Right now. Announcer announcer decision 2016, the iowa caucus. This is nbc nightly news with lester holt reporting tonight from des moines. Good evening. Game on. For weeks the polls have spoken, and now its the people of iowas turn. The caucuses begin across this state just after the dinner hour here. The first votes to be cast on the road to the white house. At this hour the organizations the candidates have spent months, even years, building, are feverishly working to get their supporters to the caucus sites. This is the much talked about ground game now under way. Turnout is going to be key. But also tonight were watching a new potential contender, the weather. A big winter storm expected to begin hitting here later tonight. Will it be a factor, especially with a major poll over the weekend showing close races among the frontrunners on both sides. Lets set the table for a dramatic night ahead. Our team is in place covering the candidates, the voters and the things to watch. Trump campaign. Hi, katy. Reporter hi, lester. This is only the first contest. It is significant because it will show just how reliable the polling has been. Donald trump has defied all the expectations, and hes broken all the rules, but will it work . Donald trump is it trying to whip up a victory tonight. I want to win iowa. Its going to send such a great message that were not going to take it anymore. Were not going to take it. Reporter but the get out the vote effort, a potential weak spot for the renegade campaign. Trump with a slight lead is pushing hard with evangelicals, trying to peel off enough support from ted cruz, even bringing sarah palin back to iowa. Trump also showing the strength of his wallet, pumping nearly 11 million of his own cash into his campaign coffers. 230 days since donald trump descended a golden escalator and announced his bid for the white house with vitriol for mexican immigrants they are bringing drugs. They are bringing crime. Reporter and hes proposed a ban on muslims while attacking anyone and everyone who stood in his way, but will his fear and frustrationfueled candidacy of big promises pay off . Who pays for that wall . Mexico. Reporter how do you get mexico to pay for that wall . Only if im president. Reporter despite a lack of policy details trump has been consistently been atop the polls, the billionaire quickly becoming a messenger to the establishment, that the people are mad as hell and they are not going to take it. At the heart of trumps pitch himself, the dealmaker who can make America Great again. My whole life ive been greedy, greedy, greedy, grabbed all the money i could get, im so greedy, but now i want to be greedy for the united states. I want to grab all that money. Reporter right now polling in New Hampshire has trump up by 18 points which means if he wins here in iowa he could be unstoppable. Were going to have a tremendous victory. Reporter katy tur, nbc news, des moines. Thank you, thank you. Marco rubio may have started his day with blueberry pancakes but its ted cruz hoping for the sweetest end to his night. If we stand together united, we will win. And ive got to tell you this race right now, its neck and neck. Its all about turnout. Reporter cruz needs evangelicals to show up for him tonight. If they do, new polling shows that could put him in a dead heat with donald trump, even after facing fire for weeks about his canadian birthplace and attacked from all sides at last weeks debate, but cruzs campaign feels confident in what it describes as a sophisticated get out the vote effort. Thats got to feel good. Dont stop. Reporter marco rubios campaign publicly lowering expectations but privately signaling a second place finish isnt out of reach. I wonder if you do come in third place do you expect to cheer for third, that they should be happy . Ultimately for people what they want to see is your campaign is growing and growing real strength. Reporter some still deciding. My vote is still up for grabs, yes. I have not made a decision. My husband has decided for cruz but i have not. Iowa doesnt all pick my partys nominee but it certainly puts in motion everything that happens next. Reporter and next, New Hampshire. Some Establishment Republicans already there, like Chris Christie who left iowa this afternoon. What does that say about your campaign and your strategy moving forward . It means im not going to win here, right, and i have a chance to do very, very well in New Hampshire. Reporter in iowa it seems candidate will win. The potential for a photo finish triggering a lot of interest in this race. A Party Official here tells me state republican headquarters received more than 130 phone calls an hour today from people wanting to know where and how to get involved. More than they typically get on lester . Thanks. Things are even closer for the top democrats. Clinton and sanders neck and neck with the vermont senator trying to score what was deemed months ago and Hillary Clinton trying to avoid a repeat of a nightmare that played out for her here eight years ago. Weve got both sides covered starting with nbcs kristen welker. Kristen, what are you hearing from the Clinton Campaign tonight . Reporter lester, good evening. Clinton Campaign Officials tell me they are feeling confident tonight. Still, they are bracing for a close race. Memories of clintons defeat in 2008 are still very fresh, still after holding