Turned it on the dime and moved the energy back in his direction. So i think, going into this, i think trump wellpoised to win it and if he does, it makes the , rest of this effort by the other candidates that much more difficult. Fernando this shift in momentum, do you think its connected to trump using the fact that ted cruz was born in canada as some wedge issue . Michael it contributed to it in a small way. What it did was, more importantly, is it got people to stop their inclination to move toward cruz. It said to them, well maybe ill think about that. Let me think. Really . It can turn the table. And i think thats what that did. It was the combination. It wasnt the whole canadian birther thing, but it was, you know, no one likes him. The combination of these two. Not only is he not from america, but no one likes him. And people are like, wow. Fernando is that really . It seems very odd to me that the senate refuses to help him out michael its because no one like him fernando and what does that say, though . Beyond the human aspect of not liking him, what does it say about a potential presidency . Ted cruz presidency . If you arent camping along your party in the senate today, what would change if you were . Michael well, i have two brains on that one. The first is it makes it very difficult to be president if thats the case. Then youre witnessing pretty much what youve seen over the last seven years. Barack obama had no relationship with members of the hill, quite honestly in both parties. It wasnt just the angina that republicans had with him or he with them, but it was also even among democrats who had no preexisting relationship and then over the course of seven years, not even developed a relationship. So ted cruz in that situation would pretty much find himself in a similar space, like barack Republican Senate and house that generally doesnt want to work with him or did not like working with him. The other side of my head though, which is more i think more to the correct side of this thing, is what will happen is by virtue of being president , the nature of the office and, ultimately, cruz is a smart guy. He understands that hes going to have to go out and probably work twice as hard to make his presidency work because of the animus that may exist there. I think he would take the early steps in his administration to make sure that he healed some of those wounds. But youre right. I think it sets itself up very nicely for the argument that trump wants to make about him that creates that pause in the momentum that ted cruz was experiencing. Fernando if you look forward and you see a trump versus a Hillary Clinton or even a Bernie Sanders, for that matter, do you think he has what it takes, in terms of broadening his appeal beyond this plurality of gop michael i do. It really drives a lot of my friends on the left nuts when i say this, but theyre turning a blind eye to what is going on inside their own ranks. That there is a reason why two Bernie Sanders is Bernie Sanders. Why this, in the last evening of the last few days hes had 20,000 people show up at events and hillarys had 400. Theres a reason why young voters are not enthralled by him by her, and more by him. So they need to take a closer look at whats going on inside their own party, because its the exact same thing thats going on inside the Republican Party. That frustration doesnt have a partisan line to it. That anger doesnt have a partisan line to it. In a head to head race, what im finding is there is as much there is among republicans. People dont like to admit that publicly. People dont like to talk about it publicly, but its there. But you go and you talk to people, theyll tell you. You know, i have a lot of my friends who are scratching their heads with their parents who were supposedly these you were the liberal, mom and dad, how can you be . But i like what hes saying. You know, the country needs someone to shake it up. What do you do with that . Its a whole new way of looking at politics. So i think in a head to head donald trump would make it very interesting against either sanders or clinton. I tell people that is not a fair at accompli for the democrats. Thats not an easy get for them. Fernando well, thank you so much. I really appreciate your time. While many polls show Republican Voters are ready for an outsider candidate, it remains to be seen whether or not Top Party Leaders will agree. Coming up, whos destined to win and who cant afford to lose in iowa . All we got to do is hang tight. The caucuses are a completely meaningless event with fernando iowas firstvote status gives caucus goers immense power to whittle the candidate field. Yet its voters reflect little of the nations diversity. Over 90 of the residents are white. So is it a fair test of americas political will . Craig robinson, the editor of the iowa republican, joins us now from des moines. Greg, welcome to the program. As you know, many people question the role of iowa in the election process. Why should it go first . In the country. Perhaps not representative of the whole of america. Whats the argument . What do you see that iowas role is . Craig i think the role of iowa is really to winnow down a field certain candidates forward from i dont think anyone in iowa believes that we pick whos going to be the nominee for each party. I think we understand that we start the process and we help winnow it down so that other people in states that follow can make informed choices. Fernando youre very much and have been involved in the ground game. Just give us your impression. Whos doing the best at getting people motivated and ready to caucus . Craig i saw the top three candidates all yesterday on the campaign trail in eastern iowa. And it was interesting. The ted cruz crowds are very passionate. The donald trump crowds are very kind of big and full of protesters its just a crazy event. And the marco rubio, a bit more subdued. So i think the energy is definitely