In august from a year ago is americans pay more for everything from electricity to shelter to food with Grocery Prices seeing their largest 12 month increase since 1979 democrats celebrating unless with white house heralding the passage of their inflation reduction act. The president claiming measures cutting costs for american families. The bill cut cost for families, help reduce inflation at the Kitchen Table because thats what they look at, how much are they monthly bills and how much they pay for necessities gave Breathing Room as my dad would say. Paul Wall Street Journal columnist dan henninger, Kim Strassel And Mary and a stray zia ogrady. Why do you think the Financial Markets and investors were caught and surprised by the Inflation Number . I think the main thing right here as Milton Friedman said effects of Monetary Policy give us a long variable lacks so when you have the feds tightening the responsibly economy will take a while to feed and so thats one problem and i think the other is the fed probably hasnt gone far enough yet. The rate that matters here is the terminal rate, where this will end. Now the market is starting to price in a little over 4 but until now the market has been expecting this would be easier to solve and i think the numbers we saw last week tell us it will be tough. Paul dan, what your forecast here . Is the fed going to do 75 basis points in september or 100 as some suggest . Where you think the fed will go . Is a 4 or more . I think 75 basis points rather than 100. The important thing is the fed is completely targeted on reducing inflation. As opposed to the Biden White House which is completely politicized the subject of inflation, they are talking about two different subjects. The white house is just all about transferring money to people and they are not transferring that much money with this immediately in the short term, its mostly longterm subsidies and pay payments. The fed is obviously laser focused on getting inflation down, certainly below wage increases people are getting because inflation at this level away peoples wage increases so i think it will continue so long as Price Increases keep happening so long as the market getting bad news is it did this week, the fedex news decline in delivery suggesting online orders are falling off, it was a shocker. We were given to believe people were spending money, it suggests maybe they are not. I think we will get 75 basis points. Paul i guess theres good news for the white house in the fall in the last couple months Gasoline Prices, averaging 5 a gallon for a while nationwide and now 3. 70. The white house clearly is touting this as a big victory, the results of its policies. I think it has more to do with global issues and Global Demand and supply but nonetheless, how big a deal as gas prices and how much does undercut the damage politically from overall inflation . The reality is even as gas prices have fallen, they are significantly higher than when mr. Biden was inaugurated, something the white house didnt mention, consumers certainly no. If you look at the Inflation Numbers it was the drop in gas prices that kept it from being even higher and if you exclude that, other core prices were persistently driven by inflation and those of the numbers americans put in their pocketbook overall, the Grocery Prices, shelter prices, food and clothing prices, going out to eat services, those remain troublesome high and maybe even growing higher so they got a bit of a reprieve because of gas prices the future months that may not happen in the numbers could look even worse. Paul the fedex ceo saying it looks like we will have a global recession. We know europe is pretty much already in recession, chinas not doing great. The u. S. Not yet seemingly in recession, its hard to say exactly. How do you see the forecast . Are we at minimum going to skirt the edges of recession . Will the damage be deeper . Weve said all along the only way you can bring down inflation after so many years of too much monetary accommodation is tighten Financial Market conditions and thats whats happening right now. As that happens, it will impact demand. Thats one reason Gasoline Prices are coming down is Demand Destruction but it will impact earnings and thats what we see with fedex so what the fed is trying to do is let the air out of the bubble and i think its pretty clear we will have a recession, the big debate now is there are recessions and there are recessions so how deep will it go . Part of it has to do with how long the fed will have to keep Interest Rates at an elevated level to bring out the inflation. Thats the unknown here. Paul when we come back, 22 republican governors call onti President Biden to withdrawrt student loan e given us plan. Former indiana governor Andfu Purdue Universittuy president m. Daniels about runway College Costs and failed federal student loan system. Should new astepro allergy. No Allergy Spray is faster. Its and astepro is the first and only 24hour steroid free Allergy Spray. Now without a prescription. Astepro and go. Twentytwo republican governors sent a letter to President Biden this week asking him to withdraw his plan