For Prime Minister rishi sunak. Just one defeat tonight would mean the government has clocked up more by election defeats in a single parliament than any government since the 1960s. Well, lets begin with wellingborough. The seat now vacant after peter bone was found by parliament to have subjected a staff member to bullying and Sexual Misconduct. He, of course, has denied the allegations and his partner Helen Harrison is running to replace him as the conservatives hope to hold after winning with a majority of over 18,000 at the last election in 2019. Well, lets get more detail now with our east Midlands Reporter , will our east Midlands Reporter, will hollis. Will, whats the mood on the ground. 7 the ground . Yes. Well, were here just down the road, actually still inside northamptonshire shire, the county thats a part of where wellingborough is. But were just down the road in kettering. Thats because theyve got this massive Leisure Centre and this is where all the sorts of counts from over the past years take place, including when were inside of the european union. The accounts for the local area, for the european union. And you can see right now down bottom, verification down at the bottom, verification has the last has been going on for the last hour or so. When those ballot boxes start coming in at around 10 00, we havent got to the count stage yet. Now, wellingborough has taken some really strong headlines in the build up to this by election, and there are a few reasons why. Of course, there is the background to ousted mp peter bone being kicked out of the party after those allegations for bullying and Sexual Misconduct were made by a staffer. Now those were investigated , edited and they investigated, edited and they were found to be true in those investigations. Of course, peter bone, the former mp whod been here since 2005, he said that he was denying those and its interesting because the current conservative candidate, Helen Harrison, is now actually his partner. And what we might see tonight is peter bone coming in support of Helen Harrison here at the council. That would be quite an interesting thing to watch out for. Now. This is one that labour have targeted harder in this hard in this period in the build up to it, 18,500 votes is the majority that the conservatives have. But we know that labour can topple that. We only need to think back a few months ago to what happened in mid bedfordshire is a much bigger majority. It was about 24,000 votes that period. And 24,000 votes in that period. And i think the final reason that theres been a lot of attention on this is the reform party. Theres been a lot of conversation around reform and if can split that if they can split that conservative vote, particularly at a time when the conservatives arent so in the arent doing so well in the polls against labour, what we saw in 2019, the then brexit party stepped back from a lot of seats, including this one in wellingborough. But now do they have the strength to take it in a full general election . I think what tonight here with what happens tonight here with ben and reform is going to ben habib and reform is going to be really telling for the future. Tom. We havent future. Tom. Now, we havent seen the count start officially yet today. But what we do know is declaration will come in at around 4 00. So weve got about 4 or 5 hours till well see a result here in the wellingborough by election as well. Will. Thanks very much for bringing us that live count for the wellingborough by election live in kettering. And i have to say will i know that sports hall well , that was the first area i well, that was the first area i went to a general election count, not a general election. A European Election count. I helped count the votes back in 2014 there, but well be back with you throughout the programme. Cross to programme. Lets cross to kingswood by election this kingswood by election now. This was triggered after Chris Skidmore, former tory skidmore, a former tory minister, quit parliament dramatically in a protest at the governments green policy. Or governments green policy. Or what he saw was a less than green policy. The tory majority is 11,220, with skidmore having held the position as an mp. There since 2010. Lets cross to Theo Chikomba, our National Reporter whos in thornbury for the count. And theo, you have , the count. And theo, you have, uh, you have a guest. If we do indeed. If we do indeed. Well, we are as you rightly say, we are in thornbury. Just a couple of miles away from kingswood. But of course, as you kingswood. But of course, as you mentioned, Chris Skidmore was in that position as an mp since 2010. But he left his role due to in protest, 2010. But he left his role due to in protest , actually, for the to in protest, actually, for the green policy that the government is putting forward, particularly when it comes to licensing for oil and gas in the north sea. But i am kindly joined by luke hall, whos been campaigning over the last couple of weeks alongside sam bromley. Over the last couple of weeks alongside sam bromley. Thank you alongside sam bromley. Thank you so much for your this so much for your time this morning. First question is, do you think youll win . Look, its far too well, look, its far too early to make a prediction on that. Weve just finished the verification stage here. We havent any havent started counting any votes what i can say is votes yet, but what i can say is that we fought a really positive campaign. We picked an excellent candidate sam and candidate in sam bromley and weve been speaking to weve been out speaking to people the people right across the constituency over the last 4 or 5 weeks. We fought a Campaign Based green based on protecting green spaces, keeping parking spaces, keeping car Parking Charges free and having a best local candidate for the constituency. So its too early constituency. So its too early to tell the results, but its a Great Campaign that weve run and im proud of it. Been out as gb news weve been out as gb news speaking to people in that area. Um, something um, cost of living is something theyve highlighted. Is that theyve highlighted. Is that a concern . Concern . Um, absolutely. The best thing that we can do to support people with the cost of living is to bring down the level of inflation. And over the last 12 months, weve seen inflation fall from at its peak, fall from 11. 