Transcripts For KPNX Mad Money 20160930 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For KPNX Mad Money 20160930

Scorcher of a session. Instead, the market itself got scorched. Dow dropped 196 points. S p falling. 93 . Thanks to concerns, some say justifiable concerns, over the solvency of Deutsche Bank, the largest bank in germany. These concerns had ripple effects all around the globe. Whenever we start worrying about theres always going to be negative pin action. The stock is down again today. Its going to play out, and none of them is good. People will fear this huge banks problems will spill over to others as banks are always lending each other money, and theres a presumption that you shouldnt be lending any money to Deutsche Bank right now because maybe you wont get paid when you look at the bank collapses from the recent financial crisis, they were caused not by classic bank runs that depositors are pulling out all their cash, but because their credit was cut off by other large institutions. We heard there were news reports that was happening today at Deutsche Bank. In fact, the markets sudden plummet occurred precisely when the stories started spreading about other lenders cutting their credit lines to Deutsche Bank. Thats the real concern here. Of course, these stories can be selffulfilling. You hear these stories . Theyre much more likely to pull back their credit lines, and without credit, the institution can quickly wither and fail. So scenario one. Some were talking about chatter. Its a Systemic Risk, disaster scenario. Some people assume were facing it. If the bank doesnt survive, it would cause a multiday decline, if not weak decline. Still, while the Systemic Risk of the situation could occur, i dont consider it actually likely because i simply cant imagine the German Government would ever let it happen, although then again the Lehman Brothers collapse. The consequences were so horrendous back then that only a totally foolish leader would let that happen ag here or in germany. However, until we know for sure that theres a deal, the Systemic Risk is taken off the table, can you expect pressure on all stock markets worldwide to continue. The second possible scenario, Deutsche Bank needs to raise capital and capital fast in order to meet various demands. Something thats bad for the companys current shareholders, but not catastrophic for the financial system. This is a stockspecific risk, not Systemic Risk. Until the money is raised, it will cast a paul on deutsche it can continue to instill worldwide fears as it did today, although stocks do get to bounce back when the situation is resolved one way or the other. Typically with shareholders coming in with new capital or the governments take a stake in the institution in exchange for cash it needs to get out of trouble. In other words, a backstop that takes the banks attention off the table and causes a worldwide rally in its wake. That is the more likely scenario tussle with the u. S. Justice department where the government claims that deutsche owes up 14 billion for mortgage indiscretions from the great recession. Deutsche bank has only reserved 5 billion for legal cause, and they dont think 14 billion is fair at all. The German Government understands this dilemma, and i think it stands theyre ready to offer Deutsche Bank the capital it needs. Either in return for equity or as a loan if it turns out that the Justice Department is feeling punitive. Why . Theres no way that Angela Merkel wants to see her countrys largest bank go under. Elections are coming up. Look, every government and central banker in the world now knows how to save a troubled bank. They all got a crash course. Given that the u. S. Justice department is the trigger event, i bet the German Government comes to Deutsche Banks aid. Germany dilly dallies, and we have multiple pressures on the stocks of european banks and that ripples around the world. Capital like ours did, they were never forced take their medicine. We watched as the italian banks fought with insolvency. Deutsche bank is more visible. If these worries intensify, it will initially hurt all our stocks, but the financials are getting hurt hardest. Theyll all be suspected of being linked with the troubled european counterparts in a negative way. We saw that today and perhaps will again tomorrow or even through the rest of the week until we get clarity the the rest of next week until we get clarity. Was badly tarnished by the second congressional grilling of chairman and ceo john stumpf over the crossselling transgressions. Until today it stuck with wells. However the way the congress dealt with stumpf made the whole group roll over. It didnt take the whole market down until we heard about Deutsche Bank. Lets not confuse wells fargos trouble with Deutsche Bank. The former is a reputational issue. The board of directors can make it go away by ousting john stumpf in order to preservth institution, and, remember, the institution must always be preserved. Thats how bankers think. The problems at Deutsche Bank, on the other hand, they arent easily going to go away. Under scenario three, again be, the most likely scenario, we let the market come down and pick its stocks of High Quality Companies that have been dragged down by deutsche be banks creation. Its going to be business as usual once the Deutsche Bank situation gets close to being resolved. Now, i know that things dont fix themselves all that quickly. Theres no rush to put your money at work during this crisis. It is a crisis. The truth is most of the stocks that got hit today have nothing to do with Deutsche Bank or germany in general. First, the Oil Stocks Still managed to go up