Transcripts For FBC Countdown To The Closing Bell With Liz C

FBC Countdown To The Closing Bell With Liz Claman September 21, 2016

The lower bound is concerned. We have a less scope. It would be worthwhile because thats an important way in which they cushion the shocks to the economy. Without getting into specifics that there were ways in which the fiscal policy shifts in the economy could be strengthened with which what help take some burden off of Monetary Policy. They cited it as a reason they were reluctant to raise rates in june. I have not heard anything that they might want to delay raising rates in november. Can you explain why they regard that as a greater problem. There were three dissents atthin what the cause of disagreement was and what does policy policymakers thought. We are very focused on evaluated giving the way the economy is operating i am not going to get into politics. Those are factors that we dont consider and im not going to get involved in commenting on the election. If we continue on the current path with something that you would need to remove over time. There is general agreement because of participants on that. What is the right timing. We have active discussions. And it represents a judgment on the part of some of my colleagues that it is important to begin that process now. There are risks in waiting too long to remove accommodations and we need to take a forwardlooking approach making policy of where the economy is heading. And taking account to the risks and there were two particular risks that we need to think about and balance. One is the risk that the economy runs too hot that the labor market tightens too much the unemployment falls into a very low level that we need to tighten policy in a less gradual way than with would be ideal. It is very difficult thing to accomplish to gently create a bit more slack in the labor markets. We could cause a recession and the process it something we certainly wouldnt want to be responsible for we would all like to have a very long expansion with the labor market operating well for many years. That we could create Downside Risk it is something we would like to avoid. It might be essential to avoiding that. Inflation is below the 2 objective. We make sure that we get back to 2 and i have routinely a number of expectations that are running at the low range of their historical range. It would also be risk from not seen infliction move back to the objective. And exactly how to balance these two risks which is more serious can it affect the magnitude. At a time when the public is losing faith did they discuss the importance of today to dispel the thinking is not politically compromised. We dont discuss politics and our meetings. I cant recall any meeting that i have ever attended where politics has been a matter of discussion. I think the public if they had been watching our meeting on tv today would have the deep intellectual delete. And to come out of the balance. To act responsibly and that is my commitment to the American People. It is an institution that is not political and that we are striving to do our very best to pursue the goals that congress has assigned to us which are important once. Does it concern you for what donald trump is said about the Federal Reserve that he could go back and look at the minutes and look for signs of the that thats been politically motivated. I have no concern that the fed is politically motivated. It is important that we maintain the confidence. Everybody may not agree with them but i hope the public well understand that we are striving to do our best to pursue the goals that you matter to all of us. Are you worried the bubbles can form in the economy we were to meet monitor its only something one can tell and the valuations are high but still valuation. We it its something we have discussed. We are in the supervision with the banks as i indicated. To make sure that underwriting standards are found on these loans. Its something that we work at with the stress test. Of what happened to the political positions. And of course i think the state of the Banking System has improved substantially. We are focused on such things. A quick question on regulation. The scandal at wells fargo. I note that there are other regulators that have looked into this. You are also a regulator of wells fargo. Have you opened this. Risk management and corporate governance. Are you looking at them broadly across the Banking System right now . So in this is specific case it took place in the national bank. They have responsibility there. And on the consumer side it is the we work cooperatively and closely with those organizations and in terms of our overall supervisory responsibility for wealth walls and other large banking organizations we are very focused and this will be a particular focus of our supervision Going Forward over the next year or so on the compliance environment to make sure the board of directors we had been distressed to see banking organizations responding with a particular and what we would really want to see is robust procedures that ensure the employees are always in the legal and ethical manner. The washington post. Maybe the most serious discussions about the last several decades. If they were to be that as a political issue. John with american banker. Back to the question about wells fargo. One of the concerns that has been raised that this scandal has raised is that the bank itself said it does not know what was happening. There are thousands of employees involved in this. Do you think that leaving aside the question of walls specifically that the best prudential prudential step would be to break it up. So we have High Expectations for what we expect to be in place. Any banking organization. We expect there to be robust systems of Risk Management strong audit functions it is monitoring and supervising and Holding Senior management accountable for things that happened throughout the organization they may be challenging. At this point just because an organization is large and cant live up to the standards. And those are expectations we intend to hold banking organizations responsible for putting in place that kind of Risk Management and compliance environment im not endorsing a general conclusion that banks of that size are too big to manage i believe they can be may be challenging in that so we expect thank you. I have a question about the rate trajectory that they outline today. There is clearly a wide range. Three quarters of a point in 200018. They bring us to two and half to two and half in the long run. At the same time the median forecast is 2 for the next two years and 1. 