To bike t toberfest. I dont do politics. Melania trump speaks about the accusations. Caution, you are about to enter the no spin zone. The factor begins right now. Hi, im bill oreilly. Thanks for watching us tonight. Where the Campaign Stands right now. That is the subject of this evenings talking points memo. Abc news poll, good news for donald trump. Has him just four points behind Hillary Clinton. Nbc news poll not so good news. Is he down by 11 in that one. And cbs news poll trump down by 9. Talking points believes the fox news poll, which has trump down by 7 is most likely the most accurate. But, with three weeks remaining, the question is can that gap be closed . There are a few things that donald trump must do. First, put aside the feuding. Gets him nowhere with voters to take on people like paul ryan. Second, while he must defend himself against charges he believes are sciolous. He should charges and hone in on three major themes wikileaks stuff mr. Trump has plenty of mo for wednesday nights debate. As for Hillary Clinton she is off the campaign trail this week resting up for the campaign in vegas. Thats smart. She is ahead. She cant sit on lead. If the secretary dominate on wednesday night she is in. But if trump hammers her, misclinton will have to compete. Her best strategy in vegas is to mostly ignore trump and talk directly to the voters, trying to convince them she is not corrupt. Now, the big picture. It all pretty much comes down to four states. Florida, ohio, north carolina, pennsylvania. Trump needs to take three out of those four and win the west, that is nevada, colorado, and the rest of the red states out there. No question that Hillary Clinton is better positioned right now. But, again, things change fast in this terrible campaign. I say terrible because it j s. Just one personal attack after another on both sides that has weakened both trump and Hillary Clinton. I think the question becomes for her and for voters, is she going to be able to govern . You talk to lots of people who are her supporters, and they say, you know, she may be elected but will be a weak president. And part of this is she has got to kind of face this isnt just about trump. Its about her. Now, the polls show many americans, perhaps most, are voting against, rather than for, one of the candidates. First time in my life, that has happened. Thats the memo. Now top story reaction joining us from rehabilitation Charles Krauthammer. Recent polls say only 10 of americans are still persuadable. With new smears every day on both sides, im not sure that statistic is valid. What say you . Well, its hard to know exactly what it means to be persuadable. I think whats remarkable about the two candidates is how well known they are. You go back over the last few election cycles. Did anybody was there a lot of people who knew about romney before he ran . Even john mccain . John kerry . You go back and it is very unusual to have two candidates who are universally known, name recognition up there at 90 have. Been around for a good 30 years. So, opinions were formed going in to the campaign, we have now been at it for a month and a half, they are out there, i dont think there is very much new. What is new, and i think the one thing that trump can do is the wikileaks stuff. Thats new information coming out almost every other day. And it isnt enough to say that she is a crook or a liar or whatever, because look at whats in wikileaks. You got to pick three items. And there are a lot. Just pick any at random. But, wait a minute,. And make that the point of your attack on Hillary Clinton. So, if im trump, then im going to go the open borders comment. Im probably go going to go Catholic Church and what that really is the message. But most of the wikileaks stuff isnt about Hillary Clinton. Its about podesta. The campaign manager. Saying questionable things to the Campaign Staff or clinton people saying questionable things to the state department and state department saying questionable things. So, there is no video or audio of Hillary Clinton saying anything and even the open border quote, its hard to get that in context because we dont know the whole speech. I dont know if thats going to really resonate as much as the trump stuff has. No. Its not going to. Of course. A tape will beat text every time. Sex will beat corruption any time. Nonetheless, since we are not at the peak of that frenzy, we are going into the last debate it doesnt matter if the overwhelming majority of the stuff in the wikileaks is about staff. Have you got 90 minutes to talk about 10,000 emails. You only need one or two or three items having to do with hillary. One of the most damaging is that she says youve got to have a public position and private position. That goes to the essence of her weakness that people think probably correct i had most of the time that she doesnt believe in anything and that she is driven by ambition. In the wikileaks release today or over the weekend, you see her scolding her speech writers because they werent able to crystallize what her campaign is about. And i think she suggested the four fights, it sounded like a slogan for the leadership of the Chinese Communist party. They dont know what its about because it really isnt about anything. Its united were stronger or stronger together or. Yeah, whats to that mean . Hope and change. Lets go back to hope and change. Thats a god one. Now, wallace, chris wallace, he is your pal. You hack around together. Wouldnt it be his job, rather than trumps job, to bring the wikileaks stuff up and specifically say, you know, what did you mean about the open border . What did you mean about private and public . What did you mean . And then holder to account on that . Do you expect wallace to do that . I think he will. I think he should. And i think thats what he ought t to do with either candidate. To choose something they have said and make them defend it but the point of the debate. Wait, wait, wait. Think and so i do. I think he will