more than 100 events, her aides say shes determined to make history. Hillary clinton in the fight of her political life, hitting the ground one last time today after months of relentless campaigning. I hope youll stand up for me. I hope you will fight for me. Reporter today an army of volunteers making a final push registering firsttime caucusgoers on this college campus, a Group Clinton has struggled to win over but the key to winning iowa. Were just trying to get as many students to go out and express their views. To be this way. Clinton began the race last hi, everybody. Reporter hand now shes neck and neck with Bernie Sanders, her campaign sidetracked by the ongoing controversy over her Bernie Sanders reporter and by a surging sanders tapping into voters hunger for an outsider. Clinton even left iowa to fund raise in philadelphia with the threat of a long battle ahead and her opponent raking in big dollars. Her campaign haunted by what happened here eight years ago when another insurgent outsider, barack obama, turned a seemingly inevitable victory into defeat. This time her campaign is using obamas playbook. Nearly 9,000 volunteers, more than 1,600 precinct captains, one for each caucus location, and tonight with the help of an app using complex data and math to steal a delegate here and there from sanders. So the great thing about this app is it will give you suggestions on the best way to try and gain another delegate. Redemption in a race thats anyones to win. Kristen welker, nbc news, des moines. Bernie bernie reporter im casey hunt with the Bernie Sanders campaign where against all odds he has a chance to beat Hillary Clinton, spending the day pushing for one last charge from a Young Volunteer army. We will win tonight if the voter turnout is high. Reporter boarding the pus thats helped carry him from 14 to 42 in iowa polls. He said today he has no regrets. Did you do everything you could do to win . I think not doing ugly negative ads is the right thing to do, and you know what i think, i think its good politics. Reporter its an improbable rise for a 74yearold from brooklyn with unusual politics, from a quirky Campaign Announcement nine months ago. Were in this race to win. Reporter to thousands of people packing his rallies this summer, part of what supporters say is not just a campaign but a windblown volunteers canvassing iowa neighborhoods. Small 5 and 10 donations adding up to millions, and even the rock band vampire weekend. For you and me reporter singing along with his wife jane. I didnt expect the fervor of support which has been wonderful. Reporter but sanders may have missed an opportunity in the first debate. The American People are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails. Reporter changing his tune this weekend. You know, i think this is a serious issue. Reporter the independent senator now hoping his issues are enough to win in an upset the Democratic Party establishment never saw coming. Setting up here. They tell me that they know that the Democratic Party establishment is very against them and that even if they win in iowa and New Hampshire winning all of those donors, activists and others over is going to be another long and lester . All right, kasie, thank you. Lets bring in chuck todd and Andrea Mitchell here with us. Andrea, you were here eight years ago, that devastating loss for Hillary Clinton to barack obama. How does 2016 compare . Reporter well, you know, she described, lester, that as excruciating in her book, that night when she not only lost to barack obama who she at times considered an upstart freshman senator, she came in third behind john edwards. She was determined not to let that happen again, show this time shes drove out here by launching her campaign, going on a listening tower and talking to iowans and hiring a lot of the obama strategists who knew iowa a lot better than she did. That said, this could have happen. History could repeat itself. Students. She probably didnt pay enough attention there. She underestimated Bernie Sanders. This time he is, as you say, not even a democrat. Hes an independent, a democratic socialist. Politician, but he has really stunned them with the vigor of this campaign and with his fundraising ability, so she is now in a neck and neck fight, and if he were to win, she is life. Lester. And, chuck, let me bring you and cruz. What are you going to be watching for tonight that we should all be looking at . Reporter well, one thing is if past is prologue the candidate of the evangelicals, the more christian conservatives usually under polls and overperform, and so if ted cruz it wouldnt be a shock if ted cruz wins because a lot of times evangelicals dont show up in the polling. Rick santorum and Mike Huckabee ended overperforming their results, but lester, lets take a bigger step here and realize both Political Parties tonight could be staring into the abyss. Donald trump and Bernie Sanders, if they both squeak sweep, this political system and the two major party. Andrea brought up the fact that bernd isnt even a registered member of the Democratic Party and donald trump hasnt voted in the republican primacy since the 80s. Thats how frustrated members of both parties are and victories for sanders and trump here, this is an earthquake that i dont think weve quite comprehended yet. Lester. All right, chuck and andrea, thanks. Well be hearing from both