8 thereafter. I should add that the most optimistic is of all of that projections outlined here. If Economic Growth is gonna be that slow for that long where will the inflationary of 250 basis points. If notnflation is there another explanation. The projections for growth are slow. We have further written down our estimate of the longer run normal it will pick up from the miserable half over the last five years. Now, why we would do that. Slow growth is a factor slow productivity growth is a factor that influences the longer run normal you can write down the productivity growth. One factor that is responsible that is an important reason for revising down the neutral rate. Lets go to the part of your question about inflation. We have a labor market that generated an average of about 230,000 jobs a month. And so far this year has been generating about a hundred thousand jobs a month and thats a very solid pace of job growth and a pace that likely is not sustainable in the long run it is certainly sustainable for some for the amount of time. That tightness in the labor market. And resource utilization and the sad fact is that we are getting that healthy pace of job Market Growth with very slow growth in output. I dont think it bears on the inflation outlook. And has prompted a downward shift is a huge concern. Back to wells fargo. Obviously this was more of a Consumer Finance kind of a question but im wondering if you think it does pose other questions if its widespread across a big bank and you had mentioned this is gonna be a supervisory focus over the coming years. Are there any adjustments that you can speak to that might be warranted given this information. As i mentioned we are good to be focusing on compliance Risk Management and board oversight not only at walls but also across bank holding companies. The abuses of consumers that we saw in sub prime lending ultimately did become safety and sound issues we need to have a concern and we will focus there. I cant really give you specifics be on that a large number of democrats would like bankers removed from the board they would like to see the private ownership that they would be brought i want to know what you thought of those two proposals they did set up in the Federal Reserve act and then serving on the boards of directors. Inside the Federal Reserve when we are charged supervision of banks those conflicts of interest are not allowed. That they are not allowed only the class pnc so, i want to make sure that the public has confidence that in spite of the fact that we do have this banker involvement in our boards of directors is not giving rise to any conflicts in the policy. That set up if it is changed it raises questions it raises conflict issues. In the reserve bank. And i would simply caution if that is looked at it is entitled to do they think through carefully. You mentioned in the previous answer and need to be forwardlooking. He also pointed to the economy not overheating as a reason you could hold off on raising rates at this one. Monetary policy. Do you think this timeline has changed since the financial crisis or due to the use of unconventional tools that they use and how does that factor into your decisionmaking. That statement is due to milton friedman. It is one of the essential things to understand about Monetary Policy and is not fundamentally changed at all. That is why i believe we have to be forwardoking and im not in favor of the whites of their eyes approach. We need to operate based on forecast. They have changed a lot. History doesnt always replace itself. Inflation can pick up to the highly undesirable levels. The consequence of that could be that the higher inflation takes place its very costly to reduce and absolutely none of us want to relive an episode like that and so i believe that it is important to be forwardlooking. When i can make that mistake again. But the structure changes. It has changed significantly since the bad days of the 70s when the fed have to face we have seen inflation respond less to the economy to movements in the Unemployment Rate that sometimes said the rate is a flatter. Thats something we need to factor in to our decisionmaking. And perhaps that has been the result of a long. Of low and stable inflation it is something that we did not had in the 1970s and in addition we have to be attentive to the fact that we now have a long time frame when inflation is there. We see some signs i would conclude that the wouldbe would be well anchored at 2 . There could be possible a possible slippage there. We are a long way from facing the problems that japan faces but they also we always had a reminder to us that we also would not want to find ourselves where inflation is chronically running below our objective. And with the lowest neutral rate that becomes more important. Things are changed but the principle of forwardlooking is there. You just mentioned that that Major Program problems one of the solutions that has been proposed widely as better is better job skills. Many economists say that some workers are standing on the sidelines because they lack new job skills. They dont have the authority to finance or run its own jobtraining program but would you want that authority from congress and is it at all frustrating that you know one of the solutions to fixing a major issue in the economy but you cant take the concrete steps to solving the issue. I do think job training and job skills are important and we do work in