Poll and Electoral College map showing the state of the president ial race 24 hours before the big debate. Caution, you are about to enter the no spin zone. The factor begins right now. Hi, im bill oreilly. Thanks for watching us tonight. What is wrong with america . That is the subject of this evenings talking points memo. This evening, we will set up the final president ial debate in las vegas tomorrow night. Just a few moments we will show you why donald trump has to win decisively in vegas or he will lose the general election. Mr. Trump should absolutely capitalize on what is wrong in america because there is no doubt were in trouble. First, the economy. Growth is less than 2 . That means wellpaying jobs are scarce, and workers have to take whats available. The Unemployment Rate doesnt mean very much when new jobs come with low salaries. With all the resources we have in the u. S. A. , growth should be far more than 2 . On the immigration front after all these years people can still walk across the southern border, establish residency illegally in this country, and then have the government actually pay them entitlements. Does that sound like a fair system to you . When kates law was destroyed by the awful senator harry reid Critical Mass was reached. All that law would have done was require a mandatory federal prison sentence for a violent, illegal alien felon who defied deportation who came back after being kicked out. Reid and other democrats in the senate killed it. The new mandatory minimum sentences the bill would rate could have a crippling financial effect. And thats an understatement with no evidence that they would actually deter future violations of law. This legislation would require about 20,000 new prison beds. 20,001 new prisons. Cost over 3 billion. This is yet another attack on the immigrant community. So let me get this straight, reid. To punish violent illegal alien felons who cross back into this country after being deported is an attack on the immigrant community . And the prison stuff is just false. The numbers of criminal aliens would fall drastically once they knew they would be partially punished just for standing on american soil. They wouldnt have to commit another crime. Just for standing here they get 10 years under kates law. Now, the kind of insanity that reid puts forth is why so many americans, including this one, are angry. About crime in the poor neighborhoods, last night in chicago, 12 people shot including a 13yearold boy. 12. That begins that brings the total number of americans shot in the windy city this year alone to 3476. Chicago is more dangerous than kabul, afghanistan. And its clear that democratic mayor rahm emanuel and republican governor bruce runner will not stop the violence in poor black chicago neighborhoods. Will not stop it. Now, that is true racism. For you p. C. People out there. Lets go overseas. Major battle underway right now to remove isis from iraqs second largest city mosul. The hard truth is isis should have never been allowed to take mosul or any other iraqi territory in the first place. The only reason that happened was a huge Foreign Policy blunder by president obama. As you may know, he withdrew allamerican troops from iraq in 2011 without American Forces there, isis grew in power. And who was the architect of that policy . Secretary of state clinton. Finally, what about our National Spirit . One word, terrible. With all the muck, wikileaks, media pies, and chaos surrounding the president ial campaign, americans are disgusted. Were a divided nation. Most folks are voting against the candidate rather than four one. And a politically correct culture that is being imposed on us by the media, imposed is rapidly destroying traditional values. All religious americans know that. So it seems to me that the challenger in the president ial race, trump, should have an advantage because secretary clinton is embracing the policies of mr. Obama. But it has not turned out that way. And trump is counsel to his last chance tomorrow night. And thats the memo. Now, for the top story, brand new fox news poll among likely voters Hillary Clinton now leads donald trump 45 to 39 . Governor gary johnson clocks in with 5 . Jill stein, the green candidate 3 . Last week the fox poll had it this way, 35 , clinton over trump. Things remain stagnant but trump hangs on. Joining us now from austin, texas, darren shaw who polls for fox news. Anything change in the last week, dr. Shah, the numbers stay pretty much the same. Anything behind the scenes change . Well, its pretty much basis, bill. Not much going on now. Some sense thats probably good news for donald trump. The medias coverage has continually been negative. More difficult stories to deal with over the past week. But it seems to be that she has stopped out at about the mid 40s. Her numbers have been fairly stagnant. His numbers have dropped. There is no evidence he is really recovering much of that ground that he lost. In fact, if you look at the internals, one in five republicans say they will not vote for trump. 