Opposition leader is behind bars tonight. We look at how the conviction of Alexei Navalny is reverberating in russia and here in the u. S. Woodruff a Connecticut School district is wrestling with the best way to teach spanishspeaking students. Special correspondent john tulenko reports on their debate. A basic truth in teaching is that you start with what your students know, whether thats spanish, german, polish, and you build on that. Happy birthday, tata happy birthday, tata brown and former South African president Nelson Mandela turned 95 years old today. We have the story of celebrations and tributes in his homeland and around the world. Brown thats all ahead on tonights newshour. Major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by moving our economy for 160 years. Bnsf, the engine that connects us. And by the alfred p. Sloan foundation. Supporting science, technology, and improved Economic Performance and Financial Literacy in the 21st century. And with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. And. This program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. And by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. Thank you. Brown much of the public remains skeptical or unaware, an important component has been delayed, and republicans continue their attempts to derail it. But president obama again today offered a Strong Defense of his Signature Healthcare reform law. His remarks came as deadlines approach for its implementation. President obama ratcheted up his campaign to sell the healthcare law today, in a speech in the east room of the white house. The Affordable Care act is doing what its designed to do deliver more choices, better benefits, a check on rising costs and higherquality health care. Brown the president highlighted a relatively obscure part of the law, which he himself now regularly refers to as obamacare, that requires insurers to spend 80 of premium dollars on medical care or send rebates to their customers. I bet if you took a poll, most folks wouldnt know when that check comes in that this was because of obamacare. laughter that they got this extra money in their pockets. But thats whats happening. Brown todays speech was part of a broader effort to sell the law. That comes amid continuing criticism from republicans and worry from some supporters about its implementation. One of the laws central components Health Insurance exchanges begin to open october 1. New Online Marketplaces will allow consumers to go online and compare private Health Care Insurance plans, just like youd compare over the internet the best deal on flatscreen tvs or cars or any other product that is important to your lives. And youre going to see competition in ways that we havent seen before. Brown the president chose not to address the decision earlier this month to delay the Insurance Employer mandate until 2015. Other major parts of the law such as an individual mandate and new subsidized insurance exchanges will still take effect as scheduled. But opponents have seized on the delay as a sign of greater problems with the law. Yesterday, the republicanled house voted to delay the individual mandate that requires americans to get coverage next year or pay a penalty. House Speaker John Boehner spoke yesterday. This is about basic fairness. To say that, well, were going to. Were going to relax this mandate for a year on american business, but were going to continue to stick it to individuals and families is strictly, and simply, unfair to the American People. All those in favor. Brown the house vote marked at least the 38th time republicans have tried to eliminate or scale back the Affordable Care act. Republican representative luke messer of indiana obamacare is not working. The American People know that. Now it seems that president obama knows that, too. The president s unilateral decision to violate the law and delay the employer mandate, postpone some of he laws worst damages for business, fundamental fairness dictates that individuals get the same reprieve. Brown yesterdays vote came on the same day new york state announced its insurance premiums on the individual market are expected to drop 50 . Today, the Obama Administration put out its own report on the expected cost of premiums once the new exchanges take effect. It concluded that ten states, plus the district of columbia, would be able to offer monthly premiums that will be 18 lower than initially projected by the congressional Budget Office. Those estimates were for a lower cost plan that would run about 320 a month for an individual. But other states have come up with very different and higher numbers. Last week, ohio issued its own estimate it reported the average individual market Health Insurance plan would jump 88 next year. The question of how much insurance will cost is a crucial one for the success of the law. We explore the issue further with Jonathan Gruber, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of technology. He worked with the administration on the Health Reform law and is a key architect of the massachusetts law. And avik roy, senior fellow at the manhattan institute. He served as mitt romneys health care adviser, during the 2012 president ial campaign. Welcome to both of you. Jonathan gruber, starting as a sort of general starting point is there a simple answer as to whether the Health Reform law will lower or raise premiums . Theres never a simple answer with something as complicated as