Benchmark here in the United States in the bond market 8 straight days of flattening it continues to use versus 10 your 10 year yield down to call it 3 basis points to 175 your 2 year note coming in a single basis point to $159.00 and in foreign exchange really muted price action on the majors the euro was then took a little bit of a slap from the German p.m.i. To a little bit earlier this morning the euro dollar now almost totally unchanged so how will we close out another week Tom King taking his 18th day off of the year racking up the vacations in a big way and putting even more whites on the shoulders of Mr Post way to Good Morning Good Morning John it's great to be here Tom certainly needs some time off slowing down yet it's going down a little bit yes Ok it's Ok You know you need some time off anyway look at it just to futures here you know a little bit of green on the screen here I think people just looking for a little bit of direction here as we wait for the latest development on trade which I think continues to move this market in both directions I think we're a little bit on the sidelines right now and back to fundamentals to get some text from the United States a little bit like to this morning 945 Eastern that is when you get the u.s. P.m.i. So look out for that Europe a little bit earlier on in the session we'll get our teeth into those numbers a little bit later we'll also bring you the latest on Hong Kong shortly with Paul Paul Mounts of Kissinger Associates will be speaking with him and around about 15 minutes time so don't miss that conversation but we have a wood to begin with this cyber truck from a lawn mask and Tesla is that thing I don't know what it is I'm looking at the image on the Bloomberg right now we have a couple stories on this thing and I'm not really sure what I'm looking at I'm not sure if that's the truck that you know a pickup truck you know if you take a look at the u.s. Auto business it's all about S.U.V.s and pickup trucks whether it's Ford g.m. Chrysler I mean the pickup trucks are driving the industry I'm not sure where this one fits in I don't think the guys down in the Ford f 152 were at this morning announcing the year is 1905 and. A pickup truck in the. It's $1.20 this is kind of the boxy shape yes make up they might come up with it stops at $39900.00 you can order one with a deposit of just 100 dollars and the production will start near in good light 2021 we should order I think we should be doing surveillance surveillance truck to pay the balance yeah I'm going to read. When he comes back into work come Monday places that you want us here in New York City Wilmington Trust chief economist Good morning thank you for having me we will not talk about Tom's time off we will not talk about the Tesla pickup truck we will talk about the year ahead 2022 really interesting to me at the moment of the last month this year Renfield just a lot of people talking as if the year is over there's nothing left would that be a little bit complacent just to fast forward to January the stuff thinking about 2020 before we get through the remaining data points we have so far the United States and really went through the tri story as well yeah I think that that you've got it there because not only do we have more data points to come out we also have these looming trade deadlines where we don't know what's going to happen on December 15th with the scheduled tariffs that will go on on u.s. Imports from China and you've got to think that if those tariffs go into effect you would also see the ones from October 15th that have been delayed so we are not out of the woods for 29 teams the question how we frame in this for clients at the moment we've gotten pretty optimistic actually just about a month ago we decided to move from neutral way to equities back to overweight we put that in our national developed and basically it's because of some data that appears to be bottoming out I know this morning's data out of the euro zone is at of the u.k. Out of Germany on the weak side but we see it as bottoming out a little bit and we're also optimistic that we will get some sort of trade deal between the u.s. And China and that's going to be good things for equities all around so we went back to an overweight and we think that's the best place to be for clients so in terms of the overweight look is our other sectors that you guys like. Are you overweight and saying but I'm still going to be a little bit defensive utilities reefs consumer staples that type of thing you know it's mostly been a move that back to the prosecco also a little bit more tech and a little bit more industrials for some of our portfolio managers and then with our with our factor based investing a little bit more into value so basically the fitting with the story of getting a little bit more optimistic about equities a little bit more optimistic in the person suckers as well so as it relates to the economy it seems you know the more data we see the more pressure is on the consumer here because we continue to have weakness in manufacturing business investment and it seems to put a little bit more pressure on the consumer I'm guessing you feel pretty good about the consumer heading into 2020 we do feel pretty good about the consumer mostly because we know debt levels are still low and also the most recent jobs report was very positive it actually took a hit obviously because of the g.m. Strike but the upward revisions to the previous 2 months makes it clear that companies are still hiring not as fast as we had earlier in the cycle but consumers are still in a good spot and then back to the terrorists if we do not get that big wave of tariffs coming on December 15th consumers are pretty set to keep contributing to the economy however that is you know balanced by the by the Cap Ex picture