This is making money. Breaking right now the theme for the second half of 2020 is on Second Thought. Thats right. Lots of adjustments but very few on the street are actually changing their minds. Theyre changing numbers but not their minds but still this market is powering head. We have Liz Ann Sonders the best place to be right now. Victoria fernandez being bearish soft landing is filling to the brim. Brian wesbury sounds off. What mapped to the recession . Busy earnings season Danielle Shay this has different flavor, more carb sure approach to the stocks you still want to own. Sam bankmanfried brother wanted to buy a sovereign nation for doomsday. The survivors would be a select few. Effective altruism what i really think it is about. All that and more on making money. E. Charles so the theme for todays show is second half 2020, 2023 rather, on Second Thought . I mean take a look at this. This is the Financial Advisors bullbear ratio. You can see very, very bearish. It is rocketing higher. Getting near some pretty high levels in terms of bulls versus bears and these are your Financial Advisors, folks this is starting to come around. There is the individual investor, Retail Investor bullish sentiment, it has been greater than bearish sentiment for seven weeks. After 15 weeks and 44 weeks. You went essentially went almost 60 weeks bearish but now seven weeks in a row at the gap has gotten really wide. Bullish here, bearish there, something a sole signal. 51. 4 bullish. Jpmorgan this is interesting because they do this survey with investors. The question is are you planning to increase your equity exposure . Look at this. Only 17 say yeah. Finally i will show you another chart. This is important as we try to figure this all out. I kind of talked about this on friday. This is the fund managers. The funds you put your money into every paycheck. What is their number one position . Cash. That worked out at the beginning of the year but lowest position is equities. We know stocks are on fire. Meanwhile every wall street analyst, just about everyone of them has changed their minds. Heres the thing. They didnt change their mind. They made adjustments to the yearend target. Few of them have changed their minds. Who stands out kind of weird. Cantor fitzgerald sees the market being lower than they did in january. Anyway theyre all still mostly bearish even they though did adjust their targets. I want to bring in Charles Schwab chief investment strategist, Liz Ann Sonders. Just everyone had to go back to the drawing table, even to find a way to maintain the polled posture. I want do ask what adjustments have you been making . Keep in mind you see were absent on that liz. Thats because with eight trillion dollars of all individual investors the extra size, the game, whatever you want to call it of yearend price targets, frankly is not really of any significant value to individual investors. Yes, it is a way to scorecard traditional strategists across the Investment Banking firms. Charles right. We dont think thats the right way to advise such a large pool of clients. I will say that in our year, 2023 outlook we at the time, at the end of 2022 expected what had been the outperformance of equal weight relative to cap weight to persist for the most part in 2023. That clearly was not the case in the first half. Initially triggered by the banking crisis. Now were starting to see a little bit of a lift in equal weight. So i think thats something thats sort of shifted in our view from first half of the year until second half of the year. Charles but for the most part then youre still looking at equal weight to outperform . We think that this broadening out probably has legs and ultimately its healthy for the market as you see performance expanding. Charles right. At the end of may, just coming into june it wasnt just that the magnificent seven, the super seven, whatever term you want to use was significantly outperforming but at that point only 15 of the s p had beaten the index over the prior 60 days. Thats now more than doubled. It is around 32 . That is still fairly low but moving in the right direction. So another way to any about that is equal weight relative to cap weight with fits and starts we think probably that has legs the second half of the year. Charles let me ask you about a chart. I saw you posted this. It is kind of, how many days weve gone with the s p without a drop of more than 1 . These kind of charts are intriguing for me and i think the audience in a sense are we supposed to read these numbers as a contrarian sig fall or as a sign of bullishness . Maybe neither. There is one of the various ways you can look at participation at breadth. There is no Silver Bullet with any of this. There is no Perfect Point which youve gone x number of days and in every instance you see a rolling over there but it is one sign of the market having been overbought here. Markets can stay overbought for an extended period of time. Sentiment can stay stretched for an extended period of time. Thats why even though they are important tools to have in the tool box assessing Market Conditions there are no magic bullets in terms of any type of breadth indicator or sentiment indicator f they were wouldnt this be a lot easier than it is . Charles i think so. Many of them, right, i remember when i first started doing Technical Analysis i would get 12 buy signals, 13 sell signals, four punts. That was square one. Before i let gow, last week investing styles, small caps really starting to come on. Small cap outperformed midcap, and Small Cap Value outperformed. Small caps combing on, the russell has been up seven weeks coinciding with the bullishness of individual investors. A lot of folks are saying maybe thats where the opportunities are . Probably but heres a tip, and i dont give tips in the traditional sense all that often. Russell 2000 is the most common benchmark used for small caps but it does not have a profitability filter and it has got a pretty High Percentage of stocks that dont have profits as a result. Forward pe