Transcripts For KQED Nightly Business Report 20140101 : vima

KQED Nightly Business Report January 1, 2014

And big payoffs. Our market monitor says he has three stocks that could get you at least 20 in the year ahead. All that and more for this final day of 2013, december 31st. Good evening, and happy new year, everyone. Tylers off tonight. Well, champagne on wall street was flowing today as the dow and s p 500 ended the year with another round of new record highs. 2013 will be remembered as the longest bull market winning streak since the 1990s. The dow posted 52 record closes, and the s p taxed on 45 new highs tacked on 45 new highs. Here the scorecard for this last day of 2014 and for the year. Of 2013 and for the year. The blue chips reached 16,576, a new milestone. The nasdaq added 22, closing at a fresh 13year high. And the s p rose seven points to 1,848. For the year, the dow surged 26. 5 . The nasdaq skyrocketed 38 . And the s p soared almost 30 , its best year since 1995. Looking at the sectors of the s p, all ten rose in the past year. Consumer discretionary stocks did the best. They were up an amazing 41 . Now the biggest winner on the s p was netflix. Its stock almost quadrupled, rising 297 . The biggest loser new mont mining. It plunged 50 . In the commodities markets, gold lost its glitter in 2013. The precious metal tumbled 28 for the year, closing at 1,201 1,201 an ounce. Oil prices rose 7 , closing at 98. 62 a barrel. Now that weve closed the books on such a sensational year, whats in store as the calendar turns the page to january . As we report, wall street history shows january is usually a good month for the markets. [ bell ] 2013 was a great year for stocks, and if history is any guide, 2014 could at least start off with more positive momentum. The number crunchers at the investment groumdp found over t last 100 years, the dow got 1 everian and increased two of three years. The numbers are more positive if you look at a broader measure of Stock Performance like the s p 500. January, typically a seasonally strong month of the year. In the last 20 years, it hasnt been as positive. But when you look at strong years like weve had, a 25 gain in prior years where weve seen that, the s p has averaged a gain of about 2. 5 with positive returns over 80 of the time. So stock bulls like the odds of a positive january. Speaking of the s p 500, we looked at what sectors tend to have good january runs. During the most recent bull run over the last three years, investors have liked the cyclicals. The stocks that are more tied to the ups and downs of the overall economy. On average, over the last three januarys, industrial, financials, and Energy Stocks have done the best as investors have bet on a recovering u. S. Economy. Theyre all up around 5. 5 for the month on average during that time frame. The worst performing sector has been telecom, down around 2 . The question becomes whether investors should even worry about details like this. Were longterm investors, so what goes on in any particular week or month is difficult for us to extrapolate from. It probably is a valid trading mechanism. As any momentumtype strategy becomes. And thats really what i think the january effect is about. Reporter in the end, no one really knows what the future holds for stocks. But the bulls are hoping historical patterns repeat themselves this time around. For nightly Business Report, im dominic chu. Another positive for the markets in 2014, the world is getting back to normal. So says patricia edward, shes managing director of investments at u. S. Bank wealth management. Patty, we have not heard the word normal in a long time. Its been anything about that. Tell us what you mean by this. Well, i think if you look at whats been happening the past five years, theres been a heck of a lot of intervention on the parts of governments. Weve had overhang from things like the health care initiative, and so it really hasnt been a market thats been based necessarily on the fundamentals of the underlying companies. Its been more of a market thats been based on the global macro outlook. And that we think is going to be changed as we go into 2014. All right. How should investors look at this new normal world that youre talking about . What should they be doing differently, what should they be doing the same . Were looking at the market for next year, and were thinking its going to be a little like a b student in an overachieving family. Its going to be a perfectly nice return in the united states, but its not going to be anything to write home about. 2013s probably going to have been better. So what were doing is we are making some tilts within our asset allocation. Were doing some things like overemphasizing International Equities and, merging markets equities over u. S. Equities. Beyond that, also emphasizing equities in general over fixed income because fixed income has had a 30year bull market. Weve been hearing this a lot from many strategists saying time to look outside the united states. As you look at International Emerging markets, how should investors get into the areas . Should they go into etfs, mutual funds . Its one of those things where its very difficult to buy individual stocks. What i think you want to be looking toward especially in the emerging markets is someone who has got their hand on the market and is looking over it for you. Certainly you can use the Exchange Traded funds which are usually based on an index, but in a market like this, i think that one of the things youll really wanted to consider is having a professional manager who can overemphasize asia if they think asia is going to be better than latin america or if they think that turkey is going to be the next hottest market, that they can make those adjustments for you. You know, some of the things that weve