Transcripts For FBC Countdown To The Closing Bell 20130201 :

FBC Countdown To The Closing Bell February 1, 2013

[ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ]. Youll bust your brain box. All onhinkorswim from td ameritrade. Liz large and in charge, the bulls taking the dow to its highest level in more than five years. Breaking 14,000. Can it stay there for the next hour . Leave the shot there for a second, yeah, were just one point below here. Good afternoon everybody. Im liz claman. It is the last hour of trading. Countdown to the closing bell begins right now. Will we see a super close going into Super Bowl Weekend . Look, either way, stocks ending the week with a touchdown. Stunning traders earlier in the session by charging past dow 14,000. The dow less than 200 points away from the all time closing high of 14,164 and for those of you. 53. That level goes back to october 9, 07. Incredibly strong, green arrows practically everywhere except merck and exxonmobile. The drug giant for its part down more than 2 . Quarterly earnings beat street estimates but sales disappointing for investors. That one is in the red. In terms of the dow jones industrials, you have the banks leading the pack. Bank of america, nice move, 3 1 2 . Jpmorgan 1 3 4. You have verizon, at t, microsoft not bad at all. Verizon got an upgrade by piper jaffray, going to outperform from neutral. At t up 2 percentage points. Microsoft is up 1 3 4 . What is fuelling the gains . A whole bunch of things folks. By the way the small cap russell 2,000 at a new high as well. Part of it tactical. Fund managers as we know have to take some of the cash that has come in and they have to put it to work specifically in the market depending on their mandate. That typically happens in the first few days of a brand new month which is what we have. But also helping the bull case, some economic data, Manufacturing Activity picking up last month. The ism Manufacturing Index rose to 53. 1 in january. Up from 50 in december. Remember, any reading above 50 equals expansion. Thats always a good thing. Consumers started also feeling better about a few things. We got the confidence rising last month in the form of university of Michigan Sentiment index. That came in at 73. 8. Economists were looking for a drop, so not only was it an upside surprise, they expected a drop there, didnt get it, not bad. And then guys as we bring in our floor show here, two upward revisions, november and december that came in with the january jobs report, close enough, lets bring in the floor show traders. They are hiding. Here they are on your screen. Keith, will we stay here and will we close above 14,000 and i know it is just a number. Got to always say that; right . A number and an important number. I like you added the 53 cents in on the alltime high. That is important. We are at an incredible point right now. I could make a bull case, a bear case. I know a lot of technicians that say theres no reason we wont get up to 1550, 1560 but by the same token, there are a lot of people looking at the broken down aspects of intermarket relationships. Theres correction in the air. Heres where i am today. We met pretty strong resistance at 1514 on the s p. Im going to reevaluate over the weekend. We have a pretty light Economic Calendar next week. We rallied up here pretty well this week. And remember, were up 12. 8 from the november lows. Might be a good time to take a pause and see where were going to go from here. Liz let me get to kevin. You tell me if this is something where we pass it and then all of a sudden people wake up and say we had a great 2012. We had a fantastic january. At some point there has to be that pause that refreshes some type of correction ive heard everything from 4 to 7 to 10 . Will people wake up and say this is too much too fast . Absolutely. Weve come really far really fast. I think my biggest concern is we move into february and really up through april is the debt ceiling and what congress is going to do about that. And particularly, one number that was interesting this week was personal income and spending. It was a great number, but when you look forward, my concern is the new tax policies that are in place. And that amount of money may not be in consumers pockets going forward. So its been a great rally here in january. But i look for a pullback and i think we could see a 5 pullback when you look at Interest Rates hovering around 200 basis points, cant really pop any higher than that from a yield standpoint. I agree a correction is in the air and it is something we have to take a little pause, see where were at and where we may go going forward. Liz yeah, i mean, we cant ignore the fact i want to check it because it changes moment by moment but the vix just at 13, straddling there . I mean alan you are looking at an energy and commodities picture over there. But when there is very little fear, and rising stocks, rising commodities, and a falling volatility index that just looks i mean were showing intraday here, which is a little useless, you know, weve spread it out and you can see especially if we took a two year or one year, you can see how far weve fallen. Does that become disconcerting or do you still say 100 is the next weigh station like our guest did yesterday . We are in overbought territory for crude oil. However, we get a settlement above 98, i do think we get to 100 to 102 dollar level. What im seeing right now is were starting to get some more rhetoric out of the middle east and some more issues out of the middle