743 for trump, 517 for cruz, 143 for kasich. The magic number to clinch the nomination before the convention in july is 1237. Tonight, the political analysts say it is looking more and more likely that no candidate will reach that threshold, forcing the party to select a nominee at a contested convention. Just about 24 hours ago, senator ted cruz predicted his victory in wisconsin would change this race. Tonight is a turning point. It is the rallying cry. It is the call from the hardworking men and women from wisconsin to the people of america. And as a result of tonight, as a result of the people of wisconsin defying the media, defying the pundits, i am more and more convinced that our campaign is going to earn the 1237 delegates needed to win the republican nomination. Joining us tonight on all of the fallout, a pollster for the r. Principles pac who spent 2 million to defeat donald trump. But we begin with bill hem tore take us through the remainder of this race to win the nomination. My friend, bill, good to see you. This is not science, okay . Good. This is just like a road map. I dont know if its a paved road or a dirt road, but well find out. We crunched the numbers. Of the remaining contests we have, trying to figure out how this could go. Wyoming comes up, we think cruz will get most of those. Then to new york. We think based on polling, and well be generous in some areas and we will not be so generous in other areas to find out how donald trump gets to the magic number right now with wyoming. New york state, if he gets 50 across the districts, he gets all the delegates. The week after that, rhode island, were giving Trump Delegates here, connecticut, delaware, pennsylvania, maryland. So now we are at 925, 312 shy of the magic number. So in may, first tuesday, indiana, looks good for trump. A week later is west virginia, winner take all. Trump gets that based on our survey to date. That same day, however, nebraska is winner take all. We think that for the moment will go to ted cruz. Now we move third week in may, oregon is a little bit of a split right now. So well divy it up. Same for washington state. Now you move to the 7th of june with five contests remaining. We think on that day, ted cruz will get winner take all month, same for south dakota. New mexico is a 50 50 split. Two on the map still. California, trump could get 100 degrees and that same day new jerseys winner take all which puts trump at 1,191. 46 shy of the magic number of 1237. So megyn, now you see the tight road that he must ride with about 150 unbound delegates that well get to on another night still in the offing. This will change, we just dont know how. Fascinating. Bill, great to see you. So in the hours since fox news called the wisconsin race for senator cruz, the Trump Supporters said this is just a blip on the radar. While those who support the senator call it a turning point in this race. Joining me now, ed and david. Good to see you both. Ed, what is the evidence that this is a turning point as opposed to an anomaly . Because in wisconsin, ted cruz had a popular governor backing him, your Group Spending a lot of money against him. And it was an electorate that many people say looks very different from the other electorates and that could be motivated in particular by local talkradio, which isnt as big a factor in other states coming up. It probably does increase the likelihood this is going to go to a contested convention. But more importantly, what weve been seeing are the numbers and we talked about this before, is that theres been this growing intense day amongst the onethird of the Republican Voters that are no protrump, in fact are antitrump. Its grown almost to the point that it matches the intensity and the enthusiasm of the onethird that is for trump. What you saw in wisconsin was that the 35 he got matched the 35 hes gotten as an average in all these primaries. Theres always been a question on how high can his ceiling go . And whether you look at the popular vote, which has him at 38 or the average of all the primaries, where hes at 35 , he definitely is below that 40 mark, which means that theres a very large component out there thats against him. And as we talked again before, its driven very much by married women. One of the surprises in wisconsin last night was that there was no gender gap. We saw about two weeks ago, married women with children at home becoming more negative towards trump. But in our polling, we had women 15 points against trump and men only 5 points. Last night they matched that 13 negative mark. Thats the thing, david, there was no gender gap, because the men also turned on him outside of that core group of supporters. So who knows what that can be attributed to. But the point is, with trump having several big contests coming up, and his numbers look great in new york, but that state will be proportional, what does he do to bring people above and beyond that 35 , 38 into the fold . Megyn, remember, florida was 46 . New york looks like its over 50 as it stands right now and hes about 35 points ahead of ted cruz. This is a red herring, this idea that theres a ceiling. 