Were not going to get out of this Oil Conundrum easily. As ive told you many a time, you can deride it all you want, the linkage, absolutely. But you see, you cant dismiss the fact that oil is in control. And weve got a very firm pattern going here. Oil is a hardtime rally on the fundamentals because we have a dramatic glut thanks to aggressive pumping really by the saudis. The correlation with the stock market revolves around demand. Weak, its because of u. S. Demand weakening. Therefore our economy must be slowing. This linkage will not break until it breaks. See, we dont know when the market will come to its senses. The oversupply drives oil down to the 40 level. Right now its at 43. When we got to 40, you know what happens . Like clock work, the rumors begin that the saudis are going and then what happens . Crude rallies. It rebounds to the 45 to 47 range. Taking the stock market with it. Because the buyers of stocks dont seem to care how oil surges. They just assume its because of an accelerated economy and thats good for stocks. Remember there is no jail we can put stupid people in. We cant take away the capital of those who trade like this. That wont happen until their investors realize the absurdity of their own strategies. Why did the rumors start about oil rallying . Well, ill tell you the reason why. Because the saudis actually need oil higher to pay their bills. Its a heck of a lot better to rumor monger Prices Higher for oil than to actually cut back production. You get the same result. Thats why we are where we are. Okay. Enough explaining, but i always have to make that point because thats why the market was down. Lets go to the game plan, try Analyst Meeting for a falling star, gopro. Remember gopro . This one became the object of what i call too much love. It was a total cult stock. And back in october 2014, the cult took it all the way up to 95. Its been pretty much straight down ever since until the beginning of the year, when gopro bottomed out in the teens. I think the company got a shot its got a shot at this Analyst Meeting to tell a pretty good story. The story is about the new iteration. Its the hero 5. I think it will do very well, and i think inventories for other iterations are quite lean. I believe gopro stock has a one down, two up opportunity. Meaning that you could lose a point here, but most likely i think it will go up two in the wake of the meeting. Not instantly. We hear from ascena formerly known as dress barn. Its now an amalgam of brands that have performed quite poorly like to be bullish. But we are in a show me mode for retail. It was once a great story. I dont know if it can be a great one again. The rest of the week has got some real fireworks to it so strap yourself in. We hear from two Home Builders, lennar. Thats the largest by the way, and kb home on tuesday. I dont know what to say about the Home Builders other than theyre very cheap, but nobody seems to care. Lennar is big. We got horton, we have lennar. We this week. Theyre all very sizeable, but i focus on lennar because theyve got the best feel for the country. Its a very fine company. Stewart and miller has got stock. Its down 9 for the year, though. Quite extraordinary given how well the company is doing. I mean this is historically been the best run company in the industry. Now, not so best run, kb home. But weve liked this one a great deal because the stock is so inexpensive and its shares have rallied about 20 . Be really good here. So lennar, a little dangerous. Kb, i like. Two others report after the close. Really interesting. Fedex gives you a great reading of the economy, and adobe. Both stocks have pretty much performed in line with the afternoons. I expect each of them to announce good quarters. I am particularly enamored of adobe because of the fantastic Cloud Business its developed. If you listen to oracles ca hear how much the analysts are still gaga for the cloud, even though theyre cool toward oracles legacy business. Adobe doesnt really have a legacy business. Its mostly a software as a Service Company and it tends to trade erratically after reports and ends up rallying. If it reports a number and it gets hit, dont sell. It could be a better story than you think. Wednesday is fed day, and the recent weakness in the data, and to have quelled the move toward higher rates that we thought were on the horizon. Just last month. Sure, a surprise rate hike would hurt this market very much, but a stay the court, perhaps one rate hike this year, like last year verbiage, in other words they dont say anything really dangerous, that shouldnt disturb things at all. The markets tends to run up into them so beware of a quick postfed meeting sell off in the afternoon, and then if you want to start buying a stock that youve been waiting for to go down, thats when you pull the trigger. Question have three companies i feel could report problematic results on wednesday. Here im talking about carmax, general mills, and bed bath beyond. Thats the only one that reports after the close. The others are in the morning. Carmax is the auto retailer. Its been hit or miss even though its largely been hit these days. I just want to hear what they automotive stocks. General mills has preannounced that expectations got too high, including the expectations we heard about on this show. This could be a good time to buy the stock of one of the best companies that follow after all the washout. You need to accept the fact that food stocks have been challenged by food deflation and embattled supermarkets, for now. Bed and bath has becoming a whipping boy for amazon. While we keep expecting something positive to come out of this retailer, it never seems to happen. We also hear from red hat, which reported, i tha misinterpreted quarter last goaround. I found it better than expected. Should clarify things with good numbers. And i think therefore it could go higher. One stock that ive been very fond of over