Transcripts For FBC FOX Business After The Bell 20121218 : v

FBC FOX Business After The Bell December 18, 2012

At one point, but 114 point gain. Two day of triple digit moves here. The russell had a nice percentage move up 1 1 2 . The nasdaq better by a full 43 points. David we have been talking about the up moves. Liz is wearing green in honor of the she saw it coming. We do have some red on the screen. Gold down significantly today. Almost 25 an ounce. Ending the day at 1673. Coming up, we have a very big bull on gold who says now is the time to get in, while some people are saying it could go down to 1200 an ounce. Liz media stocks surging the new highs today. Discovery communications, alltime high. Comcast also hitting alltime high. Time warner, getting a big boost here, 10 1 2 year high. Big move. David Overall Technology is todays Top Performing s p sector. Lets take a look at the etf xlk shares closing up more than 1 on this etf. We are closing watching oracle of course ready to break in with the tech giants earnings, any second they happen, keep it right here over the next hour. Liz we cant forget the Housing Market. Its showing signs of strength and homebuilder hovnanian has been flexing its muscles, the stock as david mentioned up more than 300 this year. Chairman and ceo of hovnanian looks ahead to what 2013 might hold. David last time he was here he said buy into the stock. He was right. Also thinking up picking up gold . Thinking of picking up gold . Before you do, there are reports that gold could be heading down to 1200 an ounce next year. Liz first we will tell you what drove the markets today with todays data down load. Stocks pushing higher on hints of a fiscal cliff deal. This time it was more inching to the middle on both sides. All three major indices posting gains for the second day in a row. We have technology and energy as todays Top Performing sectors while Consumer Staples and telecoms lagged. See the euro . Huge move here, 1. 32 and change, rising to 7 1 2 month high versus the dollar on speculation that u. S. Lawmakers will reach a deal on the fiscal cliff. Why that makes the euro so much stronger, you know, the euro hit intraday high of 1. 3238, it is up 1. 6 so far this month alone against the greenback. Homebuilder confidence jumping to its highest level in more than six and a half years in december. The National Association of homebuilder index posting its climbing 2 points to 47 this , month. A lot of optimism today. David and we have the numbers from oracle. They are out. Adam shapiro has been parsing through he numbers. Adam investors will be pleased with oracle. Revenue of 9. 1 billion, up 3 . And the street was expecting 9. 02 billion. One thing i want to tell you from the press release, they are saying that Cloud Software subscriptions revenues were up 17 to 2. 4 billion. And thats one of the things that investors are really paying attention to as oracle goes into that space. David that is one of the things they are pushing most heavily into. Adam, hank you very much. Lets get reacts from the chicago mercantile exchange. Larry, what do you think of these oracle numbers . Im not surprised. I think management has done a really good job at managing expectations over the past couple weeks. They are the leader in enterprise application. They have pockets of great database business. And their sales application is basically very very good. Theres a big risk to the market right now and to oracle specifically with the foreign Currency Exposure that they had, people were worried that the euro had rallied 4 since the last guidance period, so with that in mind, people were very very modest with their expectations, so this is great news. Liz you know, thats an excellent point larry. Because a clot of people just think because a lot of people just think oracle is a u. S. Company, but a lot of companies have seen themselves get swamped because they didnt hedge their foreign currency risk. Mcdonalds in the past has been bitten by this, there are a lot of other companies. Sap is out there scratching away bigtime and their stock has hit highs consistently, and then you have sales force. Com, which right now im looking at that, almost appears to get a nice boost from the halo effect of oracle right now. Yeah, no, im glad you brought that up, because they are on their heels. And thats why i think oracle deserves to be maybe a 39 or 40 dollar stock a year from now, if it wasnt for sap or sales force, it would be much higher than that. Right now the immediate competition is microsoft and i bshb m ibm and thats a good thing for oracle because oracle is better than they are in specifically what they do. David it was a nice significant rally whenever you have triple digit gains on the dow even though it was off its highs, it is a good day. Is the market sensing that there is is a deal being worked out inside the beltway and that we may be off to the races come 2013 . Yeah, david, i think ttat pingpong match is over, and i think whatever that compromise ends up eing, it is going to be a 1 drag to gdp. I think thats what the market is implying, and were just making up for lost time. I mean, keep in mind, back in september, we were willing to pay 14 times multiple for the s p 500. That would put us at 1500. So right now were less than 2 1 2 away from the alltime high not all time, year to date high, if a deal does get done, like the market is implying, i have no doubt that the market will hit 1475, by the end of the year. Liz wow. Thats a bullish call here. Wait till you hear what our next guests say. Stand by and listen in. David we will check in with him at the close of the s p futures at about 15 past the hour. Liz lets bring in the market panel. Schaffers Investment Research senior Technical Strategist is joining us. Also joining us is Center State Bank chief Investment Officer. Joe, you heard a very bullish call frommlarry. You are saying you