Im scott mcgrew. Its obvious that steph curry is key to the Golden State Warriors success. Its also been proven twice now that the team suffers when curry does not play due to that injury. What if you could predict currys injuries before they happened . Or andrew lucks or Peyton Mannings . Itd be a game changer in the most literal way. There is a startup that claims it can. Kitman labs says just by pointing a camera at an athlete and recording his body movements or her body movements, it can accurately predict future injuries. No sensors. Just a camera and 90 seconds of video. That is the claim that Stephen Smith is making, and the Detroit Pistons believe him. The Miami Dolphins believe him. I dont know who they are, but the Leinster Rugby Club believes him. Joined by jon swartz of usa today and joe menn of reuters. Its Leinster Rugby Club . Stephen smith Leinster Rugby Club. Scott Leinster Rugby Club. Very good. They believe you. Make me believe you. Is it as simple as you point a camera at an athlete, ask him to move a certain way, and you can say, yeah, youre gonna tear that part of your shoulder . Stephen i wish it was that simple, but its absolutely not. And, you know, the camerabased system is only a tiny piece of what we do. Were actually an entire software platform, and weve created the worlds first athleteoptimization system. We pull in multiple different data streams. So we collect data, we combine data, and then we analyze it, all to do with the exposure of athletes in terms of how they train and how they play, but then, more importantly, how theyve responded to that, how they respond to that every day, how they respond physically. Scott but were not talking about sensors though, right . I mean, youre not putting a sensor in a helmet or on a bottom of a shoe . Stephen were not talkin about sensors. Were talkin about data. Scott from a camera . Stephen not just from a camera. Thats one tiny piece. Scott okay, wheres the data coming from . Stephen we take data from wearables, from playertracking systems, from Electronic Medical records, from psychological information we take from the athletes and then mechanical information that we take from this camerabased system. Jon swartz so conceivably, they might be wearing something while theyre playing . Stephen most athletes are wearing things while theyre training. I dont think theyre allowed to wear wearable sensors in a game, but playertracking systems collect information through a game. Like, in the nfl, Zebra Technologies collect all of the game information about how people play, exactly the same in basketball with sportvu. Jon but, see, what interests me is that, with the nfl, with all the concussion problems its had and the soft tissue its had, theyre looking at different ways to change the equipment, and the best they can do now is they can have somebody come off the field after theyve been spotted and have them test for a concussion. Im wondering how thishow you kind of place. Its predictive or more preinjury or what tendencies towards a possibility of somebody being injured during a game . Stephen its all about Risk Management for us, and its about providing the relevant information to the practitioners to change the way they train the athletes, change the way they treat the athletes. We know in the nfl they have multiple problems, including concussion, but this year alone theres been 48 acl injuries in the nfl. Thats 48 athletes whose seasons have been finished. Thats enormous. Jon the vast majority of nfl injuries are related to scott and youre saying you can predict that that athlete, bob smith, is most likely to get an acl injury in the next 6 weeks . Stephen we can show symptoms and signs and particular variables that increase the likelihood for specific types of injuries. And if we look at, lets say, rugby and compare it to nfl, we know that teams in rugby are eight times less likely to sustain an acl injury than an nfl player. And we know that teams that use our system are 16 times less likely to sustain an acl injury than teams in the nfl. And then people look at that and think immediately, thats to do with the final trauma, but actually 60 of those injuries are noncontact related. Jon well, i think it would be more offcommon in training orso you could wear the device during training during midweek, lets say, between an nfl game. Thats often when injuries or wear and tear take place. I mean, that, to me, makes sense. Stephen absolutely, and athletes do wear wearables in those scenarios, and we pull that information in, but its worth noting that those wearables only tell us what the athlete did in training. It tells us nothing about how theyve actually responded, and thats what we look at. Joseph menn so what would measure their response . What are some of the biofeedback that youre getting . And if acls are one of your proof points, like, whats some of the data that would help you predict it, an acl . Stephen things like the amount of training load someone has performed, the amount of sprints theyve performed. They mightve changed the directions that they performed. How theyve responded to that then through as theyre sleeping, how stressed they are, how theyre actually feeling today, and how they perform. We also look at, then, things like mechanical changes. How are their hips moving . How are their knees moving . How are their ankles moving . And we can see subtle degenerative changes in those data points to let us know that someone has an increase scott i can see this could work if your data set were big enough. We have looked at x number of people, and based on this, these, percentagewise, beyond the whats the statistical thing . You know, the standard deviation thingits been a while. Beyond the standard deviation, this happens, but whats your data set . I mean, youre a relatively Young Company with only, what, 30, 40 teams youre lookin at, right . Stephen just over 30 teams, but we have quite a large