to cancel up to 20000 in debt for Student Loan Borrowers and get rewards the rich and punishes the poor. The letter comes us the two cost of the plan comes into focus with one estimate putting the price take at 1 trillion. Earlier i spoke to indiana governor and Purdue University president Mitch Daniels about the president plan and what he calls the bankrupt federal student loan system. Welcome, appreciate your coming in. You wrote recently for us the student loan policy a flawed concept, botched execution draped in duplicity. Strong words. Why dont you elaborate on that . I think from the outset it was a mistake for the risk on the federal tax payer, none of the schools which are to be like ours, ought to be prepared to stand behind both the ability and willingness of graduates to live up to their debt obligations. I think from the execution you will theres one mistake after another, a huge one was the federal government taking it over in 2010 promising heres one of the elements that i think was less than truthful, promising it would earn a profit for taxpayers when its turned into colossal loss. I think its one of the most unfortunate Public Policy endeavors weve seen. Not saying it was never a good idea to help young people achieve Higher Education but there were better ways, more honest ways more physically responsible ways. Paul was the Role Colleges and universities have played here . Youve been in politics, you know why politicians did this, they are buying both but colleges and universities have gone into this, a lot of people suspect by raising their tuition. It is that the role they played . It is, a responsive role. Its been well documented now thoroughly researched, the only doubt is the degree to which colleges have pocketed a percentage of any increase in subsidies. And made it easier for them to raise prices, at least until recently little or no, lets call it consumer resistance. Ive told present friends in business for a long time, heres a racket we should have gone into, selling was viewed as a necessity, got to have that college degree, no measure meant of quality, you cant tell which school produces the best education and therefore People AssociatedSticker Price with quality so people had total Pricing Power on the federal government and kept infusing the environment more money. They did the human thing and pocketed much of it through their total Pricing Power. Paul Human At Purdue A Decade and youve kept tuition flat which is remarkable with everybody raising them how . I like to claim i confessed in the piece that you folks published, id like to claim we had a wonderful brilliant insights no one else had. No, its simply what one prioritizes. Here we believe it was implicit in our mission, not everyone knows the university is a landgrant school, our assignment from president blinken and those who invented this concept was to spread Higher Education benefits as widely as possible and to us, its meant trying to stay affordable. I will say its proven to be, over time a good business, to because its associated with, the Market Research we do with our students, associated with dramatic gross in our student body, 30 over the last ten years. Number one, fulfilling that mission. Number two, its made it easier through greater revenue to avoid Price Increases. Paul its fascinating. The Student Loan Program cancellation they cost over a trillion dollar overall. The incentives to keep doing this, raising tuition and subsidizing and continuing, theres no reform in the program now, if you were in congress, what would you push to change the policy to we dont have this happen time and again . First suggest overruling executive decisions, we hope some court grants ending so some plaintiff and save the American People and note the same younger generations on the Receiving End of this unbearable debt burden thats where one would start. I do believe there needs to be substantial sharing of any default cost by the school, the diploma should note something about market readiness to be productive and earn ones way in the world, also the character to live up to ones obligations. If it doesnt, to me, its a breach of warranty and there ought to be repercussions from the on the school, not all on the taxpayer. Paul all right, thanks for coming in, its a fascinating idea. We will see of people follow through. Appreciate your coming in. When we come back Chuck Schumer gets his man in New Hampshire. Retire general wins the republican nomination for Senate Republican nomination for Senate Thanks in part to millions spent by democrats. With that strategy backfire p novemberat . Democrats are getting the Senate Opponent they wanted in New Hampshire after Retired General don one the gop nomination tuesday in part to the 3. 