Food and energy up. 1 of 1 . David apple right out of the gate. The stock rebounding after the slide yesterday. Investors brushing aside concerns that sales of new iphones might be disappointing. Liz there are reports this afternoon that at t is seeking buyers for its cell phone towers. These towers could fetch as much as 5 billion. David despite concerns about Interest Rates, homebuilders are more optimistic than at anytime since the mid 2 thousands. National homebuilders Housing Market index remaining at 58 this month, the same level as in august. Liz the sec announced Enforcement Actions against 23 securities firms. Securities Exchange Commission saying those firms improperly participated in Public Offerings after betting against the stocks. 22 firms have settled with the sec. David a bigger version of the boeing 787 dream liner is taking off. They hope the 7879 will help increase dreamliner sales and put the aircrafts previous battery problems in the rear view mirror. After the bell starts right now. Liz lets get to todays Market Action with our market panel. We have mark travis, Intrepid Capital management who says investors shut only buy when theres a discount in the market. Scott black, Delphi Management president who warns the economy may not accelerate as fast as wall street thinks. Both of you guys are very interesting when you come to the stock picks. Lets get to the macro picture right now, scott, right off the bat, you over the past several months sounded somewhat of a negative tone yet market continues to go higher. What is going on here . Well corporate earnings have been a disointment. You look at the last quarter, liz. Truthfully revenue and earnings were up less than 4 . Of the original s p estimates were north of 112, 113. Bottom up estimates are 108 and change. From the time of the barons roundtable in january i think i have been much more realistic at 104. Which makes the market 16. 5 times estimated earnings this year. By historical standards were fully valued. On small and midcap which you alluded to before i came on, theyre roughly 20 times expected earnings. They may be going up in liquidity in etfs but not great value overall in the small and midcap arena. David mark, we heard Mario Gabelli is treasury yields is first thing he looks at. I dont get up that early. You do too. They seem to tell us the fed willing pupping back a bit. Once again we have kind of mixed signals with the yield. It is down one basis point today to 2. 5. What are the yields telling you . Well, i mean, i think, david they have gone from say, 1. 61 in the second week of may to where they are today. So you have backed up the yield to where we are. And, you know, i think that as you raise the discount rate on a present value calculation in a discounted cash flow you will get a lower terminal value. So at some point that become as headwind. David hold on a second. Put all of that in english. Talk english to us. What does that mean the fed will do tomorrow. Sorry. David what are Interest Rates telling you short term about what the fed is going to do tomorrow . I cant use sign language . David no. You knee, i think, i think bernankes out of here the start of the year. He wants to, you know, start the process. I believe they will start the process. Were in unprecedented times as far as the amount of easing weve had over the last however many years. So i think they will try to do as gradually as we can but we really dont know whats going to happen. Its a great experiment and hopefully it works out for all of us. Liz scott, what about you, what do you think, not necessarily will happen tomorrow but the reaction from it . Warren buffett said back in may, we know this the minute the fed decides on something, every trader in the market whether theyre long, short, bonds, equities is going to make some type of move or at least think about it. I think youre going to see a gradual tapering here. I look 3. 7 trillion on the fed Balance Sheet. It is actually averaged about 70 billion per month. 840 billion incrementally. You will see tapering in the treasury. Not so much in the mortgage because you dont want to kill the Housing Market. I think to a large extent a small amount of tapering is already priced into stocks. My biggest concern is debt ceiling crisis which will come to conflict by end. Month that could spook the market more so than the gradual tapering. David lets talk about traders are doing. Mark, your cash levels have gone up recently. Why do you think that is . I know why it is, david. Weve been selling more than buying. Weve had incremental inflows. Were looking at a disconnect between price and value and a conservative estimate of that value. When we get there, were a seller. This time of year we try to, you know, neutralize our Tax Liability best we can, running into our fiscal year. So that is some of the effect but, as scott alluded to earlier, small cap shares are not inexpensive. And that is a part of the Capital Markets where we focus the Intrepid Capital funds. So were having a hard time. Not to say we dont own anything, but there is not a plethora of opportunities from our point of view. Liz perfect segue to what you guys do own. Between the two of you you have a lot of brains and good coin a lot of money. I will with scott. We can put up the names. You like swift energy and Rogers Communications which is a canadian company. Anybody who lands an an canadian airport immediately you can tell in your blackberries and your smartphones it switches over to rogers. They do really, im sorry, sanchez energy. You really do have a lock on that market with rogers, right . Well, its a slow grower. The top line is only about 3 . The bottom lines about 5 but an enterprise value to ebitda is one of the cheapest media stocks in the world. It is six 1 2 times ebitda. It is selling at 11 times next years earningsings. They have remarkable return on equity over 45 . They do have dominant share in wireless. Bigger in terms of earnings in wireless than they are in cable tv they have a triple play in telefon any. They have bell canada and telus. The stock is trading low of the year because there was threat verizon would enter the market and they decided not to. The stock sells 41 a share. They in 3. 