bring up the wikileaks tape with trump if he goes back to the access hollywood stuff, i dont think is he going to do that. I dont think wallace is going to go back to the access hollywood stuff, do you . If he does, you pivot right off it. Thats the point. The problem with trump for the last three weeks is that he has had all kinds of attacks and he simply cant get off the personal offense that he feels he has to respond to it doesnt matter if his own dignity he wont get off of it. Everyone knows, his advisors know he needs to be pivoting off and go after her weaknesses which are many. He seems incapable of doing that. Thats why he is behind in all the polls that you have cited. Okay. Now, in your opinion, humble opinion,. Not really. Can trump win . I mean, say he has a good District Attorney bait on wednesday, can he close it. I dont think that he can do it himself. He needs an act of god or an act of putin. Act of god would be some kind of medical problem with his opponent. Act of putin would be something in wikileaks that links her directly to some kind of quid pro quo. Some evidence that in return for money from who knows where something tangible was given. That happens to be our standard. I think its much too low a standard. It should be access. But we seem to accept the granting of access in return for money thats how our system works. Thats not a fatal offense. If there is something of a quid pro quo right in there, involving her directly, we heard today about the fbi and state department wanting to trade favors. Thats underlings right down there in the bureaucracy. Its got to be her. If it is there that could swing it to the point where trump with a good close could pull it out. All right. You know the press isnt going to report it very strongly. Thats why god invented fox. But we have been fair in this campaign. Were not looking to take anything out of context. At least. But if something comes up. It will be reported here. Thats for sure. Charles. Thanks very much. Next on the run down, we have some polling from important states, individual states. Carkarl rove will help us with that the bikers talking politics. Also, Melania Trump defending her husband up ahead. When you have a cold, you just want powerful relief. Only new alkaseltzer plus free of artificial dyes and preservatives liquid gels delivers the powerful cold symptom relief you need without the unnecessary additives you dont. Store manager clean up, aisle 4. Alkaseltzer plus liquid gels. Thats why this control enthusiast rents from national. Where i can skip the counter. And choose any car in the aisle. On average, four out of every five rentals at national is a free upgrade. Getting a fullsize and paying for a midsize . Whoa, oh, whoa, whoa, lovin every minute of it. As the boys from loverboy so eloquently noted. Im lovin every minute of it. Go national. Go like a pro. Like their photo claims tool. It helps settle your claim quickly, which saves time, which saves money. And when they save, you save. Thats auto and Home Insurance for the modern world. Esurance, an allstate company. Click or call. Esurance does insurance a smarter way, which saves money. Like bundling home and auto coverage, which reduces red tape, which saves money. And when they save, you save. Thats home and Auto Insurance for the modern world. Esurance, an allstate company. Click or call. Campaign 2016 segment tonight. As we said in the talking points memo, there are very few key states that will decide the president ial race. Heres new polling. North carolina, according to cnn poll, its pretty much a tie. Hillary clinton 48 . Donald trump 47 . Same thing in nevada. Clinton 46 , trump 44 . Within the margin of error. In ohio trump leads 48 to 44 . Joining us from austin texas, karl rove. I just asked Charles Krauthammer if he sees trump winning, you know, long shot. He would say. The betting people say 80 chance Hillary Clinton is going to win now. What do you think of those odds. I think he has a very steep uphill climb. You talked at the beginning how he could win this by taking ohio, and florida and pennsylvania and north carolina. He needs three out of the four. I dont think he is going to win pennsylvania. Okay. So he is not going to win pennsylvania. Assume he wins everything else, he is at 253. He has 17 electoral votes to pick it up. You say he has to pick those up from the west. Nevada with 6. Colorado with 9 and new mexico can a and i dont know anybody who thinks he has a chance in new mexico. He doesnt. Last time he led in the poll in colorado was on the 23rd of september. Just before the first debate. 13 polls out there. Three have been he led. All of them prior to september 23rd. One was a tie and nine of them hillary has led and real clear politics average she is leading by 8. Thats awful steep. Lets say he gets colorado and nevada, that still gets him only to 268. Even if he wins maine, too. I is at 269 and one short of the electoral college. Has to get some place like New Hampshire. Are you giving him iowa in that calculation, by the way . No i would not give him colorado, so give him iowa and he is at 259. Okay. And then if he picks off New Hampshire, that wouldnt be enough, he would still be short. Yeah. If he gets nevada, it gets him to 265. If he gets to New Hampshire that gets him to 269. If he wins the Second District of maine it gets him to 270. Again, New Hampshire behind in New Hampshire. Assuming he loses colorado, because as you say its trending against him. When you said september 23rd. I want to remind irving thats the access hollywood day. No. October 7th is access hollywood. September 23rd is the last day of the polls before the first debate. Okay. Thank you for correcting me. Things started to go south after access hollywood, even though the first debate Hillary Clinton won the debate. It wasnt, you know, a kill shot. But then with her winning the debate and then the access hollywood, thats when you started to see these individual states go. Now, trump is in wisconsin