17. 4 . That is just. 1 a behind first place. That top spot goes to president barack obama the s p 500 saw a 17. 5 annualized total return during the president s first term in office. Okay. Just for kicks. Here is how the three major indices fared under the president so far. We take a look. It has been a very decent rally since his first inauguration. S p up nearly 70 . The dow, 77 . And take a look at the nasdaq, more than doubling at 108 . Hopefully that is reflected in your 401 k s and pensions and 529s. David you have to think of the bottom of the market. The dow was 6,000 in march of 2009. The dow was at 6,000. It started over 14,000 just a year before he was in office. So again, when you start real low you can build real high. Liz dont count out American Business coming back. David of course not. Markets here at home are closed for president s day but we are open for business because there is always a way to make money. We have a top manager who is warning of a pullback and says it is time to get very defensive. He will share his top three picks in moment. Was there foul play before that 23 billion heinz deal . You saw the story break right here. The sec is alleging Insider Trading, octaning an emergency order to freeze assets in a swiss trading account. Coming up former sec chairman harvey pitt live and telling us what could have triggered this quick action and what the next step will be. David oscar ballots, they have to be turned in by tomorrow, so the envelopes are ready for the big event on sunday. We are going to the movies with the best of the best. Coming up our hollywood friend, mandalay ceo, peter gruber on the value of an oscar keeping viewers interested in the show. Well ask him for his picks. The executive producer from escape from planet earth will be here. This is the only kids firm playing right now. He will take us inside the big money world of entertaining the little ones. Liz but first, stocks did push higher last year and last week. Certainly hitting fiveyear highs during the height of the Fourth Quarter earnings season as the s p posted its longest weekly winning streak in more than two years. David the question is, will wall streets momentum continue or last quarters results signaling some kind of a slowdown . Joining us nbg productions chief equity analyst. Good to see you. Happy president s day to you. Talk about earnings. Lets talk actually about what happened on friday. Walmart came out with earnings this week. A Vice President of walmart came out with this memo saying that february is a disaster. He says it is the worst start to a month he has seen in his seven years at walmart. Kind of sent a little pale shadow over the markets leading into tuesday. Is that going to affect the coming earnings season . Absolutely a wakeup call. I believe there was truth behind this, okay. What is walmart . They rent their homes. They dont own a lot of stock. Walmart moms are a great indication what is happening with the economy. Making 40,000 a year. Living paycheck to paycheck. You have less money than the end of the 2012. It is a concern. It has to put some doubt in your head. David less money because taxes have gone up. Pulls into the question what is going on with the market. It has risen so far. Is it justified. Liz square that with the value oriented reit, dan horowitz was with us 19 minutes ago, he said, a lot of ainge tore stores are walmarts, he said that people are flooding in there today. They have done rather well. Yes, january was slow but tell me how to square those two together . Walmart what were seeing a lot of strength in their food, consumeables business. That is good for them. What is that . Low margin category. Liz low margin, right. Theyre not seeing a lot of strength in home goods, upper priced items. Items you have to think about. Put them on the credit card. You have to stretch a little bit. In fact youre seeing weakness there is obviously a negative signal. David let me get to one of your picks, surprisingly another retail stock, american eagle. If all this is true for walmart why are you going for a stock like american eagle. That is good question. You have to look where the Shopping Trips consolidate. Their competitors are aeropostal and abercrombie fitch. American eagle is doing everybody great. Managing inventory. Online sales are great. If they do, they make, consolidate trips, they will go for the best bang for the buck and best product. Liz microsoft is another one of your picks. These are not low end priced items they are using. They have pricey software. They have the surface. Why do you like microsoft, down 11 . I like nobody is even thinking about them. Theyre not apple. Theyre not in the headlines. Cerberus pro, i done channel check, it is selling out. David really . Here is the biggest kicker, repurchase program started in 2008, expires in 2013. Over next 12 months i think you see a big Major Program from them. That will get the stock moving. David you say the stock market right now is overvalued. People bought too much into the market. Im looking at one sector, a lot of people tell me, even some of the people in the housing sector that has topped off. Why are you bullish on at least one stock, Toll Brothers in the housing sector . Housing is still a growth market. Consider what is happening. Expectations have gone very strong and stocks sold off into some of the good news. S p Home Building index peaked on january 28th. Toll brothers i like it long term. I sat down to talk with them. They are in adult living communities. That is great baby boomer play. Order growth rates are growing significantly. If you look at cheaper price, tuck away next two to three years. You check next quarter. Liz why are you bothered . Why are you bearish when 75 of the companies that reported earnings actually beat . I know there were down ward graded estimates on the Current Quarter but what is making you so concerned . Youre going hard at me. For example, within the dow transports, for example, the domestics logistics play, their