Made a recovery with more consistent growth than the overall economy. But as recession risks grow, what will happen to housing. Jimmy, welcome to the show. There may not be anybody better than you to tell us whats happening in housing. It many a mixed bag. The good part is Interest Rates are at historic lows. You can get a mort game for 3. 5, 3. 25 interest. If you understand mortgages, the interest and principle on a mortgage are the principle payments, they are the affordability part of owning a home. If Interest Rates go up, its hard for people to afford homes. If Interest Rates went up 100 basis points. That would be an increase of 20 to 25 in payments payments. That would knock a lot of people out of the housing markets. With Interest Rates being very low, thats good for housing. On the other hand, we have issues right now the best mort ghaidges my lifetime. The highest quality mortgages, fanny, freddy, fha, va. They all raised their qualification standard which eliminate a lot of people from the housing market. When i say there is a mixed bag, some people can qualify, some people cant qualify. Even if you can qualify, there is the separate issue, does the family feel prepared to own a home. Its the biggest financial obligation of their lives. Gary i know you have been one of the greatest investors in the world. There are a lot of viewers out here. You know many people took the crisis and opted to rent as opposed to buy. What should people be looking at if the they want to buy . What should they be thinking about about making the investment in a property . Owning a home is owning an illliquid a he set thats not ease lire disposed of. But owning a home is the mostly kid real estate in the home because the underlying mort gangs are liquid mortgages are liquid in america. But i suggest before a family makes that investment, can they qualify . And even if they can qualify, do they feel comfortable with adding this additional economic burden. I heard you speak many times about housing being the heartbeat of the economy. And housing lifts the tide of Small Businesses because most Small Businesses are tied into housing. Where are we now in the housing cycle . Are we headed up . Are we pla towing or heading down . Let me give you have my personal view. If you read the papers, they say the last time we had a good housing market, there were 1. 2 million Single Family starts. I believe 300,000 to 400,000 of those starts were because we had mortgages going back six to seven years that no longer exist in our economy. They were arm mortgages, negative amortization. And subprime. And subject rrp prime will get people in trouble. If you take 300,000 to 400,000 off that 1. 2 million number, we are currently at around 530,000. Two years ago we were at 310,000. So there is a lot of room to maneuver upwards. I like the trend. Gary if the next president comes to you in january and says, jimmy, i want to grow this economy 4 and i know the housing can be a big push there, what can he or she do to make that happen . Traditionally what washington has done, and washingtons power over mortgages is greater today than at any time in our lifetime because gary is that a good thing or bad thing . As long as they are consistent in issuing highquality mortgages i dont think its a bad thing. Gary they are the mortgage issuer since the crisis. Fannie mae, freddie mac, fha, va. They issue 90 of the mort gauges. If the president came to me and said what can we do to help housing . I would say ease up on the qualification standards. Gary we dont want to go back to where we were in 2008. It doesnt mean you will go back to where you were. You had bad mortgages. Gary we moved from here where anyone could get a liar loan. But we have gone so much in terms of restrictions and regulation that we have to move it off. Qualification standard can be relaxed. One of the areas that will have to be dealt with is the firsttime buyer. The firsttime buyer used to be 40 of new home buyers. Whats going on . How many much these young people have college debt. And the College Debt Comes in front of the mortgage debt. How are they going to deal with that issue . Thats critical for a first homebuyer. Gary you are an independent director of black rock, great asset manager. You made a significant purchase of black rock common stock after the crash. What do you think about the stock market right now and the overall value of stocks in general . My general sense is the stock market is a reflection of very low Interest Rates. And as Interest Rates if Interest Rates go up, if our economy goes better, it will be hard for the stock market to do very well. Thats my own feeling. Gary jimmy, thank you for joining us. Well be right back with more from wall street week. Announcer up next our fox business allstars battle it out over the economy. Are we headed for a recession and how will the election impact the market and your money. Then as we celebrate fathers day we hear from a special guest. When a moment turns romantic why pause to take a pill . Or stop to find a bathroom . Cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. Do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas for pulmonary hypertension, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. Do not drink alcohol in excess. Side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. To avoid longterm injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. 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Anthony welcome back to wall street week and welcome our fox business all stars, sandra smith and charlie gasparino. There is a miserable jobs reports. A downward revision in the gdp reports. Sandra its a red flag. I look for the market to tell me whether we are in a recession or entering a recession. The jobs report was dismal. We are seeing the average monthly job creation in 2016 less than 200,000. One could make the argument by looking at markets like crude oil, saying maybe these calls are overblown. How do you get north of 55 in crude oil. We have an abundance supply but energy and Commodity Prices still keep going higher. Charlie no offense. I know you have been on wall street. I dont know how you look at the markets and ascertain recession. The market are not correlated to the Economic Data we see. The stock market as 18,000 while we have almost no sandra are you saying supply and demand is not at play in what else determines the price of oil . Charlie sometimes Interest Rates do. Investors buy commodities. Sandra nothing drives the price of a commodity other than supply and demand. You are making the case of why Interest Rates upset demand, gary. Charlie Interest Rates dont affect the demand for oil but the stock market historically can predict recessions, but the fed doesnt because it keeps pumping in the money. If we print a negative gdp number between now and november, there may be a negative gdp number and we may not even print it right. What will that do to the election . Gary if Hillary Clinton is going to defend the obama economy, that competency argument if the economy falls out, which i think Building Blocks are going that way. Ththe competency argument goes down. The question is why doesnt he hit on that more. Thats a psychological question. We need a shrink