health care but theres a threepart answer. For the first part is most americans who have private Health Insurance who get it from their large employers nothing changes. The second part of the answer is from the second largest groups, those who get insurance from small providers. They wont see the preesms jump 50 in the year because somebody gets sick. On average they will say rates stay the same, some will go up some will come down but basically stay the same. The third group is individuals. The effect of individuals will vary largely across states. It will depend on the individual market. What we will see on average the premiums in individual states will go up but that will be offset by the fact that the Affordable Care act includes tax credits to cover the cost of Health Insurance. After you factor in tax credits premiums will go down on average. Brown i want to ask avik roy. You are still going to see insurance rates go up because insurance rates go up every year. Something the Affordable Care act doesnt do that much to dent. In the individual market hes right that certain states will do okay because they are highly regulated already, they are regulated much like the Affordable Care act regulates the entire country. But in lightly regulated states such as california, where today an individual say 40 years old can buy an Insurance Plan that is relatively good, for 94 a year, there will be a certain slice of low income individuals who will benefit, but theres the majority will not even if you get a partial subsidy your rates will still go up and if youre not eligible for subsidy you get hit twice. Not only does your insurance rate goes up but you are funding the subsidies to other people. Brown jontd gruber, you were starting to talk about differences in other states. Look, the idea of insurance is that the healthy contribute more than they expect to get at the end of the year. The sick collect more than they contributed and over time we are both healthy and sick so it all evens out. The problem is you cant get insurance to work that way in the private market. Because if you just leave the private market alone what happens is Insurance Companies dont want the sick guys right . They just want the healthy guys. They seclude the sick from coverage and the healthy gets very skimpy coverage. The plan that avik mentioned is not good coverage. What happens states that are not regulated end up with insurance that the sick cant get it and healthy get very skimpy plans. The result will be the sick and healthy will pay same price. Some will pay more. I think its a minority of people. From my estimates once you factor in tax credits, individuals will pay more and twothirds will pay less. Brown avik row, you said 94 a month i think as opposed to a year . 94 a month, a 44yearold, single and childless. Brown let me ask you about the impact of tax credits that Jonathan Gruber was talking about. To what degree does it offset any rise of premiums . Yes two actuaries looked into this in the magazine, they estimated that if you are between 20 and 30 years of age, 80 of people even despite the impact of subsidies will see increases and for people who are 30 to 40 its about 30 to 40 of people will still see increases despite subsidies. The subsidies will have impacts for some people but other people will have substantial rises. Here is the thing. Jonathan has this framework, the deal with insurance, Healthy People pay more, sick people pay less. Thats another way to think of insurance, but as car insurance, i want to protect myself if i get into a collision or my car gets stolen but i dont want to subsidize, i dont want my rairtsz to go higher because drunk drivers are crashing their cars all the time. If insurance is a bad deal for me i have more of an incentive to drop out of the market, despite the factors in the law that try to dragoon people in. Brown Jonathan Gruber feel free to respond to that but i do want to clarify to both of you just so the audience understands, the population were talking about in all of this right . Do we agree on that of the size of the population and who is affected . Yes. I mean the population is first of all its those who buy individual insurance now whos really affected, that is currently about 7 of the u. S. Population. Second of all of the nonelderly population, second of all its the young healthyy group of the individuals that are not poor about a third of that group. Were talking about Something Like 2. 5 of people, may go up on the order of that. I would add something. Brown go ahead. Which if you look at the congressional Budget Offices estimates and you add up all the people that the Budget Office projects will be shopping for insurance on their own it adds up to about 77 Million People by 2016. So it is a substantial number of people. Not just those who buy insurance today on the individual market its the people who are uninsured who should be buying insurance on the market, because they think its a raw deal or for some other reason. Brown and jonathan things are starting to kick in and we are getting closer to fuller implementation. What are the key uncertainties here as we try to figure out whats going to happen . What are you looking for . Well i think theres really two big source of uncertainty. The biggest source of uncertainty is the issue of the medicaid expansion. State policy makers are making absolutely short sighted, really stupid decisions, leaving millions of americans