1 at its peak, down 4 today. So were down to 4 today. So were making a lot of progress in that area. Were starting to see area. Were starting to see Mortgage Rates come down. Were starting wages rising. Mortgage rates come down. Were star1crucially, wages rising. Mortgage rates come down. Were star1crucially, werees rising. Mortgage rates come down. Were star1crucially, were alsoing. And crucially, were also starting to cut too. And starting to cut taxes too. And with come later this with more to come later this yeah with more to come later this year. Course, thats an year. So of course, thats an issue thats been raised. But actually have been actually people have been talking a lot more about some of these issues that affect these local issues that affect people kingswood about the people in kingswood about the plans to build on green people in kingswood about the plans twhen d on green people in kingswood about the plans twhen d could] green people in kingswood about the plans twhen d could] gree been spaces when they could have been prioritised on brownfield sites about local plans to about the local plans to introduce Parking Charges , introduce car Parking Charges, and the best local and about who the best local candidate is to be the next mp in kingswood. Theres in kingswood. So theres been a lot issues discussed, but lot of issues discussed, but its positive campaign. Its been a positive campaign. Im proud of what weve done and im proud of what weve done and im hoping a result in im hoping for a good result in recent years. Im hoping for a good result in rec in the community, and i hope people turned out responded people turned out and responded to positive way. Hes to that in a positive way. Hes a great candidate. We ran a Good Campaign. Im hoping Good Campaign. Im hoping for a good result. Of course, were not that far away been away from kingswood. Youve been here since 2015. Do you feel safe here . Look, i was elected in well, look, i was elected in 2015 with a slim majority and every single day i fought for every single day i fought for every vote in my seat. Every single vote in my seat. Im a man lived here im a local man whos lived here all of my and fought all of my life. And fought passionately get the for passionately to get the best for my constituents, ill my constituents, and ill continue do every single continue to do that every single day. In terms this result. Day. In terms of this result. Look, its still really early. We havent actually started the count im not going count yet, so im not going to make what count yet, so im not going to m might what count yet, so im not going to m might be. What count yet, so im not going to mmight be. But what count yet, so im not going to mmight be. But look, what count yet, so im not going to mmight be. But look, we what count yet, so im not going to mmight be. But look, we picked it might be. But look, we picked a great candidate. We fought a Good Campaign fingers Good Campaign and fingers crossed a good result. Crossed for a good result. Local. You so much for local. Thank you so much for your course your time. Well, of course accounting beginning accounting will be beginning very the pace is very shortly, but the pace is picking up here and well bring you the latest as we get it. Well, theo, thank you very much. And what an interesting fact to learn. 37 turnout there in kingswood. Well, im delighted to introduce my studio guests. Now ill be with these gentlemen up until 3 am. For the first half of the programme. Former labour mp Stephen Pound joins us and the professor of politics at the university of kent, matt goodwin, is with us too. Uh, matt , kent, matt goodwin, is with us too. Uh, matt, were going to start with you. Youre a pollster . Yeah um, what do you think this 37 turnout at in kingswood mean . How does that relate to other by elections . Well , firstly, dont read um, well, firstly, dont read too much into turnout. We dont know is turning know ultimately who is turning out the reform out to vote. Is it the reform party voters getting energised, wanting give the wanting to give the conservatives kicking . Is it conservatives a kicking . Is it the conservative voters staying at it a sort of at home . Is it a sort of resurgent insurgent labour vote . You know, lets wait and see. I think we always read a bit too much into turnout. Having said that, you know, we know whats at here, right . This is at stake here, right . This is rishi sunaks ship. Rishi sunaks press ship. This is the in essence, this is the latest in premiership. Latest test in that premiership. Hes only won by election hes only won one by election since Prime Minister. Hes only won one by election since of Prime Minister. Hes only won one by election since of course, Prime Minister. Hes only won one by election since of course, was� ne minister. Hes only won one by election since of course, was boris nister. That, of course, was Boris Johnsons the johnsons old seat. Um, the National Polls this week. Not looking good at all. Conservatives down to 24 of the vote nationally. Um, conservatives down to 24 of the vote nationally. Um, this is beginning to look like its make or break time for rishi sunak. You know, and i think that this is going to be a very difficult evening if the polls are correct. No. Really interesting stuff. Stephen , uh, we have very Stephen Pound, uh, we have very little to go on at this stage, but we do that turnout but we do know that turnout figure. I say again, 37. 