seen over this past year that were so successful were big blue chips, large cap stocks, many multinationals that did have a little bit of international exposure. What are going to be the themes for 2014 . I think that you need to be looking at companies that have got that multinational exposure because thats where the greatester growth is. U. S. Is grow greater growth is. U. S. Is growing at 3 , emerging markets. China is going to be growing greater than that. You want exposure it the emerging markets. You also want to be looking at companies that do well in an environment where youre in low growth and low inflation. Companies that have good, strong fortresslike Balance Sheets with lots of cash on them. That cash can be used not only for growth, but also for dividends and for stock buybacks. You mentioned that youre overweight stocks and underweight fixed income. Some people like to have some bonds in their portfolio. What are you recommending . Absolutely. For most of our investors, we are always going to have some piece of fixed income in the portfolios. We would be looking toward taking more credit risk and being neutral in terms of duration on the portfolio. Having a moderate length of time that the bonds mature in. All right. Thank you very much. Happy new year. Hope to see you in the new year. Happy new year. Patricia edwards from u. S. Bank wealth management. Investors got their last batch of economic reports for the year, and they were kind of disappointing. First up, housing news. Prices of Single Family homes rose in october, the s p case schiller index of 20 metro areas gained 13. 6 year over year. On a monthly basis, prices rose less than expected, just a fraction of a percent over the strong september gain. This suggests higher Mortgage Rates have slowed home sales. Also slowing, Business Activity this month in the manufacturing heavy midwest. The closely watched Chicago Purchasing Managers index fell to 63 in november. That still indicates some growth, but the new order segment plunged. But in the same time frame, consumer confident rose. This is after two months of pessimism triggered by the government shutdown. The conference boards Consumer Confidence index notched up sick points. That shutdown didnt stop new laws from getting passed. At the stroke of midnight, just like every new year, many of them will go into effect. And in 2014, many of those laws, state and federal, will have a major effect on low wage workers and on the individuals and businesses which employ them. Jane wells explains. Reporter new year, new laws. [ chanting ] reporter and beating back the boss attack is at the top of the list. 2014 will see the minimum wage rise in more than a dozen states led by washington, oregon, and california, all at 9 an hour or higher. It will hit the Restaurant Industry hard. Weve seen things like dollar menus going away by and large or other increased pressure on the price that the consumer actually is going to end up paying. Reporter another new law will affect restaurant workers in a different way. Tips which are often automatically added to the bills of large parties could disappear because the irs says if someone is forced to pay a tip its not a tip, its a Service Charge and should be counted as wages. Restaurants which stick with the practice will have to deduct income taxes, adding to paperwork. So chains like Darden Restaurants are phasing out the forced tipping. Instead providing a suggested gratuity, not on the tip line of the bill. It came out of a concern that servers in the Restaurant Industry werent accurately reporting all of their tips. But instead of the irs going and dealing with it directly to the servers, they ended up putting this burden on the employer, the restaurant itself. When it comes to new laws, california always takes the cake, and in 2014, the golden state is ushering laws that include things like mandatory overtime pay for many livein nannies and maids, or extending paid family leave to include taking care of a sick grandparent or grandchild, sibling or inlaw. Finally, back to food. California will up its farm worker protections. One new law will punish employers who threaten to report a worker to immigration authorities for complaining about substandard pay. And while farm workers already have state mandated meal and rest periods, they will now also have heat recovery periods of at least five minutes as needed in the shade. Add it up, and 2014 will make life better for those at the bottom, but as always at a price. For nightly Business Report, jane wells, los angeles. More headaches for target. The retailer still reeling from the massive holiday hack of credit and debit cards. Confirmed today that some of its gift card were not fully activated and contain no value. Target hasnt said how many gift cards were involved, but a spokeswoman says its less than. 1 of the holiday total. Target says all the cards will still be honored. Coming up, our market monitor has three dividends in place you should have in your portfolio in 2014. First, heres a look at how some of the International Markets fared for today and the year. 2014 is shaping up to be a big year for tech hiring. Global i. T. Spending will grow 5 next year to more than 2 trillion, thats according to idc. Heres josh lip ton with a look at the hightech jobs forecast. Reporter if you have a degree in Computer Science or electrical engineering, then there might be a job waiting for you in the new year. Tech employers are feeling more confident about adding new employees to their payrolls in competition for the top engineers is intense. Dice. Com, a tech job site, recently conducted a survey of techfocused hiring managers and recruiters. Three out of four say they plan to hire more tech pros in the six months ahead. And there seems to be more security in the workplace when it comes to tech. Most hiring image arent planning on any new layoffs. Katherine ulrich, a recruiter specializing in Silicon Valley, expects a lot of demand for those with expertise in Cloud Computing and data analytics. Everybody needs to figure out whats their strategy for putting data and applications in the cloud. And how do we use big data and data analytics, how do we figure this out, do we need to do hiring in that space. Reporter jewelry riulrich s is coming from chinese, japanese, and korean firms, setting up in Silicon Valley and looking for new sales and marketing talent. If you do get hired in tech, you can expect to get paid relatively well, according to robert hastert, the staffing haft, the Staffing Firm u. S. Salaries will increase an average of 3. 