Amna good evening and welcome to live special coverage of the 2024 Iowa Caucuses. Geoff former President Trump has won a decisive victory in the First Official contest to determine the republican nominee for president. He is claiming 51 of the vote. The story is his dominance over his top two rivals. 51 to ron desantis 21. 3 percent to nikki haley 19. 3 . The bit this is the biggest victory in u. S. History in any competitive caucus. Amna we are joined by our panel for analysis. David brooks, jonathan capehart, amy walter, and strategist kevin madden who advised mitt romneys campaign. Lisa desjardins is at ron desantis watch party. This was not the result the Desantis Campaign wanted, a clear and decisive win for former resident trump. Tell us what folks in the room are telling you and reacting to the news. Lisa i can tell you that there is not yet anyone saying they are disappointed, but the eyes of the supporters of ron desantis in the room look like they would like a different outcome clearly. There are folks coming in who said if desantis ended the night in the 20 , that is something that could help him continue on his campaign so we are watching the numbers. Everyone here is watching the numbers mostly. Second third, the position may matter very much to this campaign. They had more staff in this state and spent more, desantis bet everything on iowa. Second or third could matter in terms of who stays in the race and what future trajectory he has, if he can be against President Trump in the future. The conversation is the call by the Associated Press that happened as i was reporting to you, before many caucusgoers had voted. Desantis supporters at the caucus site i was at said they saw before President Trump was declared the winner, before they had voted, they were not only frustrated by that, but they felt their vote had been discounted. That their vote was worthls before it was counted. They are echoing what desantis said in a statement, outrage over what they see as interference in the voting. They believe perhaps this affected how people voted. The caucus i was out, i didnt have anyone say that was the case but there was frustration and i think this is something we will hear probably from Governor Desantis himself. Geoff we have a bit of a delay in our connection to you. Desantis aids aides say he is in this for the long haul. Does he have the infrastructure to mount a competitive race . Lisa desantis has tried an experiment. He bifurcated the way he campaigned. He has a team that is in many ways smaller than the super pac never back down, an independent super pac that is not supposed to consult with the campaign. The super pac has more money and they say they have the muscle to continue on. Desantis himself is planning two events tomorrow with the super pac, going to South Carolina first and then New Hampshire. That is a signal. He put out the schedule yesterday saying no matter what happens in iowa, i will continue to the next two he states. You are asking the right question. What will this mean for fundraising . In the last quarter nikki haleys fundraising picked up. Ron desantis, can he keep bringing in the money to keep going . What he says tonight i think, the ending numbers tonight, all of that will matter. Geoff that is Lisa Desjardins in des moines. Lets turn to our panel in the studio. If Iowa Caucuses provide the first test of how firm Donald Trumps frontrunner status is and if anyone not donald trump can be a viable alternative, what does this tell us . That will be very hard to do, to knock him out of the top spot. For desantis, this is a deeply disappointing night. I dont understand where he goes from here. It wasnt just like he put all of his eggs in the iowa basket but his campaign was premised on the concept that he could run to the right of trump and win over some trump voters who are more conservative, evangelical, but who soured on the president since 2020. Looking at the ap voter surveys, evangelical voters, trump won them with 58 , desantis with 18 . Among very conservative, 62 trump to address 22 desantis. Moving forward this is the electorate. White evangelical and conservative voters. Desantis pathway is obviously not just narrow, it is the tiniest of slivers. Amna lets get your reaction to the early call we had with former President Trump winning iowa, and the margin by which he did and the slices of the electorate that turned out for him. The polls dont close so there is no clear end time but it was clearly a mistake. People feel like their vote doesnt count, im not sure about that but it is disheartening when they have already called it. I think trump is the big winner and desantis is a loser but i think nikki haley is a bit of a loser more than a little bit. If she had won 25 , came in a strong second, we said she had momentum and then she goes to New Hampshire and Chris Christie is gone and she has momentum. She can do well in New Hampshire. Then maybe sprint to michigan. But she cant claim a big win here. Second or third place or tied for second. It is like splitting a doubleheader. Kissing your sister . Nothing against sisters, i dont have one. But i do think the idea that she would come zooming out of here into New Hampshire, the core point is why . There is a wall around her. She can win areas around iowa state but pretty much nowhere else. The class divide is to me, the big story in american politics. She is on the wrong side. There was a narrative going into the weekend that nikki haley was resurgent, especially after, there was a poll that came out before, saying she is resurgent and leaping ahead. She is going to come in number two. Then, the nbc news Des Moines Register poll came out and there were numbers in there that were huge red flags. Not just about enthusiasm for her, which was not really there, but also when people were asked about their second choice and she was like the third second choice of people. I kept asking the question yesterday, could we see a situation where ron desantis, who everybody was counting as dead, his pat campaign was dead, could he come in second . It looks tonight, he is coming in second. But back to what amy said, what is his pathway . What is nikki haleys pathway . No matter who wins New Hampshire or South Carolina . Tonight shows us that officially , the Republican Party is Donald Trumps party. Everyone else is just wasting their time if they think they will topple him. Geoff picking up on jonathans point, returning to these ap surveys where they spoke to caucusgoers, if you look at caucusgoers who identify as conservative, 63 go for trump. Look at the voters who identify as moderate. 