Has been able to do. Joining me now rnc chairman mike shields, and blake burman on the ground there in iowa. And, blake, ive got to start with you. What are people saying . What are you hearing about who might emerge here tonight . Well, theres a couple of different ways that you can really approach this because of this donald trumpless debate, trish. One is the way that the Ted Cruz Campaign is approaching this and hoping to emerge from this is basically altering the strategy. They tell me that yesterday when they were preparing for this debate tonight that they now expect their guy to be taking all the shots from all sides because donald trump is not up on that stage. Everybody here is trying to emerge whether either to manage the expectations game going into the last four days or so or just to try to boost their standings as they head into the caucuses on monday night. But the cruz folks to me that they are planning for a different kind of strategy kneading tonight. Especially as the relates to marco rubio. They feel that their guy is going to be taken on by rubio as those guys are running two and three in the polls. Thats one way to deal with it is to kind of. Change everything up. The other way is to go about it business as usual. And that is what the campaign of dr. Ben carson tells me is their plan heading no, i do not all of this. Even though donald trump is not going to be there. The Carson Campaign tells me that it will be business as usual for them in terms of debate strategy tonight. He actually the candidate himself dr. Carson joked about this with Maria Bartiromo yesterday morning saying if anything changes from him, that hes going to give himself a little bit more enthusiasm. Here was dr. Carson. Hopefully theyll be able to focus on everybody rather than a specific candidate. Thats going to help quite a bit. And as far as im concerned, you know, as you saw in the last debate, im a little more aggressive. Im going to get even more aggressive this time. Even more aggressive he says. Dr. Carson was also shaking up his staff over the last month or so. So that could have something to do with it. I tell you, trish, i was listening to talk radio here. One of the political shows just a little while ago and a lot of people are still just talking about trump cruz and those undecided voters where they might go. So if ted cruz has a good night tonight, maybe he is the one to emerge and potentially steal some of those donald trump potential undecided. Trish all right. Well be watching. Of course thanks so much, blake. I want to get back over to mike shields, and, mike, if you were running the rnc today, what would you be telling the candidates about how to position themselves going into tonight . Well, i think there are a couple of things about the Iowa Caucuses. People that donald trump and some of these campaigns need to go performed joni here in 2016 run a very good ground operation, use data to find those last voters you havent got an to who havent showed up in the last vote. I think the more the turnout, the more the propensity of the voters. I think all the candidates are scrambling around to do that. Evangelical voters play a huge role in iowa. Youve seen the last two candidates, one of them had strong evangelical backing. So going into this last debate, theres also the last part a lot of undecided voters. So this is a debate in iowa for iowaians, and i think in television tonight, a lot of voters are going to be making their minds four days from the caucus. Trish you know, it is very much neck and neck there. Donald trump and ted cruz. So, chuck, you know, one of the things i pointed to this rather historic move here by donald trump to be the only nonincumbent and winning these three early primary states. Could that come undone, though . What whats the danger should i say in peeking too soon . It is an interest, i love the Iowa Caucuses, its one of the few places just a few voters make such a huge difference, have to show up on a cold monday night, you have to stand in a gy gymnasium for several hours, yump has a lot of enthusiasm and supporters, but will they show up . Its going to be a testament to his campaign. If they do show up and even after tonight if theyre still throwing rocks at a empty podium, its going to change everything, and i dont think he will have peaked too soon, i think he may be unstoppable. Trish well, is there anything that can stop him at all, chuck . And ill let mike follow up on that as well. I think so. I think that if he doesnt have a stronger showing tonight and then also when you start seeing people fall out of the process. When you see the establishment coless around one person rebuke right now theyre all over the place and theres no antitrump or anticruz, and when that happens, a better show but will it be too late is the main question . Trish if donald trump does actually succeed in getting the nomination as chuck suggestions, mike, what does he need to do to win the election . Because theres some real concern that hes never going to be able to bring in minorities, hispanics, women in the way that, say, the democrats could. First of all, i dont think its over if we have one candidate win the first couple of states. This is a long process. The way the map is drawn out this time, i think theres always going to be an alternative candidate that is going to emerge to whoever the front return is. Thats been the history of these things. Theres going to be a lot of move and history for these days, and its going to feel this person is the nominee. Thats not really what has happened in the past. We have a lot of contests coming up in quick order here. Just on that point, i dont think one candidate is going to own this whole race by having won iowa. But, look, when i was at the rnc, we commissioned something called the growth and opportunity report, that was a look back at why we lost the 2012 elections. Mitt romney carried voters over the age of 30 by 1. 