cohort, and weve been collecting data on this since 2008. So we have a very large data set that weve been looking at, but thats continuously growing. Jon you know, a lot of nfl teams have these long data histories of their players. They didnt wanna share them with anyone outside their teams, which was always a part of the problem. And i think theres another thing that notre dames athletic director, one of the things he wants to do is create a database of High School Students before they get to the pros or right before they even get to college, and their tendencies at an early age, you can find out where the deteriorations have started if it has. Stephen thats the absolute future. But when you look at things the way the nfl are doing things right now, i mean, they know that theres a direct correlation between the amount of dollars they have available to them on the field and their ability to win games. Now, weve shown that teams that have 93. 1 million worth of athlete available throughout the season have a 97 likelihood of making the playoffs. Thats an astonishing figure. If we can help teams gain these efficiencies to keep their players on the field, we can help them to make the playoffs. Joseph let me ask you another question about where the most useful data comes from. If im a running back, are you getting the most valuable information from looking at the universe of other running backs or my personal history . Youre looking at changes in my behavior, my response, my sleep patterns, whatever it is . Stephen thats a great question. Its all about you because we found that we cannot compare you with scott. Whats gonna cause scott to break down is completely different. Scott were both gonna break down real fast, to be honest with you stephen well, its all to do with the specific individuals and how we look at them because everybody has their own makeup, and all of these athletes are different, and we cant compare tom brady with edelman. Theyre different players. They have different demands. They have different risks. Jon you know, the one thing though that youre gonna have a problem with, i think, regardless of the sport, especially in football, is the player acknowledging that theyre hurt. I mean, youre gonna say, i think theres something wrong with you, and theyre gonna say, no, im totally fine. And then there are more injuries that are compounded by players who refuse to leave because theyre terrified of losing their jobs. Stephen well, we agree, and thats why we actually feel that our system is so important because our system is there not to say that youre hurt and you have to stop. Our system is there to say, hey, theres something here thats not quite right. Lets change the way we train you. Lets change the way we treat you, and lets make sure that you dont break down. Lets make sure you keep your job. Lets make sure you earn more money. Lets make sure youre more successful. Scott stephen, let me ask you. Youre an irishbased company, mostly with a irishemployee base. You understand baseball well enough to understand baseball injuries . I mean, did you do research, or did you hire american experts . Stephen we have a team of researchers, obviously, that help us to understand whats going on in each of these different sports, and then we have, obviously, in our advisory board, we have some pretty big names in terms of baseball and scott well, billy beane just joined you guys, yes, speaking of numbers, yeah. Stephen i mean, baseball is a complicated game but, you know, people like that can actually help us to understand it, but we also have some fantastic researchers involved in the company thatll help us understand scott jon has one last question. Jon do you think the success of the warriorsthey were fairly injuryfree last year. Do you think that will help your business . It had an influence on companies or teams coming to you and saying stephen absolutely it has. Teams are now starting to understand that they need a healthy squad to be successful, and everybody wants to win. Scott well, theyre sinkin that much money into it, so that makes total sense. All right. Well, Stephen Smith, thank you for joining us this morning. Up next, why your business should take a cue from a car wash, when press here continues. [music] the car wash i go to from time to time just started a new program where you pay the car wash a set amount of money each month, and you can go as much as you want at no additional cost once a day, once a month, whatever makes you happy. Its a winwin, but especially for the car wash because members of the Car Wash Club use those free washes less than they really think they will, and the car wash has a guaranteed source of income. Well, it turns out lots of businesses are moving to this model or thinking about it. Silicon valley consultant Robbie Kellman Baxter writes about it in her book, the membership economy. Baxter is a graduate of harvard and stanford and runs peninsula strategies. Thanks for being with us this morning. Robbie Kellman Baxter thanks for having me. Scott okay, so the car wash is a great example of this. What other things . I mean, obviously, magazines are part of a membership or a subscription economy. Netflix is obvious. What other sort of things are trying this or doing this . Robbie well, its interesting that you ask because, when i started researching this, im a Silicon Valley native, and i was really focused on the Saas Companies here and the Consumer Tech companies. But in my research, i learned that companies as varied as very small momandpop businesses, big traditional companies, Sports Companies like crossfit, and even gyms and even nonprofits are using a membership policy. Scott how might a mom and pop create a membership sort of thing . Robbie yeah, well, your example of the car wash is a great one. So the idea of bringing people together is also used in nail salons. So ive seen a few nail salons where, instead of coming in, you know, as