2 Million Senate majority Chuck Schumers Political Action committee spent on as boosting candidacy. Democrats poorly spent 19 million across the state in the primaries hopping up socalled republicans they think they can beat in november. New hampshires republican governor chris warning their strategy could backfire. And some of the races they will get they asked for. They are, they going to get what you could call extreme candidates when he in november because people are fed up with inflation and gas prices, i think this will massively backfire on the democrats. Paul we are back with kim strassel and dan henninger. Dan, what do you think about this proposition . Are republicans rallying behind it now that he has the nomination uniting behind him. Could he be right that this will backfire . He certainly could be right thats going to happen. This race in New Hampshire between general doug and current senator, its fascinating. Ill start by noting back in april First University of New Hampshire did a poll, hassan had a one point lead in april when it was teed up as an extremist. Fastforward to now, he won the primary, the first thing he does is disavow the idea the last election was stolen distance between himself and donald trump and now hes pivoting toward running untraditional things like economy and energy production, crime and the rest. Hes pretty articulate about those things. One does have to ask New Hampshire voters will appreciate the Cynicism Pivoting from trump but it looks to me that race will be competitive the governor could be right. Donnie could well end up in the u. S. Senate. Paul hard to get more cynical, democrats trying to get support to win the republican nomination. Lets turn to pennsylvania where John Federman is running Lieutenant Governor against doctor oz, the television position. Hes catching up, he was down for quite a while and making an issue of federmans health and fitness for office after he suffered a stroke a few months back. Is that fair . It is a smart strategy and fair. Voters deserve to see people debate and the reality is federman has been hiding from the people and by doctor oz focusing on this, raising questions about his health, its obviously a Working Strategy because not only are using polls change tighten up but federman has now decided to debate, theres complex questions about the format of the debate, it might be unprecedented it will only happen after i would note Absentee Ballots are going out and people are already voting but this was his hook to get in the news and get attention on his campaign and thats one reason you are seeing things tighten up. Paul federman has his image as the man of the people, he wears a hoodie, note a week where doctor oz portrays as an elite but federman has vulnerabilities in terms of policies. He endorsed medicare for all, hostile to fracking in the past, walking away from those, why doesnt always exploit that . Defunct the police movement, a long history of his advocating pardoning violent criminals. Doctor oz is trying to make an issue out of this but the problem has been getting attention and has less money and less outside support. The hope is now that hes got this in the news, heal pivot to other issues because this is a very progressive candidate whose out of step with pennsylvania, federman. Paul lets turn to Lindsey GrahamSouth Carolina senators proposal for national ban on abortion at 15 weeks. Some republicans arent sure its the right strategy but what you think of that in terms of raw politics of proposing that right now in this election . I dont think much of it. There were pelicans out there having trouble with it. Don bullock New Hampshire and doctor oz in pennsylvania. They are running hard on the issue of abortion. Federman especially in the suburbs of the adelphia was up for grabs. Doctor oz put distance between themselves and Lindsey Graham, its difficult for them to answer is they are both running for the senate but i think senator grahams proposal is going to make life uncomfortable for Senate Candidates out there trying to negotiate their way through sensible policy towards abortion and states that have voters who think should be nuanced policy toward it so it seems like a big mistake on his part. Paul i dont understand the desire to Lindsey Graham and the right to Life Movement to nationalize the Abortion Issue when for years theyve been saying that he go back to the states, but the individual candidates tailor their response to the states. Thats the other problem, it upends the argument conservatives have made for a long time a solid civil argument not too mention the fact that this is constitutionally dubious what hes proposing as well. Paul all right, well see how it plays. Meet for the first time then meet for the first time then star russian president facesgh pquestions over moscows faltering invasion. Chinese president xi jinping and russian president Vladimir Putin met in prison thursday for the First Time Since the start of the ukraine work with putin acknowledging beijing has questions and concerns about the nearly seven month old conflict. The meeting comes in the wake of major Battlefield Setbacks from moscow with Ukrainian Forces making stunning advances in the northeast reclaiming large swaths of territory. Some u. S. Officials say could market Turning Points in the work. Lets bring in seth jones, Senior Vice President at the center for Strategic International studies and author of the book three dangerous men. Russia, china, iran and the rise of irregular warfare. Good to see you. The last time they met