxes, not raise them. Thats a powerful element so i am looking for a big change here. The spending cuts, believe it or not, when they come, its bullish as well. Liz i think youre rights. We have to take the medicine. There is something happening ii the Energy Market that could, i guess, mike, if it continues, affect equities, and thats naval exercises by the iranians in the gulf in the middle east, and it makes you wonder, as we see oil moving higher, this is not just, oh, the economys going to do better because people have tax cuts. This is action in the middle east, and it could be worry worry smit and negative. Absolutely, liz, negative in that well go higher, seems that way, and were above the 91 and a quarter level, looks good. Everyones positive out there, but im not positive in general. Theres arguments Going Forward in washington, battles set up, but it was a good start, the stock market, and that, you know, fell over into the crude ring, and that middle east, you know, situation you have that. You always have tensions over there. Going forward for the year, i think, you know, i was very bearish looking at 80 at the bottom. It might be bringing that up a little bit. You know, looks good out there now, maybe 85, but i think 100 is not out of the question this year in crude. Liz i dont want to hear that. Happy new year, thanks a lot. Happy new year. Liz thanks, great to see you on the floor show. Thanks. Liz hardly the thousand point rally market traders promised if there was a deal. No doubt they took off for the skies today. Is this a signal to load up the port foal portfolio, or could a rally mark the time to sell . Joining us from boston, bill, chief Market Strategist at bell curve trading. All right. We love you because you give us these levels of buy here, sell there. Were looking at a very strong s p today, bill. What would you do . Liz, i game plan really has not changed. The beginning of 2013 is more than a range for the First Quarter and into the Second Quarter as well. No question, we dodged a bullet yesterday with the fiscal cliff negotiations, but, remember, as we get into midfebruary, we are going to run up against the debt ceiling so theres still a number of obstacles or hurdles that we have to clear. Thats just the u. S. Take that to europe. I mean, europe seems to have stabilized over the last several months, but europe is no means out of the woods. Liz true. I have to jump in. Looking at s p range, bill, and you see it could go from 1320, that is the thats the floor there, to 1500, okay . Right. Tell people out there who want to trade this and ride this momentum wave buying and selling at the right time, how they should do that. Well, i think what you want to do right now, liz, is take advantage of the rally. As i said, when we spoke in december, as you get closer to 1500, i want to be reducing my equity exposure, not adding to it so i would take advantage of this rally. If you look historically, every time the s p has got close to 1500, whether it be the major peak in 2000, the major peak in 2007, which had major pullbacks from the levels, at least on the first approach up here, i think its a great opportunity for people watching the show to take chips off the table, reduce their equity exposure a little bit, and i think youll definitely have a better time to reload later in the year. Liz that is three opportunities where you could have bought low, sold high, bought low, sold high, and the levels almost identical there. The dow, at 13341 at the moment. What bam do you see for the dow . I think youre going to push it, liz, on the upside to 13 500 or 13600. But the s p, close to the upper end of the range, nasdaq, 100, as high as 2800 or 2850, but the point is that i think at least for the next three to six months this will be much more of a range game. Take advantage of the big rallies. Take profit. Reduce equity exposure getting closer to the big levels. Liz but the fed put in a huge down body pillow, okay . With the qe3, 4, 12, whatever. They put its like the infomeciasls with the body pillow where you get come my. Will we see those kinds of ranges . Look, as i said, i still think theres if you look at the major drivers of Global Economic growth, you asked still major question marks on the recovery. Europe, again, stabilized, but by no means out of the woods, and, china, the other major driver, depending upon how the u. S. And europes recovery evolved, thats going to have a big impact on china. You have the major drivers of Global Economic growth with significant question marks, and so that sets up this back and forth range game until you have more clarity on how the drivers are doing. Liz last time you were here on december 66th, you are a bearish call on gold. Where do you stand on gold . Wheres it go . Viewers have a certain portion of that in their portfolio. Yeah, last i spoke, liz, i said sell gold futures, 17151730, and look through, take the profit all the way down to 16401630. That call, right on the money. The market toppedded out at 1725 and gold futures traded down to the 1640 and 1630 area, and then we turned around, had clients turn around get long there. What i wanted to do now is take profit on long positions in front of 1700, and i think anywhere from, really, 1700 up to 1715, i want to reset the short positions in gold. Liz what do you do, bill, so requires discipline and removing emotion out of it. How do you do that . Well, you know, we have our own propriority methodology giving us a good sense of, you know, these major support and resistance level, and we just basically stick to that. I think in an environment like this where theres still a lot of headline risk, not just coming out of the u. S. , but also coming out of europe, you have to be disciplined about what you do. We try not to get caught in the middle of chase headlines, map out the buy and sell levels and play on the whys. Liz bill, i bet your chloric intake is down to the actual calorie every day; right . Something like that, sure. Liz youre so displained. Happy new year. Happy new year, liz. Chief strategist at bell curve. Listen to him. Making great calls every time. Closing bell ringing in 48 minutes. Now that congress got something done finally, whats that mean for you and your money . Stretching out your 2013. Thats what we are looking at. Thats the theme, breaking down one of the upper income brackets, and what kind of taxes they will see. What kind of itemized deductions are they allowed . You name it, we have the answers for the upper income folks, and, plus, Corporate America on the debt ceiling. A ceo who fast tracked dividends payouts because he was so nervous about december 31st coming and what the taxes might have been. How he feels now, how he feels about the housing market, and are confident consumers buying things to fill houses with his products . Uncertainty. Ceo of ethan allen sizing up the impact on hiring, spending, and whether the fast tracking was the right move. Its a fox business exclusive. A russell 2000, nicole, at record highs for the small and mid capped, and sandra at the america tile exchange, a big day. Starting with nicole. It is, and im glad you brought up the russell because russell and transports are two areas, liz that people do not focus on, seeing the dow, the s p, clearly higher, but as you noted, small caps doing well, and i wanted to look here at retail names like starting with the blue box. Tiffany and company. First tiffany and company is the first one we look at. They are renewing their license, and they are familiar with the products and such so its a new 20year deal, a material deposit according to the analysts, a 2. 