expect little or no growth in 2013. Why . The economys underlying growth rate is about 1 1 2 to maybe 2 percent. The possibility clearly exists with consumers holding back because Savings Rates are so low, with businesses holding back, Business Capital spending and hiring because of the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff, that i think the down side exists more than the upside for growth in the first half of the year. Were not its not our forecast that were going to not grow. Our forecast is we will grow about 1 1 2 . But clearly the risk is there surrounding the fiscal cliff. David ryan, you have spent a lot of time looking a at options contracts. You think you found some key indicators that tell you that a big rally is m co is coming, explain. Thats right david. Weve had a real good move, especially the last few days. Can it continue . If you look at short interest, its as high right now as it was back in june. Remember june big downturn and big up move. A lot of shorts. As those shorts cover their bets, the market will go higher. Thats very bullish. David let me stop you right there because of the rally weve had the past couple of days if it continues, we could have a lot of Short Covering and that will lift the market, a lot of money is going to come into the market . Its cliche to say, but thats right. So many bearish bets are out there. If you follow the news, you would never know the market is as strong as it is. Following prices has been more advantageous. We look at various put to call ratios, our work says hedge Fund Institutions have drastically missed this rally. We think they are extremely underexposed. Thats another reason they can play catch up. They can keep going in the near trend. Liz joe, as cautious you might be about actual growth, youre still investing. Show us the money. Tell us where you like to invest and how right now. Sure. Well, liz, we think the market we think maybe high single digit gain for the year. The primary reason being than thanom that nominal gdp growth will be. We would say go with companies that are doing a great job turning out investment income. Lets go with a company like pepsico that has a3. 1 dividend yield. They have grown their dividend 27 over the past four years. They are expected to grow at about 15 the next four years. A great place to be. Totally different sector Teva Pharmaceuticals the largest Generic Pharmaceutical Company in the world. They have grown their dividend payout 63 over the past four years, looking to grow it at about 57 . Liz go with those guys that consistently raise the dividend quarter after quarter. Absolutely. And in fact with pepsi, they have raised their dividend 40 years in a row. David ryan, housing, were about to talk to hovnanian right here. He will be talking about his particular company but you have some housing picks. You think the housing boom is here to stay at least for the next couple of years, starting with lennar, why do you like lennar right now . Thats right david. I was on with you guys december 15th last year, i said i liked housi housing, now a year later they have had a big rally. You talk about lennar, looking at the option activity, theres a lot of bearish puts coming on lennar, also increasing short interest. What does that mean . That tells us again a lot of bearish bets, climbing that wall of worry, still a lot of monny on the side line. Lennar looks good. Look at longer term chart of a lot of housing stocks, they are still nowhere near the highs from 5, 6 years ago. That tells us yes as good news keeps coming, that negativity upward pricing action, housing could perform. Liz do you like maybe some of the materials guys . Absolutely. I think housing is a great place to be invested in today. But i think the most attractive place to be today, liz, is in Pipeline Companies. You can go into Master Limited partners of Pipeline Companies and get distribution yields in the 7 to 8 percent range. They are going to grow that distribution about 6 annually. Liz will that be doing a different tax strategy after the first of the year regardless . Always a concern about that, but if they put a Corporate Income tax on these companies as opposed to treating them as partnerships, thats going to raise three to four hours worth of the budget deficit on an annual basis. Its just not worth it. David finally ryan the consumer seems to be a little more confident. That doesnt always track in terms of retail sales. Youd go in now even before you get the figures from the holiday season; right . Thats right. Look at the xrt, the large retail etf, up 20 year to date. If you look at the news and negativity out there, people would never know that. A lot of these names, Abercrombie Fitch is one we like. Recently good earnings. Goes higher. A lot of shorts, a lot of bearish puts coming in. The xrt specifically a lot of bearishness on also in the option world. Contrarian indicator, it goes higher, people dont like it, thats what were looking for, stick with retail and betting on the u. S. Consumer. David look at the Options Markets folks for clues on how to bet in equities. Thank you guys, good stuff. Thank you. David debt talks continue as the clock keeps ticking to possible tax hikes for everybody. A lot of plans out there. Rich edson has been on top of every made being made inside the beltway. Find out whats in the plans and the hit that you could be taking. Liz plus take a look at this, hovnanian, hov, up nearly 300 this year, actually more than that. Can it keep rising at this pace as housing continues to recover . We have the ceo and president of hovnanian enterprises. What does 2013 going to look like . Better than that . David lets hope. [ male announcer ] this is amy. Amy likes to invest inhe market. She also likes to ride her bike. She knows the potential for making or losing money can pop up anytime. Thats why she trades with the leader in mobile trading. So shes