95 delegates in new york just to tell the audience, he had a few grand slams where he cleared 40 , massachusetts, florida, nevada, but taken together hes won 37 of the vote so far. Megyn, it is ultimately all about the delegates. I like bills assessment. I would disagree with one thing. He said that california would give trump 100 delegates. I think its going to go much higher and much closer to the 172. If you use that calculation based on what bill assessed, that will get him over the 1237. Im telling you right now, this establishment endorsement of ted cruz will end up creating a huge problem for him. You have jeb bush, scott walker, Lindsey Graham endorsing him. What does that tell voters that think ted cruz is an outsider that theory suggests that he needs to win without any sort of main stream republican support. You know, hes not going to win with just glenn beck behind him. Whoever the nominee is going to be needs to add more republicans into the mix. But why are they supporting him . Why are they supporting ted cruz instead of donald trump . They feel hes going to be mallable to match his platform. We get to the convention and bring in donald trump is calling ted cruz the trojan horse now. The interesting thing about all this establishment, were talking about where the voters, the everyday voters across the country are voting. And the everyday voters across the country, 62 have not voted for donald trump. This is not an establishment conspiracy. Hes not getting the support. At this point, in george w. Bushs campaign, his first campaign, he was getting 65 . U make of the a poll just came out today that shows trump at 52 in new york among the republicans. Those same polls youre getting into what i do every day. Polls change, as the time gets closer and people focus. These same polls had trump at 65 just a few weeks ago. Just like going into wisconsin, they had him up by ten points four weeks out. Yeah, but this is off all the controversy that was generated over the past few weeks in the Trump Campaign. That was an april 3rd to 5th poll. One of the interesting things is all this talk about last week is what cost trump wisconsin. He was ten points down before the last week even happened. It just added strokes to the negative feelings many voters had. It didnt drive it or sell it. This is not something that happened he lost wisconsin because of the establishment and his bad week that he had out there. Go ahead, david. Wisconsin is a hyper local problem for him. It happened because the people have a great passion for their governor, scott walker. They have their theyre big on the talk radio guys who hammered donald trump and he conceded in the end. He lost by about what the polls were showing, 10 versus 13. Hes going to move on and as i said before, new york is a big deal. If he takes 95 delegates there, from that point forward, the task for ted cruz will be impossible. Its tough to get 95 though, given how new york is proportional. Hes over 50 . You would rather have Donald Trumps number at this point. Great to see you both. Just a couple weeks ago, pbs host tavis smiley seemed to be supporting donald trump, but hes now taken to calling him a racial arsonist. Tonight, well question smiley on that change and get reaction from herman cain. Plus, an eye opening report on whats being called the shadow primary and how it could change this race. Rnc chair Reince Priebus joins us. A former trump supporter has issued a threat to any delegate thinking of stealing the vote away from donald trump. Thats just ahead. Were going to have protests, demonstrations. Demonstrations. We heres the plan. You want a family and a career, but most of the time you feel like youre trying to wrangle a hurricane. The rest of the time, theyre asleep. Then one day, hr schedules a meeting with you out of the blue. And its the worst 19 minutes of your career. But you dont sweat it because you and your advisor have prepared for this. And when the best offer means youre moving to the middle of nowhere, the boys say they hate the idea. But you pretend its not so bad. And years later at thanksgiving, when one of them says what hes thankful for most, is this house, you realize you didnt plan for any of this you wouldnt have done it any other way. With the right financial partner, progress is possible. Family road trip fun check engine. Not fun but, youve got hum. 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The candidates know when they arrive in cleveland this july, some uncommitted delegates will be able to vote for any candidate. That means that rounding up these delegates now could be the key to winning the nomination in a close fight. We have Reince Priebus with us on that. But for the first, in a series of kelly file reports on the convention in cleveland, we go to our chief washington correspondent james rosen on the shadow primary. James . The demands of this socalled shadow primary this summer are increasingly being reflected in the travel schedules of the two leading candidates. Ted cruz heads on saturday to colorado, where he peeled away six delegates in Congressional District assemblies this past weekend. Gop frontrunner donald trump is also planning to visit colorado in coming days. Trumps team acknowledges the cruz operation is more evolved, that the billionaire real estate mogul is playing catchup. But they maintain the state delegations are playing ted cruz. What makes you think that when it gets to this third and fourth ballot that the cruz folks are counting on, that theyre not going to be voting for mitt romney or paul ryan or marco rubio . Theyre going to be like ted who . Theyre using ted right now as a vessel to try to stop donald trump. Reporter conventional delegates are usually local republican activists, creatures of the establishment. In exchange for enduring the dreariest winter meetings, the largest rule they receive is their attendance at the party convention. The number of delegates who become unbound surges from 5 on the first