70. Liz there is the fallout when that news came out. You see the falloff on the chart. Sure. First six months they did 870 million in net income, generated 310 million in free cash. Veritable money machine. Cheap statistically. David rogers is clearly cheap. Mark, you say big lots is a big stock youre looking at but that stock is up 20 since its low in august. It is not exactly cheap short term. No but we think theres still a disconnect, david. We think your valuations in the mid 40s much like scott was alluding to, enterprise value to ebitda. That name to us is six times ebitda to enterprise value. So its a cheap security in a maybe a not cheap equity market at least from our point of view. So it, at 1600 stores. They bought stores in canada. Maybe not as good as business as rogers wireless. I get great ideas listening to scott in my ear. I think that, they have brought out coolers to serve food in the store at 75 stores. Hopefully david were running out of time. I got to get this one in. You like wrestling. You like World Wrestling entertainment. Why . You know, im starting to wonder myself. All kidding aside. No, its actually, its a very good business. Actually a very old business. Vince mack mans father started it in the mid 50s. Theyre trying to develop, you know, their own cable channel. And the tv rights are good. And, you know, you got a beautiful Balance Sheet. 700 million equity market cap. 120 in cash. Youre paid to wait at 4 dividend. Liz, i got to go. Liz scott, might not be glitery, sanchez energy. Mark liked swift. Great to both of you. Are you guys going to be in a bomb shelter when the fed news come out . Scott . No, in the middle of the fray. Im not worried. Im a longterm investor. Liz longterm investment is the smart way to go. David thanks, mark, thanks, scott. Gold and oil are the in the crosshairs of the investors today. In a moment we head to the cme group to find out what is hyped the big moves for the closewatched commodities. How you can play the market. When they say their fall says about the entire stock market. Liz also the clock is ticking down on the big budget showdown in washington today. The Congressional Budget Office added new fuel to the fire. Were taking you to capitol hill for the very latest. David facebook question is on the reports that jpmorgan could pay 800 million in fines to settle the secs civil action on london whale trading. Sound like a lot of money but some say it is not enough. We want to know from you, are Financial Firms getting off too easy by paying these fines . Well bring you answers later in the show. [ male announcer] surprise youre having triplets. [ babies crying ] surprise your house was built on an ancient burial ground. [ ghosts moaning ] surprise your car needs a new transmission. [ coyote howls ] how about no more surprises . Now you can get all the online Trading Tools you need without any surprise fees. Its not rocket science. Its just common sense. From td ameritrade. See who does good work and compare costs. It doesnt usually work that way with health care. But with unitedhealthcare, i get information on quality rated doctors, Treatment Options and estimates for w much ill pay. That helps me, and my guys, make better decisions. I dont like guesses with my business, and definitely not with our health. Innovations that work for you. Thats health in numbers. Unitedhealthcare. Amelia. Neil and buzz for teaching us that you cant create the future. By clinging to the past. And with that youre history. Instead of looking behind. Delta is looking beyond. 80 thousand of us investing billions. In everything from the best experiences below. To the finest comforts above. Were not simply saluting history. Were making it. David adobe just reporting their Third Quarter results. Lets head back to Nicole Petallides on floor of the new york stock exchange. What do they say, nicole . Heres why were seeing the stock moving. So the Current Quarter was weakerthanexpected. However the outlook better than expected. So lets break down the exact numbers that weve gotten in from adobe. Of the 32 cents versus analyst estimates of 34 cents. That obviously two cents miss. We come in with the numbers for revenue. Also a miss there. 995. 1 million versus 1. 01 billion. So the numbers come in shy for the Current Quarter, however, they do see their revenue for the Fourth Quarter looking to surpass the analyst estimates. Or be right in line at least. In addition to the fact the company, the creative cloud, the adobe creative cloud, that surpassed one million subscriptions in the Third Quarter. That is sort of a milestone. Dont forget, they have the whole kind of data management. This is where they have analytics, social advertising, targeting, everything they put it all into their cloud. And in addition to that, you know, i was reading in barons not long ago, they did a profile on the ceo of the company, talking about him being a turn around artist. It really has been good news for the san jose, california company. Yeartodate its a great performer as well. Up nearly 30 . Big moves here for adobe. Certainly one to watch tomorrow. A winner now as i noted on this outlook as well. Key of one million subscriptions. Back to you. Liz we said last week when we were with the ceo of adobe, we said if there were survivor show for Silicon Valley companies he would be the winner. Right. Liz steve jobs, david, tried, in a way to kill that company by refusing to put adobe flash on the ipads and i fixed his Company Another way. David shows you market share is important even in the ether