Transcripts For KQEH Nightly Business Report 20150310 : vima

KQEH Nightly Business Report March 10, 2015

Different from what we witnessed on this day in 2009 when the u. S. Was in a deep recession housing had collapsed, and Lehman Brothers had gone under. Fast forward six years, the s p 500 has more than tripled since bottoming, led by Consumer Discretionary stocks. Nine stocks have gained more than 1,000 . Today the Dow Jones Industrial average closed up nearly 139 points to finish just under 18,0. The nasdaq added 15 and the s p 500 tacked on 8. We take a look now at the anatomy of the sixyear bull market run. The bull market is six years old this month. Time to celebrate or get a little worried . Maybe its a little bit of both. Its been an incredible run. March 6th, 2009 the s p 500 was up 211 . Most of it has been straight up. Its been a long run of 26 bull markets in the past 85 years. This is the fourth longest according to the wall street journal. There are three reasons for this historic run. First, earnings have hit a record high as corporations have learned to cut costs and run more efficiently. Buybacks have surged as Corporate America has invested in their stocks at the expense of growing their business. And finally, theres the fed. No one knows how much higher the stock market is because of the feds stimulus program. But no one, including the fed, doubts that this is an important factor in the rally. And thats the problem investors have now. The economy is clearly improving. But theyre worried that even a moderate rise in Interest Rates or hint that the fed will raise rates anytime soon will end the rally. Im worried that if for example, we go into the march meeting next week and they decide to take out the word patient, you see what happened friday with the first hint that things will move up. Well have to see how the market reacts. Theres a whole school who believe the fed who will not let things fall apart again. For nightly business report, im here at the new york stock exchange. Whats next for u. S. Stocks. We welcome back john manley chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management and senior Portfolio Management with Morgan Stanley wealth management. Welcome back to both of you. You take the position that this may be a kind of pause year in stocks. Why do you say that . I think three reasons. Number one is the market has compounded at 20 a year for the last three years. And last t s the hottest product . It was the s p index fund. I know it usually doesnt do well the next year. Earnings estimates are coming down. Thats a reverse from 20102011 when even though the market was dipping, estimates hadnt really revised down. Im concerned about a decline in earnings. And then three, what did we learn last year about tapering . When the fed began tap erg, the market didnt do anything until the tapering was over. I think thats coming up this year as well. Its been a very strong market. Stilts have come down. That worries me. And fed policy. You know, john those are some very interesting points but you disagree to a certain extent youre still bullish and you dont think weve kind of hit that enthusiastic phase . Bull markets always sort of end with a bang. Theres always a period of time when the market pulls money in and that hasnt really happened. I cant say that its not going to be down 5 6 7 . The things that made it go up over the years, the last six years are still there. The earnings are down because of oil and the dollar. Those things are rather efemoral efemoral. Let me turn back to you, andrew and ask whether you think in light of the slowing of earnings the bull market is intact even if you believe it may be due for a pause, that refreshes. Is it a pause that refreshes or pause that ends . No i think were in a bull market. I think we have multiyears to go. I think the year will end up being a disappointing, albeit maybe positive but very low positive year for u. S. Equities. For u. S. Equities. I think it will be better elsewhere, but for u. S. Equities i think it will be a low singledigit return year and it will be a pause, not the end of the bull market. Don, what kind of returns are you looking for this year . And how selective do investors have to be in a market that has run so far . The main number that the singledigit number i dont disagree with. I think thats the best target high single digits. I think theres still that potential that people get really excited. How many corrections we had in the last three or four years, sometimes its the boy who cries wolf. At some point the investors are thinking im missing something and theyre skeptical of the skepticism. Cant argue with overseas being more attractive, but its still u. S. Good. I want to turn back to your point about international being better target of opportunity. If youd put money into european equities at the start of the year youd be feeling pretty smart now. Do you anticipate that europe is going to be one of those targets of opportunity, or when you Say International elsewhere, are you talking beyond there . Sure. Look im a portfolio manager. I focus on companies, and the flaw of investing last year in europe was that companies were not really generating good Earnings Growth. And that has started to change and the big change was that the euro peak last may, and there tends to be about a six to ninemonth lag between when theres a big change in the currency and when the earnings start to kick in. This year unlike last year the earnings started to accelerate. Thats been the key problem for europe. Yes, you have good European Central bank policy but without Earnings Growth you cant kick start the stock market. I think thats the change this year versus last year. Don, one of the things that the markets watching for very carefully is the next