20 arent going to vote for him. Do you know what caught my eye, doctor in the independents. Among independents, in one month, Hillary Clintons lost 4 , down 35 to 31 , trump has gained 3 , 35 to 38 . Thats a 7 point swing here. If that trend continues for the next three weeks, that 6 gap that they have now among likely voters tha go downs well in the margin of error, will it not . I think there are two dynamics going on bill, you are exactly right. One of the things showing in the polls he has recovered some of his footing on economic handling. In fact, its the one issue but most important issue, one issue where he leads her in terms of handling assessments. My sense is if he keeps focusing on the economy, kind of apropos of your talking points, he has a chance not only to carve in a greater share of the vote with independents, but to recover some of those republicans that he has been hemorrhaging since early october. Okay. So tomorrow, the reason i say its his last chance is because this is the final time he will command and so will secretary clinton millions of eyeballs. I estimate around 50, 60 Million People will watch it live. But everybody else sees it on the internet. On the news, the clips and things like that. You know, retail politics, you know, going from state to state, rally to rally, thats not going to do it at this point. Three weeks left. Three weeks from today we vote. So trump has really got to do something tomorrow night. Fairly dramatic, correct . I think thats right. I mean, if the election is held, you know, tomorrow, Hillary Clinton wins this race. He needs to change the dynamic. I think, you know, your sort of points earlier are exactly right. If this is a traditional leftright fight. Its close, but he probably loses by a point or two. If its an argument about change or a referendum on the state of the country. Sure. He is much more competitive. Americans are angry. They are very, very angry. Doctor, we appreciate it now lets go to the fox news newsroom arnon, michigan. Decision desk, i love that a desk thats going to make the decision is standing by. Lets talk electoral votes arnon. Whats the headline here . Okay. Right now, according to our fox news assessment, Hillary Clinton is leading or solidly ahead or slightly ahead in states that comprise about 307 electoral votes. Donald trump is ahead in states which comprise about 181 electoral votes. And there are 50 electoral votes in states that we would consider undecided at this stage. If thats the math then, trump cant win even if he wins all of those undecides. Thats correct. But he needs to do is steal some states that are currently leaning to Hillary Clinton. The interesting thing is that what were seeing in each of the states is an echo of what professor shaw was talking about the fox news poll. Hillary clinton has been steady at 45, roughly 45 . The mid 40s. Thats what she has across all of these states, both the lean Hillary Clinton states as well as the tossup states and donald trump has been losing ground. In the states where he is competitive, is he in the mid 40s. In the states where he is losing, is he in the low 40s or the high 30s. The opportunity there for donald trump is to make some of the points you were making in the talking points memo and to sort of win back these voters who have clearly left him in the past few weeks. The independents. He has a little momentum there. But he has got to win nevada where the debate is tomorrow night. Colorado, he thinks he is going to win. If trump wins colorado, that would be a real, real big victory. Then he has got to pick off florida is in play, ohio is in play. North carolina is in play. I dont think virginia is in play. I agree with that you virginia is not in play. No. The states he needs to focus on and must win are number one florida, which represents 29 electoral votes or pennsylvania or wisconsin. If he can pick two out of three of those, florida and either wisconsin or pennsylvania off of Hillary Clinton, and win ohio, which is a tossup state, then he has a clear opportunity to get 270 electric Tropical Storm vots. Its getting to be very dramatic. We appreciate it arnon. Thank you very much. Say hello to the decision desk for me. I miss it very much. I will. Next on the rundown, yale professor says is he voting for trump. Is that even possible . Then, later, stunning undercover videotape showing far left zealots may have created violence at trump rallies. Factor is coming right back. The first two rounds have been intense. People have been their lives have been destroyed for doing one fifth of what youve done. Heated. So a man who can be provehicle b provoked by a td not have his fingers anywhere near the nuclear codes. Unlike anything else, now in their last showdown the debate is fair and balanced. For the First Time Ever fox news own Chris Wallace is asking the questions and getting real answers from the candidates. Dont miss we thought fibers that help you stay regular caused unwanted gas. Not good. Then we switched to mirafiber. Only mirafiber supports regularity with dailycomfort fiber. And is less likely to cause. Unwanted gas. Finally. Switch to mirafiber. From the makers of miralax. They offer a claimfreerance a smdiscount. Because safe drivers cost less to insure, which saves money. And when they save, you save. Thats auto and Home Insurance for the modern world. Esurance, an allstate company. Click or call. Esurance does Auto Insurance a smarter way. Like their photo claims tool. It helps settle your claim quickly, which saves time, which saves money. And when they save, you save. Thats auto and Home Insurance for the modern world. Esurance, an allstate company. Click or call. Im jamie foxx for verizon, introducing lte advanced powering americas largest and fastest 4g lte network ever. And im also jamie foxx for sprint. And im also jamie foxx for tmobile. both also americas largest, Fastest Network ever. Oh, youre just repeating everything i said . both oh, youre just repeating everything i said . Im switching to verizon right now both im switching to verizon right now announcer vo theres no better time to switch to verizon. Now get the next gen network and the best value with no surprise overages. Switch and get 20 gigs and 4 lines for 160. All on americas best network. Personal story segment tonight, column in the wall street journal recently caught my eye. Written by a yale professor david galenter who says he is voting for trump, even though he is not very happy about it. The professor joins us now here in new york city down from new haven. I mean, you came out of the closet. And so i cant imagine at yale what do they say to you. You are voting for trump. What do they say. They are used to it i have been out of this closet. I have been a republican for a long time. Its different with trump. Its true. Even the 1 . Half of 1 of republicans at yale are scared to death of trump so, yeah, its a different thing. You say its about 99 liberal democrat at yale . I would say 99 . 