space. We were wondering in Cloud Computing would mean that much. It does. If you get customers, even on hardline even if you miss estimates which they did. Liz both top and bottom. Oil pell to its lowest level in more than three weeks. Gold dropping for the fifth time in six days. Here to break down the action david is larry shover, sfg alternatives chief investment officer. Yes, thats a familiar face on the right, sandy smith joining from us the cme as well. Sandy, oils lowest close since august 202nd. Im beginning to wonder whether this is more than just relief over not going to war in syria . Whether this has to do with fed action as well . What do you think . I think really tale of two markets right now. You have the u. S. Dollar down today against a basket of cure currencies, which indicate the market is pricing in exactly what will happen, tapering of 10 billion by the fed or no tapering at all. When you look at the price of oil it is telling as you different story. That would indicate aside from the syria story, that would indicate actually well see the fed taper more than expected. That we would see a stronger dollar and weaker commodities. The market might be setting itself up for a big surprise tomorrow. Liz larry, i know you guys are watching this very closely and tomorrow will be a big day. What is the chatter in the pits how the reaction will take hold . We pretty much figured biel see some type of tapering but what are you expecting for reaction . Where will we see the biggest spasms and gyrations . Stocks, bonds . I think it will be the stock market right behind me. We had a relief rally. People are getting used to the fact hey, well see 10 to 15 billion of tapering. It is much larger that than. The press conference and what will happen with guide dense in 2013. Zero rate Interest Rate policy. Is it going to be 2 1 2 or less . That is on minds of traders. Anything on that comes out of bernankes mouth will be sliced and diced. Well see a big move one way or the other. David what is futures now, larry. People are squaring up. People just dont want much exposure. Were seeing that really across all sectors, whether ags, metals, energies or behind me. People want to stay as flat as possible. Liz so, then, sandra, what exactly happens with ags and commodities . Are you hearing any discussion about that . Youve got the stock market that obviously has been rallying into this announcement. Today was no different. We got another 35point gain in the dow. Then youve got gold prices. Were watching gold down 8. It is hovering around crucial level of 1300 an ounce. Gold is the at 100 level. All the commodities are sitting a at these key, big, round numbers, psychological numbers where a lot of difficult trading programs will be set to be triggered on this announcement. Why i think a lot of people like larry youre hearing from are calling for a big move one way or the other, not just in the stock market but commodities market as well. This will all be about the u. S. Dollar and currency movement, liz. All the commodities are priced in u. S. Dollars. If we get a big reaction in the currency market that trades at the cme i will get a big move across commodities as well. David larry doesnt seem to be any concern about inflation when you look at commodities but is there concern . I know a lot of cme traders there are worried all the money printing will eventually cause some inflation or some kind of bubble but you dont see it in the price of commodities. No, you dont see it in the price of commodities. You dont see it in the price of the longterm euro dollars or fed funds rate, or whatever you want to look at. Seems like the market is not pricing in inflation whatsoever. Keep in mind traders behind me we realize were in a policy sperm weve never seen before and nobody knows how this is going to turn out. Whether inflation, deflation or something in between. Inverse stagflation, who knows. When you look at forward curves and Interest Rate products specifically theyre not pricing in inflation now. David inverse stagflation. That is new phrase to me. Go ahead, sandy. Dave, i was just going to point out, everybody should take note where the yield on the 10year is right now. It is at 2. 85 . Remember just a couple weeks ago we were above 3 . So that is likely going to be the thing to watch tomorrow. Liz i think sandras right but not necessarily for commodities purpose. Much watch the u. S. Dollar. Any kind of lessening of fed involvement is dollar positive. It is bullish for the dollar. Got to watch that more. We will for all our viewers. Larry shover, sandra smith. Great to have you. David House Speaker john boehner struggle to win the budget battle may have gotten a whole lot more difficult after a blunt new warning from the Congressional Budget Office. Well bring you the latest live from capitol hill. Liz the house that jamie dimon built, jpmorgan chase, could be slapped with a whale of a fine to finally settle the traying mess that cost the firm more than 6 billion in losses. But will that really be the end of the scandal for the ceo . If you slam the door do a few more Windows Start to open . Well game it up for you next. [ male announcer ] now, taking care of things at home is just a tap away. Introducing at t digital life. Personalized Home Security and automation. [ lock clicks ]. That lets you loser to home. Thats so cool. [ male announcer ] get 100 in instant savings when you order digital life smart security. Limited availability in select markets. Liz time for a quick speed read. Five stories one minute. Rhapsody restructuring the business. They announced plans to cut 15 of its staff as president john irvin steps down. China set to replace canada as starbucks second largest market. The coffee giant plans to open a total of one thousand stores in china best end of the year. So much for drinking tea. The face value for the most expensive tickets at