to ask why hes not hitting on that. Gary its very, very early. Sandra the number one concern of the American Voter is the economy and jobs. Why do you think donald trump anthony you will see a blueprint for a renewal in america. And it will be acrosstheboard jobs. Charlie lets curry out more economy. Tone less curry, moremy. Charlie anthony do you think the arm person who is going to vote feels good . The answer is no. The arm person is more concerned about the economy than anything . Sandra the latest gallup poll shows the economy is the number one driver. The Affordable Care act. Look at the report Goldman Sachs put out about the involuntary parttime employment rates going up. Those are people who want to be in fulltime jobs that arent. Goldman sachs was able to tie that directly to the Affordable Care act. Gary what donald trump has Charlie Donald trump has a fastball 80 count middle of the plate and hes winning. In order to make he had people with pretty high credentials. Gary charlie, you have got best source that i know on the street. So yes or no recession before the election . Charlie i would say then who would be president . Gary it does matter if we are officially in a reseg for donald to win. It matters if he can execute explaining it. Sandra im going to talk about the yale economist who called it last year. He said the economy will determine the election. Anthony the republican candidate could win. Gary thank you sandra and charlie for joining us. Wall street week will be right back. Announcer we are celebrating fathers day with a special guest. Garys dad. Stay tuned to wall street week. Get ready for the rio Olympic Games by switching to xfinity x1. Show me gymnastics. X1 lets you search by sport, watch nbcs highlights and catch every live event on your tv with nbc sports live extra. Im getting ready. Are you . X1 will change the way you experience nbcuniversals coverage of the rio Olympic Games. Call or go online today to switch to x1. To welcome back to wall street week. Sunday we celebrate fathers day. I wanted to bring on a man who is my personal mentor and a legend in the financial inindustry. Im honored to introduce my father jeremy gary kaminsky. Dad, let me ask you a question many people asked you the past several weeks. I invested in the stock market in 2000. I listened to experts the last 16 years. I havent made a lot of money. There has been tremendous volatility. You have been investing since 193. Why should people invest in stocks given the vot volatility and low returns. There is a big continues between the stock market and individual investing. The longer you own an equity that has rising income and growth, the probability is that that gives you the greatest part of your total return in equities. Gary distributions and capital gains. Correct. There is volatility. But off the years, wellmanaged companies create more wealth thoonter Assets Available to most individual. Gary you are talking about active management. Its been a very difficult period for active managers as opposed to finding the index. The reason for that has to do with the index and people using your phrase, gary, closet indexes. Mathematically 55 of the index underperforms the index. People who track the index by definition have to have the 55 . Our objective, our whole thing over the years has been to look for the 45 . That top 45 is going to vary depending on the index where things are over the 50plus years i have been doing this. Anthony over the 50 years wall street has changed a lot. What advise would you give to a millennial talking. Coming to wall street and building a career. What would you say . I would certainly tell someone that if they are not going to get pleasure out of helping individual, they shouldnt be in the business. Going into business only to make money, the business is going to be under very significant stress, profitability, et cetera, for some time. They will get through it. Getting threw it will be fine. But in the end, if you make a difference 20 your client and you get satisfaction from that, the rest will come along. Tone rrp i hav anthony i have known your son for 35 years, but you have known him a little l longer. What was he like growing up. The calls we got from the Nursery School was gary comes to School Every Day and every day he has i different costume and hes rambunctious. Anthony my mom said i took the bottle until i was 4 years old which was embarrassing. A shoutout to my father who gave me my work ethic. When did you pull him into the business. When did you think he would become successful on wall street . I didnt pull gary into the business. We never thought fatherson would Work Together give what happened to my taught were his father. Gary and michael both started with something else. Both decided to go into investing. Gary went to nyu business school, he worked at a hedge fund, at one point in the summer of 91 he called and said lets talk about going to Work Together. It so happens at that time i was in the middle of negotiating to go to work with neu berks r gerks rbergman. They had a rule, antinepotism so i stopped the negotiations. Gary we started with 50 million assets under management and grew that from 92 to 13 billion. Not only was it a lot of fun working together, but we obobviously did a great job for the clients and growing the business. Anthony do you find managing him as an adult easier. Absolutely not. Anthony what advice would you give to Young Fathers about their kid and aspirations for their child. Having a child is a conscious decision. If you are going to be a father, then you want to spend as much time as you can in the first 7 or 8 years with your child, whether its a son or daughter. Those will come back that time will be quality time that years later will turn out to be key. And in doing that, the values that will be natural, that will come across will hopefully be picked up and improved because what you want is each kid and each generation to be better. Anthony jerry, you have been a wonderful mentor to me as well. Thank you. Gary happy fathers day to all of you out there. Anthony next week our guests. Morgan stanley Wealth Management head of Investment Solutions be been hu nerks eke. Well see you next week. The economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, the lowest taxes in decades, and new infrastructure for a new generation attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. Like in rochester, with worldclass botox. And in buffalo, where medicine meets the future. Let us help grow your companys tomorrow today at business. Ny. Gov [bassist] two late nights in blew an amp. But good nights. Sure,musics why we do this,but its still our business. We spend days booking gigs, then weve gotta put in the miles to get there. 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Now a person is able to start a business, and employ somebody for the first time. The microsoft cloud helped us to bring banking to ten Million People in just two years. Its transforming our world. Announcer we talk about anything that affected people and their money. From the fox business addr headquarters in new york city, the new wall street week. Anthony welcome to wall. Im anthony scaramucci. Gary im gary kaminsky. Since the height of the