tonight. Were going to we might give the folk as look. I dont know whether he is wrapping up or not. Might give you 90 second look at it he thinks he has a chance in wisconsin. Is that realistic . There have been a couple of polls that show that ron johnson the republican senator is within striking distance of democrat fine gold, Russ Feingold whom he beat six years ago. Maybe trump is taking some potential from that. Again, he is going weird places that im not certain he has got a shot in and this is one of this elm. Would you not send him to wisconsin . No look, i think he has got to pick up he has go to play the inside straight. He has got to try to get a big state. Maybe that big state is wisconsin. They have got better data than i have probably got access to. The public polling data doesnt point to wisconsin. He was closer, he has been closer at times in pennsylvania. If you have been close once maybe you can get close again. Still campaigning there. He pulled out of virginia and i dont think anybody expected him to win virginia because he got hammered there in the republican primary. But, at this point now, is there anything that trump can do in the debate on wednesday and then for the next two and a half weeks to persuade people, you know, in pennsylvania . Is there anything he can do . He has got big splash somehow. Look. He has to run a real campaign. I thought there was a lot of wisdom in the campaign between you and charles. Both of you in your own way saying he has wasted time. Think about it, the we spent the week after the first debate speaking about miss universe. Spent the week after the second debate both defending himself against all of these charges that have have rose as a result of the october 7th tape. Picking a fight with the Republican Party and ending the week talking about a sinister plot to deny him his election. He has got to get focused on the issues. Pick out three, maybe four, and stay on them and got to be depicting himself as agent of change and drawing on the things that happened in the real world to talk about each and every day. Let me give you an example. Last wednesday, the governor of minnesota, a democrat, a very liberal democrat came out and said obamacare is unsustainable and unaffordable. If i were the trump campaign, i would have jumped on that. And gone all out the next day saying even a democrat who believed in this program in the beginning realizes got to do that each and every day. He cant win with the tabloid stuff. Right. He has got to get away from that and say here is what i am going to do for you. Got to stop looking defensive. Hillary clinton has got to ignore trump like look, im not a crook or whatever. She has got to depict herself of a candidate of some change. Cant look at exclusive she has really hitched her tail to the president. Mr. Rove, thank you. Directly ahead. One National Poll has been trump friendly. We will take a look at that situation. Also, comparing past president s like bush the elder to trump and clinton. Is that a fair thing to do . Factor is coming right back. When youre close to the people you love, does psoriasis ever get in the way of a touching moment . If you have moderate to severe psoriasis, you can embrace the chance of completely clear skin with taltz. Taltz is proven to give you a chance at completely clear skin. With taltz, up to 90 of patients had a significant improvement of their psoriasis plaques. In fact, 4 out of 10 even achieved completely clear skin. Do not use if you are allergic to taltz. Before starting you should be checked for tuberculosis. Taltz may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. Tell your doctor if you are being treated for an infection or have symptoms. Or if you have received a vaccine or plan to. Inflammatory bowel disease can happen with taltz. Including worsening of symptoms. Serious allergic reactions can occur. Nows your chance at completely clear skin. Just ask your doctor about taltz. Nows your chance at completely clear skin. Very gently release the clutch. Okay that was too fast. So is managing your credit. Get Experian Creditworks basic for free today and you can start getting better. Youll get access to your experian Credit Report and Customer Service experts to help answer your questions. So you can learn to be better. Good job. Start building your credit skills today for free. Visit experian. Com free right now. Experian®. Be better at credit. Impact segment tonight, as we reported most of the polls have Hillary Clinton beating trump in some cases handily but not the rasmussen. There, trump has been mostly ahead over the months. Although mrs. Clinton has now drawn into a tie with the margin of error. We also are following trump speaking in green bay, wisconsin. We will put up a split screen so you can see. He has got a nice pretty little girl there is he talking to. First, here is amy holmes in the studio. Your poll has been more friendly to trump than the others. Why . It has been sometimes. Sometimes not. In fact, we have had hillary ahead by a couple of points since august pretty consistently. You can see every poll has different methodology. We look at three days in succession. 500 people, new each night. And we have it broken down 50 male, 50 female. Nationwide. National poll. Also a four way race. The four way race is the only way you have to do it. Right. Today had you clinton up by 2. Statistical tie. If you look at the margin offerer. Look at cbs and nbc. Nbc has got clinton up by 11. Cbs 9. Thats a big difference. It is a difference and they also have a margin of error. If you look at the trend lines, the polls tend to go in the same direction. So, for example, we had hillary up, you know, by couple of points. Then we had the big access holiday story. That was like dropping a grenade into the trump campaign. And then we had her 7 points ahead of in trump, which is well beyond the margin of error. Then you have the debate. And the folks, you know, settling in their impression of that. Then,