Transcripts For KQED Nightly Business Report 20141127 : vima

KQED Nightly Business Report November 27, 2014

Earlier every year, but is it worth it . That and more for this wednesday, november 26th. Good evening and welcome on this thanksgiving eve. Susie has the night off. A quiet day on wall street ahead of the thanksgiving holiday with a winter storm blasting the east coast with snow, sleet and rain and temperatures that could freeze anyones giblets. Enough to push the dow and the s p 500 to a closing high and this happened despite another slump in oil prices, and a flood of economic da that that was as soggy as the weather. Steve liesman looks at the numbers and what they may mean for the economy moving forward. The weather turned sower ahead of the thanksgiving holiday and so did the Economic Data. A feast of economic reports released earlier than normal mostly came in below expectations and raised doubts where the upbeat Economic Data from the this cont to the fourth. The street was looking for a gain. Jobless claims spiked up by 21,000 to register the first read above 300,000 since Early September and lackluster housing data with a lukewarm report how much americans earned and spent. This economists is optimistic. We wouldnt expect it to be booming but its advancing and advancing when you compare to the difficulties europe is dealing with and some of the countries in asia. I think the state of the expansion is in fairly good shape. Reporter but its hard to argue after todays data we are headed for another plus 3 quarter of growth. The u. S. Is on track for growth around 2. 5 , enough to reduce the Unemployment Rate but not make up lost ground from the financial crisis. The 5 savings rate suggest when americans have extra money in their pockets from higher incomes or lower gasoline prices, they remain cautious inclined to save it rather than spend it. Retailers can only hope that doesnt remain true when spending starts in earnest for the Holiday Season. The proposition is the u. S. Economy accelerating gets another chance to prove itself next week with surveys on manufacturing and services and the muchwatched jobs report, looking for 200,000 plus jobs created. Thats 200,000 people with more money in their pockets to spend for the Holiday Season. Have a great holiday, im steve liesman. As steve mentioned, there was a round of housing reports out today, a triple dose of data that tells the sail story. Diana olick has more. Reporter the one thing not cooking with gas this thanksgiving is the Nations Housing market. New reads on october sales were disappointing. Signed contracts to buy existing homes fell unexpectedly even a mid a 5 jump in listings. It was the lowest sales pace since june and went along with a drop in Mortgage Applications during the month. Largely depending on Interest Rates and what the economy is going to do in 15 and 14. Mortgage applications surged in november but surged off as 30year fixed rates dropped below 4 . Realtors blamed credit but some say thats old news. The biggest problem is stagnant income and no possibility of that Getting Better any time soon. So people really feel nervous about the future, and i think that is what is making them not go and spend the big bucks on a house. Another read on new construction was also disappointing. Sales for the builders were up less than 1 in october compared to september but only because septembers gains were revised down. Year to date, new home sales are nearly flat. The only jump was in prices. Up a whopping 15 in october from a year ago to a record high and milliondollar homes are seeing sales sour. Just sold this house, another property right across the line in maryland in the low 4s and got two offers on that, right at thanksgiving. While the rest of the market falters, the high end on fire. With the market up, rates are down and they just say gee, could it be more next year . I should make this decision now. The high end maybe juicing numbers for now but there are a limited number of buyers, barely 2 of the market. For housing to start cooking, all levels of fires need to have a seat at the table. For nightly Business Report, im diana olick in washington. More on the action or lack of action today in wall street. The major averages close slightly higher on a low volume day ahead of the holiday and in spite of that mostly disappointing Economic Data. The dow was up 12 points to an alltime high at 17827. Nasdaq added 29, a 14. 5 high there and the s p up five. New record close of 20. 72. Will they or wont they just one day to go now before a highly anticipated opec Oil Ministers meeting where member nations will vote on whether to cut production to try to end the fivemonth slide in oil prices and apparently Energy Traders do not think a cut in crude prices is coming. As they settle add a fresh low with domestic oil down 40 cents, it ended at 73. 69 a barrel. The International Benchmark down 58 cents to 77. 75 a barrel. Our steve is austria with a preview. Reporter the opec ministers are set to meet on thursday for what is seen as the most highly anticipated meeting in many years. Of course, the price of oil has fallen aggressively 30 since june, as well, and opec is desperate to find some defense in that price with the oil price under 80 a barrel and yet, who would do the cutting and thats where distinction within the ranks and other producers remain. The russians came to town early and said yes, they would like someone to come but werent prepared to do so. Russians are the biggest producer in the world producing abou 10. 