Death and devastation in its wake but as weve said this shutdown cost lives too and heres the toll, more than one in ten americans thrown out of work, higher taxes, businesses collapsing, Mental Health declining and Life Expectancy falling. We are hearing today that there was pushback against the shutdown in early february. Of course there was an quite right to. The president instincts on this have been right all along. He is the one that has to consider all of the implications of any decision including the social, economic and yes Public Health devastation of the shutdown. As the shutdown told rose so has the demand for a better more sustainable antivirus plan. Weve set it different ways, but its all the same thing. Reopen america safely but soon. Ive read the ideas out there for how we move out of shutdown. Frankly none of them make sense except for one put together by a world Renowned Team of scientists and entrepreneurs that we will present to you tonight. First lets get the bad ideas out of the way. The central truth of our Current Situation is that its not just as i said a few weeks ago that the cure is worse than the disease, this cure is not even a cure. The minute you lift the lock down the virus start spreading again whether thats may, june, july, august or christmas. Thats the central floor in the first bad idea. Lift the lockdown now but reapply until we get a vaccine. Msnbc zeke emanuel talks about shutdown 2. 0, threepoint oh, fourpoint oh, how about just know, anyone pushing the recurring shutdown idea has no clue about how the economy actually works. Uncertainty is a killer for business, consumers, workers. We need to reopen and stay open. Another terrible idea is the one we told you about last week. Governments in europe are looking at Community Certificates for those who have had coronavirus. Doctor fauci said immunity certificates might actually have some merit under certain circumstances. Again, no. This has no merit under any circumstances. Of course we respect doctor faucis medical expert but this is a policy idea that would be a nightmare like the past law they had in south africa at the height of apartheid. Government antibodies surveillance leading to antibody would create zero positive elite incentive for people desperate for work to get infected. I hope no one in the white house is wasting one second on such a monstrous in human feet. It would be totally acceptable to the American People let alone trump supporters. Another example of technocratic isnt plan being pushed by former fda head scott. This is the one establishment thing seems to be coalescing around so that alone should make you suspicious of it. Its part of a comically complicated scheme with different phases and benchmarks for different parts of the country. This plan would use mass Virus Testing not Antibody Testing and doctor fauci puts it to identify isolate, contact trait everyone who gets the virus. But the latest data tells us that many millions of americans have or will get the virus. The idea that the government can identify each of them, isolate them somewhere for weeks, trace all their contacts, its insane. Now we know that apple and google are right behind it ready to build their surveillance empire on the back of this crisis. Lets call it gag for short. Its a technocrat dream and americas nightmare. To be effective, to bring certainty to business, to mastermind our chances of getting that big bounce back recovery working that so america so desperately needs, the right plan for america has to be safe, based on science and also simple. Thats the plan we will present to now. Here the people who put it together. Stanford University Professor of epidemiology, stanford associate professor and joining us live tonight, stanford live professor of medicine doctor j and doctor andrew bogan and intrapreneur and founder of jetblue. We will talk with them in the moment. Heres a clear element of their plan. Its intended to go on to affect after the Current White House guidelines expire. Step one get accurate data about how widespread and how deadly coronavirus really is. The statistics we are seeing right now are totally wrong. They reflect the number of tests, not the real number of infections. To get the real number, they have just carried out the worlds first largescale community antibody Sample Survey right here in the bay area where im speaking to you tonight. Santa clara county is the first in the nation to identify Community Transmission of coronavirus. The official statistic claim there are about 1600 cases of coronavirus here. Based on early indications and similar testing elsewhere, the actual number could be much, much higher. That means coronavirus is much more contagious, but much less deadly than we been told. So here is recommendation number one. Instead of pursuing government antibodies surveillance for every american, the white house should immediately commission continuous community antibodies nationwide so we get a true picture of the spread of this virus. Second step, get accurate data about who is most vulnerable. Just saying the elderly is too vague. How old, what condition, how much virus are they exposed to. Thats a huge part of the story. Its why young people, like some of our healthcare heroes are dying. Dont waste time identifying, isolating everyone whos got the virus. The latest data says there are millions of them and the vast majority will be fine. Instead put the effort into tracing the medical history of the people who so tragically died. Unbelievably, our hospitals are not collecting that data. So theres the second recommendation. The white house should mandate the collection and publication of whats known as core morbidity data, the Health Conditions of coronavirus fatality. This is especially important. Now we know more about how this virus is transmitted. Early guidance was wrong and dangerous focusing on surface transmission, face touching and so on. We now know it