always ready to take action, no matter how wily. Or weird. Or wonderfully the markets behing. Which isnt rocket scnce. Its just comm sense. From td ameritrade. David s p futures are closing right now. Lets go back to the cme group. Larry as we ended the trading day, we saw a little drop off. Did that continue into the futures . It did. We see a little bit of dropoff in the futures. Keep in mind, front and center is the fiscal cliff. People are squaring their positions, going home so they can sleep at night. Traders are really looking at things underneath the seat cushions other than the fiscal cliff. They are looking at hey theres no hard landing in china. Europe didnt fall off the map. The u. S. Didnt go into recession. We didnt have Worldwide Food inflation. Maybe theres a reason to be constructively bullish on this market. Liz wasnt 1442 supposed to be that support level . It is a support level. Below that though 1430. That is a key level. I think people are squaring up because hey, we dont know what will happen overnight, but by in large, the market is pricing in that something will get accomplished, but hey, if i was standing in that pit right now, id go home flat as well but youd never know. David i wont tell those guys about the asteroid thats planning to hit at 12 00 midnight. But thats a whole other story. Larry, great to see you. Liz david you just panicked half of our viewers. Oracle beat on the top and bottom line. Lets head back to nicole on the floor of the nyse. Nicole i have been talking with traders taking a look at the stock in the afterhours. It is a winner. Were watching oracle on the move to the upside, beat on both top and bottom line. They said that they have seen demand for webbased services. They have been doing a lot of acquisitions. We know Larry Ellison has been working on that, doingns in ord accelerate in the Cloud Computing area. Thats an area that actually did well for the company. Another thing we should note is accelerated dividend payouts for three quarters starting on december 21st like so Many Companies that we have seen. These are some of the action that we have seen here for oracle now after the bell coming out with numbers that beat the street on both the top and bottom line. So its a good one. Back to you. David thank you. Well the back and forth inside the beltway continues. The white house makinggsome concessions on taxes from the original offer, but then rejecting Speaker Boehners plan b proposal. Liz what are the main sticking points . Listen, this news flow is changing moment by moment. Joining us now from the nations capitol, fox businesss rich edson maneuvering all of the flows here. What are you hearing, rich . Rich well the difference is basically few hundred billion dollars in spending cuts, tax increases and how much to raise the debt ceiling. They have come pretty far away in the last few days. The president wants 300 billion dollars more in tax revenue than Speaker Boehner. The speakers willing to allow a tax rate hike on those earning more than a Million Dollars. The president wants to exempt only those making less than 400,000. Boehner wants a trillion in spending cuts. Take away interest savings and the white house is at about 930 billion dollars in spending cuts. Also have to counter with 80 billion dollars in additional spending. So Speaker Boehner is calling for a backup plan, considering the two sides are apart that would shield most taxpayers from next months scheduled tax increase. I believe its important that we protect as Many American taxpayers as we can. And our plan b would protect american taxpayers who make a Million Dollars or less and have all of their current rates extended. Everyone should understand boehners proposal will not pass the senate. Even as a last ditch not as a last ditch. Rich House Republicans gather at the top of the hour for a special meeting about this proposal. Thats where leader begins selling the backup plan. Democrats and republicans say they plan continue bipartisan talks to reach a larger comprehensive debt deal, but theres a little bit of a way to go. Back to you. David rich, it was interesting listening to senator harry reid dismiss that plan when in fact back in may pelosi came out in a letter specifically to Speaker Boehner saying, quote, democrats believe the tax cuts for those earning over a Million Dollars a year should expire and that we should use the resulting revenues to pay down the deficit. Well, thats the boehner plan. Nancy pelosi was on board back in may. What happened . Rich minority leader pelosi said she introduced that plan to quote smoke out republicans on taxes. She says republicans passed on that plan six months ago and the president took his case to the American People for those making more than 250,000 a year, those folks should get a tax increase and that voters supported that position by reelecting the president. Ive got to say david democrats especially from states like california and new york, senator schumer had a simple over in the senate, where those states and certain cities in those states, 250,000 a year, catches a lot more taxpayers than it does elsewhere. David rich edson great reporting all day rich. Thank you very much. Rich thanks. Liz we still dont know what the new year will bring for you and your taxes and your tax filing. That could make life difficult for tax preparers. Up next, the ceo of liberty tax, john hewitt on the fiscal cliff, how hes advising clients and why tax refunds could actually be delayed. David how many different possibilities could there be . He will tell you. Plus how about a big mac on christmas . Why is mcdonalds expecting its biggest day ever on Christmas Day . That story is coming up in todays speed read. Girl dont look at me. Second girl your hairs a bit frizzy today. Aw ha ha you should pick that up. Announcer every day, kids witness bullying.

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