stocks are weakening. That sends a signal, walmart too. If you go back to the latest quarter earnings season, europe, you see companies restructure, pulling out of businesses. Theyre designing lower priced products in europe. When you see spain at over p20 employment there is still major, major risk there see bond yields coming down the way they have, the real economy is under pressure. David when you find somebody skeptical about this markets you still have specific bets to place in this market. Even if you think things are slow or coming you can still make plays. You dont want to run a high. Give a bonus, starbucks. Pay up to own growth right now. Liz brian, great to see you. Nbg production chief equity analyst. Always a way to make money. Thank you. David yep. Liz is doddfrank unconstitutional . Oklahomas attorney general scott pruitt challenged part of the act saying what is supposed to protect the consumer is putting people at risk . He will join us exchrufsy are to tell us about the lawsuit that might affect stock. David the tarp bailout, is it a Success Story or not . Some people say they paid back all their money with interest. We have somebody on who says tarp is losing money and it probably well never get it back. If youre looking for a case model, this is a negative example, not a positive one. Stay tuned for him coming up. This is 100,000. We asked total strangers to watch it for us. Thank you so much. I appreciate it. Ill be right back. They didnt take a dime. How much in fees does your bank take to watch your money . If your bank takes more money than a stranger, you need an ally. Ally bank. Your money needs an ally. Today is gonna be an important day for us. You ready . We wanna be our brothers keeper. Whats number two we wanna do . Bring it up to 90 decatherms. How bout ya, joe . Lets go ahead and bring it online. Attention on site, attention on site. Now starting unit nine. Some of the worlds cleanest gas turbines are now powering some of americas biggest cities. Siemens. Answers. While cnbc is on tape, were open for business. David well, many defenders of the Treasury Departments tarp bailout refuse to even call it that, claiming that billions bailed out, paid out to banks in 2008 and 2009 have been paid back with interest. But was tarp a Success Story that we should repeat if the banks go sour again . Our next guest says tarp hasnt all been paid back and we may never see that money again. Joining me is david weidner, columnist for the wall street journal and market watch. He had a great column on this the other day. Good to see you, david. I was just on this panel with bob steele, former Goldman Sachs guy. He was ceo of wachovia. He was right in the middle of this tarp, alan. He got upset when i use term bailout. He said it wasnt a bailout. We paid it all back. Was he right or wrong. He is wrong. I dont know how to put it any other way. The reality is, is that in the end we ended up spending about 430 billion of that 700 billion that was earmarked in the tarp program. And, right now, as it stand, about 60 billion is still outstanding. Now, will we get some of that back . Yeah, maybe. But, the reality is that 23 billion we know were not getting back. The Treasury Department has written that off. So, when people listen and, to somebody defending tarp and saying, oh they paid it back with interest, yes, the big banks paid it back with 19 billion worth of interest but even after that is all said and done the reality is that these billions of dollars are still outstanding. The chances of really getting this money back are actually getting slimmer and slimmer. David all right. Heres why this is important. It is not just, na, na. We may get into another financial crisis. Some people in the future may say, look how well tarp worked. We can do that again to save the banks if that happens again . Do you think that is a mistake using tarp as a model for some future financial collapse. Absolutely. You can talk about it two ways. You can look at the financial side, which is, you know, everything i just mentioned. The fact that these programs, this money, did not earn a return and taxpayers actually are on the hook for losses. But there is also the what we call moral hazard. The reality is, by enacting tarp in general, just in the first place, by saying, okay, the government is going to step in and shore up these companies with these dollars, it send a signal and the signal is this. That, the government will step in, when a, industry and institution, that is deemed systematically important, that means it is important to the nations economy. If they run into trouble, the government is basically said, we will come in, and bail you out. David right. And thats the real problem with these programs is that. David here is another problem with the program. Everybody seems to agree a lot of banks like citi and others were just too big. They got too involved. Right. David when you had a systemic problem it led the entire collapse or could have led to the entire collapse of the bank and the financial system. The problem is after tarp which we were told solve or at least partly take care of too big to fail, we are more concentrated than ever. The top five banks have a greater percentage of all assets than they did before this crisis. So tarp is actually, i dont know if it had an effect there but certainly not going in the right direction with regard to too big to fail. What it did gave the institutions ample capital. And smaller institutions they bought them up, bought them up and became bigger and more powerful. David forgive me for interrupting. Go ahead. David they gained extra access to the Federal Reserve bank. They were able to get investment banks, which is not what the fed was designed to feed into, now have the direct pipeline into the fed . Thats absolutely correct. So you have institutions that are plugged into government. Theyre almost causing governmental institutions. And, the problem with this is, what we see, what happened to jpmorgan last year. And that is, they made a single bet that blew up so big, they lost 6 billion. On this london whale trade. So these institutions are going out and being reckless again. Theyre going out and playing that they know the government will be there to back them up. David david, one final point. Anytime you hear somebody say tarp paid off its bets and aig is a perfect example, the way they, the way they did creative accounting with tax writeoffs, you write about this, aig in 2011 made 20 billion. What they dont say that 17. 