Oh i cant tell you that. Also ahead, watters sampling debate opinion with the folks. Whew, okay. Caution, you are about to enter the no spin zone. The factor begins right now. Hi, im bill oreilly. Thanks for watching us tonight. No spin analysis of last nights president ial debate. That is the subject of this evenings talking points memo. Please keep in mind many folks only hear what they want to hear. And thats why most of the post debate comments last night were a collosal waste of time. Partisan also never see things for what theyre. It will always be what satisfies their agenda. So, many opinions on the debate are subject to rooting interests and to expunge that you, have to actually step back and think, putting aside the small machine attached to your hand. Talking points has done that. And here is my assessment. Neither candidate broke out last night. The American People did not learn very much. Because both candidates stuck to what they have said in the past. There were few challenging questions put forth. Only general queries. Except for the birther and tax return stuff designed to hammer mr. Trump. Lets begin with demeanor. Very important to donald trump. At the start, he was credible, speaking about the need to stimulate the private sector so jobs are created. Under my plan, i will be reducing taxes tremendously from 35 to 15 for companies. Small and big businesses. Thats going to be a job creator like we havent seen since ronald reagan. Its going to be a beautiful thing to watch. Strong point by trump. As growth in america right now is awful. And this country needs an economic jolt. As the debate wore on mr. Trump began to get a bit testy. No, no. You are telling the enemy everything you aring are to do. No you are not. No wonder you have been fighting isis your entire adult life. Now, that emotional response led to a mistake. Isis has only been around for a few years. Not a big mistake but it was noted. For her part secretary clinton stuck to the progressive script. I have heard from so many of you about the difficult choices you face and the stresses that you are under. So lets have paid family leave, earned sick days. Lets be sure we have affordable child care and debtfree college. How are we going to do it . We are going to do it by having the wealthy pay their fair share and close the corporate loopholes. That fair share line offends Many Americans who are not wealthy. Yes, there are some fat cats who dodge taxes. But this cat, the guy who is talking to you right now, pays an enormous amount of money in taxes. And so do millions of other successful americans. That fair share myth is beyond annoying. Now, its quite clear that mrs. Clinton will govern by expanding the federal government. Perhaps even more than president obama has. As for demeanor, the secretary seemed somewhat smug, while not speaking. She seems very selfsatisfied. A condition that carried over today in North Carolina. Did anybody see that debate last night . [cheers] oh, yes. One down, two to go. To be fair, politicians must show confidence, but it is wise to avoid the gloating factor. Most one of the most, i should say, interesting parts of the debate was the racial aspect framed around stop and frisk. We have to bring back law and order. Now, whether or not in a place like chicago, do you stop and frisk, which worked very well, mayor giuliani is here it worked very well in new york. It brought the crime rate way down. We do always have to make sure we keep people safe. There are the right ways of doing it and then there are ways that are ineffective. Stop and frisk was found to be unconstitutional. And, in part, because it was ineffective. Thats not true. Aggressive Police Monitoring in high crime neighborhoods does, does cut violent crime. Especially where guns are used. But stop and frisk also does alienate some law abiding folks who are subject to intrusion. However, there is no question that permissive local governments run by democrats have failed dismally in places like chicago and baltimore. Mr. Trump missed a big opportunity to ask mrs. Clinton to repudiate those administrations. Trump also missed chances to pin the secretary down on sanctuary cities, violent protests, disrespect for the anthem, and vouchers to improve Poor Public School performance by instilling competition. Why trump did not bring it on those emotional issues, is a mystery. So technically, technically, Hillary Clinton won the debate on points because she was able to keep trump on the defensive. She used three effective grenades. Tax returns, the birther issue, and support for the iraq war. Moderator lester holt helped mrs. Clinton on the birther deal. Trump made the mistake of overexplaining. He should have just shrugged off questions designed to trap him. Refocusing on secretary clintons many ethical problems. But trump felt the need to defend himself and that hurt him. For example, mentioning someone like Rosie Odonnell in a president ial debate . Never a good thing. If donald trump really wants to be president , he must put frivaolties aside. Concentrate on three in stone realities. First federal government is hurting the poor and working class by punching private business with high regulation and high taxes. Second Barack Obamas isis policy allows those savages to continue their terrorism at will. And, third, that the democratic partys embrace of grievance, embrace of grievants is pitting americans against one another. Demonizing the police and creating an environment where the u. S. A. Is portrayed as oppressive not the land of opportunity it really is. If trump would hammer home those three themes he might distinguish himself in a way that might attract voters currently skeptical of him. For her part, Hillary Clinton needs to stop doing. This. You know, he tried to switch from looks to stamina, but this is a man who has called women pigs, slobs, and dogs. And someone who has said pregnancy is an inconvenience to employers. Those kinds of attacks, personal