Community Development trying to in the local communities where the reserve banks operate to try to foster broader understanding of what kind of programs work and how Community Organizations and state and local governments can put in place programs that will be helpful. I recently visited a program that was very impressive in philadelphia. I visited some in chicago and other places i do believe its possible to design programs that will help people overcome obstacles in getting jobs that are available but i definitely think while we can play some role in facilitating an understanding of what works and what doesnt work that can be helpful its certainly worthwhile for policymakers at the federal level with state and local levels to be focusing on this because i think its an area that would be helpful in making progress so i think we have seen some modest pickup in wage growth. Its running a little bit higher than it was over the last two years by a number of important measures. And we have seen Income Growth pick up recently. I think the census report was encouraging. Showing that there are income gains both because of more jobs and higher paying jobs. It is helping many families. We expect the Unemployment Rate to decline further. We expect labor Market Conditions to improve. My hope and expectation we will see some further pickup in wage growth and that it will be broadly beneficial to american households. Thank you. Liz janet yellen wrapping it up here. No change and still waiting but the Federal Reserve chair made it pretty clear one increase this year will be quote, appropriate. I dont know if you believe that. A lot of people dont right now. She just wrapped up this News Conference by was more than a half hour long in d. C. The fed held its fire leaving rates unchanged but yellen said the case for an increase has strengthened. We heard that before. This time her cohorts decided to wait for further evidence. At this rate well wait forever. She said the it does not show a lack of confidence in the economist. She sees labor market increasing and next meeting is november 1st, seven days before the election. Yellen said, it is still considered a live meeting, meaning there may be a chance for a hike but it is really december people are looking at. Of course there is 59 chance at the second but that may change. Wall street loves it all. Look at markets for the moment. Nasdaq in particular hit a lifetime intraday high. It is currently on track for a record close. Look at the dow. It spiked right after the decision was announced. We can look at the intraday on the dow in particular. Decision was announced 2 00 p. M. Eastern. Moderated a bit. Started to hit sessions highs and went further specifically, i thought this was interesting, where she said we do risk being late on this and we dont want to risk an overheated economy. I dont think there is a risk of that at least at the moment. Look at prices on the ten year treasurys notes. The yield falling, 1. 66 . The u. S. Dollar was already down this morning when the bank of japan shifted how its going to move forward when it comes to stimulus, because stimulus stopped working there decades ago. That is turning lower following the announcement. Dollar trading off session lows. Look at the dollar for a second. Look at it here. Versus u. S. Dollar, major currencyies higher versus the greenback. Most pronounced move, gold bass flat. It jumped. Right now. Were up 17. 90. That is good for 1 1 3 gain. Gold mining stocks surged across the board. Barrick gold, these are all up seven, 8 . Oil hitting one week high. Had very little to do with the fed t highs after a surprise drop in weekly inventorieses. Inventories fell 1. 2 million barrels. That is a pretty significant drop. It is up a buck 45 at 45. 51. Yellen said, one rate hike this year. Put odds of that happening now near 60 . All this fed talk did not force us to take eye off the few other balls flying in d. C. Wells fargo is falling 1 and 3 . John stumpf officially received an invitation to testify in front of the House Financial Services committee. With knew they wanted him there. We heard that from jeb hands zarlink the chairman. Committee. The hearing is scheduled for september 29th. This following the Senate Banking hearing yesterday where trump apologized but still continued to get hammered. Lets take it to d. C. Right now. This is another house hearing. That is heather bresch, ceo of mylan, reading her statement defending the price hike, some called them pricegouging, of the lifesaving epipen. Were expecting a pretty lively q a session. Well keep our eye on that at the moment. Mylans stock has been hammered since the scandal began right before back to school time. Today it is up about 1 1 2 . Heather bresch said she is very frustrated by the price hikes. A lot of people question that frustration considering it really helped her compensation go from 2 million a year up to about 18 million currently. Lets get back to the fed. Well bring in the allstar lineup. Lori rothman on floor of new york stock exchange. S ps erin gibbs and Steven Whiting are in the batters box. Lets get right to it. We have jon hilsenrath. You were in the room. Let me get to you first. You asked an interesting question, after four other questions about how the fed appears to be looking rather political. The whole thing in advance of the election. What jumped out at you here with janet yellen . Well, she certainly got a lot of questions about politics today. I think that is inevitable. We have an election coming up and donald trump, the republican nominee, has politicized the fed by calling out janet yellen and saying that she is trying to support the Obama Administration with low Interest Rates. I asked her to respond to that. She said emphatically that the fed doesnt even talk about politics at its meetings. And she also liz do you believe that . You know, i think these are very technocratic individuals. I think they try to filter out politics as much as they can but the second pa

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