fomc meeting, whether or not as it was said in the report whether they take the word patient out and whether they move unon Interest Rates. You maintain even if they raise rates, thats not necessarily a tightening. Its tightening when they try to restrain the economy. When they set Interest Rates or policies in such a manner that will pull money out of the economy, and therefore, out of the capital market. I dont think thats going to happen. I think they may raise rates. Thats just a recognition that the economys getting stronger and we no longer need these extraordinarily low rates. Theyll still be pushing money toward the economy. They meet less resistance when things get better. You have to adjust for that. I think there will probably be some change in the langu while it may cause a pause to a certain degree its still a good thing for the u. S. Markets. As andrew said europe is a couple years behind us. Gentlemen, thank you for a thoughtful and helpful decision. And now to mcdonalds, which saw another month of worse than expected sales in the u. S. And gl the company, which is pretty much synonymous with fast food has seen traffic and profits fall. Now the new chief executive is under pressure to turn things around. Despite the weak sales reports, shares of mcdonalds did rise slightly. Courtney has more on mcdonalds tarnished arches. The golden arches arent bringing in golden sales. It may be the largest restaurant chain, but its been getting attention for all the wrong reasons. The fast food chains worldwide february sales fell nearly 2 . Just under half of mcdonalds total sales come from the u. S. Comparable sales throughout the disappointing 4 in that key market and fared slightly worse in asia. Competition from fast food and rivals increased prices off the higher labor and ingredients costs, and consumers appetites for healthier alternatives are contributing to the mcdonalds sales slump. The restaurant has been working to regain asian consumer after food safety issues surfaced there last year. The disappointing sales trend cost ceo don thunderstorm son his don thompson his easterbrook took over as chief executive. Mcdonalds executives acknowledge, consumers needs and preferences have changed and say theres an urgent need to evolve. Simpler and more regional menus are part of the plan changes. Just last week the company said it would begin to phase out chickens raised with human antibiotics. This regional approach the quality upgrades also the technology stuff, that should help in the second half of the year. Thats when we and i think the company, would be looking for them to get stability. At that point also i think youre going to get some help from refranchising, maybe some debt leverage to help shareholders get more positive. Reporter he said mcdonalds will continue to face pressure in the space. But the changes to come have made him more optimistic about the companys outlook. Despite the Silver Lining he still sees a long road to recovery for the golden arches. General motors plans to repurchase 5 billion in shares by the end of next year. Now, the move is part of the deal reached with an Investor Group that averts a proxy fight over the companys Balance Sheet, as part of the agreement the investor harry wilson will withdraw his candidacy for a seat on gms board of directors. On a Conference Call this morning, the ceo said the Balance Sheet is strong and she is focused now on longterm growth. We believe were in a position to move forward with this framework because were executing ongs alli. Weve made a lot of progress on the customer focused strategy. Investors did seem to like the move. They sent shares of gm up 3 . Now to europe where the European Central banks Bond Buying Program began today. National Central Banks brought up their own Government Debt including german french italian and belgian bonds. The ecbs Quantitative Easing Program is intended to prop up the regions sluggish economy. Finance ministers urngged creditors to continue talks. Some say there hasnt been enough progress on new policy measures. A top message given to the greek authorities by the other eurozone finance ministers. We have spent now two weeks apparently discussing who meets whom where, in what country, and what agenda. Its a complete waste of time. Thats why we simply set up and talked about this long enough now, lets start on wednesday. They ultimately want to see greater details about the financial situation in greece right now. And talks behind the scenes havent really started. Greece needs to step up as far as greater reforms,. The other question raised by a lot of the journalists here was, whats going to happen as far as the consent. We know they have to pay the imf over 1 billion euros in the next two weeks. The message was very clear, greece has to withdraw itself. Theyre willing to be flexible but they want to see Economic Reforms implemented before theyre willing to help. Were likely to see more discussions on this in the coming weeks. Still ahead, some call your credit score the most important number of your financial life. And now, for the first time in a decade it may get easier to fix mistakes on your rep the nations budget deficit will rise slightly this year. The Congressional Budget Office said the deficit will increase 486 billion, slight increase over the cbos last projection. That rise is a tributed to more on Medicare Medicaid and student loans. But they say the deficit will fall in the coming years. President obama outlined an initiative today that focuses on a larger technology force. He has commitments for more than 300 employers as well as local governments to train and Hire Software developers Information Technology engineers, and cybersecurity pros. Companies like linkedin are going to use data to help identify the skills