1. But middle of the pack. Middle of the pack. I think thats actually quite respectable under the circumstances. But matts absolutely correct. Youve got to down disaggregate to drill down and disaggregate and find. But for me, the two emotions that struck me most strongly two strongly about these two byelections, and ive certainly been more than the other, been to one more than the other, is peter bowens is firstly, peter bowens activities as activities and his behaviour as the former the conservative former conservative added further to conservative mp added further to the disrepute that parliament is held in. And when i see that what Chris Skidmore did in kingswood, hes cost the council cost the government £250,000 for an utterly unnecessary by election in the seat which will not exist in nine months time and could he not just have sat on his hands for nine months and saved us a quarter of £1 million . I think with these two things, the number of people i spoke to rushden when i was spoke to in rushden when i was up week and it was up there last week and it was almost a sort of plague on all your they were very, almost a sort of plague on all your angry. They were very, almost a sort of plague on all your angry. I they were very, almost a sort of plague on all your angry. I thinkwere very, almost a sort of plague on all your angry. I think labour ry, almost a sort of plague on all your angry. I think labour can very angry. I think labour can be confident, certainly if kingswood. Roger who kingswood. Roger berry, who i knew well indeed, dont kingswood. Roger berry, who i knew he well indeed, dont kingswood. Roger berry, who i knew he won l indeed, dont kingswood. Roger berry, who i knew he won the deed, dont kingswood. Roger berry, who i knew he won the seat dont kingswood. Roger berry, who i knew he won the seat in nt kingswood. Roger berry, who i knew he won the seat in 92 and forget he won the seat in 92 and thats before, you know, before the and the blair landslide. Yeah. And wellingborough i mean i remember Paul Stinchcombe but but kingswood right up Paul Stinchcombe but but kings2010. Right up until 2010. So to extent did so to some extent it did switch conservatives switch when the conservatives got think if labour got in. Do you think if labour win tonight thats a bit of an indication then of where the country going general yet country is going in general yet again you put your finger on it, the key thing about kingswood is its suburb of a big city. There are a huge number of commuter suburbs, of big cities all around leeds, manchester, sheffield, around all around leeds, manchester, shecountry. Around all around leeds, manchester, shecountry. Labour around all around leeds, manchester, shecountry. Labour ar win the country. If labour can win there very, very there then that is very, very much. Used to call it a much. We used to call it a bellwether seat because it used to switch backwards and forwards to switch backwards and forwards to but think to certain amount. But i think tonight know, the bell with tonight you know, the bell with the ringing the the tories wont be ringing the bells. Ringing their bells. Theyll be ringing their hands their hands. Bells. Theyll be ringing their hands matt their hands. Bells. Theyll be ringing their hands matt goodwin,ds. Bells. Theyll be ringing their hands matt goodwin, this is an well matt goodwin, this is an interesting night because there well matt goodwin, this is an intemoreg night because there well matt goodwin, this is an inte more. Theres3ecause there well matt goodwin, this is an intemore. Theres morese there well matt goodwin, this is an intemore. Theres more to there well matt goodwin, this is an intemore. Theres more to this; well matt goodwin, this is an intenjust theres more to this; well matt goodwin, this is an intenjust these s more to thise well matt goodwin, this is an intenjust these two ore to this; well matt goodwin, this is an intenjust these two elections. ; than just these two elections. There are always implications from saw after from by elections. We saw after the by election, the the uxbridge by election, the prime out a Prime Minister come out with a raft policy changes, rowing raft of policy changes, rowing back on zero off the back of back on net zero off the back of that what could we that one vote. What could we see, perhaps as a political implication from results tonight . My gut 7 my gut instinct is were going to see a lot more desperation in number 10. I think theres going to be a real sense after tonight if the polls are right and the conservatives are right and the conservatives are as badly as the are doing as badly as the National Polling would suggest, and on the up and the and reform is on the up and the labour leads are pretty solid. Um, think theres um, look, i think theres going to a sense of desperation. To be a sense of desperation. How they turn this how are they going to turn this ship before the looming ship around before the looming general election . Because, look, i people in number 10 i speak to people in number 10 like know, the same like you. You know, the same stuff me. But heres what stuff as me. But heres what theyre thinking we theyre thinking about. We havent stopped the small boats. Theyre thinking about. We havengotopped the small boats. Theyre thinking about. We havengot anotherie small boats. Theyre thinking about. We havengot anotherie smehot oats. Weve got another long, hot summer weve just gone summer coming. Weve just gone into got some into recession. Weve got some really gdp and gdp per head really grim gdp and gdp per head numbers. Weve got no real numbers. Weve got no Real Progress on the nhs yet that we can point to. Weve got Public Services under strain and weve got a divided , restless got a divided, restless parliamentary party. I