east. That might give the boost that the market would need to get it over 98. I do think it is oversupplied. If we dont start to get some of that and dont get settlement above 98, down we go. Liz hes looking at settlement above 98. Were looking at settlement above 14,000 at the moment. Keith, do we close above or at 14,000 today . I think were going to close a little above 14,000. Theres a lot of money chasing these equity returns right now. The fed wanted us to do that. We have seen a last couple of sessions buyers come in at the close, i think we will see that today. I think we close above 14,000. Theres a lot of momentum in the equity market. I think we push above there today off this jobs report. Liz alan, how about you . I do think we close above 14,000. I think we get a little bit higher and then we have a pullback. Liz alan is sitting there wondering why didnt she ask me about heating oil . The distillates. Have a great weekend, good to see you all. Thank you. Liz certain media stocks have been doing beautifully the entire year. Earlier this week and this is what got us thinking about this, Mario Gabelli told us about his best performing fund, the Gabelli Multimedia trust. So we pointed it out. Its up 25 over the past year. So impressive so we said lets bring in the portfolio manager. One of them is joining me now in a fox business exclusive. While everybody is talking about the month of january, you have been doing beautifully for the entire year. Well, actually its been from the bottom of the market, liz. Were up i think about 24 compound from in the last four years, and whats happened is were lucky. Which beats being smart. We invest in great industries, technology is basically causing people to consume more media. The companies are figures out a way to are figuring out a way to collect revenues from this, valuations are reasonable, cash flow is there. Companies have been responsible allocaters of capital, almost a perfect storm on the positive side. Liz what you just articulated to me is extremely important because you said were just buying Good Companies and being lucky is being smart. Its not hard to do. When you look at a company through good times and bad, these companies have done beautifully, but lets pull out some of your best and your favorites and your widely helds here. And among them, some of them to me are very interesting because youve got some gamers in here. And that is a particular play on the asian gaming picture. Is this just a macau story once again . Its asia in general, macau, singapore, vietnam is going to open up, the philippines are going to open up. We think at some point gaming is going to take place in japan. The folks in asia just have an incredible to gaming. The planners in macau got it right and the planners in singapore got it right. They had different ambitions but they have arranged for the intelligent expansion of gaming. It is nonpolluting industry. Its helped the tourism industry. Led to phenomenal increases in employment. The gdp of macau since gaming has been over 12 compound. Liz isnt this an industry that depends very much in part on the high rollers and this would then depend on the economies of some of these emerging markets remaining stable and growing of course . Well, there are two forms. Theres the high rollers and the mass market. And the mass market is pretty high end. You go into these casinos at nighttime, and its very hard to find a table under 25. These people like tables. They dont like to play slots. Liz i have to ask, you go there and you look at each of these and you watch the action there, like the james bond movie . Yeah, i think ive lost my last nine games. Very hard to do that. Liz i wont even play the penny slots, forget it. When you were looking because you have been so cautious and so smart with a little luck thrown in, when youre looking to commit money to a certain stock to put in the fund, what are the things you look for . We look for basically businesses that grow, especially businesses liz thats quite simple actually. Businesses that generate cash. We like the cash to come out sometime or another. A good example of a business we dont like is amazon. Cash never comes out of the bottom of the spigot. If you look at a macau as an example, the government said there are going to be six concessionaries. Thats an absolute barrier to entry. Liz how did you know for example im not just bringing this up, im bringing it up because it is a strong stock, thats news corp. , the parent of our network, along with directv and time warner which owns cnn so were being fair and balanced. How did you know . What you got in both of these companies and for Different Reasons was responsible capital allocation. For time warner, first thing jeff did when we came in was make a bad acquisition, 750 Million Dollars, almost instantaneously down the drain. Since then no bad acquisitions. A lot of share repurchases. Big help from technology and things like hbo go. And the combination slow and steady cash flow growth, tremendous Free Cash Flow generation, purchasing the stock, raising the dividend, just a wonderful recipe if youre the owner of the business. Liz now heres a call youre making. You believe, everybody listening, apple, all you apple lovers and faithful, that the stock price has the potential to double. In what time frame and what would get it there well i think what gets it there is really easy and the time frame is harder because you dont know when it is going to come. But it is basically responsible capital allocation. Theres 137 