that you talk about firms are very much on their heels here are sitting on their hands because they're not sure how this is going to play out so they're not really adding much to the recovery or is it a warning through much of that perhaps the manufacturing slowdown worldwide would bleed into cities in Germany and really mixed picture at the moment it looks like the price at the slowdown in manufacturing has sort of bottomed out just a little bit of really subtle sign of that but at the same time on the services side we starting to see some damage and I think a lot of people are looking at the time to this morning and concluding we're not out of the woods yet what are you back to that you know we're not out of the woods yet I think that the services measure for Germany was something like a 38 month low obviously being pulled down by the main. Factoring sector which is in such bad shape but you have to be thinking ahead you have to be thinking about what's the outlook from here if the manufacturing sector looks to be bottoming if you are optimistic about the way the trade wars are going to go then you think that the eurozone we do believe that the Eurozone is highly levered to that global trade situation everything that happens in China if you see a bounce in Asia if you see it in China that's going to help the euro zone the markets talk of war it's the front page of u 2020 outlook the interplay of productivity populism and portfolios there's been a real tug of war in the us economy as well and you pointed out business spending versus a stronger consumer a you saying that we're going to see business spending pick up before we see cracks in a consumer actually the productivity story is the biggest thing for us in terms of the tug of war we think that all of the investment that's been done in new technologies is going to keep driving productivity further yes we do expect business Cap Ex to pick up in 2020 so long as it's not up ended by some of those populist policies right now that's trade but there are clearly a lot of other populist policies being talked about on both sides of the of the election so that's the way that we view 2020 it's productivity versus populism and basically which one wins out so look at looks like the u.s. Federal Reserve has done a relatively very good job in terms of in generating a soft landing are you expecting one more rate cut from the federal you think they need to be a little bit more aggressive to support your backdrop they've been pretty clear about this that the most recent rate cut is where they want to be right now and they're going to sit and wait to see how the data plays out we do know they say and we do know that it takes a while for rate cuts to play through and supporting the economy we are seeing those lower interest rates helping the housing sector and some other interest rates are sensitive sectors so we do think that they are on hold here and less you get a material change in the outlook either for growth or for inflation we think that they'll hold here for quite some time. To catch up with you trust chief economist joining us on the year ahead and. A few weeks to 2019 Paul because let's face it the year is not I've written up we still have this self deadline this line in the sand December 15th and we still have the set of negotiations 6 weeks ago today the president United States in the Oval Office with vice premier saying effectively we have a face on deal it just needs to get in writing guess what it's still not in writing and we've had 6 weeks it's still not in writing and you know I know it we're going to probably send our negotiators back to Beijing in the next week or 2 hopefully that can push the ball a little bit forward here but again until we get something on paper you know the market's kind of left a little bit in limbo here got to talk about Hong Kong a little bit later in the program as well the High Court said today the government would be allowed to reinstate a controversial law banning protesters from wearing face masks for 7 days after earlier ruling it unconstitutional this according to Radio Television Hong Kong it's their report citing the decision a little bit more on that a little bit like to let me get you up to speed on the price action across asset and worldwide equity futures a firmer by around about 6 points on the s. And p. 500 positive by 2 tenths of one percent over in Europe a little bit of a lift as well the equity benchmark in Frankfurt Germany the Dax up by a quarter of one percent to give you a feel of the bull market treasuries rallying Gielda lower down 3 basis points on a 30 year down a similar amount on a 10 year note me down a single point on a 2 year note that means the curve is flat for an 8th straight session we'll be talking about the fixed income market a little bit like when the program along course where it looks on me this morning Jonathan Farrow Tom Kane is on vacation this is Bloomberg. Having mixed feelings about the minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now the 1st sitting head of government to face criminal charges including bribery for breach of trust. Is not legally required to step down but faces heavy pressure to do so. Today the government would be allowed to reinstate a controversy. Facemasks for 7 days after earlier ruling it unconstitutional that's according to Radio Television Hong Kong. President. To decide whether the government should add regulations nationwide reports of lung injuries and deaths. In the 27 other journalists and more than 120 countries this is Bloomberg thank you so much we are green on the screen a little better respond here today the s. And p. Up 651. 