without Health Insurance coverage and adding confusion in implementation because if i go to an exchange tomorrow or in january and my income is 99 of the poverty line, they say sorry youre out of luck. If im 100 of the poverty line i get great subsidies. I think thats a source of uncertainty. Second sense of uncertainty, understanding the benefits of the law, the misinformation passed out thats going to confuse people, unless people could understand whats in store for them. Brown and avik row, what uncertainty would you see . Whether or not a healthy and young people would sign up for the insurance under the aca exchanges. You heard the president give the speech not for, not like the new york Insurance Market today where insurance cost 800, 900 a month for people, its unaffordable for people and drop out of the market. Young and Healthy People will see this as a raw deal and i think correctly, and not sign up for the subsidy where they are spending a lot more for the insurance to subsidize people who dont benefit directly. Brown Jonathan Gruber just one more word on the young and Healthy People. Its critical that the young and healthy sign up. I think they will and i think many of them will get tax credits. Brown Jonathan Gruber and avik roy thank you very much. Woodruff you can watch all of president obamas remarks and speaker boehners on our Newshour Youtube channel. And still to come on the newshour contaminated School Lunches in india; a jail sentence for an Opposition Leader in russia; a debate over teaching in english or spanish and a Birthday Celebration for Nelson Mandela. But first, the other news of the day. Heres kwame holman. Holman detroit declared bankruptcy today, the largest American City ever to do so. The citys stateappointed emergency manager made the filing with a federal judge. It would let him liquidate assets in a bid to pay off creditors and city pensioners. Those parties have rejected a fiscal Restructuring Plan that would have paid them pennies on the dollar. A new, bipartisan has deal surfaced in the senate, on student loans. Its the latest attempt to rescind a doubling of Interest Rates on federally subsidized stafford loans. The compromise would tie rates to financial markets, as republicans wanted. For now, the rates for under graduate loans would fall back below 4 . Maine independent angus king praised the agreement today. People signing up for loans in the next month for college this year are going to pay about half of what they would have paid if the law had stayed as it was. We were able to come together, talk to each other, listen to each other, and find not only a compromise solution, but a good compromise solution. Holman the rates could rise over time. Undergraduate rates would be capped at 8. 25 something democrats demanded. The bipartisan deal is expected to reach the senate floor in the coming days. The house already has passed student loan legislation that also ties loan rates to the markets. The Senate Confirmed two more members of president obamas second term cabinet today. A partyline vote cleared thomas perez to be the new secretary of labor. Hes currently head of the justice departments civil rights division. Later, Gina Mccarthy won confirmation as administrator of the Environmental Protection agency. The votes followed this weeks agreement between democrats and republicans to end delays on nominees for Top Administration posts. In jordan, secretary of state john kerry heard the sharp criticism of angry Syrian Refugees who demanded stronger action against the syrian regime. Kerry sat down with six refugees living in the zaatari camp, where 115,000 syrians have taken shelter. They insisted the u. S. And the International Community establish a nofly zone and safe havens inside syria. The meeting lasted 40 minutes, and kerry said he promised to relay the complaints to washington. I think they are frustrated and angry at the world for not stepping in and helping. I think there are and i explained to them i dont think its as cut and dry and as simple as some of them look at it. But if i were in their shoes i would be looking for help from wherever i could find it. In washington today, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, army general martin dempsey, said hes laid out options for president obama on using u. S. Military power in syria. Republican senator john mccain pressed dempsey to say what he would do, but the general declined. The decision to use force is the decision of our elected officials. You know, i just ask the chairman just asked you if you would give your personal opinion to the committee if asked. You said yes. I m asking for your opinion. About the use of kinetic strikes . That issue is under deliberation inside of the our agencies of government, and it would be inappropriate for me to try to influence the decision with me rendering an opinion in public about what kind of force we should use. Holman afterward, mccain said dempsey must share his recommendations with the committee and hell block dempseys nomination for a second term as chairman of the joint chiefs, until he gets an answer. A military judge refused today to dismiss a charge of aiding the enemy, against Army Private First class bradley manning. Its the most serious of 21 charges in mannings court martial, for leaking of reams of classified documents to wikileaks. If hes found guilty on that count, manning could serve life in prison without parole. A Southern California