So our question here today on quadriga is this crisis in france, how wounded is the grande nation . To discuss that question, im joined here in the studio by three seasoned observers and analysts. Let me introduce them to you. Beginning with pascal thibaut, who is with radio france internationale. He says the trenches of verdun have only now been filled in, but in the rest of france, the rifts are still huge. Each and every reform becomes a battle to end all battles. Also with us is malte lehming of berlins der tagesspiegel newspaper, who believes that frances economy is showing signs of improvement. Francois hollande must stay on course with his reforms and not give in to leftwing demands. And a warm welcome, too, to geraldine schwarz, a french tv journalist and documentary filmmaker who is based here in berlin. Geraldine says the unions are still powerful but fewer and fewer french people support their confrontational cause. They understand that france has to change. So geraldine, id like to begin with you. Its been a terrible 18 months the past year and a half for france. Charlie hebdo, state of emergency, economic woes, so on and so forth. Give me an idea of what impact that has had in france in emotional terms . Geraldine well, i think france is really having very difficult times in the last year, but most important, i think, is to focus on what these traumas could change in the country. And i think the trauma of the terrorist attacks brought the french people together, so there was a real solidarity movement, which i considered to be quite positive. The problem now is that with the strikes this solidarity has been shaken and i see france divided in two with one sisi still having a very romantic view of rotests and trade unions and the other half realizing that france has to change consider the challenges in a globalized world that france is facing now. And, of course, part of these french people who are willing of change are the unemployed people, who are more thahan 10 f the country and they are actually willing to change. So the paradox is that the people who are in the street and with the trade unions are those, most of them, who are actually having a job. Peter tell me more about the romantic view that you just talked about there of strikes and protests. Specific to france, it appears. Geraldine well, i think the trade unions are very linked with the history of liberation and resistance during the Second World War so this is where starts the romantic view of the trade unions. But if one looks gives a more precise look at the evolution in the 30 years is that the trade unions are less and less powerful because there are less and less members. Even in bastions in the fields like energy, where the c. G. T. , hich is leading the protests 14 of the as workers in this field were unionists and of the 30 last year, it was cut in two. So this gives an illustration and also, even if the polls say that almost half of the french are against this law, it doesnt mean they are actually supporting the trade unions. A very recent poll said that even from out of 10 french people are actually distrusting the head of peter these are very interesting facts. Lets talk about the backdrop to the divided france, the current backdrop is the buildup to the euro 2016 football tournament, pascal. France is hosting the tournament, obviously. 51 matches. Ive been reading that the tournament is set to bring 1. 2 or 1. 3 billion euros into the country. It was supposed to be a great sporting spectacle, a time of joy. Thats not how it feels at this point in time, i sense. Pascal yeah, thats true. It means we still have one week to go until the beginning of the competition, so there is still hope. But, of course, its supposed to be a p period of j joy. Its very important also for the overnment, for the major france, of course, abroad, but also for the yeah, to improve maybe the mood of the french population, which is nowadays not actually the best, and there are also maybe some economical problems linked to these strikes. If the strikes will go on after the beginning of the competition, as malte lehming has already said. There are some signs showing that the French Economy is improving and that is also one of the arguments of the overnment, saying that it will it would be an error to interrupt this mood of evolution. It is s the new mantra of francs hollande to say more or less every day, french is going better. All the french people are not absolutely convinced but there are some statistics, some showing that there are some improvementsts, but the e situa generally spspeaking is remains quite bad and the mood of the people is especially very, very bad. Peter not everybody in france is convinced. Alte perhaps is. Malte im convinced if we pronounce it as slowly improving. Not improving but slowly improving. We have, i think, 0. 5 . Some better mood in investments and things like that. Very, very slowly. Hard times for the Unemployment Rate, especially the young unemployment. 25 or 24 and more than 10 of the Unemployment Rate in all. That means that the expenditure for social services, unemployment support and everything like this is very high. Stays high and almost the the debt rate is almost 100 . I think its the 15th out of 18 years when its above the criteria of National Debt that is allowed and these are bad signs for itself. If you see signs for improving that might even spell the opposition saying if we improve, why do we need all the reforms . This could be a backdrop in the argument of president hollande. What he see is a battle of t two very, very weak parties. President hollande this week, i think its 14 or 15 of support of his policy and the c. G. T. Is struggling for survival in between the trade unions. And because the second largest trade union already supported the reformisist agendada of president hollande. So we have two very, very convinced sides but very weak sides and this explains the fierceness of the fight. Peter were talking a about the fight. Youre nodding, geraldine . Geraldine actually, i think we should always consider the situation today in comparison to the situation, for example, in 1995 when there was one of the