7 billion of money booked in as a profit was a tax writeoff from the financial crisis, right. Thats right. All these institutions basically operated for years taxfree simply because they were able to book all the losses that they had, that they suffered as a result of making stupid decisions and stupid bets. They were able to write that off on their taxes. That is the double wham any whammy of this tarp program. You shore up companies. You lose money on the program. Then the other side they book the losses as writeoffs and get you on the other side. David david weidner, publish as great column. Thanks for coming in, david. Appreciate it. Thank you, david. David liz, over to you. Liz he need to watch our segment with the attorney general of oklahoma, feels the other way, too easy to liquidate the banks. Your Academy Award ballot has to be turned in by tomorrow 5 00 p. M. Pacific time, 8 00 p. M. Eastern, up next, our good buddy peter guber gives us his picks and he knows. Let us know what the oscar is worth for the one winner. Well tell but a multibilliondollar Health Care Tax that will possibly hit your wallet. Stay tuned. train horn vo wherever our trains go, the economy comes to life. Norfolk southern. One line, infinite possibilities. Liz did you get your oscar ballots in . David no. I wish i had a chance to vote. Liz are we not members of, okay. David not quite. Liz official voting ends tomorrow at 5 00 p. M. Pacific time, 8 00 p. M. Eastern for sunday nights 85th annual Academy Awards. David nine films are up for best picture, who will win . How much is the top award actually worth . Who better to ask than somebody who had Award Winning picture, mandalay chairman and ceo, peter guber. Wonderful to see, you fighter. Thanks for coming in. I want to talk not about the Academy Awards but the Golden Globe Awards which is usually a smalltime i have a affair for the Academy Awards. This time it was huge. You had the highest ratings in, i guess six years. You had a terrific performance by tina faye and amy poehler. Just hysterical. They nominated and awarded a lot of films and individuals who werent up for nominations. Academy awards, you as part of Dick Clark Productions own the Golden Globe Awards. So youre very happy with the success of golden globe. But to what extent if any, will the Golden Globes affect the Academy Awards . Well the Academy Awards happen so late in the season. Almost march when they come out. People are planning summer vacation. So it is very, very late. All the films played fully. They have the bafta, british Academy Award, the globes the sags. All the awards. The globes is where people gather in Party Atmosphere. The truth is they are big predictor of the big award. The show is successful because fun and entertaining. The Academy Awards show looks like 10,000 people sqirmed into a 747 in economy class. Doesnt have the same kind of zest had a Party Atmosphere at the globes. Liz go right to the heart of the matter. Who will really come out on the winning side of this . I guess we showed best picture nominations. Again, its a very crowded field now. No longer just the five, right . And peter, where do you see this going . Who do you think really has a shot at winning . Well from the beginning everyone felt link con was the odds on favorite. Steven spielberg and daniel daylewis conversation. As the awards came out and argo started to pick up steam, lincoln is the dark horse. This is the biggest grossing domestic of all pictures it is a dark horse to win. It will probably win daniel daylewis the best actor award. It might even win spielberg the best director award because the other fellow, argo, ben affleck was not nominated in the best director academy. That is a real anomaly in this business. Ultimately you say argo could win best picture and lincoln could win best director and daniel day louis with daylewis is best actor. With very, very dark horse, not a silver horse, dark horse, maybe could sneak in i think it will be those three nominations and awards. David can i mention a couple films i know you and i like didnt make it. One is skyfall, the best james bond movie since gold goldfinger you have to go back that far and the hunger games. I must have seen the hunger games ten times. That is skye fall. Skyfall were looking at. Why didnt these two get in there. Youre right about skyfall, they did a complete makeover and doover. It was not redux it, was all new and type of actor and performance and success of the film. It was amazing there wasnt one of the nine films for sure. 100 for sure and even he director. David what about the hunger games . The hunger games is one of the things with young adult films never gets the old adult audiences kudos. David got me. Very hard to get them. The academy remember is 6,000 more conservative older members and they really vote their heart, their wallet and pocketbook and experience and generally doesnt go to those younger films. Liz they also vote their studios, dont they. Bingo. For sure. Liz anymore, peter, it is so costly to distribute a film that several studio names are always listed in production companies, correct . Yes. Thats true, but the gold now the last few years is not the same as it was earlier because the films hadnt played out, they hadnt reached dvd or pay tv windows, all kinds of things like that. These preliminaries films pretty much played out. There will be terminal value, best picture, best director, best actor internationally but ultimately the films played out. It is more glory than gold ri