the years is auto zone. Thats an auto parts retailer. The Company Reports thursday morning before the opening, and the pattern on this one is a dip and then a rally. As we hear about how its going to reload on its magnificent buyback. That ive regarded as the single best on the new york stock exchange. Any dip, fall into the zone. Heres a troublesome one, rite aid. Let me tell you this is very difficult to explain, but im going to give it a shot. This company has been merging with walgreens for ages. I use the term merging as opposed to merged because the government simply hasnt been willing to check off on the darn deal. You know its been 11 months now since it was announced. I think the quarter will be weaker as companies that are for sale that long like this, they managers. I hope that rite aid announces theyre going to sell a huge chunk of stores to kroger so the deal can be consummated and get the ftc off their back. But rite aids fate is very much in the hands of this very fickle organization that is the ftc. My Charitable Trust owns the stock of walgreens, the acquiror, and i remain a steadfast supporter of that stock. Finish line. This is the footwear chain. This company has repeatedly under performed competitor foot locker until the last quarter, which was quite a good one. I expect another fine quarter when reports this time around. My suggestion is not to buy finish line. Id buy foot locker going into the quarter and then buy more of it gets hit on any sort of finish line disappointment, not that im expecting one. Earlier this week i told you that foot locker is a winner. I think foot locker stays that way. So heres the bottom line. This market isth oil. If oil goes down just a little bit more, the rumors of a production freeze will start, and that could lead to a snapback in crude, which makes me feel a little bit better about the market after a pretty torturous period. I think were going to get ourselves a rally. However, all three have to happen to make it work. If you dont get all three, well probably experience the embrace since this tough month. The worst of all 12, began. Just 16 days ago. Gabe in california, gabe. Caller jim, i am a huge fan of your show. Thank you. Caller i wanted to ask you about exxon mobil. I wanted to know what is the dividend . Its the safest of all the Oil Companies because exxon has the best balance sheet, and it is a very conservative company. That said, i dont see a lot growth. Understand that a verizon or at t could be better if you want good dividends and better yields. All right. With lego three for three, a fed on hold, solid Oil Inventories and some intentional rumors oh, i mean reports of a saudi output freeze . That could produce a rally. Dont get too comfortable. Thats a lot to go right. On mad tonight, its the name behind some of the biggest but should you take a swig of diageo. Im looking for value meals in this market. Though the sentiment has turned negative for the restaurant group, im eyeing a few plays that could pay. And its been a tough week for the banks. Ill tell you what your next move should be if you have an investment in the group. So stick with cramer announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Marco. polo marco. polo marco. polo marco. s . . Polo marco. polo scusa . Ma io sono marco polo, ma. Marco. playing marco polo with marco polo . Surprising. Ragazzini, io sono marco polo. S . , sono qui. Whats not surprising . How much money amanda and keith saved by switching to geico. Ahhh. Polo. Marco. polo fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. Polo i love my shop, but my back pain was making it hard to sleep and open up on time. The only one to combine a sleep aid plus the 12 hour pain relieving strength of aleve. Now im back. Aleve pm for a better am. Were going to prove just how wet and sticky your current gel antiperspirant is. Now, were going to show you how degree dry spray is different. Degree dry spray. Degree. It wont let you down. Oh, dishwasher, why dont you dry my dishes . E rinse aid compartment. Its there for a reason. It dries much better than detergent alone. Sorry dishwasher. Finish . Jetdry . For drier, shinier dishes. Why are you checking your credit score . I wanna see if it changed. Credit scores dont change that much, do they . Really . Ill take it. Sir, your credit. Is great right . When was the last time you checked . Yeah, id better check my credit score. Here, try credit karma. Its free. All right. No more surprises. As this choppy market goes back down, im going to help you find highquality stocks that are worth owning even if the u. S. Economy is slowing or heaven forbid, the Federal Reserve makes a surprise decision to raise Interest Rates when it meets next week, which brings me to diageo, the highquality british Liquor Company thats the Worlds Largest maker of spirits. Diageo is responsible for some johnny walker, a close friend of mine, always like to disclose these things as well as kettle one, smirnoff, the captain, along with several wines and beer brands like my wifes favorite, guinness. Now, its been a rough slog for diageos stock. The darn thing is pretty much even with where it was four years ago. Despite its underwhelming long term perform, ive stuck with diageo because i think its an represent real value. And with the shares up more than 3 yeartodate, im feeling increasingly like diageo is an idea whose time has at last one. This company is giving you three potential ways to win and i bet did could have a lot more room to run. Plus the 2. 