hugest strikes ever in france and there were more than two Million People in the streets. So i dont think that the confrontation i think the confrontation today is useful in order maybe to have the trade unions reform. The trade unions have to reform. Its not only about peter all this confrontation on the streets of france. Pascal was comparing it to verdun. Saying its the battle of all battles. France is a battlefield and youre telliling me that its a kind of political theater and nothing more. Geraldine no, there are between 150,000 and 300,000 people were in the street last thursday in all france. Im just comparing the figures, you know. And this is also something that we have to say, there are no mass demonstrations in the street. Pascal yes, but there is one big difference compared with the huge strikes of 1995 against the bill of the former Prime Minister and also strikes in the last years also during the reign of nicolas sarkozy. It is the first strike with this dimension n against leftwing government. The last one was in the 1980s, so it is different, of course. It is a big challenge, maybe an historical one, i dont know, for a leftwing government in france and it is also i think its more or less a culture fight between the c. G. T. , former communist union, more or less, and the reformist wants the second union, the cfdt and also a president who now more or less wants to make france more or less like little german, more social democrat. Peter well talk about that in just a second. We havent yet quite identified whether were talking about sort of an abstract field of conflict or a fierce battlefield. But certainly, we know what the conflict is all about at this point in time. Its focusing very much on working conditions. Lets just get some numbers and some facts here. Its one of the worlds most farreaching welfare states. French workers are allowed to retire in their early 60s. They only have to work 35 hours a week and the minimum wage is almost 10 euros an hour. But the french still love to go on strike, more than any other nation in europe. Do they have reason to . Unemployment has dropped slightly but its still a whopping 24 among the countrys youth. Small and midsized businesses have it tough. Profits just cant keep up with wages, Social Security payments and a heavy tax burden. The french president hopes the changes will c create nenew job giving employers more flexibility to fire and negotiate working hours and bonuses directly with workers. Currently they have to adhere to sectoral agreements. But is reform even possible in france . Peter thats the question, is reform even possible in france, geraldine . Geraldine yes, well, i think that it is possible for half of the people and its not possible for the other half. France is really divided, which is a new figure, because i think a couple of years ago the figure would maybe more be at 70 and 30 . Peter fill me in on who are these two halves that youre talking about. Geraldine i think in one of the halves, its the young people who are frightened of unemployment. They travel a lolot, they are me open. Some of them had experiences in ritain and germany so they are also used maybe to other conditions, so theyre more open to it. And one i mean, part of the quite hatch i would say is oldfashioned people whose fear of the future i also understand because the future is unknown for everybody in europe. So i think its more the fear of change, which is also what were talking about, but i dont think we can say that france is incapable of reforms. I think this is the test. This is a very important test right now and if hollande fails, i dont care if hes not elected next year but what is important is that this will be, again, a discouragement to make further reforms. So its in this on this point, it is a very, very important conflict right now. Peter pascal, youre looking very thoughtful. Pascal yeah, i think its possible to, of course, to have reforms but the difficulty is that we dont have a society like in germany where there is a lot of dialogue, where you have a lot of Strong Organization between the people and the overnment. And you usually have a new bill, like the new one, sometimes there is dialogue before with the different organizations, with the employers, with the trade unions, but there is a new bill which is adopted and afterwards there are big strikes. So that is what the government tried to do at the beginning after the election of Francois Hollande, to organize dialogue between trade unions and employers of organizations to find a solution, and the solutions which were adopted became afterwardrds a bill. So it would be a better solution, i think and of course ththe difficulty nowadays is the strong unpopularity of the government and the fact that hollande now starts new reforms which probably would have been better to introduce them at t t bebeginning after his election t he had a program and he was elected on a quiet, leftwing program. These reforms four years ago would have been impossible. We saw in 1995 what happened with ciloc when a month after he introduced reforms which were completely different from his program. Malte i will add something to the dialogue, which i totally gree with you. Adding something means adding honesty. Its not just dialogue, we need honesty. I have the german glasses on so i remember quite well the hancellor schroder when he introduced in 2010 and he from the beginning said it will be painful. We need to support people but we have to demand something from the people. So i dont see that president hollande right now is being seen as honest as Gerhard Schroder was when he introduced the agenda. Hes saying g well all be bett off but it will be painful. What it means if we look not in abstract but concrete terms, what kind of painfulness we will see . This is lacking totally in france, i think. Geraldine yes, but schroder had the chance to have a total other mentality in the trade unions in germany and therefore malte right. Geraldine i totally understand what hes saying. The trade unions in france represent 7 of the work force. 