8 and under the age 30 by 5 million votes. Basically the voters recommendations got to appeal more to young women, to minorities, to latinos, and to whomever the candidate is. I believe the party is going to nominate somebody who can do that, and i think that is something on the voters minds, how did we win that election, how do we appeal in the future . And i think thats going to play a big role in the nominating contest and how we nominate. Trish its a challenge. The whole thing with primaries, youve got to play to the base. And in playing to the base, sometimes you alienate the middle, but you need the middle in order to win the national election. Trish, you could be a political consultant. I go around telling people this all the time. We have the same thing on our side if you run too far to the left, how do you bring them back in the middle . Tonight the republicans are having a debate in the bellwether and the person who is leading decided hes not going to show up. Thats how much the establishment is freaking out because theres someone not playing by the rules, making his own rules and ahead by 10 or 15 points in every state. I cant wait to see how this plays out because a lot of anxiety out there amongst republicans and democrats that are fed up. Trish good to see you. Former rnc chief of staff mike fields and chuck, im going to see you again in a little bit. Tonight is the big night. The gop contenders are going to be heading to our Sister Network. Fox news. It all starts at 7 00 p. M. Eastern. You do not want to miss it. All right. The economy sure to be a huge topic in tonights debate. And of course in this election. Investors have been feeling a lot of pain and especially since the start year s p is down over 8 , the dow down over 9 and the nasdaq down over 11 . Has a lot of voters very nervous. Some are even worried that a recession is in our future. Well, whats that going to mean for the shakeout here . Forbes media chairman and chairman himself steve forbes. Wonderful to see you. Great to be you, trish, thank you. Trish where do you think we come out in this . Do you think that recession is potentially in the cards for 2016 . And if so, what is it going to mean for the candidates . I dont think were going to go recession, i think were going to stay in second gear. However, the rest of the world is going to be under a lot of pressure. But this is why this debate tonight is so important is the political uncertainty. What is going to happen after november . Are we going to get pro growth policies, major reform on taxes, Federal Reserve and the like . Or are we going to continue with what we have is now . Or are we going to get a trade war . Trish yeah, theres two different schools of thought in terms of how you can get this economy going right now and thats whats decided in november. Well, the fact that Bernie Sanders has likes at all, even though its remote that hes going to get anywhere, thats what the markets have to factor in. Trish yeah, i dont get that one because americans really do socialism . Is that what you want . Do you want to be venezuela. The best Case Scenario you can be one of the netherlands countries but i dont think most americans would really go for that if you put it to them. Well, thats why bernie uses the socialist word less now. He sticks to things like free college. Free health care. Who can be against that . Oh, im going to raise your taxes, were going to save so much money in health care youre going to end up with a effective tax care. He disguises socialism as well as he should. Trish let me ask you about donald trump. Because, you know, youve been in the new york area for some time. You certainly run across him. He he is doing his own thing of course tonight. What are has your experience with donald trump . How do you regard him right now . As a voter, as a businessman, as someone who cares deeply about the economy. Well, i think what he has done is shown his gut is better than most Political Consultants in terms of running a campaign, which has been why hes a frontrunner. But in iowa they take those caucuses very seriously, theyre very proud of them, even if you dont participate, this is one of the things that makes iowa unique. And by not participating in the debate, donald trump is showing disrespect. Trish for iowa. For iowa. So put aside ratings. What people are going to be looking at. Theyre going to be looking at these other candidates wanting to see if they may want to go to them. Trish uhhuh. And candidates who skip big debates like Ronald Reagan in 1980 and others in the past have paid for it by losing caucuses. Trish do you think hes going to lose it . Its a very good chance ted cruz will win it unless something dramatic happens tonight or donald trump shows up at the end. Trish and do you think if ted cruz wins this is going to be the turning point . I think its going to be one of them we have to keep in mind is that this thing is extremely fluid. Iowa caucuses in the last three or four days you see in the past enormous swings and supports. Same thing in New Hampshire. So the key thing is trump can spin. Donald trump can spin that he lost iowa because unusual state, the caucuses are very complicated in all of that sort of thing. But then hes going to have to really double down on New Hampshire. He cannot lose iowa and then lose New Hampshire. Trish no. But it looks like hes going to win New Hampshire. I mean hes yes. Hes trish ahead in the polls right now. Yeah. Hes ahead and the question is who emerges from iowa. Not just if ted cruz finishes first but is there going to be a surprise third place finisher or someone that does better than expected . Trish because so many people have said this is pretty much locked up for donald trump. Hes going to win the nomination. It sounds like youre not full of that. Well, ive been around long enough to know if he wins iowa and New Hampshire, it is over. Trish uhhuh. But if he loses iowa and then wins New Hampshire, you still have a race and it all focuses on South Carolina and then the big primary states, the big march 1st when they have the scc primaries and caucuses, enormous number of primaries