5 Million Barrels a day. They are prohibited at the moment because there are sanctions over the nuclear situation. The shoulders would have had to bear the blunt would be saudi and they are looking to play the longterm gaime. They are concerned shell producers and not opec is sealing market share as the prices come off and dont want to lose more. We may, despite many peoples i can expectations may get no cut. John joins us to talk more about the upcoming opec meeting. Hes the founding partner, john, good to have you back with us. To cut or not to cut . Do you think they will do and what do you think is next for oil prices . I dont think they will cut. The saudis need to hold firm and let the market stabilize and work its way out and draw a line to squeeze out some higher cost competition out there. The very shale production that brought prices down so much and the cartel to its knees potentially. The last time you were here you said what you saw or were starting to see was the dawning of a price war, and that the saudis were going to squeeze out and say we can produce more profitably and at a lower price than you shale guys. Thats right. They tinker the with the price, to china to hold on to market share and the saudis are telling everyone we can produce cheaper than the shape guys. Lets sit tight and squeeze them out and to their credit, weve seen several companies in the u. S. Shale space and now reduction and Spending Plans for next year because what they see is a lower price environment. It may be to the advantage were at 73 now on west texas on domestic crude. Where do you see that going in six months or so . I think the market will take this in no decision. It will head 70, 68 over the next couple weeks here fairly rapidly, in fact, and i think come the first mid First Quarter next year, youll see a price down in the low to mid 50s. Everyones metal will be tested low to mid 50s sometime early next year. For gasoline, what does that mean . That will translate into a National Average potentially below 2 a gallon to as low as 1. 80 in areas. Is this unbalance good for america or not good, an oil price at that level if not sustain sustained . Ours is a con economy. 80 drives the economy and this is a shot in the arm when this happens and it is also a huge competitive advantage to our industry that Energy Intensive like transports but like heavy industry and other companies that have a huge energy input here this is tremendous lly stimlative. You said there are a lot of smaller producers in the u. S. , the frankers who are out there who are a, highly leveraged and b, do not have the capitol behind them potentially to with stand oil prices at these levels and you thought there was high risk for some of them. They are most certainly high risk for some. Weve been finding out their break even point or breaking point is lower than we thought. The range of cost gees from as low as 25 up to about 80 and they spread the cost of their fracking process overall the barrels that come out of the ground so your inextra mental barrels get cheaper and cheaper however thats going to be the worry. You see the sector get hit hard and i think it will continue to get hit very hard and there will be bankruptcies. Some of my colleagues say this could be representative of a renewed financial crisis. 50 a barrel oil will test, and range from smaller or highly leveraged to venezuela itself that will default next year. Provocative words. Thanks very much. Thank you, sir. Business is really picking up at the Ride Sharing Service uber after a new round of fundraising that secured at least another 1 billion in investments. That company has an evaluation estimated to be as high as 40 billion. Thats double the value in june and would make it more valuable than the likes of twitter and hertz. Whether youre in a car hopping or hopping in a car or on a plane or taking a train, the start of the annual thanksgiving get away is getting pummeled by a wicked snowstorm cancelling some flights at the bus airports but there are millions of drivers getting a reason to be thankful. Phil lebeau has more. Reporter traveling for thanksgiving is never easy with crowded airports and highways but this year the estimated 41 million americans driving at least 50 miles will be paying far less to fill up their car. Gas on average is selling for 2. 81 a gallon, almost 50 cents cheaper than a year ago. Gas prices being lower, its really great, really happy about it. It influenced my thoughts for going just about anywhere. Recently with the gas prices where they are, i just go. Reporter they are not alone. The number of people traveling for thanksgiving 4. 2 . Clearly the economic picture is brighter this year than it was last year at this time. And its helping to fuel Consumer Expectations and drive the increase in thanksgiving travel. Reporter it will be a messy trip for many due to a winter storm churning its way up the east coast but amtrak is ready. We see there is snow from North Carolina up on through new england but we believe that well be able to operate and move people and we appreciate the fact that it will be difficult for all the travelers. Reporter that includes 3. 5 million americans flying for thanksgiving. Overall, airfares are slightly higher this year and yes, those who waited to book tickets are paying for to fly over thanksgiving. We looked at actually bookings the week of thanksgiving or the week before versus advance and prices tend to go up 9 or 10 . Reporter regardless how much people are spending to travel, they have one thing in common. The chance to spend thanksgiving with family and friends. Phil lebeau, nightly Business Report, chicago. Coming up, nearly half a trillion dollars in tax breaks on the table and with little more than a month to make them permanent, the president threatens to veto. What next . Well take a look. Administration is looking to clear the air on ground level ozo ozo ozone. A new proposal would lower current ozone emission limits from autos and power plants but Industry Groups and Congressional Republicans say the stricter rules would mean higher cost for businesses and place a heavy burden on the u. S. Economy. Well, something a lot of republicans and