41 , 44 excuse me, they are also going for trump. Many moderate voters registering the economy as their number one issue in many cases, even for them it is, they want to return to the donald trump economy they had before joe biden. Moderate voters are flocking to him. This is probably the biggest threat to nikki haley and ron desantis chances is, the air of inevitability that has taken over with the trump campaign. Voters want a winner and they also want somebody whos trendline is pointing in the right direction. For many of the gop base voters, even more moderate ones who have held their nose and voted for trump hoping someone would emerge, they are seeing that there is not consolidation and are getting ready for the inevitability of trump as the nominee. Amna this points to another survey i wanted to look at, which is about the electability issue. The vast majority of republican caucusgoers said electability is a top issue. Over 80 . This was a core of the haley message. If you are sick of losing, vote for me. She posted pointed to past elections where they lost the popular vote. Some people say it is important for their nominee to win in november and the majority broke for trump. Amy electability is in the eye of the beholder. Many republicans dont think they have been losing since donald trump lost, in part because they dont believe donald trump lost. The core of the republican electorate. It speaks to something else, which is, back in 2012 when i was working, covering this campaign, and in 2008 with the john mccain campaign, republican primary voters were told, you may not love everything about mitt romney, he might be to establishment. But look at the polling. They can win. They are the only candidates that can win. These people who have won iowa cant get independent voters. Those candidates lost. We have a generation of primary voters saying when the elites tell us something will happen, we will take the opposite position because we were right to stick with trump in 2016, he can do it again. But the polls are very clear that nikki haley is the most electable of the bunch. I think electability for the gop base voter is driven by two factors, who can drive the hardest contrast against biden . Many voters believe donald trump is the one to do that. The second is, who will be the strongest fighter against what they perceive as the excesses of the left and the Biden Administration . That happens to be donald trump. Geoff the outcome of this night does seem rational, donald trump has the advantages of a de facto incumbent. But the part that is a rational, the republican frontrunner is facing 91 felony counts and his candidacy could collapse at any moment. Then what would happen to the republican nominating process . There is a significant, not a huge chunk but a chunk of the party said they would not vote for him if he was convicted. Some say he will be convicted. That is an option but i think people think he is just the strongest. They think we are under assault and he is the strongest. He has the working class. We spend time thinking about american politics but this is happening everywhere, in hungary, turkey, india. Go around the world and there are populist strongman types projecting strength who often have corruption problems, and it is a dog eat dog world out there. Nothing will deter, if you feel personally under assault. I have been watching these rallies recently and he is a lot more meandering than he was in 2016. More repetitive, kind of boring to me. I couldnt get through them and im paid to do this but he does do a good job of, a sense of we. We are going to win. For a narcissist, he is pretty good at membership, creating that. Amy one of the thing i have noticed coming out of the results. If we bring up the threeway results of what we have showing mr. Trump and mr. Desantis and ms. Haley, 51 is a very strong number. Here is the other argument. That is close to half the voters who didnt say they wanted him to be their nominee, they wanted something other than donald trump. Is there a lane there . Jonathan i dont know. And you know why i say that . I come back to another number in the ap data that is startling. 