18 in germany and secondly, they are not the Supervisory Boards of the companies. This is a very big difference. So they dont face the problems of the companies so they dont understand their challenges. Malte i know. They have a power which they dont really deserve. Ts in the written into the laws in france that you have political strikes. But thats what is done right now. W. Its not that you geraldine yes. Malte you look at the energy reforms. These are clearly strikes. Geraldine maybe the companies should invite themem to participate at the Supervisory Board to understand the problem to have company. And also, the trade unions in france are much more defending the wages, and in germany, they defend the work. The employment. This is so they are able to make sacrifice in order to save employment. They look much more further in advance than the french trade unions. Pascal we have only spoken about the trade unions but i mean, the capacity to have a dialogue is also a necessity for the Employers Organization and when the chairmen of the Employers Organization in france compares the c. G. T. To trade unions with terrorists, im not sure it will improve the dialogue. Geraldine yeah. Peter ok, lets move on a little bit with some pictures. Were talking about the role of the trade unions in all this and the clash with Francois Hollande is very much turning out to be a clash between the hardline trade union leader phlippe martinez, the head of the c. G. T. , the powerful trade union, and Francois Hollande. Lets have a little look at that before we continue the discussion. The protests in france are being organized by one confrontational figure in particular, philippe martinez. The head of the union, the c. G. T. , has declared the government an enemy of the people and insists it has to give in. The workers have their say and the government needs to listen. The ball is in the governmnment court. If they tell us were going to start all over again, it will all stop straightaway. I guarantee it. The battle for workers rights in france has turned into a public war of words between two figures francocois hollae is fighting for his political survival and reelection in 2017. I want to make this law they consider to o be a law of progress, a law for all. And the law of all. But can the french president push through his reforms or will the protests drive him to his knees . Whos going to win this battle between mr. Hollande and mr. Philippe martinez . Pascal i think the best is that there are no losers because its best for the government not to withdraw its text, otherwise hollande would lose the rest of credibilitity he has and his credibility is very little and ts important that the c. G. T. , also, we have already spoken about it because its a need for the future of the trade unions and it is important also that they dont lose their leader. So maybe the solution would be not to withdraw the article two of the bill, which is the Central Content but maybe the government could accept some compromises about some odorous text of the bill. So every the government and the trade union and the c. G. T. Could at the end yeah, show like winners or like half losers, i dont know. Peter were talking about winners and allowsers. Maybe it id like to losers. Id like to ask this question. Who are the winners and the losers in the grande nation . Malte could be. Eople in principle support remplets. 70 or against the specific reforms, progress. We always have that contradictory. Peter peoplple wantnt change y they dont want the reforms. [laughter] malte its overload by a general sense we havent seen since tight when government were supporting falling banks and things like thisis. The general sense of elite is doing what they want and they collect all the money they want but we have to pay for this on the agenda of a reformist policy. So this is overloaded by this general model but its very, very difficult. Sometimes its always a nobrainer to say that in politics you have to make compromise, nobody has to l los maybe somebody has to lose. Maybe the c. G. T. Has to lose. The heart of the bill which president hollande says is the cornerstone of my policy has to survive. There could be compromises for like 5 or 10 but not for half. Otherwise it wont be a compromise but a lost battle for president hollande. Peter you were talking about the 50 that understand but unwillingness to change. Shes offered these people a ing n of a peoples work paradise. Could that be the future foror france . Could she be the future of rance . Geraldine one of her biggest weakness is economy. And most of the anytime economic questions, shehe doesnt have a answers. She doesnt have any economic answers. She wants france to go out of the European Union and in is not an Economic Program but i think she said she can of course, if there are two losers, the winner is her, you know . Peter but i would say shes fueling the ideology of theres this corrupt, immoral, elite structure that we have to fight. Geraldine this has been going on for a long time. This idea of the elite being corrupt and far away from the people. This is not really new. I think im not even sure she can really win anything out of the strike. I dont know, i havent seen anything peter pascal, an astonishing figure i read while reading up for the program. Rchers at ed bower Edinburgh University believe that 56 of voters would like to hold their own vote on the possible brexit. Does that sound possible to you . Pascal yeah, the brexit is something that france is talking about. I think without france it doesnt make any sense about the European Union coming to an end. Yes thats something they as gerald dean has saidd is one of the proposals of marie. Of course, economical proposals are absolutely nonsense. Her economic proposals are absolutely nonsense but i think shes probably nowadays, the grande nation is the party which attracts most of the workers in france and also, to see how the ntext of the relations are formed between workers or between workers from the c. G. F. T. And m members of f the gr nation because they want to do something for the workers to convince them there is a solution, which is wrong. Peter pascal, thank you very much for that. Malte too, and geraldine. I hope weve answered some of the questions about th