there with cruz and trump. And then you have a lot of other candidates, even candidates that are polling low single digits, are still having some really comparing them to the Donald Trumps of the world, we would say that this is far more wide open than the polls seem to indicate. So, theres a lot of interest in the state. I expect a really large turnout. The excitement is definitely there with cruz and trump. Fernando craig, thank you for joining us. Im now speaking to steve shepard. He is the campaigns and elections editor at politico. Steve, welcome to the program. Steve great to be here. Fernando so steve, tell me as you look at the panorama of this election, particularly millennial voters, what do you think is turning them on or turning them off . Steve well, i think its very clear that millennial voters, just like a large portion of the electorate, are really disillusioned with washington. Theyre disillusioned with the way government is working. They think, depending on which side of the aisle they come from, they just think the institutions in washington have failed. So thats why theyre looking at candidates like Bernie Sanders on the democratic side, who are promising radical change to the way things are done in washington, in addition to ideological perspective. And also candidates like donald trump on the republican side who are promising to really shake things up here. Millennial voters do not believe that the government has their best interest at heart. Fernando and is there something, aside from the feeling and the sense in the country that the governments not working as well as it should be, are there particular issues . I know college cost is a major driver, but beyond that, what do you see . Steve Bernie Sanders and Martin Omalley and Hillary Clinton have all used that as a rallying cry. On the republican side, republicans rely less on Younger Voters. Younger voters make up a smaller portion of the republican primary and caucus electorates. Were talking about iowa and new hampshire, youre seeing some candidates say, hey, its time for new leadership. Marco rubio, for example, is one of the candidates in the republican fernando well, i want to ask you about that, because hes made that argument in a very clear way. Yet, he has, at least seemingly, very little traction in the polling. What do you think is the disconnect there . Because Younger Voters make up a very small portion of the republican primary electorate, thats not an argument right now thats wellserved for him, when it comes to taking down ted cruz and donald trump. But once they move to a general election, and it comes to facing the democratic nominee, cutting into the advantage that barack obama has had in the past two elections among Younger Voters is going to be essential for the republicans if theyre going to compete in the general election. Fernando what would be that argument that would convince millennial voters that seem to prefer, at least at this point, democrats, as you said . In 2012, they preferred president obama. Whats going to bring them over to the republican side . Steve first of all, i think it depends on the messenger. Someone like marco rubio or ted cruz, youre talking about first term senators who have been not around washington for that long. Who are in their 40s, facing either Hillary Clinton, who has been in washington for a very long time and is nearing 70, or 74yearold Bernie Sanders whos 1980s. Theyre able to make that generational change argument that isnt even really about the issues. Its just about the messenger. Fernando well, steve shepard, thank you so much for joining me. Steve my pleasure. Up next, courting the vote that could swing this election. Mr. Trump. phone ringing you cant deal with something, by ignoring it. But thats how some president ial candidates seem to be dealing with social security. Americans work hard, and pay into it. So our next president needs a real plan to keep it strong. elephant noise donkey noise fernando its a bipartisan reality. Latinos are the nations largest minority group, almost 20 of the population. The republican and democratic nominees will have to win a big share of this growing electorate in order to win the white house. But will eligible latinos turn out at the polls . Matt barreto, with the leading polling firm latino decisions, joins me on skype. Welcome to the program. Matt thank you for having me. Fernando so matt, as youre looking at this election, do you the numbers that people have expected or will it be 2014 kind of situation where therell be underperformance by latino voters . Matt well, weve always seen this up and down in president ial elections and midterm elections. And it is true that 2014 was really one of the worst years for the latino vote. But some of the commentaries made on the republican side during the primaries about anchor babies, about mexicans as rapists, as well as building the wall, as well as some the other comments about other immigrants, such as muslim immigrants. These have really inflamed a lot of frustration in the latino community. And youre seeing not only everyday people coming out and protesting but the advocates and , advocacy groups are very involved this year. You are seeing a lot of that frustration on the one side. On the other side, what some of the other candidates are talking about, there has been a lot of attention on Latino Millennials as a new force. Frustration and enthusiasm continues, that is a recipe for very high engagement. Fernando let me ask you a question. Several polls, pew among others, show that latinos, like other americans, care about the economy and security and so forth, yet immigration continues to be a touchstone for this voter group. Can you explain how that works . Why is immigration so critical, especially since most latinos were born in the u. S. . Matt we find in our polling that two thirds of latino voters personally know someone who is an undocumented immigrant. And up to one