attacks diminish the secretary. Trump would have been within fair decorum to respond with facts about the treatment of women when the clintons were under siege in the white house. The fact that mr. Trump did not do that last night is too his credit. Finally, bret baier had a wise comment today. He said that if polls continue to build for trump after that debate, the Clinton Campaign will be in serious trouble. Already many online surveys are boosting trumps debate performance, including those from cbs, and Time Magazine. But the truth is, both candidates can do much better. And to win the white house, they will have to. Thats the memo. Its posted on bill oreilly. Com. Next on the rundown, Charles Krauthammer will react. Later, watters getting debate analysis from the folks. Upcoming. Im jamie foxx for verizon. In the nations largest independent study by rootmetrics, again, verizon is the number one network. Hi, im jamie foxx for sprint. And im jamie foxx for tmobile. both and were just as good. Really . Only verizon was ranked number one nationally in data, reliability, text and call and speed. Yeah. And youre gonna fist pump to that . Get out of my sight. announcer vo unlimited isnt a good deal if its on a cutrate network. Switch now and get our best deal. 20 gigs and four lines for only 160. All on americas best network. Like their photo claims tool. It helps settle your claim quickly, which saves time, which saves money. And when they save, you save. Thats auto and Home Insurance for the modern world. Esurance, an allstate company. Click or call. Esurance does insurance a smarter way, which saves money. Like bundling home and auto coverage, which reduces red tape, which saves money. And when they save, you save. Thats home and Auto Insurance for the modern world. Esurance, an allstate company. Click or call. Its not a weekend hobby. Ance . You have to live and breathe it for 50 years. Its the sound. And the fury. Its letting it all hang out there, and its hanging on for dear life. That is what amg driving performance means. And this is where it lives. The 503horsepower mercedesamg c63 s coupe. And when i confront him with the reasons why he wont release his tax returns and i got to that point where i said maybe he has paid zero, he said that makes him smart. [crowd boos] now, if not paying taxes makes him smart, what does that make all the rest of us . That was Hillary Clinton speaking today in North Carolina and the tax return deal did come up last night in the debate big time. Joining us from washington, Charles Krauthammer. Now, before we get to the specifics of the debate with you. Were you surprised that the Time Magazine snap poll and wcbs snap poll which is a cbs flag ship here in new york had trump winning fairly substantially . Of course not. Because they are totally meaningless. These are online polls. These are not random samples. The only thing that means anything and even the randomly sampled polls have their problems. But the idea that you win because your supporters come out and click on the computer more than others tells you nothing. I guarantee you. Let me challenge for a minute. I guarantee you that if you had a poll on who had the better hair, trump would get the same 80 . The reason i brought those two and we dont do online polling at all. Time magazine is a very liberal concern, all right . And wcbs is in manhattan. Manhattan is way antitrump all over the place. So, that just caught my tension that two precincts where you would not expect then we would expect from breitbart and those people but not those two. I dont think that makes any difference whatsoever. This is a measure of your enthusiasm and commitment to make a statement on behalf of trump. And we know just by looking at the size of the crowds that trump has the enthusiasm and the semi empty halls for hillary that she doesnt. You dont need a poll to tell you that if you are asking who won the debate, then you have got to have a random sample. There is a reason. And we have those beginning on wednesday. The Trump Administration demands a random sample and test ago drug because otherwise, you end up with junk. And since Health Depends on getting the drugs right, we demand random samples. Not much depends on the results of a poll. But you have got to have a scientific standard or you have nothing. Okay. I got it. Going forward, i think the thing that will hurt donald trump the most and well get to Hillary Clinton in a moment, is the tax return deal. Yes. It is now becoming apparent that he could release it if he wants. He doesnt want to. And there is a strong likelihood that his federal tax payments are low. So, that people who do pay their quote, unquote, fair share, whatever they are required to pay, they dont have massive deductions, might hold that against the very wealthy trump. I thought that was a real hostage to fortune and possibly a gaffe that will develop over time. Yeah. Look, on the debate itself, the night itself. I thought that at the end the needle did move. Meaning the needle of support for one candidate or the other. I think each established a position. He basically said she represents 30 years status quo if you like the world the way it is, you vote for her. Thats his position. Hers was, i prepared for the debate. I prepared for the presidency. Im a pro, im there. He is an amateur. Each made that case. And because he is the challenger, and he stepped on the stage and he came out alive after 90 minutes, perhaps marginally he wins in a draw. But, on the issue so if the debate had just happened in a vacuum and ended, that would be it. It didnt. He left two time bombs. One is the admission it was an effective admission. He may deny it later. But he essentially sort of prided himself in having not paid taxes. And the guy is a billionaire. And i think that could be a real issue. He had been dodging and weaving and not releasing his taxes in order not to show that he might not have paid his taxes and yet he couldnt resist. And the