99. 5 . Not just liberal leftist. Wouldnt they do better up there if they had a few they always speak about diversity. Get somebody in there. Now, you are not a big trump fan. True. You are casting a ballot for him, why . I have no choice. My duty as a citizen to look at the big picture. Trump is a bum with respect to his dealings with women. Im not proud of what he has done. He is not proud of what he has done. I have a responsibility to look at what kind of president Hillary Clinton would make. And a woman who has been a career liar, who spent her career selling out the united states, making a principle and a practice of doing that i have no reason to doubt that she is going to continue lying. Your vote is basically that she is worse than he is. She is worse than he is. And we need somebody who is not scared to make big changes. Trump is not my pick but. But is he not scared. He is not scared. Hillary clinton would pretty much doing doo what barack obama has done. Secretary clinton is a Yale Law School grad. Absolutely. Do they like her up at yale . Are they promoting Hillary Clinton . Do they think they dont have to promote her. They are madly in love with her. I will say not to the extent that they love obama. Obama really rings the bell for them the clintons have been big at yale since bills earlier days since bills days in arkansas as governor. Proud of him. Do they ever congratulate you on your courage . [ laughter ] im serious. Look, we may not agree with you professor, you are pretty courageous to do what you did, write the journal article and be outspoken. I will tell you, to be fair yale has been fair to me. But it helps that they live in an intellectual ghetto like all major universities. They read the new york times. Thats it. And for the students, too. The faculty and the students dont have a clue whats going on in the world. No robust debate up there . No yale factor. If i publish in the wall street journal they have no clue. They dont even know it . They dont even know it. Is it banned . If im on this show which may be watched all over the country they have never heard of it. They have never heard of it because you have the internet. There is a rumor. It will get out on the internet. But then when you go back to yale, i mean,. You cant under estimate the incredible parochial mess of yale, of harvard. Is it arrogance . Is it snootiness . Is that what its based on or are they just unrealistic. Professional arrogance. Not like they are unpleasant people. They are easy going. They are friendly and so forth. Its a professional arrogance that says our business to be smarter than everybody else. They cant say they are smarter than you. They dont know anything about me except im weird and interesting to republicans. Halloween is coming up. I think im going to go trick or treating up at yale that will liven the campus up a little bit. Consider it an invitation. Thank you very much. Stunning undercover video allegedly showing far left zealots inciting violence at donald trump rallies. The election is rigged, is it legal has been investigating that charge and we will tell you what we know up ahead. Upgrade your phone system and learn how you could save at vonage. Com business. One of many pieces in my i havlife. Hma. So when my asthma symptoms kept coming back on my longterm control medicine. I talked to my doctor and found a missing piece in my asthma treatment with breo. Oncedaily breo prevents asthma symptoms. Breo is for adults with asthma not well controlled on a longterm asthma control medicine, like an inhaled corticosteroid. Breo wont replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. Breo opens up airways to help improve breathing for a full 24 hours. Breo contains a type of medicine that increases the risk of death from asthma problems and may increase the risk of hospitalization in children and adolescents. Breo is not for people whose asthma is well controlled on a longterm asthma control medicine, like an inhaled corticosteroid. 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Fox news has not been able to verify the entire tape which runs about four hours. We cannot completely verify context is completely accurate. Thats important to state. Joining us from washington lisa booth and juan williams. Juan, we talked with the dnc on background, okay, and they acknowledge that these crazy guys probably did this but they say, quote, there is no contractual relationship between them and the dnc. I really dont know what that means. But i wouldnt put this on the air unless i was fairly well convinced that it happens, what you just heard. It happens, what say you . Well, i wouldnt dismiss this out of hand just as if i was hearing this from the other side and i was with the Trump Campaign. I wouldnt dismiss it out of hand because this is so important to our democratic process, this political season. Do you have, i mean, after what happened in North Carolina with the bombing of a g. O. P. Campaign headquarters there great anxiety. And i think it undermines our democratic system. Now, having said that, i have lots of questions. I do not think that there is any conclusive evidence of a tie to the Clinton Campaign and i have lots of questions about this type of guerrilla james okeefe stuff. He had to settle a lawsuit recently. Controversia