270 to win. More than that accompanied by big names in cleveland, beyonce rocking a pants suit and jayz. President obama, bill clinton and Bernie Sanders. Trump has been much more on his own with prominent main street republicans keeping their distance. Joining me now, Trump CampaignSenior Adviser a. J. Delgado. I think you guys feel fairly confident. You have the candidate going all over the place, minnesota, places that i think, you know, you wouldnt expect. Do you guys have internal data . Absolutely. I think just based on trade deals alone, when you have working class americans, whether its in a blue state who have been affected by the trade deals, the 5 Million Manufacturing jobs lost as a result of nafta in addition tos had antiwar message, antilegal immigration message his antiwar message. Wait a minute. Can you tell me how bomb the s out of them is a can you tell how playing chicken with russia doesnt lead to world war iss. I dont think you can deny this. I think thats a very strong he realize you have to say that. Thats a quote of him. Were going to bomb the s out of him. You can say he has different perspectives but thats very hard to clarify as we agree we dont need to set up a no fly zone the way Hillary Clinton which will lead a. J. , i dont think thats true. First of all, clearly not everyone agrees on it. But all im saying with everything Hillary Clinton, you just characterized his message as an antiwar message. Bomb the s out of them is not an antiwar message. Thats all im saying. Bomb the s out of them is not you take it more literally. I mean with a fervent interventionist approach which Hillary Clinton has and you have admit that you have severe concerns. I think she has intervention instincts. I think theres also other problems with giving a bunch of people nuclear weapons. Let me ask you this. If you have a story about Melania Trump working illegally, while she was here she was clearly paid to do work without a work visa, thats a violation of Immigration Law. No. I dont care. Why should she not be punished for that and millions of americans should be . Well, youre assuming that report is correct. Its not. She was here legally, worked legally. Shes always observed all of the laws. Are the documents fake . Im not sure what documents youre referring to. Has in that article, i think we have to go back many years to see if the documents are correct. The documents about her getting paid not while on a work visa to work, which is a violation of Immigration Law, which is something, lets be clear, millions of people do it every year. Chris, lets be clear, the only issue were going to talk about Melania Trump is these two phenomenal speeches given by this woman. America has fallen love with this woman. She did not break the law. Do you want to talk about Hillary Clinton breaking the law . Do you want to talk about Hillary Clintons bribes shes accepted from the clinton foundation. Lets talk about russia and uranium deal. Thats the breaking the law that concerns americans. I understand thats a pivot. I get that. Thats the talking point. Its not a pivot. It actually matters. Its a pivot to relevance that actually matters. Youre representing a candidate who has said he would go door to door and kick millions of people out. Because they broke the law . When he said there was a Deportation Force . A Deportation Force already exists, its called i. C. E. Obama uses i. C. E. Is obama going door to door . Is that what you are saying . My question for you is, for people who have broken the law in the way similar to Melania Trump, why should those people be deported . She did not break the law. The a. P. Has got it wrong. She did not break the law. This is ridiculous that youre claiming that she broke the law as though it matters three days out. A. J. , this is a candidate who for 15 months has said immigrants coming here illegally are breaking the law and have to pay the consequences. That candidate, the candidate you are supporting has said this for month. Yes. And this is a candidate Hillary Clinton for months has said she didnt lie to the fbi. It turns out she did send classified information. How did get 650,000 emails end up on Anthony Weiner laptop. Is she criminal or stupid . Shes either corrupt or incredibly inept . I dont know which is worse. Do you honestly doesnt matter if Melania Trump broke the Immigration Law . Did she . No. Would it matter or not. Just answer that question. Clinton is under fbi investigation. To the Bernie Sanders supporters watching, i understand completely why youre staying home, and i salute you, because i would not vote for that corrupt criminal if my life depended on it. So i understand, the Bernie Sanders supporters, they are opting out. Good for them. Obviously you do not. They are opting out, chris. Good for them. Would it matter if melania broke the Immigration Law . Would it matter to you if Hillary Clinton accepted bribes . It looks like she did. Its my show and i get to answer the question. And im here as a guest. I get to ask them too. Love you, chris. Joining me now, senior fellow at the pro Clinton Group media matters for america. What do you think, eric . I think it matters. Ill answer the question. Yes, it matters. I dont think it matters. No, i dont think it doesnt matter. I dont think it matters. My point is that it doesnt matter. It doesnt matter and it doesnt matter i honestly