can be passed on through airborne droplets that can be brief then. Its likely that the shutdown actually hurt the most vulnerable, effective with asymptomatic people sent back to multigenerational homes with close quarters with their elderly family members. We need better data. Infection rates better data. Thats what the next few weeks should be about. Then, we go to step three in this science based plan. Reopen america all at once, not bit by bit, quarantine and protect the truly vulnerable. If we know that millions more americans than we thought have already had coronavirus, we dont need to shut down the economy just for lack of ventilators to take care of the truly vulnerable. With the information gathered in step one and two of this plan, we can do a much better job of protecting them, quarantine the most vulnerable, not everyone, not even everyone over 65. Just those with the specific health risk that have tragically killed thousands already. Keep them inside, give them and 95 masks and make sure no one comes within 6 feet of them. Make sure local help services, mobilize much tighter controls in nursing home and continue to build our reserve to make sure we can cope with anything that comes down the line. It might be old while before we can fill up the football stadiu stadium, but the science based plan weave out to you outlined is simple, practical and it is the best way to reopen america safely but soon. If you like the sound of this plan, i want to see implemented, tell the president , tell your governor, tell everyone. Please follow it now and share the plan when we post it. All right. Joining me now to talk about all of this is the people who help put this together. Professor at samford university, doctor j an entrepreneur and founder of jetblue, david. Thank you so much for being with us. I just want to start by asking you if theres anything there that i got wrong, anything you want to correct or add to from what i just said. Sure. You did a fantastic job explaining the outline. Theres only one thing i would add. We know this disease kills people and hospitals that are overwhelmed. A very important part has to be to try to understand where theyre likely to become overwhelmed and maybe even delay the listing were those places will be overwhelmed. I think the vast majority of america, if we have good data we can try to understand where thats likely to happen. You can probably start reopening much more safely if we follow plan like this. Could you just explain for our audience the significance of knowing all that so many more people have already been infected, will likely be infected then the case numbers we are currently seeing. Tell us why does that matter so much to understand this is much more widespread than we thought. Sure. Absolutely. The key thing to know about this disease is that it is very contagious. Now, that sounds very scary, but in some ways it should be somewhat comforting. Why is that because if its contagious and its widespread than the death rate from it is actually much lower than we believe. You see very, very scary numbers in those numbers. As said 300 people died in a given week. But if the denominator is much larger than that and it most certainly is much larger than that, many, many people got the disease that we didnt pick up with the testing regimen, then its much lower than that. Maybe one in a thousand. It could be much lower. So the key thing to understand is how widespread is this and then we can start to understand really how far along in the evidence we are and what the risk is. Final question to you, i just want to be really clear, theres so much talk of testing, different kinds of testing. In your words can you describe the kind of testing you now want to see, the type of Antibody Testing, this is not testing everyone, its actually going community by community as youve done here in Santa Clara County and testing a representative sample with these antibody test. Are these antibody tests cheaper, simpler, quicker, how quickly do you think we can get to where we have a really good sense of how prevalent this disease is around the country. I think its very, very in u inexpensive. The tests themselves are 7 ten dollars. We managed to put together a study that, in a matter of weeks we put together a study to collect a sample of 3000 people who volunteered their fingerprint, and we are about to release the results where we will be able to know how many people have the condition. The cost of this is much, much cheaper than vast testing on a population scale. If you choose widely so they represent their community and then learn from matt, what fraction can you expose. [inaudible] i think weve demonstrated we can do this in every community in the country. Steve and real quickly it is an fda approved test, right. Theres a distinction to be made between a test thats useful for clinical work. I take a test for you and i can tell you with one 100 certainty that this is a test with very High Accuracy that its accurate. That is not the kind of test we currently have. The tests are very good at telling you if you are negative, but there is some error if youre positive. So it wont pick up all the positives, but the good news is, in these community Sample Surveys you can adjust for that. Its very, very simple to adjust for that. I need to bring david in but some of that we still need to get an undercount if anything. David, i just want to get, you and i have been speaking the last week or so, youre so fired up about this. Youve helped mobilize this effort, bring the scientists and doctors together and help support their work. Just tell us first of all, why you are pushing this forward. Thanks for doing this program. Its really, really important. I have a lot of people who work for my company, i have people in brazil and portugal and the united states, maybe 30,000 families that are depending on me, so when i started to do this search, i was really worried about them