second was the alicia machado. The fact that he went after her gratuitously this morning. He didnt have to. He kept that issue alive. The beauty contestant. The beauty contestant. I dont think that will but i think the other one will. Im up against a time clock were doing a live program as you know. Okay. The big deficit Going Forward for Hillary Clinton said there wasnt one thing that she said that was innovative. That was different from the Obama Administration or that was anything other than what we have heard a million times. I agree. Thats why i thought it was a draw in that sense. He didnt advance his case. Nothing. He didnt advance his case. Look, debates have not done on tkos points who won the rounds. The debates are decided on perception. Overall impression. Right, perception. There was no knockout zinger. There was no i knew john kennedy. In the absence of that i think its a question of demeanor. I thought her demeanor was good. She was much more composed than he was. But none the less, i dont think the difference was enough to overcome the fact that he is the challenger and he was on the stage with her. Fox news poll comes out friday. Other polls will begin on wednesday. And those, bill, are real polls. Directly ahead, frank luntz, with the best and worst moments from both clinton and trump last night. Then later watters with the folks on the debate upcoming. Campaign 2016 segment tonight, we ask Fox News Contributor frank luntz to do last night. Undecided voters in philadelphia. He joins us now from philadelphia. We have got four clips. The first one in Hillary Clintons worst moment. Roll the tape. Well, i hope the Fact Checkers are turning up the volume and really working hard. Donald supported the invasion of iraq. Wrong. That is absolutely. Wrong. Proved over and over again. Wrong. He actually advocated for the actions we took in libya and urged that qaddafi be taken out. So why was that the worst moment . More on than not, her criticisms were well received because donald trump handled them so badly. In that case when she said hey, lets get the Fact Checkers involved. They thought that was ad hominem attack challenging him without his being able to respond. You can hear him saying wrong several times in the background. Voters thought that was unnecessary political approach and they thought that she deserved better. All right. Is it possible that no one cares about whether donald trump thought the iraq war, the runup i dont care. I mean, i dont know why anybody would care at this juncture in history. So what . Youre correct. And thats because we want to know what theyre going to do in the future. Not what they have done in the past and not what they thought in the past. I can support. This i know trump. Trump didnt like that war. He didnt like it. Can i tell you thats firsthand experience. All right. Here is trumps worst moment. Go. You just opened the next segment. Look, can i just finish. I think i should. You go to our website and you take a look at her website. Were talking about racial healing in this segment. What do you say to america well it was very, i say nothing because i was able to get him to produce it he should have produced it a long time before. You had supported the war in iraq before the invasion. What makes your i did not support the war in iraq. 2002. That is a Mainstream Media nonsense put out by her. All right. Now, why did Trump Supporters not like that answer . Because is he defending himself. No, its that he is talking over lester holt. Oh. They didnt want him to talk over lester holt . You dont. This is the Cardinal Rule of debates. There are two rules. Number one, do not trip when you arrive and number two, do not talk over the moderator. Wow. And trump did it three times and every time he did it you could hear exasperation among the participants because they just found trump rude. I got it . Someone needs to explain him in debate prep dont do this. Okay. I think he will probably hear about this tonight. Now, here is Hillary Clintons best moment. Roll. Donald has consistently insulted muslims abroad, muslims at home, when we need to be cooperating with muslim nations and with the american muslim community. Theyre on the front lines. They can provide information to us that we might not get anywhere else. They need to have closeworking cooperation with Law Enforcement in these communities, not be alienated and pushed away as some of donalds rhetoric, unfortunately has led to. All right. So thats common sense by the way, they are all very excited. Some lean to hillary and some lean to trump and thats why you have the different color lines. Thats basically a common sense play. But its more than that she is talking about working together at a time when trump is, quite frankly, being very explicit about what his position is on muslim americans. And i wants to point out, bill. We have added that yellow line, that truly hard core undecided so that viewers can see what the slightly trump, slightly clinton and undecided field. That was the one moment when all three lines were over a 70. Thats why that was the highest moment of the debate for her. All right. And for donald trump, here is the highest moment. Go. We buy products for our military and they come at a cost that are so far above what they were supposed to be because we dont have people that know what theyre doing. When we look at the budget, the budget is bad to a large extent because we have people that have no idea as to what to do and how to buy. Trump international is way under budget and way ahead of schedule. And we should be able to do that for our country. Well, we are well beyond. He is talking about his hotel in washington, d. C. So, fiscal responsibility, americans want that. Is that what that was all about . Its even deeper. The number one issue isnt tax cuts, bill. Its ending wasteful washington spending. What trump is saying that his businesses could do it, apply those principles to washington, d. C. , and americans wo