democrats agree on, passing a socalled tax extenders bill which would lock in nearly a half trillion in tax breaks. President obama has already threatened so veto the legislation. John harwood joins us from washington with more. John, good evening. What is in this bill and why would the president veto it . Ttyler, its a 450 billion tenyear bill with renewals of the research and Development Tax credit dispensing depreciation for business, Congress Knows they will extend and they are this time again, too, but they dont do it on a permanent basis in order to preserve something that will be an engine to take other legislation through congress. It is kind of a game but washington has not decided to get rid of the game. Now what happened is the democrats and republicans negotiating and democrats knowing they are losing control of the senate negotiated a deal to make some tax breaks permanent. That creates two problems for administration. One, is it lowers the amount of future revenue the government will have so that if we do a tax reform deal that is revenue neutral next year thanks means the government is starting from a lower base, wont have as much money to fund the things the president believes they need. The second is what gets permanent status, and the things like the research and Development Tax credit would be permanent, but the earned income tax credit that goes to low income working families would not be made permanent, liberals and the president say no go. Is any of this dispute tied up in what the president did last week on immigration . Thats number one and briefly number two, i thought that the deal that had been struck had been in part negotiated by the democrats own harry reid, the current majority leader soon to be the minority leader. Thats right. This reflects the fact that they are at odds reflects tension between the Senate Democrats that lost the majority, a lot of theembers blame president obama and the white house. The difference for administration is that some of these tax breaks like the earned income tax credit by not being permanent, that represents a rejection of democratic priorities and the president simply says he cant live with that and that means they will go back and have to negotiate a different package, but these extenders will eventually get pasted. Thank you very much and happy thanksgiving to you. Same to you. We begin tonights market focus with the farming equipment maker john deere. The company said the revenue and profit will keep falling in the new fiscal year as sales remain weak. The stock down 1 86. 99 the finish there. Cbs and dish agreed to another extension of the contract talks meaning no cbs blackout over the thanksgiving day weekend. This is the second contract extension in six days. Cbs shares down a fraction to 54. 20. Dish finished at 78. 24. Bristle myers is expanding the use of their drug and the company wanted to market the drug with another experimental medicine that it abandoned in october because of competition for more potent rival drugs. Despite that, bristol myer shares up. Wonder if todays big mover sea drill, that Stock Plunged after the offshore drilling contractor reported earnings that missed. It said it was suspending dividend payments. Investors were not happy, not at all. Shares fell almost 23 to 15. 99. Shares of go pro took off after they are launching their own line of consumer drones. The Company Plans to sell devices between 500 and 1,000. The stock up about 6 to 79. 05. There is no avoiding it. Its Christmas Creep. The pressure to get consumers to do more Holiday Shopping and do it earlier and earlier each year. But are consumers taken abate and does the strategy work . Courtney regan with a look. Reporter the Holiday Shopping season unofficially kicks off friday or is it tomorrow . Its gotten harder to pinpoint the start of the Holiday Season with the Christmas Creep moving earlier every year. Its all about market share for retailers and what it takes not to lose it to a competitor. The ultimate early bird gets the worm. Its always been competitive. Convincing consumers to buy nonvital items is a feat itself. Online shopping that never closes and the holiday dollar fight got hotter and never cooled off. It is a fight for market share. What is occurring is the retailers recognize with this every dollar counts economy, that they must in fact bring shoppers into the stores as early as possible. Christmas creep is actually changing the Shopping Experience as we know it, so shopper haves learned they are going to search for deals, they will search for prices and availability early in the season to a war game where will they shop this season. Reporter kmart starting running tv commercials about holiday lay away in september and they were holiday commercials before back to school wrap up. Target wrapped up deals on november 10th and had various deals since. In 2012 may scys experimented w a midnight thanksgiving opening and it worked. Now its a game to see who makes what move first and shoppers are responding. Ibm says online sales the weekend before thanksgiving increased nearly 19 year over year and the National Retail federation says nearly 55 of americans begin Holiday Shopping in early november or before. Many consumers do refuse to shop on thanksgiving, but last year an estimated 45 million americans did shop on turkey day and those planning to shop on thanksgiving this year, the majority of them did it last year, too. Most retailers pay over time, offer meals and offer discounts for employees asking for volunteers for thanksgiving hours. J. C. Penney ceo said the store employees voted to open at 5 00 p. M. On thanksgiving so they could be earlier than competitors. While its debatable whether earlier deals add to total sales or shift the timing, expects dont expect the Christmas Creep to ever retr

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