big. Why . Because of this potential opec Agreement Agreement to cut back production. I think it smacks of desperation. As long as crude goes higher, the right oil stocks will keep rallying. More on those later. What else . Three companies, Different Companies all very different industry reported great numbers. Pepsi co, conagra, and conagra, its food company. That shot up 3. Not much of an opportunity. Pepsi co, a Large Capital stock got held back by the overall market. It initially rallied with a couple of bucks on a fabulous quarter. Ended up closing a measly 38 cents. Thats the kind of opportunity i want you to buy into if it goes down tomorrow. It has fantastic management. Much better than any other stock in its category. I think it would have been a the Deutsche Bank story. Totally extraneous to pepsis business. I dont have time to list all the different stocks i like to tell you about if theres a marketwide selloff. Were going to be in for some more pain before we get the gain most likely from fiscal stimulus. Lets not hurry. My suggestion, stick with companies that support good numbers. Stick with pepsi co, as we have in my Charitable Trust. Goes down tomorrow . Simple. Buy it. But the bottom line is you need the Deutsche Bank situation gets more disconcerting the longer it lasts. Least until it gets resolved. Hopefully in a way that only hurts Deutsche Bank shareholders and not the rest of the worlds stocks. Jimmy in tennessee. Jimmy. Caller hey, jim. Big orange booyah to you from good old rocky town. Back at you, partner. Caller hey, thanks. My son and i have been talking stocks, and he is especially interested. Is interested in aerospace. We were wondering at a play on kind of the anticipated growth in global air traffic coming up, would it be better to go with an aircraft manufacturer like boeing or a Leasing Company like erekat. You take a longterm view, and the answer is boeing. I love fatherson talking about stocks, watching mad money. That is a victory. I saw that at bucknell, parent weekend. Motherdaughter watching, fatherson, watching. Love that. Boeing. Dave. Caller dr. Cramer from the windy city and the home to Wrigley Field and the Winningest Team in all of major league baseball. Congratulations about that because i am rooting for them. Go ahead. Caller the chicago mercantile exchange, or cme, has recently expanded their market into clearinghouse derivative transactions. A rules change last friday now allows Asset Managers to place their collateral directly into the cmes clearinghouse rather acquisition of the banff exchange. How do you see it . Bullish. One of the three stocks i really love. The exchanges are on fire. I want you done a buy, buy, buyer. Mark in texas. Mark. Caller good afternoon, mr. Cramer. How are you . Caller very good. Big old houston, texas, booyah to you. My question is about hilton be a special session on a reverse stock split. So far i dont know if its two, four or six, how theyre going to split it. I have 100 shares, and im not sure how to play that because when they split that, that will be an odd lot because its under 100. Right. Caller i dont know how to play that. Im not a fan of it, and i think you should sell it. If you want to be in a situation, you want to be mgm or the mgm Real Estate Investment trust. Plain and simple. Thats how i look at it. The banks sure know how to spoil a rally, but now that weve laid out the potential scenarios, plan accordingly. Dont be too hasty. Look for high quality names like pepsi co and they can get lost in the shuffle. That dropped too. Mad money, i promise my opec to cut Oil Production was a wall street buying today with oil prices holding on to gains. Should this be fueling to change your portfolio . Concerns over slowdown in china have hampered markets for months now, but there are signs that times, they are achanging. Sifting through the facts to find the top ways to play a potential turnaround in the peoples republic. One thing you cant miss, the ceo of cisco comes here to talk about Cyber Security, the internet of things, and a whole lot more, including a nice yield. Thats ahead. Money. Follow jim cramer on twitter. Send jim an email to mad money at cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . On a day that turns us will i very fast, as i said, its worth every worth focussing on the high quality stocks that you can buy at any market. What really makes me like cisco, the reason why we learned from my Charitable Trust, which you can follow along, is because the companys efforts to get itself back into the growth mode, they seem to be working. They posted a 3 cent earnings beat off a 60 cents basis, slightly higher than expected revenues and expanded margins, the forecast for the next quarter, it was a bit more conservative than some of the analysts have been looking for, but thats okay. On the other hand, they also eliminated 7 of its work force, and they plan to reinvest in the faster growing divisions. There was even chatter that cisco might be interested in buying imperva, a Cyber Security company. Obviously cant talk about who they might buy, but we can talk about that area. Its rallied 15 for the year. Did a good job of hanging in there today, but i bet theres more room to run. Lets take a look with chuck robins, the ceo of cisco, to learn more. Welcome back to mad money. Have a seat. Good to be here. I have to do a little bit more of introduction than i usually do. We know John Chambers for many years, and you have been running cisco for a while. Tell us the different. I think, jim, first of all, its great to be here. As i think about whats important for us Going Forward is, first of all, the industry and everything about the