5 gain costing 47 million up front, but the overall consensus, its a good move for tiffany. Deckers, familiar with decker . Familiar with ugg products, its under 3. 4 . You have analysts defending deckers and talking positively saying the sales reported saying they got the boots were less worth than anticipated. Is that good . Its not bad as it could have been, liz, but you get the point. Its positive. Liz it was invented a year ago after all the flash crash insanity and europe and all the problems. I will say this, though, there is a belief, and sandra, you can weigh in on this, you look at the retailers too, that retailers could be hit because of the payroll tax. Its no longer the cusp there, and people have smaller paychecks, will they not, sandra . Its interesting, liz, its playing out across the board and affecting commodities, but, certainly, the majority of income earning americans in the country are paying higher taxes. They spend less, and so there is that fear of owning the retail stocks, and, liz, ill tie grains into that too. Not a compelling story, demand story for grain prices if youve got folks paying paychecks to the federal government. Theres a cig decline in grain prices in chicago. Wheat, soybeans, corn, all the graining tumbling. Some of the worst performers at the cme today. Watching wheat prices a six month low, and soybeans a six week low in todays session, and, also, corn, hovering at p seven bucks a bushel down more than a full percent. By the way, liz, the grains were super performers in 2012. Wheat prices were up 19 in 2012. Not so much the case today. We are seeing a reversal in the trends. Liz, tie that fear of all folks paying more out of the paycheck to the federal government, not just to the retailers, but the food prices here in chicago as well. Liz fun while it lasted. Thank you, sandra, very much. Sandra, thank you. Are you ready to see how the last minute fiscal cliff deal affects your paycheck . All day long, peter barnes breaking down the effect on all levels, and, peter, at this hour, finding out about the upper income folks and how they will be affected . Thats right, liz. Taxes hit taxpayers this year including from this weeks tax bill, looking at the impact for different brackets, and this hour, up to Household Incomes of 500,000 to a million. Theres about half a million households filing returns at this level. The big change this week that will affect them was the restoration of the top marginal tax rate of 39. 6 from the clinton era from individuals making more than 400,000 a year, families at 450,000. They fall into that category. They will also see rates on Capital Gains and dividends rise to 20 from 15 unrelated to this weeks tax legislation is a new tax under the president S Health Care reform law that we talked about, a 3. 8 medicare surcharge on Investment Income for individuals making more than 200,000 a year. Families making more than 250,000. The tax that hits all taxpayers, lower income as well as upper, is the expiration of the payroll pax cuts from the last two years. Add all of this up for households earning 500,000 to a million a year, and according to the tax policy center, their taxes are up by an average of 14800 this year, liz. Liz great. Okay. Listen, it is what it is. Its a quote from britney speers. Wait until we get to the Million Dollar bracket. Liz well watch that too. Listen, we love all the tax bracket viewers, doing it all day long, and good for you for at least bringing the exact numbers. Peters done the homework and numbers crunching. Stay tuned every hour. Thank you, peter, appreciate it. Thank you. Liz ceos putting the vice grips on washington, at least verbally to get the economy back on track starting with the cliff so now that weve got a deal, is it a deal that will help them . What do the ceos have to say, particularly the ones to my right, my left . Okay, to the right. Im opposite on tv. Who fast tracked dividends out of fear of what might a happen after the first of the year. Joining me in a fox business exclusive is one of the ceos, the ceo of ethan allen, chairman and president as well, and you had issued a special dividend of 41 cents and a nine cent dividend that was supposed to be in january, pushed up that to the 20th of december if i remember correctly as many did. Is that in hindsight the correct decision to have made . Yes, liz, good to be on your program, and i wish i was there in new york, but at least its good im specking from connecticut. Liz i understand. Well, i tell you this, first of all, im glad the rate increase went from 15 to 20 . I think it is important to keep the rate on dividends and Capital Gains at a lower level because you want to encourage companies to give dividends, in my view. Liz of course, yeah. We paid a total of 14 million in december, 12 million to the special dividend from about 1 100 million we have in cash. If we borrowed or jeopardized the cash position in giving the dividend, i would have been concerned. I think what we did was right. It was not a measure reallitively a measure amount, and i think our stockholders are happy we did it. Liz farooq, stand by, taking a commercial break, many questions on how it affects your business. Well be right back with farooq from ethan allen. [ male announcer ] where do you turn for legal matters . At legalzoom, weve created a better place to handle your legal needs. Maybe you have questions about incorporating a business youd like to start. Or questions about protecting your family with a will or living trust. And youd like to find the right attorney to help guide you along, answer any questions and offer advice. With an a rating from the Better Business bureau legalzoom helps you get personalized and affordable legal protection. In most states, a legal plan attorney is available with every personalized document to answer any questns. Get started at legalzoom. Com today. And now youre protected. Liz we have breaking news on the sandy bill. While it appeared they would not be voting on the 60 billion bill, a piece of it, strange, but a piece of it will be voted upon. The 9 billion federal Flood Insuranc

© 2025 Vimarsana