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Together Invesco distributors Inc pleased to say that joining told of myself here in New York City a man whose resume I don't think I've got enough time in this segment said I need it and best of ball home bats Kissinger Associates vice Chana Good morning to you Bob Good morning and great to be back here fantastic to have you with us let's talk about China and what is going on with Hong Kong and what is going on with you've been there recently and I think a lot of think a lot of people are trying to grapple with at the moment is China's ability and the u.s. Is ability for that matter to keep trying to track and the situation in Hong Kong on another what are you hearing I'm hearing both in conversations recently in Beijing and in my conversations with people in Washington that there is a strong intent on both sides to keep the 2 separate but they do not want to have them intermingled there on different tracks and I think they want them to stay on different track a you confident they can keep it on different tracks I think they can I think that is certainly not only possible but I think it's what they want to do and it will enable think a better process. Both to avoid the 2 overlapping I know you were in Beijing recently give us your sense of kind of the mood of the Chinese did they really want a deal to they want a real deal or do they want to stay deal just on the surface. 3 things one and I think they do want a deal not a deal on any terms at all. Terms particular terms that are dictated begun ited States that are seen by the Chinese as being in a mickle to their interest or their economic structure 2nd they do not subscribe to the notion that there be demand because their economy is weak they feel that their economy has a lot of Stewart even though the growth rate somewhat lower than the rest here and that. They have the tools the resilience to overcome this weakness and 3rd I think they do want to find some. Understanding for a deal not one and I think from the American point of view it's the same thing it's very hard to deal with a whole panoply of issues all at once in one deal but I do think they would like a deal where they're willing to buy more American cultural products which of course President Trump wants but they have a very strong commitment within their own system to getting the United States to lower the tariffs predicted the tariffs imposed on September 1st which they consider to be to have been a surprise that they didn't anticipate and that that set of tariffs is something that's very important to them and I think if you can get something on agriculture and some American willingness to cut tariffs there is a deal and the key point on both sides I think needs to be that whatever deal it is it should stop the escalation of terror is that neither side wants it would be harmful to our economy they're sort of mutually assured disruption haven't in terms of a face to type a deal that they're really stuck the stuff that really require some structural changes within Beijing is that something that you think is realistically on the table I think it's on the table if you picture a very long table Ok I think that the the near term things and stuff they've been talking about and I was just mentioning are doable the Phase 2 trial talks about Phase one then phase 2 and Phase 3 it'll be phase one and then 2 things 2345 and 6 this is a long term process there are 2 different economies 2 different structures China has the goal of becoming an advanced technology power. 5 g. New materials quantum computing. All those things and the key is to develop a common set of rules and norms to enable competition to take place without confrontation to have some generally accepted rules and norms for this competition United States has not faced a country as competitive as China in as many areas of China in the last 70 years so this is. A very different system so working for both sides is a big challenge it's going to take time the problem is that China yes has become increasingly competitive but it's cut off foreign competition in domestic markets do you see that changing increasingly in the coming year I think that's. Doing things that are preferential to Chinese companies and have been for a while but I also think that there are a couple of things that are changing one intellectual property now you have Chinese companies developing their own intellectual property they want it protected so I think the Chinese now understand that having some common rules that protect intellectual property are positive and 2nd they do not want decoupling they still want an active interactive trade relations invest relationship with the United States so they don't want to separate they want to strengthen their economy but they also want to play a greater role. Fantastic as a wise always great to see you Kissinger Associates vice chairman. And China this morning good morning to you. On advancing just one percent of the s. And p. matters visit I c.d.r. . Put their money on the line to help build us infrastructure and deserve to be protected we do that to our unconditional guaranteed means investors receive every payment of interest and principal. Stephen reading from Sep and heard from complete transparency on the difference that should help build America's essential problem. The feeling is mutual. Gerben report on Joan Doniger Apple was figuring on having an Oscar contender in the movie the bank or its star Samuel l. Jackson it is based on the real story of black businessmen in the sixty's who hired a working class white man to be the face of their company as they posed as a janitor in chauffeur However Apple has now canceled the movie's premiere because of sexual assault allegations against the son of one of the real life subjects of the film Sterling j. Brown's been tapped to Narita Disney plus feature documentary it'll highlight some of the people who work on some of Disney's iconic stories Variety reports