needed to get your nails done, you can sign up for basically all you can use. And whats great about that is, for the consumer, the value, the outcome that they really want is not a manicure every two weeks. The outcome they want is to always look polished. So they can stop in and get a chipped nail repaired, and they also come in on a regular basis at the same time, so they actually build relationships not just with their technician, but also with the other people who come at the same time. Scott sure. Joseph yeah, is there some simple math concept here that says, well, you know, if your average customer spends x dollars over the year, you should offer them a yearlong membership for x over something or 2x or. Robbie so, actually, i dont think so. I think itsactually, it varies, depending on the needs because what you need to focus on is the need of that consumer. So in the case of the manicurist, i might pay a premium to be able to go in and get my nails touched up even if that cost that im paying is higher than what i would be paying to go once a week. So its not always the case that theres like a fixed model that says, you know, charge them x plus something for the privilege of being able to go whenever they want. Jon so is netflix, in a sense, the ideal Model Company for this type of economy, or are there other Tech Companies that are well positioned to do something on the same par . Robbie yeah, so, actually, i worked with netflix, and they inspired, to a great extent, inspired the book, the work that i did with them because they were one of the first organizations that i saw that was really changing for access as opposed to ownership and that was taking the data that they had collected on the consumer and using it to make recommendations. It was the first recommendation engine that i had seen. But over the last 10 or 15 years, ive seen examples of the membership economy just here in Silicon Valley, everything from surveymonkey to linkedin to pinterest. Yeah, so theres scott cause people are paying a monthly fee sort of thing. And theres kind of a subtle difference between a membership economy and a subscription economy. Robbie yes, yes. Scott i dont necessarily believe in the subscription, particular the snack boxes. I think there are like 13 Different Companies that are offering snack boxes in the mail. I dont think the economy can support that, do you . Robbie no, i mean, the subscription boxes, which are very popular right now, are great for discovery, but the purposesin the physical membership economy, so when youre actually paying for product replenishment, theres really three reasons that you would want it one of them is discovery, which is, i wanna learn about cool new products. But the other two are about convenience and cost savings. And those boxes dont do that as well. So my prediction is that the organizations that really succeed are gonna be good at those other two values and not just on discovery. And one example of that is amazon prime is really encouraging that, and their subscribe and save model is a replenish model where you get a very slight savings in exchange and a great convenience in exchange for a longtime commitment to buying the same product over and over again. Joseph does this mean that all those harassing phone calls ive gotten over the years from the timeshare guys, i shouldve been listening to them, like these are actually, you know, the visionaries of the future . cause they just seem like theyre giving me a hard sell. Robbie yeah, so there is a dark side to the membership economy. There are a lot of people, a lot of Business People that use principles of membership to try to cheat their customers. And thats something that i dont believe is good from a karma perspective and also from a business perspective because eventually, you know, one of the big strengths of the membership economy is that, if i am a member of something and its really great, im gonna tell you about it. Scott robbie, with just a minute left or so, convince me. I mean, the back of the book jacket or elevator pitch, i have a business. Convince me a membership sort of structure might work for me. Robbie yeah, so for virtually any business that would thrive on having a longterm known relationship with a customer, from the perspective of you as the business owner, if you have a membership model, you get predictable recurring revenue, you get to know your customers better so that you can serve them better and to continue to evolve your offering to stay relevant. And so theyre happier. Theyre more likely to stay, and you get higher profitability. Scott Robbie Kellman Baxters book is the membership economy. Thanks for bein with us. Robbie thanks for having me. Scott press here will be back in just a minute. [music] the only roller coaster ive noticed lately is the dow industrials. Watch that first drop. It is a doozy but i was talking recently to a historian who pointed out the two biggest developments in roller coasters the modern steel roller coaster, used everywhere in the world, and the log flume ride, the one with the big splash at the end, were both designed here in Silicon Valley and literally in a garage. The Company CalledArrow Development created the modern roller coaster before computers. Now, the historian has gathered up the details of that story and turned it into a documentary. Kris rowberrys new movie premieres at the montgomery theater in Silicon Valley. The movie is the legacy of Arrow Development. Thanks for bein with us. Kris rowberry thank you. Scott now, i wanna point out, your movies called the legacy of Arrow Development. You used to have a venture with an airship called airship ventures. You are horrible at titles. Kris yes scott your movie is really called the legacy of Arrow Development . Kris it really is because we felt that was the best title to get people, not necessarily interested in film, but to tell them exactly what its all about right up f