ballot to 59 on the second. Since these delegates are part of a local power structure that includes a governor or state party chairman, some question how unbound they really become. I do think that the delegate, since theyve been so active in the party, theyre going to have i think they might be influenced somewhat by party officials. But at the same time, theyre their own individual person who will decide straight on who they want to support. Reporter we also know that the rnc has been Holding Meetings with key operatives here in washington to plot out the mechanics of a contested convention. Those meetings themselves have been very, very shadowy. Thats the theme. Joining me now, Republican NationalCommittee Chairman reince prix priebus. Thanks for being here. It sheds a lot of light on ted cruzs belief that he can wrap up 1237 before the first vote. So the way he would need to do it, because hes probably not going to get 80 of the vote going forward, is to get the other delegates, like the delegates in pennsylvania that arent really bound, and you tell me whether he could also get rubio and kasichs delegates if those two guys got out, or at least rubios. Well, certainly. Its sort of two Different Things going on. On one hand, you have the j allocation of delegates. In most cases, those 25 delegates, they could hate candidate x, but on one or two ballots, they have to vote for candidate x. The same is true for people who are unbound on the first ballot. So if a candidate is really close, they will have an opportunity, if thats a couple hundred unbound delegates on the first ballot. Say marco delegates or someone elses delegates to convince them to come on board on the first ballot. Now already, were hearing complaints by the trump camp that this election is going to be stolen from him. And we played the sound bite earlier of a Longtime Donald Trump associate and former operative on his campaign, roger stone, who came out and said this, and he doubled down on it today. Listen. If trump does not run the table on the rest of the primaries and caucuses, were looking at a very, very narrow path in which the king makers go all out to cheat, to steal, and to snatch this nomination from the candidate who is overwhelmingly selected by the voters, which is why i urge supporters to come to cleveland. Join us. Were going to have protests, demonstrations. We will disclose the hotels and the room numbers of those delegates who are directly involved this the steal. Your thoughts on that, mr. Chairman . Well, i mean, its hes a smart person, but its just totally over the line. And were going to have 50 million in security. Well make sure that every delegate is safe. Heres the thing. The majority wins. The majority wins everywhere across this country. Its what our Founding Fathers believed in. It was good enough for lincoln. Its good enough in 2016. Its not a matter about who gets a plurality but who get as majority. You have to have a majority of delegates on the floor and the delegates have the ultimate say empowered by the voters in those states. Are you going to do anything to the rules if trump or somebody else for that matter is 50 short or 100 short of 1237, are you going to do anything to the rules to make it easier or harder for that person to get over the line . Im not going to do anything to help or hurt anybody. Im going to run an open, honest, and fair convention, and the delegates are going to decide. And the delegates, by majority, are going to make all the decisions that they need to make at the convention. Its the same thing we do every four years. Going to be an interesting july. Great to see you, mr. Chairman. Thank you, megyn. For more on this business of this former trump adviser threatening convention delegates, who switch from one candidate to another, weve got Fox News ContributorKatie Pavelic and charlie hurd. Katie, your thoughts on roger stone sounding the threat to delegates that if they leave mr. Trump, theyre going to have him and i guess mr. Trumps constituents to answer to. Well, the first thing we need to address is that roger stone is accusing delegates who change of stealing an election, when the fact is, if donald trump wants to be the nominee, he needs to lock up 1237 before the primary process is over. In terms of the threats issued, this is par for the course for the Trump Campaign. You saw donald trump saying this might be riots if hes not the nominee. Many of his surrogates justifying violence because people are upset with the way the country is going. For roger stone to say hes going to give out the hotel rooms of delegates, its a mob. Its not the way that we work in American Society when it comes to the election. Instead, they should be focusing on trying to convince delegates not to leave donald trump through policy positions. But instead theyre sicking a mob on people, which has serious consequences. Charlie, was this appropriate . It certainly sounds over the line to me. But i also understand that the entire trump candidacy represents a lot of people who are deeply, deeply frustrated and they have been very frustrated for a long time with the political process. And all this talk about the rules at the convention and contested convention and bound delegates and unbound delegates. All of this obscures a far larger, more important problem that the Republican Party has. And that is that the Republican Party, and i think katie would agree with me, in a lot of ways has completely lost touch with its voters. While katie may not agree that donald trump is the right person to pick up the baton