in one day, that will be critical. But if trump winces iowa, we have a race, if he wins iowa and New Hampshire, it is over. Trish who do you like the most . Im still on the dating game. Im still trying to find someone who combines what im looking for. Others have elements of it. Some im waiting for it to gel i hope. Trish well, tonight maybe well get some insight on that. Yes. Thank you, trish. Trish all right. Pulling up the welcome map. Deporting refugees after more than 600 women came forward saying middle eastern migrants sexually assaulted them. Is this all a warning for us . Plus later on the campaign Bernie Sanders poised for an attack. Only four days until the all important Iowa Caucuses hear his strategy to take down clinton after this the biggest challenge for Business Today is not competition, its protecting customer trust. Every day you read headlines about governments and businesses being hacked, emails compromised, and intellectual property being stolen. That is cybercrime, and it affects each and every one of us. Microsoft created the digital crimes unit to investigate and fight cyber crime. We use the microsoft cloud to visualize information, so we can track down the criminals. Using our advanced analytics tools, analysis that used to take days to run, we can now see in real time. And were building what we learn back into the cloud to make people and organizations safer. When it comes to the cloud, trust and security are paramount. Our passion is making life tougher for cyber criminals, and making it safer for you and your customers. Trish police have arrested a man with guns at disneyland paris. The suspect a 28yearold man was arrested at the entrance of a Disneyland Paris Hotel and was carrying a suitcase with two handguns, a box of shells, and a crayon. The man was stopped after the suitcase went through an xray machine and was arrested without resistance. The police are now holding his companion, a woman. Meanwhile i want to turn to other security concerns happening in berlin, germany. Law enforcement official telling fox news that there are hundreds of potentially violent radical islamists just in the city of berlin alone. Including at least 50 former isis fighters. And throughout germany federal Law Enforcement estimates that there are 700,000 active fundamentalists who want to return to the original ways of islam. This as german lawmakers vote to make it easier to deport criminal migrants and sweden is now gearing up to deport up to 80,000 refugees. Where are they going to deport them to . Whos going to take these people . And, by the way, should this be a warning us to considering president obama wants to bring 10,000 refugees right into this country from syria and Hillary Clinton wants 65,000. Kt mcfarland joins me now with her analysis of all of this. I mean here your plot doing a good thing. Opening the door saying were going to welcome a million of these migrants into germany and then what do we learn . New years eve more than 600 women were sexually assaulted by these people in communities throughout germany. What is europe going to do about dealing with this . Theyre in a huge crisis. Why . They cant send people back. In germany alone, half of the refugees dont have passports, dont have papers. So where are you going to send them back to . The other thing is a good half of them disappeared. They dont know where they are so the numbers you talked about of the potential radical islamists who are in germany already. Who knows how many are there that you dont have track of. And the other thing its now going to fracture europe. Why . Because they want to go to germany, they want to go to sweden trish why not stay in italy because theres no jobs, not the kind of infrastructure to give them housing, social, with of benefits. They all want to go north. They think theyre going to be welcomed and well treated and given a lot of goodies. On the other hand when theyre getting sent back from sweden or from germany, where are they going to go . Theyre going to go back Toit Lieberman theyre going to go back to greece, which cant afford them. Which already has huge Economic Crises problems of their own. So im concerned what were going to see not only today but Flash Forward six months when you have another wave of refugees in the spring, you could have tens of thousands roaming around europe with no place to stay, no paperwork, nobody wants them. Trish and we havent even talked about all the isis fighters that they say are now in germany that they believe migrated to germany. How does this change the fabric of europe . Well, you know, the numbers that you see where theyre saying, well, its only maybe a million refugees in germany and in the population 30 million, what does that matter . Thats not the number to look at. Look at the age cohorts. So if you have a million refugees who are the ages of 18 to 35 and male, what does the male cohort and the German Society . Less than 10 . So youre looking at a really big population demographic crisis going forward. Trish of young men. Yeah. And, you know, think about it. How fair is this to the people who were the refugees . Theyre going into an environment they dont speak the language, they dont know the culture, they dont have jobs, far better to keep them in their own neighborhoods, own part of the world than bringing them into europe where weve talked about this culture clash. They know have pamphlets that theyre handing out in germany which show a big x. Uhhuh. Trish red x through a heres one of them right here. A man is trying to grab the woman there on the tush and theres an x through it because theyre trying to say, listen, you cannot grab women just because theyre not dressed in a berka. Yeah. Its a real clark of cultures i think that gets worse. Now, we dont have the same problems. First of all, we dont have the migration of refugees here, at least not in the same kinds that they do in europe. And we also assimilate refugees. Were the land of opportunity, the land of immigrants. The problem is multiculturism and Political