of you tonight in our coverage. For all the importance placed here in iowa, its very difficult to understand what the process is inside the caucus room. Its much different than a primary, and there are different sets of rules for democrats and republicans. Nbc News National correspondent Peter Alexander explains it all for us. Reporter as the sun sets on iowa tonight from Downtown Des Moines to the sprawling farms across this state, iowans gather for the first in the nation votes. Here caucus day is more like caucus hour. Be there by 7 00 p. M. Or get left out. More than 1,600 precincts in all, churches, schools, even a the Republican Caucus is pretty simple. Listen to speeches from all sides and then write your candidatess name on a secret ballot. The winners announced and delegates divvied up but for the democrats its a different deal. A representative from each Campaign First makes their pitch to everyone in the room and then caucusgoers break into groups by candidate with an area for those still uncommitted. At most locations the candidate needs at least 15 in that room to reach what they call viability. If your candidate doesnt make the cut, things get messy with two choices, realign with another campaign or join the uncommitted and get rerecruited from there. Professor Rachel Caufield is an exabout pert on caucuses. People get up out of their chairs and they move around the room. Theres bargaining and interaction, family members maybe trying to persuade each other. Reporter this is likely where the heaviest jockeying will begin with the clinton and sanders campaigns in a dead heat. Whichever side can scoop up Martin Omalley supporters could gain a significant advantage. When only viable candidates with this complicated system and that 7 00 p. M. Cutoff explain why even the alltime high turnout eight years ago was still so low. Just 16 of iowans. That means only a few hundred thousand people in this state set the political table for the rest of america. Peter alexander, nbc news, des moines, iowa. Still ahead tonight, the excitement building here in iowa. We talked to voters shortly before they go into caucus as they prepare to cast the very well be back. Americans. Were living longer than ever. As we age, certain nutrients become especially important. From the makers of one a day fiftyplus. One a day proactive sixtyfive plus. 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You cant predict the market. But through good times and bad. At t. Rowe price. Weve helped our investors stay confident for over 75 years. Call us or your advisor. T. Rowe price. Welcome back to our headquarters for thenight, west end architectural salvage cafe in demoifnlt many of the people here right now will be caucusing tonight so lets take a moment and talk to a few of them. First of all, how many of you folks are tired of politicians and the media right now and are ready for this to be over . Now that im feeling the love, lets talk to renee, let me talk to you, renee hartman, a Small Business owner. Youve caucused before. Youre a democrat. Explain to me this process. What its like to go into a room with a bunch of people and declare your allegiance and almost horse trade. Well, its a fun process. Its very interactive. Its very engaging, and you are really standing there convincing undecideds that the candidate that youre there for is the best candidate for the job. Does it get testy at all . It can, but my experience is that it hasnt, but you have to be real tough to kind of stand ground and real express why the person that youre there for is the most experienced and can do the job. Let me turn across the table to dave nagle, 74, lived in iowa your whole life. Thats correct. Different in the republican side. You cast your vote but just give me your observation what have its been like here for the last several months and why this may be different. Well, its always been a meeting process that has a caucus rather than going and getting in a voting booth and drawing the curtain and all of that which makes it more personal, and and discussion and opportunities to visit with your neighbors, coworkers, et cetera, that come together. Very grass roots in its nature. And tabby, this is your first time. Mmhmm. Caucusing. Why now, why this year . Theres a lot at stake. A lot of issues that im hearing about that i care about this year. I think before i would say i dont i didnt care that much about politics and i was kind of this year im older. Im in my 40s and theres a lot of issues that are really concerning. Gotten pretty exciting. And finally sam hoyt, youre 21, a student. This is was there any doubt that you would caucus . Not really. I go to Drake University just down the road and its been a huge center for politics this year, and they have done a really great job getting students involved. A lot of passion. Have any of you seen any of the candidates, by the way . Been at any of the rallies in. Hard to escape them . They are everywhere. They are everywhere. Look. We appreciate you spending time with us tonight. Its a wonderful process to watch, and ill be watching the results. Great. Thank you. Were excited. Going to take a break. In a moment well have other news of the day including World Health Officials sounding the well be right back. Everyones lookin red carpet ready. My man, lemme guess who youre wearing. 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