environment in which we operate has, which requires us to move faster than we ever have and embrace more transitions at one time than we have in the past, and we have a tremendous focus not only on taking advantage of these transitions, but also transitioning our own business to what you talked about with iot, with software, cloud, security, and i think were just going to have to do it faster than we ever have. Now, everyone from a previous hearing knew you were in switches and reuters. Not that they knew what those were, bule now we think of you as Cyber Security and we think of you as the backbone of the internet of things. Not necessarily of the internet, although you are still very powerful in the internet, and we think of you as a company that has got a different kind of revenue stream. Youve got something called deferred revenue. You may be doing better than you look. Well, as we look to the future, first of all, our customers want to consume our technology differently than how they have in the past. They want to buy it as a they want do buy things from the cloud and buy collaboration as a service, security services, and we also want to transition our business to be more predictable. Our investors would like to see more predictable in our revenue flow. It actually is great because both of those two things actually. The reason i point it out like that is because you really boosted the dividend, something you did that was kind of like a flag that you planted, and it may look like without people understanding deferred revenue that that was a risky thing. You have epileptic of cash, and that dividend could go higher. From a capital perspective, were sticking to our commitment to deliver over 50 of our Free Cash Flow back, and we did raise the dividend pretty significantly this last year, and we also have leveraged our our capabilities through acquisitions in the securities space and the cloud space, and if you look at the companies we bought, every one of them has aligned against the Business Model transition or towards the new growth area thats important to us in the future. Well, i mean, we have the rumors of imperva. I know you cant comment on rumors, but the idea of putting more money in Cyber Security is something you believe in. Absolutely. Our security business grew significantly. Our deferred revenue within securityw we announced a new next generation product in the fire wall space, and we added 6,000 new customers to that platform last quarter alone, and so as the internet of things takes off and as Enterprises Become more distributed, theres no perimeter to defend, so what the network, which is where our core is, has to play a much more Important Role in defending these enterprises, and so you and i think over the next year to two years one of the key differentiators we have is integrating security deeply into the reuters and switches, which is not putting them on top of it. Both cases, actually. Look, last week we had yahoo with a big hit, but we also saw there was a piece, big security bug affects hundreds of thousands of cisco devices. I mean, is just nobody immune . Is this something that obviously its not the luck of the draw. How does it work . Any time youre in the technology arena, g to have vulnerabilities, software issues. Its how you deal with those thats most important. We released a patch where are be i think one of the issues is one that we have known about for a while and have released pachds patches on. How we expect to operate with our customers is when they find vulnerabilities, they report them to us, and when we have patches, they release those. Its irresponsible to release information about a vulnerability before you have a patch because then the hackers know where the problems are. Its part of how we operate, and expanding every day. Right. And were in a very good position to lead in this market. Okay. Talk about the world. You have had, a big deal inco. Europe has been good. China. Cisco always does great geographic breakdown. Where are you doing well . Weve seen Strong Performance over the last, say, year in a few countries in particular. India has been incredibly strong for us. U. S. Has been steady. Mexico has been pretty strong, although last quit we talked about it. China we had three quarters of growth in a row, and then weakness in the last quarter. Well see how that plays out in the future. Then weve got, you know, brazil has been obviously an issue relative to the geopolitical dynamics. Russia, et cetera. We saw good growth in australia, good growth in japan. I think that the thing we deal with is that all the dynamics, you know, the Technology Transitions are tough enough. Economy that exists, the geopolitical dynamic, all those come into play as we look at our business around the world. Chuck, just where is cisco versus where it was, say, in large numbers. 10 to 15 , 20 growth behind you. 5 , 6 , 7 , within reason, when all these things play out . I think we can grow faster than we are right now. You said that. You were very tough on yourself in the conference call. I have. I expect that we should continue to improve our execution in general. Better at our own core execution. I think as we look at our the Core Products as we drive analytics out of the network and drive security deeply into the network, i think that business we have the opportunity to strengthen it. Our security business obviously has been doing well. Collaboration has been doing well. As iot begins to accelerate, you know, the Jasper Acquisition gave us the largest commercial i interviewed meg whitman recently, and she was saying, listen, our business is really sta

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