billion by now a month into the next quarter theres easily 140 billion of cash there. Its the shareholders cash. It is not managements. Its not the boards. One way or another, it has to come back to the shareholders. When that happens and if they start running their business like john malone and most of his Industries Run his business, like time warner did, like news corp. Is running it right now, the stock is going to go from a 5 multiple which is way way low for a company of apples business quality to if you give me a time warner multiple a double in the stock price. Liz that would be 900 at this point, around then. So he believes everybody listen here it could go to 900 if they put that cash to work. What they are forced to quickly through a shareholder lawsuit, where they are saying what are you doing with all this money . You are not acquiring companies . I was just astonished that there was no special dividend in the Fourth Quarter. Got special dividends from wynn and Las Vegas Sands and a lot of other companies and apple was the most logical and we didnt get it. I dont know what the board is thinking. Maybe they will be pressured by someone in court, who knows. Liz or you larry. Good to see you. Thanks a lot. Liz love having you. Larry haverty, portfolio manager. Closing bell ringing in 48 make that 47 minutes. Manitowoc at the heart of the u. S. Made in America Industrial economy making cranes, equipment for restaurants, right now business is looking good. But which part . It may surprise you. Quarterly revenue jumping 10 . Manitowoc ceo, fox business exclusive, telling us whether the economy is gaining ahead of steam, regardless, his company is doing very well. Again a fox business exclusive. Hes only talking to you and us. First though super bowl xlvii, forget the game; right . It is all about the commercials, but no matter who wins, niners or ravens, some Technology Companies will shine. Which ones . Were going to talk about that when the closing bell returns. Twins. I didnt see them coming. I have obligations. Cute obligations, but obligations. I need to rethink the core of my portfolio. What i really need is sleep. Introducing the ishares core, Building Blocks for the heart of your portfolio. Find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. Ishares by blackrock. 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If you look at the one year chart, you could see it was just starting to make its way up here, to the 52 week high, and then to the far right of the screen, the big plummet today. Horrible. Analysts hated it. Imperial capital slashing lifetimes rating and price target. This is now a 39 stock at the moment. Investors are filling up on tyson food. The stock rising to a new high today, ahead of sundays big game. Lets head over to Nicole Petallides on the floor of the new york stock exchange. Nicole i love how were talking about chicken again; right . Two days in a row. Lets take a look at whats going on with tyson, liz. As we are seeing the stock up over 3 . We can call this a 52 week high, but if you chart it out, it really goes back to the summer of 2007. These are really five year highs here for tyson foods. They came out with their quarterly report. Theres a couple of factors in this. You know, its a sluggish economy, they are not really seeing the demand, their sales volume actually dropped 10 . However, they had to raise their prices on their meat and their beef and their chicken because it costs more to feed the animals because of the drought. They have paid more to feed the animals. They have had to raise the prices. This is how they were able to come out with profit that beat the street and have these margins that helped the stock along today, to move it to the five year highs. Back to you. Liz nicole thank you. One company is hoping that super bowl viewers increase their appetite, for new ways to get in on the action of the game, net app is the official data storage provider of the nfl and is rolling out new feature sunday. Fox businesss Shibani Joshi spoke to the vice chair of net app. Shibani net app is ensuring that all this tremendous amount of data, the feed on your television screen, even the Communications Inside the actual stadium, every single detail actually ends up data that needs to be managed. The nfl decided to team up with net app and i spoke to the vice chairman earlier this morning. He said they have been testing like crazy the last 30 days because you dont want anything to go wrong with this. They are testing on a lot of different fronts. I mean everything from communications to photographs to even security is being used and evaluated right now by net liz speaking of pictures, look at what we have got here. Closing bell ringing in 39 minutes. Shares of manitowoc hitting 52 week high after reporting better than expected Fourth Quarter earnings. Coming up the chairman and ceo of manitowoc will join me in a fox business exclusive. I will ask him the other ways the company is manufacturing profits. You dont want to miss that. Theres a gorgeous stock chart. And, yeah, as we mentioned, the picture. Thats right. Hes not in the super bowl, but you know what . He was nice enough to show me how to hold a football. Although i got it wrong. Thats when we got to meet tim tebow. train horn vo wherever our trains go, the economy comes to life. Norfolk southern. One line, infinite possibilities. Liz heres your fox Business Market check. So the s p 500 will end in positive territory as it stan

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