third know someone who has actually been detained or deported. And so the immigration issue, its a family issue. Its an issue that almost everyone, even if they were born in the u. S. , has immigrant parents or immigrant grandparents or immigrant friends, and so its an issue thats very close and personal. And when candidates start taking positions to say that they want to deport parents of u. S. Citizens, for example, thats an issue that strikes at the heart of the latino community. So because of that, it elevates in importance. Salient or more top of the mind than some of these other issues like the economy. And so, because of that, its an issue that can mobilize latinos even when surveys show sometimes that people are saying that yes, i care about jobs, i care about wages and the economy, immigration is the issue that gets them to the polls. Fernando and last question, what is the threshold number of latinos or percentage of latino voters that a republican or a democrat has to earn in order to be elected president . Matt well, we used to think that that number was 40 , because that was the number that george w. Bush was able to get. But that was back in 2000, 2004. Much has changed. The latino vote has gotten much larger since then and as a result, republicans need to do better. And weve done a state by state analysis to look at that and our estimates nationally are that the Republican Party needs to be between 42 and 47 of the latino vote if theyre going to be competitive with the National Electorate in 2016. Fernando matt, thank you very matt its my pleasure, fernando. Fernando as both mitt romney and president obama found out in 2012, support from latino voters is the difference between victory and defeat in national elections. Coming up an insiders guide to the iowa caucus we need a sticker. Do you know how it really fernando iowa is supposed to be a proving ground for president ial candidates. Experts say the caucuses help reveal their strengths and weaknesses. So how did this century old tradition become the game changer in the political process . One. Two. Three. Four. Fernando caucuses have been around for 100 years doing the local business of political parties. Parties started using the meetings to gauge president ial politics. Drake University ProfessorDennis Goldford is an expert in the process it occured to Party Officials to say, by the way, while youre here, whom do prefer to be the partys nominee. Fernando caucusing differs between democrats and republicans. For republicans, it is a matter of writing your candidates name on a piece of paper and totaling the numbers. All we got to do is hang tight. Alright. Hang tight. Hang tight. Fernando democrats do a lot more wheeling and dealing. Do we as a group want to support one of these unviable candidates over here by sending anybody to help viability, maybe preventing somebody else from another camp, to get another delegate . Fernando goldford explains those caucusing often decide who they dont want to win and maneuver votes away from them. But he reminds us, while both differently, the result is the same. It provides an idea of what the local party thinks or their preference vote. The caucuses are a completely meaningless event with tremendous politcal impact. Fernando the delegates elected by the caucuses reflect candidate preferences, but they are nonbinding. So they can cast their votes differently at the convention. Historically, only 3 times since 1972 has the iowa caucus picked the eventual president jimmy carter in 1976, george bush in 2000 and president obama in 2008. Id like to know your thoughts. Tweet me at matteroffacttv, check in on facebook, or connect with our video site to view and share videos from all our programs. When we return, why would the right line up to bump trump . Fernando has the bottom line. Let us be lovers, well marry our fortunes together [ cheering ] ive got some real estate here in my bag counting the cars on the new jersey turnpike theyve all come to look for america [ cheers and applause ] all come to look for america all come to look for america all come to look for america im Bernie Sanders, and i approve this message. He was rated a by the nra. Not for his promises, but for defending the second amendment. Hes a man of deep faith, who fought time and again he laid out a plan to destroy isis months before paris. Hell strengthen our border and use conservative principles to put washingtons broken fiscal house back in order. Jeb bush. Hes the conservative you can trust, to fight for our beliefs. Right to rise usa is responsible for the content of this message. Fernando many of you at home my passion for this country and for politics. An avid reader, i was struck by the coverage of donald trump in the iconic conservative magazine, the national review. Struck by the whos who of republican thinkers and media stars blasting him and his candidacy. Was this the socalled republican establishment fighting to retake control of the nomination process, trying to lift up anyone but trump . My observation the attacks seem only to fuel trumps claim that hes here to save america. Not just from democrats, but quite pointedly, from the republican insiders lining up against him. To be sure, trumps positions have powerfully connected with a plurality of gop voters. Voters scared by the waves of economic and social change washing over their lives. Voters who dont believe a pledge to cut taxes will solve every problem. The gop has lost 4 out of the last 6 president ial elections. Candidates. Like president reagans morning again in america brand of conservatism, the party needs a positive message that inspires, not just terrifies voters. Thats my bottom line. You can read my thoughts on matteroffact. Tv, or share your thoughts with us on twitter. Thanks for joining us. Im fernando espuelas. Have a great week. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its i havent had time to actually think about what it is life back