is about 24, 25 on the russell. The s p 600, very wellknown index obviously, index provider, they have a profitability filter. So if youre, and as a result the forward pe is only 15. More of a tip if you want, if youre an index investor or looking for sort of a starting point at the index level for ideas just be mindful of the fact that you get that Higher Quality sort of characteristic to an index like the s p 600. Charles ive been trying to use the s p 600. It is a great point. The s p five hundred is car vana. It is up huge 800 but they aint making no money. Liz ann, thank you so much. Always appreciate it. My pleasure. Charles folks coming up later in the show i will give you my take on this altruism thing. Altruism is built up as dogooders but im concerned about some of the things im sighing from the bankmanfried family. Meanwhile nynex guest is spying small and midcap value names. I want to bring in chief investment strategist david kudla. Small caps are starting to come on strong. I know you like this area. As liz ann pointed out there is a big umbrella. Is there something you are specifically focused . We think small cap had reurge ends if you look just over of the past month. The russell 2000 liz ann was talking about up about 6 . The midcap 400 up about 5 1 2 versus the s p at about 3 1 2 so were seeing that outperformance as we see this leadership in the market from the magnificent seven broaden out to other large cap stocks but also into midcap and small cap. Were looking at small cap and looking into midcap. Midcap we like some of the homebuilders and midcap large cap like homebuilders and Home Improvement stock because of this new cycle we have this housing. One of the rationales i read about a lot it is sort of a proxy for the domestic economy. Does that play into your thinking as well . Yeah. You know when we, when we look at whats happening abroad, whats happening to the dollar, whats happening domestically typically small caps are when we think the u. S. Economy is going to do well. Small caps are more based on our our domestic economy both for their input and output where they sell to more than the multinational conglomerates. Right now we have pmi numbers out of europe that were terrible today. China is struggling so much that they are continuing to stimulate their economy as the bank of england, the bank of australia, the bank of canada, the ecb, the fed, have all been tightening. So when we look at economies around the world were actually doing better. Look at our gdp numbers and our pmi numbers today that were in expansion territory. So that bodes well for small caps as well, in the u. S. Charles i want you to help me out with a little bit after exercise. Wellknown die gram of assets t could be stocks, housing, whatever. But essentially of the way wall street always tells us you get what they call a stealth base, right . When things are really cheap. Lets call this october 2022. Then they start to take off. Then it really blows up. They say the smart money is the buyer when it is . The stealth mode but we know wall street hasnt been a buyer. So a lot of socalled smart money is not in there. Instead the public has been a buyer, maybe some institutions, my question to you, will the next phase, mania phase of this rally actually be pumped up by wall street . It may very well be. There are a lot of professional investors that were caught offguard, caught off sides a little bit earlier this year. We have came into this year defensive because of 2022. And there are, there are a lot out there that still think this is a bear market rally. Theyre still calling it a bear market rally. Were clearly in a bull market. So the question is where are we on that curve . I think were right where you say we are and you know, we still have somewhere around five trillion on the sidelines in cash . Still near that alltime high that we set earlier this year that can come on into the market. So there is certainly the fuel to move stocks higher. We were talking about 4 money market yields at the beginning of the year but now we are talking about here on tv, talking a lot more about stocks, rise they have had this year. Charles yeah. And we think they have further to go with another five to 10 pullback in there somewhere along the way like which got in march because of the banks. Charles david, i just pointed out to the audience youve been one of the top performers, occasionally the top performer in your industry a long time. I think you expressed why. The okay the ability to say we might make a mistake here, let es adjust. Congratulations. I appreciate you sharing your knowledge. Thank you very much. Thank you. Charles all right, folks a reminder, the special, you know, making money special, it is called, maintaining unstoppable prosperity. Thursday, this thursday, folks, 2 00 p. M. Eastern. I can tell you im so excited. Guess what . There are a few kick h tickets left. Join me in new york city if you live in the vicinity. Go to event wright dotcom and search charles payne. Coming up folks are jumping on the sort of landing bandwagon like crazy. Recession bandwagon was filled to the brim a couple weeks ago. Brian wesbury has his take next. We talk a lot on this show stocks you should be buying but you also should be trimming names. Victoria fernandez how to manage a portfolio. She will help us out next. Your record label is taking off. But so is your sound engineer. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. Indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. Visit indeed. Com hire [ applause ] the day you get your clearchoice dental implants makes every day a confident day. A neverhidemysmile day. A lifeoftheparty day. A takeontheworld day. A believeinmyself day. A flashmynewteeth day. Because your clearchoice day is the day you get your confidence back for good. A clearchoice day changes every day. Schedule a free consultation. This is american infrastructure, a prime target for cyberattacks. But the same aipowered security that protects all of google also defends these services for everyone who lives here. Back in the day, sneaker drops meant getting online to wait in line. Now with xfinity mobile. We get the Fastest Mobile Service and can get the freshest kicks asap. I got this. Save hundreds a year over tmobile, at t and verizon with the best price for two lines of unlimited. Nice job, little sis they grow up so fast. Im a fan. From xfinity. Charles folks, earnings season in full swing. Some really big hitters up this week, google, microsoft, meta, all this week. My next guest says some cautious themes have emerged after of course the strong start with the banks. Joining me crossmark chief global strategist, victoria fernandez. Your overought thoughts . It is a mixed picture stocks made such big moves, feels like the onus is not just beating but beating big . Charles, you notice the stocks have beat are Stocks Movement much smaller than we actually see. You see a 1 move on stocks that meet expectations. This time were seeing half a percent,. 6 of a percent move. Youre right they have to beat by even more because the bar was lowered somewhat going into this earnings season. Charles i was reading your note and you talked about trimming some positions. I want to talk to you about that. One of the difficulties a lot of investors have is when to take profits or how to take profits. Thats right. I want to make money for my clients just as much as everyone else. We want to go in there and realize the profits weve made on some of the trades in the portfolio. So you have to do that periodically. Just as you want to go in and look at names to buy you need to go in and look where you can start trimming. So weve been doing that in our part portfolios. Look at a name like bank of america. Bank of america is up 10 over the last week with s p up 1 . Take a little bit off the table from that name. We know financials have done well when they kicked us off from earnings. You see the same thing with a name like kroger. Some of these more defensive names have done really well over the last couple weeks. You dont want to take out all your exposure, but take a little bit off. The stock is up over 4 1 2 in the last week. You can trim with that we know everyone is in with the travel trade. We see a lot of positive movement in that sector. Hilton is another name weve been trimming. It is up almost 10 in the last month, taking a little bit of money off the table. Then you have some arrows in your quiver to use for other parts of the market that you want to add to. Charles you mentioned some areas that have become popular, right . They became the popular trade like travel, hotels, things like that. Do you Pay Attention i was talking to Liz Ann Sonders about sentiment, yearend targets maybe it is good for bragging rights, things like that but how important is the behavioral part of this you see the bandwagon fills up and everyone loves a certain sector or stock . Right. Liz ann hit the nail on the head it is not a timing tool but it definitely gives you an idea where trends can go. Look at aai bull sentiment, you look at the put call ratio, all of these things tell you where consumers are going. The Michigan ConsumerSentiment Survey and they tell you as things get pretty hefty to one side of the scale you typically start to revert to see things going back. The question is what is going to be the trigger for the consumer to start pulling back a little bit . Is it going to be the fed saying theyre not done raising rates . Maybe. Maybe more recession fears coming to the surface . Well see. Charles ive got 30 seconds. You mentioned the fed. A hike, 99. 9 chance of that but you think we can get a glimmer, glimmer of hope maybe theyre almost done . I actually dont think were going to get that from them. I think they will stick to the story they have said. That they need to be restrictive for a long period of time. Theyre going to be data dependent. I think we may get the story of a pause at the september meeting but i dont think they will tell us that theyre done because they just need to see inflation come down and the Unemployment Rate move up a little bit. So there is less pressure from wages. Charles i gotcha. Victoria, great stuff. Thank you very much. My pleasure. Charles folks, chevron one of the big names that reported this morning. A big beat for them. Gary k. Talked about buying oil last time he was on. He has been doing pretty good. I want to get an update from him. Brian wesbury says the markets are having some dangerous signs. He is is here to explain for you next. I wanna hold you forever hey little bear bear. Im gonna love you forever to have and to hold from this day forward. You dont. Cmon, bear. You dont have to worry. Be by your side. Ill be there. With my arms wrapped around. Ah, these bills are crazy. She has no idea shes sitting on a goldmine. Well she doesnt know that if she owns a Life Insurance policy of 100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. Even a term policy. Even a term policy . Even a term policy find out if youre sitting on a goldmine. Call Coventry Direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect. Com. The first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. We just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. Start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. Start for free at godaddy. Com charles dont look now but the soft landing bandwagon is fill together brim. The question is, whatever happened to the recession . This is nuts, right . Remember, this is really crazy. October 17th of last year, i think the low was october 13, bloomberg, big fans of president biden. They said there was 100 chance of a recession. That is one of the things i think that led to so much negativity coming into the year but it wasnt just coming into the year. Only recently, look, the blue line is june. So you had over, almost 33 , almost 13 saying the first half of this year, the first half of this year we would see a recession. Starting to change their minds. In july that has gone down. Both of these numbers have gone down considerab