think those kinds of gray area infractions that happen all the time are not things that along a spectrum of infraction that are almost a crime without a victim, yeah, a lot of people have done that for all sorts of reasons and a lot of the people who have done that have made america great. Hypocrisy matters, is my point. You cant run around the country saying we got to get rid of these people and it turns out that your wife happens to fall under that umbrella. Thats my point. Where are you right now on the state of the race . When you look at what has happened in the post sort of comey era, this idea that their closing argument, which we didnt even get to because we were talking about that stuff, this idea of change, about knocking off the globalist elite . Take my mike off. Where do you see the Campaign Post comey . In terms of status, i think its very similar to post pneumonia. There was this big fridaysaturday blowup when hillary had a pneumonia. Bout. The polls went south for five days and it was a major interruption. Weve seen that same thing. Some early polls, after this comey shocker, people like my barber told me the fbi had reopened this investigation, when that false information got out, i think it interrupted the race. I think were back to where the race was now. I think she clearly has the momentum, as you talked about the early voting states in nevada and florida. 40 million votes are already cast and shes ahead in those. So i think the race is almost where it was precomey shocker. There also seems to be that part of the strategy right now in talking about its very interesting to hear, theres clearly a few strategies here. One is, as you can tell from a. J. , disaffected bernie folks, antiwar, trade message, part of that is in the midwest. But there also seems to be some sort of notion of, look, were going to make it terrible. Im sorry. I honestly think its a very and not necessarily a stupid tactic. Right. They had basically all but said trump himself said that the constitutional crisis. Right. And basically the argument is, were going to make you a brutal slog, if you elect this woman. So maybe you dont do it. Right. Again, precomey, we saw reports that they were going to try to suppress the vote, the africanamerican vote. We saw the sort of suppress the Bernie Sanders vote but now with the comey, and this fake impeachment, we have fox news manufacturing these stories that shes going to be indicted, that they had to walk back. If they can get them to say, youre right, take it, we dont want it, we dont want the president she or the congress, youre going to make it awful, thats their strategy. I cant imagine democrats and a lot of americans are going to sit there and say, huh, im going to sit at home and give it to him. I dont think anyone has ever bullied the presidency away from another party or scared them away from voting. And im just saying look at those lines today. People are waiting two, three, four hours. They dont seem to be afraid that were going to head into a morass. Well deal with that when the republican radicals get back. Its interesting, clinton during impeachment when bill clinton was quite popular and i think Hillary Clinton is probably shall did her finest moment in this whole campaign was probably her benghazi testimony. Maybe thats in some per verse political way this is actually good. Look at barack obama. Hes at his highest Approval Rating since 2009, 2010. And they spent eight years trying to block everything he wanted to do. Eric, thanks for being with me tonight. Appreciate it. We have a lot more. Im going to be here for two hours. Settle in, grab a cocktail. Do what you are doing. Its saturday night. As we look towards tuesday night, the early voting numbers that dont bode well for donald trump. Plus, could republicans lose control of the senate or will they retain it . Its hanging by a finger nail. Well take a look at the latest polling. And Hillary Clintons lastminute push to get out to vote. Does it achieve more than a admittedly epic photo op . All that and more ahead. Simulation initiated. [beeping] take on any galaxy with a car that could stop for you. Simulation complete. The new nissan rogue. Rogue one a star wars story. In theaters december 16th. When mexico sends its people, they are not sending the best. We have to keep the families together. They have to go. What if they have no place to go . Well work with them. They have to go. A lot of hispanics. Latinos they like to be called in that area. You know that, right . Hispanics and latinos. Sit down. Go ahead. I have the right to ask a question. No, you havent been called. Go back to univision. They are bringing drugs, they are bringing crime, they are rapists. We are building a wall. Hes mexican. Were building a wall between here and mexico. The answer is, he is giving us very unfair rulings. We have some bad hombres here and we are going to get them out. Who is going to pay for the wall . Mexico whos going to pay for the wall . Mexico youve ripped out that mexican thing again. And some, i assume, are good people. The groups donald trump has insulted and threatened during the course of the campaign, mexicanamericans were the most consistent of his targets. Lucky for trump, they have typically voted at lower rates than other demographic groups. 