8 dividend yield is a heck of a lot better return that the 30 year treasury. What are the three ways to win . Diageo is not just a Liquor Company. Its a Liquor Company based in thats right, the united kingdom. After the brexit vote over the summer, the pound went into freefall versus the dollar and the euro based on fears about europes Economic Outlook if they really follow through with leaving the european union. Remember, while weak currency makes imports a heck of a lot more expensive, its also gods gift to exporters because it makes the products much more competitive overseas. Remember, anybody has a vodka, right, but ts its like the equivalent of a price cut except you dont actually have to lower your prices. In other words, the plunge in the pound sterling has been fabulous for diageo. After all, diageo is a huge exporter of scotch, again my buddy, pal, friend johnny, which means the company is making a killing from the weaker pound. Not only are the products suddenly a lot cheaper for foreign buyers but thanks to the Lower Exchange rate, it mmm, cheap scotch on myelin ole yum floor. Specifically diageo gets 25 of its sales from scotch which, by definition is produced in scotland. Therefore, the pound is the currency that matters here. Plus, because more than 90 of the companys sales come from outside of the uk, the currency translation benefits here are enormous and underestimated. Thats why Goldman Sachs raised its earning estimates for diageo pretty substantially in the wake of the brexit dont forget, though, i said diageo gives you three ways to win. The weaker pound is just the first. What about the second in this could be the most important. Again, no one is talking about this. I am talking about the return of china. Last night i told you about how the big crack down on corruption by the Chinese Government crushed the macaubased casinos macau for highlevel politicians suddenly dried up. But the crack down was coupled with an antivice campaign, which specifically targeted the kind of expensive liquor that people regularly give has gifts to government officials, aka, bribes. No, they didnt give this one because that doesnt get the job done. So china was a huge market for diageo, but the corruption clamp down really at t on top of that, the weakness in macau certainly didnt help either because casinos like their customers liquored up when theyre gambling. Johnny walker volumes declined by 18. 6 in the asiapacific region. Thats why its so significant. It seems the Chinese Communist party is softening its stance against vices like alcohol and easing. And if gambling is coming back, then drinking cant be far behind. So while it could take some time, i think were going to be looking at a resurgence in the high end chinese liquor market and that is great news for diageo. One more point on the peoples republic. I believe that bribery will make a big come back there, hence more demand for the high end one. Chineses economy isnt designed to work without a little co of a vast bureaucracy. In the end, the Chinese Communists who run thing only care about more than Economic Growth than keeping their hands clean because growth is what keeps them in power. All the more reason to like diageo. Finally the third big reason to like the stock, i think diageo could be a takeover target. Theres been a lot of consolidation in the alcohol business. We know that diageo is the target of takeover rumors before. Last year we heard some chatter although it never actually materialized. But diageo is a more than 70 billion company, which is pretty big. Its also potentially digestible, and its got a portfolio of terrific brands, in other words, a portfolio of a portfolio that many a business would like to get their hands on. However, you got to remember that ab and bev is a serial acquirer. And now that theyve gobbled up sab miller theyre free to focus on their next target. I think the Worlds Largest beer combining combining with the worlds large is a good idea, especially since the spirits market is going faster than the beer market. I never recommend a stock on mad money solely on a takeover basis, but diageo has got two other positives, the dramatically weakened british pound and the softening of chinas antivice crack down. One more thing. Member. Hes a private equity guy who also served as ceo of bacardi over a decade ago. Javier ferran is going to take over as the chairman of the board. Given that diageo has underperformed the market in recent years, theres a lot of speculation that ferran will focus on cost cutting, bolstering the companys growth, which probably means either doing some deals or implements a monster buy back. A new chairman coming in gives this storyn with diageo trading at roughly 20 times, i think its relatively inexpensive. Let me give you the bottom line here. Diageo gives you three ways to win. Theres a british Liquor Company thats seen a boost from the postbrexit collapse of the pound. Were seeing signs the chinese spirits market might be coming back to life. And its possible Anheuserbusch Inbev might want to acquire the whole darn thing. Put it all together, and diageo any selloff caused by domestic worries. Heres a toast to diageo. Well, anyway, may you go to 120, diageo, but only after cramer ar kens get a chance to buy. Im dishing on the restaurant stocks. Im giving my take on some plays that could super size your profits longterm. Then what weak retail sales mean for the bank stocks. My take on the group. Plus, im turning in my homework, including one social media upstart thats unlike many others in the business. Ill see if its worth friending. I say stick with cramer ugh, this pimples gonna last forever. Oh come on. Clearasil ultra works fast to begin visibly clearing up skin in as little as 12 hours. And acne wont last forever. Just like your mom wont walk in on you forever. Stephen Stephen Stephen see what im sayin acne wont last. But for now, lets be clear. Clearasil works fast. This back to school, get clearer skin for free. Limited time offer in stores now. Is that icet . Nope, its lemonade. Is that icet . Lemonade. Icet . Whats with these people, man . Lemonade, read the sign. Lemonade. Read it. Ok. Delicious. Icet at a Lemonade Stand . Surprising. Whats not surprising . How much money marin saved by switching to geico. 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