and their families and so my search kind of led me to it, actually had a contact, i read an article and i just started studying and just becoming really, really knowledgeable, and it never really made sense to me that this thing couldve ripped all the way around the world in a matter of weeks and we would have the number of people infected. It just never made sense so it was like a light bulb went off. It was amazing. And theres a much more personal connection i think our audience would appreciate hearing as well. Obviously i have an 85 and 86yearold parent that three weeks ago i put in quarantine. We cant go near them and were trying to make sure our droplets dont go to them and they cant see the grandkids, and i promise my dad, i said that if you promise youll go on quarantine and you keep all the rules then this will only last a couple months and you can come out and i think youll get some of your life savings back. So he said okay and my mom and dad have been there in quarantine, but i dont think i can keep them in quarantine until the vaccine comes out. We need to figure out a way to protect them but also get people back to work in a more safe manner. Theres a plan and i think less people can die if we do this right. Steve thank you so much for that. We will have much more. Youll get our perspective next from another member of the team. Dont go away. If you have moderate to severe psoriasis, Little Things can become your big moment. Thats why theres otezla. Otezla is not a cream. Its a pill that treats plaque psoriasis differently. With otezla, 75 clearer skin is achievable. Dont use if youre allergic to otezla. It may cause severe diarrhea, nausea, or vomiting. Otezla is associated. With an increased risk of depression. Tell your doctor if you have a history of depression. Or suicidal thoughts or if these feelings develop. Some people taking otezla reported weight loss. Your doctor should monitor your weight and may stop treatment. Upper respiratory tract infection and headache may occur. Tell your doctor about your medicines, and if youre pregnant or planning to be. Otezla. Show more of you. Welcome back. David is still with us and were joining by doctor andrew bogan. Im you handed over to you, where would you like to pick that up and what would you like to add to whats are ready been discussed . I think youve captured very well the importance of doing prevalence testing and really understanding where we are. I think thats not known, i think studies like ours which can be replicated very quickly around the world should be done and will help inform what the real numbers look like. So i just wanted to ask you to comment on, this is a critical time, decisions are being made about what comes after the april 30 national guidelines, theres questions about how do we reopen our economies. I just like your take on the two plans, lets just start with this plan which there seems to be a lot of people saying lets test everyone, virus test everyone, and then we can isolate the people who have the virus and trade their contacts and so on and manage this going forward. Doctor factory seems to be very keen on that approach. What do you make of it . So testing is important, but we have to realize that there may be a lot of people who have already had this disease and you will not be able to test for active virus if traditional testings been done. Your only be able to test if theyve had the virus like the one we did or the laboratory version used base danford right now. But i dont think its going to be practical if the numbers of infection are as large as they might be as you suggested earlier to be doing this testin testing. I think theres a very real chance that this disease has progressed much further than we realize based on the bias of how we been doing testing so far, and if were able to discover that was the case, im very hesitant to say that it would be feasible to Contract Trace every single infectious contact. Thats an incredibly important point. You made it really clearly. We have to underline that because this seems to be the direction our policymakers are going in. The other one david, its this idea of anti body immunities certificates to say well if you have it you can go back to work, but if the other person in your household hasnt had the virus they still have to stand the shutdown. What you make of that . Like you mentioned, you couldnt of said it better steve in your opening monologue, you cant let people go back to work if they dont have it because it creates this perverse incentive that youre gonna go out and trying get sick especially if youre not going to get that sick, but it could create a much bigger crisis. Just to add something that andrew just said about the mass testing, if 50 of the people who have it didnt even know they have it, and 85 of people had a mild case and never got tested, how can you trace 50 of the people who had it and didnt know they had it. Thats just crazy. You can see why these numbers that are coming out, theres a study out of denmark that shows 30 80 times as many people had the antibody, theres a study out of germany that says 15 of this town already has it which is something thats like a hundred times what the german test rate is today so like andrew said, this is probably gone way beyond that we should really focus our efforts now on identifying whos really at risk and taking care of those people. Thats what we should really be doing. Thats right. Thats what were to focus on. Working to keep talking about that, david will stay with us and theyll join us straight after the break. Dont go y away. Its the next one. You always drive this slow . How did you make someone i love . That must be why youre always so late. I do not speed. And thats saving me cash with drivewise. My son, he did say that you were the safe option. And thats the nicest thing you ever said to me. So get allstate. Stop bossing. 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