62 of those surveyed say President Biden is not a legitimate president. Im trying to square that. I really am. Because it is the 62 just peculiar to iowa . Which is not representative of the country as a whole . Or is that a number that as we go from primary to primary, holds true . What does that say not just about the Republican Party, but about the country and the countrys appetite for democracy . Geoff if you were advising the desantis or haley campaigns what would you tell â– them to do kevin tough question. I think nikki haley still has the best chance, to disagree slightly with david, she has managed expectations in iowa well enough to where she is going to be able to get some momentum out of this. Her current standing in New Hampshire probably serves her well. She doesnt have the headlines she wanted out of this, which is surprise secondplace finish. But i think she has the momentum still to fight another day. I think the message she will send to her donors is, im now the candidate that probably represents the best chance to take donald trump on in a oneonone contest for the nomination. I remain the best candidate to do that. I think that is a compelling argument. I think desantis has fewer compelling arguments. One of the most damning indictments of his campaign is that he started in the low 30s in National Polls and in iowa, he was in the high 20s 200 million later, 20 1 . That is a structural deficiency. His biggest problem will become aware will he find donors . Activist enthusiasm to relief you the infrastructure he needs in many of these primary states . South carolina, florida, where he wants to compete. Geoff he initially promised he would win iowa. Amy a lot of these campaigns are about meeting expectations. These are expectations he failed to meet. I think it is a tough night for him. Geoff on electability, for the general election is a nikki haley of more electable candidate . Amy on paper, yes. She is the only candidate of desantis and trump and haley who can win over independent swing voters. What trump can do, he has kept his face together, kept the Trump Coalition together but the Trump Coalition, the challenge has been since 2016, there is a ceiling to the coalition. This is what happened in 2016. He bumped up against the ceiling. He won without 50 of the vote because third parties drained enough of the vote away so that he still could win without 50 . 2020, didnt work. Even in the polling that has come out, if you look since this year, recently, Donald Trumps percent of the vote in key swing states is where it was in 2020. He is ahead of biden, but he is basically where he was in 2020. He is not growing his face. He can hope he holds onto his base and biden loses, is drained by people who either stay home or thirdparty candidates. I saw the average of recent polls and haley was 53 against biden. Trump was like 51 and desantis was slightly back. It wasnt big differences between the candidates. They would beat biden if it was ranked now but haley has a slight advantage haley is at a percentage that is significantly higher. If it does 4650 reverses 4749, there is less of a gap with trump than there is with haley. But your point is good. If you are trying to convince the voters who may be on the fence, it is a big risk taking on trump, and you look at the polling that says trump is ahead , not talking about ceilings but is he ahead of biden in the swing states . Yes. Is he ahead in National Polls . Yes or it is tied. It is not like he is losing. Amna we have lisa with us in iowa. She has been at they ron desantis caucus watch party. I would love for you to weigh in. I believe she is doing live reporting at the moment. Or maybe she can hear us . Geoff can you hear us, lisa . Amna are you able to hear us . Geoff we are told the Associated Press has called secondplace for ron desantis. Who wants to take that jump all . Jump ball . I was right. I was right but that doesnt do him any good because like we were saying before, im repeating amy walter, he put all of his eggs in the iowa basket. Not just i want to win the state, he moved to iowa. He is the governor of florida but he moved to iowa. He came up way short. But look. If i were the Desantis Campaign i would be happy right now because again, going into the weekend he was supposed to get trounced. It was supposed to be number three. Amna we have Lisa Desjardins with us. We would love for you to weigh in. We have heard officially the Associated Press has said ron desantis has come in second in iowa. Weigh in on the future of the Desantis Campaign in particular. Lisa you can tell they have begun to bring out the speakers. This is probably a few steps before we see Governor Desantis speak, but what i hear from the crowd on the podium is not so much celebration, there is a little of that at being second, but defiance. This is a campaign, and you brought this up just now, that is starting to talk openly about the idea that this election was rigged against them by the media. The speaker is a conservative talk show host that is well known in iowa. He brought up the idea, there you go, stop the steel. He was clearly making allusion not to 2020 only, but tonight. Ron desantis had behind him a large banner that said no excuses, just results. I think we will hear that, talk about the Associated Press in terms of their placement in the race. I hear what david is saying, or i think jonathan was talking about the idea that this actually may have been a better result than some expected for the Desantis Campaign. When i see these results, talking to voters here, one thing you might be missing is that most of the people who voted for desantis and haley, a lot of them would probably either vote, would probably consider donald trump. Lots of haley voters are seen as never trump but i didnt find that to be the case. Many people prefer her to trump, but prefer trump to biden or they wouldnt vote at all. Talking about desantis and haley come of the margin is so large. If you are asking me, Desantis Campaign future, there is a future for them tonight. You can hear the defiance and anger but im more wondering what the defiance and anger means for a potential, a Trump Nominee or whoever is the nominee in the fall. Geoff we talked about how the gop primary has been a battle of attrition to see who would take on donald trump and we can confirm one more candidate dropped out. Vivek ramaswamy has left the race. Amna this idea that the stop the steal message, calling into question the results, has already begun to permeate the race at least from the Desantis Campaign. What are you watching