that employers need. Employers like capital one are going to help recruit, train and employ more new tech workers not out of charity but because its a Smart Business decision. All that this is going to help us to match the jobs to the worker. There are an estimated 500,000 job openings in tech related fields right now while wages in other fields remain stagnant. If you want to rent an apartment or apply for a job, your credit score matters. Now it will be easier to get errors off of your report. The big three credit bureaus, equifax, experion and transunion said they will make it easier to change the way medical debt is reported. Its all part of a settlement with new york states attorney general. Ayman is fog this story tonight. Did this come about because the agencies broke any rules or its for Something Different . The agencies say they didnt break any laws here but the new York State Attorney general is looking into their practices over the past several years. This is a story, sue, that could affect ultimately about 200 million people. Among the changes now announced in this deal is the fact that actual human beings are going to be involved if you have a dispute over your Credit Report. That didnt necessarily used to be true. A lot of those disputes were reviewed automatically by robots. They said theyre actually going to train people to review some of those disputes. If you have an error in your Credit Report that might mean it will be a lot easier to get it fixed. Heres the new York State Attorney general. The Credit Reporting system in america that were addressing today suffers from inaccuracy. Many consumers have to deal with incorrect Credit Reports, have lifechanging errors that are far beyond their control. Now, the industry responded through a trade association saying were always looking for ways to improve our procedure and this plan will allow us to do just that. And guys the government says about 8 million disputes were filed with reporting agencies in 2011. So this new change will help a lot of those folks. Lets talk a little bit about health debt. Its a big constituent for americans indebtedness. A lot of problems people have with imbalances showing up in their Credit Report is due to the insurance companys delay in paying or disputes that the individual has nothing to do with. Theres going to be a 180delay before it shows up on a Credit Report. That could help a lot of people who are caught between the Credit Rating agencies and companies. Ayman, thank you. You bet. Alcoa is buying Rti International metals. And that is where we begin tonights market focus. The aluminum giant buying the titanium supplier in an effort to grow the aerospace business. Why is this a good deal . On the one hand we are expanding all value in business. Secondly were expanding it in aerospace that is high growth. This year we believe the commercial aircraft are going to grow 15 . Overall 5 to 6 annual growth rate. Shares of alcoa offjust 30 a share. Simon Property Group is launching a hostile bid for rival macerich worth about 16 billion, after saying macerich refused to discuss the confirmation. The activist star board value is upping to yahoo now. They want a Major Overhaul there. They want to spin off its stake in yahoo japan. Shares there off 1 to 42. 98. Shares of Whiting Petroleum popped on reports that it is seeking a buyer. The search comes as the price of crude plummets which has taken a bite out of the oil and Gas Producers results. Shares moved up to 37. 71. A retailer sales were in line with consensus. The stock was up 1. 5 to 39. 51. Qualcomm is returning cash to shareholders. The tech giant announcing a 15 billion buyback and dividend hike of 14 . The yield on that payout is about 2. 3 . Shares spiked right after the close. The stock was about 1. 5 higher to 72. 71. Coming up whats at stake for apple as it unveils its much anticipated apple watch. Gas prices keep climb. The average price of regular grade gas rose 1 cents in the past two weeks. Now sits at 2. 54 a gallon on average nationally. Still about 1 below where they were last year. Baton rouge had 2. 61. L. A. The highest, 3. 48 a gallon. It is here the highly anticipated apple watch. Apple unveiled it today at an event in san francisco, making it the first new category to be introduced under ceo tim cook. As you can see, shares of apple rose during the event, but then ended up 54 cents up more on the watch and why it is so important to apple. The apple watch is the most advanced timepiece ever created. Reporter apple ceo tim cook today unveiled the companys first new product category in. Apple watch. Its not just with you, its on you. And since what you wear is an expression of who you are, we designed apple watch to appeal to a whole variety of people with different tastes and different preferences. Reporter the watch is available in three collectio. Apple watch sport, beginning at 349 apple watch collection available starting at 549 and apple watch edition, an 18 karat gold model with prices starting at 10,000. One potential problem for apple, its competing in a crowded field of smart watches, but rivals such as motorola and lg. However, to date consumers havent been too excited about smart watches, only 720,000 android wear devices shipped in 2014 according to research a firm analysis. But apple said its new watch isnt just a very accurate timepiece, it also lets users send messages read emails and answer calls right from their wrists. The watch is a fitness companion as well measuring calories and providing a snapshot of daily activity. The watch only works with an iphone 5 and higher. They think it could prove a big hit with apple loyalists. If you assume maybe 10 , 20 , 30 buy watches, you get into huge numbers. Reporte

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