5 next year for professional jobs. Technology positions are expected to see the largest gains with about a 5. 5 increase in the average salary for newly hired workers. Technical engineers, software developers, and mobile Application Developers could also see big bumps in their paychecks. And at the Top Tech Companies like apple, google, and facebook, bonuses are being paid to the best and brightest. And thats pushing salaries at Startup Ventures even higher. Josh lipton, nightly Business Report, Silicon Valley. Netflix is ending its big year by giving Ceo Reed Hastings a fat raise and possibly upping prices. Thats where we begin tonights market focus. Netflix shares almost quadrupled for this year, making it the Top Performing stock in the s p 500 index. That performance landed hastings a 50 Salary Increase for 2014, according to an sec filing. The Video Streaming Service is also experimenting with a new model that makes you pay more depending on how many screens you watch on. On top of that, netflix is ending its poison pill or shareholder rights plan two years early. It adopted the plan to protect itself from a takeover when activist nor carl icon took a huge investor carl icon took a huge position in the company. Last night we told you that hertz adopted a shareholder right plan to protect itself from a possible takeover. Today activist investor dan lobes Third Point Capital admitted to taking a stake of 5 from the car rental company. The share rental right program at hertz will only be activated in a person or Group Acquires 10 or more stock. Heart also said its held discussions with investors including corvex about enhancing shareholder value. That news sent shares up almost 10. 5 to 28. 62. Merger buzz about Marvel Technology as well today. Private firm kkr has reported a 6. 8 stake in the chipmaker. The firm said it may talk to marvel about a potential merger or reorganization of its business. The stock jumped 4. 5 to 14. 38. Warren Buffetts Berkshire hathaway is swapping around 1. 4 billion in shares of phillips 66 for ownership of one of phillips businesses. The unit berkshire is acquiring make chemicals designed to increase flow in energy pipelines. Shares of phillips 66 rose 3 to 77 and change. Shares of Berkshire Hathaway were also up a fraction to 118. 56. Hewlett packard is cutting 34,000 jobs by the end of next year. Thats 5,000 more than the Company Originally estimated when h. P. First announced the layoff plan in 2013. The company did say the cuts could increase. Shares were off a fraction to 27. 98. Revlon also cutting costs. The Cosmetics Company is leaving china and reducing its work force by 20 as part of a plan to slash costs by about 11 million a year. The move comes as revlon sales have dropped in the asia pacific market. Shares are at 24. 96. Our market monitor guest says investors shouldnt assume that stocks will be just soso in the new year just because 2013 was such a phenomenal year. Hes corn charlotte son Chuck Carlson from Horizon Investment services. Thank you for joining us. You say there are bullish factors that investors should consider so they realize that this could be a pretty good year, 2014. Tell us what they are. First off, our firm looks at a tool called the dow theory to discern the primary trend. The dow theory is firmly in the bullish camp. Weve had a continued series of new highs in both the Dow Jones Industrials and the dow transport which is perfect under the dow theory. Thats bullish. Second, the three major engines of the stock market in my opinion are interest rates, inflation, corporate profits. And i think all three of those things remain net bullish for stocks in 2014. And finally while people are getting interested in the stock market again, we still dont know the type of overthetop enthusiasm for stocks that you typically see at market tops. People are still fairly skittish, and youll see that skittish not on any type of de skittishness on any type of decline in the markets. In 2014, it probably wont be as good as 2013, but it wouldnt be surprising to see a 1 to 15 12 to 15 gain. Youve given us stocks you think will do. Maybe up by 20 or more as investors put new money in. Lets go down the list. You have apple at the top. This is always a controversial stock in terms of the bulls and bears. Why do you like it . We like it because it fits the theme of where you can buy growth and buy it at reasonable prices. And apple really fits that. Theyre going to have easier comps in 2014 in terms of their earnings. Their earnings are going to grow. Were seeing, you know, Better Business now as theyre expanding in china. You can buy that growth at less than 13 time the 2014 estimate. Plus, you get a kicker in a 2. 2 dividend yield. Apple boosted its dividend 15 this year, and i think youll see at least that in 2014. All right. Its at 560 now. Do you have a target on it . Well, we typically dont do targets, but i wouldnt be surprised to see the stock move at 650, 660 in 2014. Your next stock is benefittin

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