2012, 48 latinos turned out to vote, 64 whites and 60 67 of africanamerican voters. This year, however, there are signs that that may be changing. In a number of key battleground states, latino turnaround is up. As of november 1st, latinos made up 13. 77 of early voting in florida, a mustwin state for trump. Thats up 9. 89 four years ago. Its possible they pull from the same pool of people. Who usually vote on election day. In other words, they are voting early instead of adding to the electorate. Early suggestions suggest thats not the case. On thursday alone, 82. 5 of hispanic early votes were considered lowpropensity voters. Thats literally nuts, in his words. Those are people who may have voted in the last president ial elections, who may have been excluded from recent polls of likely florida voters. Joining me now, cofounder of the research and polling firm and professor at ucla. Senior Political Writer and analyst for 538, let me start with you. So two states where weve got both lots of early votes, probably more than half the voting population will vote before election day. And big latino populations. Thats nevada and florida. It seems like were seeing similar trends in both of those states when you compare what the numbers say in early votes versus a model or polling would predict about the composition of the electorate. Spell it out for us. Absolutely. Were seeing far greater early voting numbers than most of the mainstream models are predicting latinos, in particular, in florida and also in nevada are overperforming theres also the data polling from dan smith at the university of florida put out that 30 of the latinos were either new registrants or no voting history. These are people voting at high rates, very high rates compared to what we saw in 2012 and they are not seeing this swell that we are seeing on the ground in both of those competitive, very critical as you said for trump battleground states. The latino vote is very, very strong right now. So one of the things, harry, with early voting, theres lots of data and lots of ways you can screw the data up. Sure. We know partisan affiliation, we know some demographic information but what we dont know, the campaigns know, the Clinton Campaign, the propensity. You want to them to vote early as opposed to to moving a person who is definitely going to vote on election day is moving it up two weeks. Exactly. A vote on election day is worth the same amount as a vote cast early. There seems to be a lot of lowpropensity voters voting early. Heres the question for Hillary Clinton. Is it merely that were getting more latinos into the electorate while africanamericans are voting at lower rates . If thats the case, thats not a good scenario for her. It will be interesting to see as we move forward in the election. Steve scale in florida had sort of raised alarm bells and it looks like the percentage of the electorate thats black has come up a bit in early voting. One thing thats fascinating. Hes live tweeting the numbers in nevada and hes at one location which is a Mexican Grocery store. Cardenas . Yes. Thats the scene right there. This is nuts, these people are they are going to, you know, if youre in line, its going to stay open, they are going to bank another thousand votes. Hes sort of in realtime watching what is happening and latino decisions pointed out in a poll in 2012, the final was 2. 8. In reality, it was 6. 7. Do you think its the case that public polling is not capturing latinos effectively . It could. Harry reid, go back to 2010. All the polls had harry reid was toast. He was toast. And then he won easily over sharon engle. We have a trend line going back through history where we know most voters vote early in that state, and we know that party affiliati affiliation, which tends to hold through election day. There are a percentage of people who voted and if that holds to election day, its difficult for donald trump to win that state. So, matt, what is your sense from the early voting data and the polling and then stuff in arizona and i think the arizona story is fascinating. If you look at arizona, i said this the other day, georgia looks more competitive than arizona does and yet no one is going to georgia and a lot of people have been going to arizona and i know the Clinton Campaign has arizona on their target list. They are working that state in a way that they are not working georgia. What do you think the story is there . Arizona, you know, dont forget about sheriff joe. Theres a very hot reelection in Maricopa County bringing out a lot of latinos. You wouldnt believe the number the people going door to door, not just in a National Election but a local county sheriff election. I think thats going to be a huge upset. That downticket race may have reverse coat tails and bring out more voters to vote joe arpaio out of office. I think arizona is absolutely in play. Were playing very hard there. It continues to be ad buys and on the ground and youre going to see a really large latino vote in arizona. One of the things that is a doubleedge sword here, people talk about black turnout and i think people fail to appreciate that africanamericans turn out more than anyone. Right. I think Jewish Americans may have the highest turnout when you go through every subgroup but africanamericans turn out high, particularly in the south, in terms of education and income, they turn out in very high rates. This issue about latino votes from a tactical perspective, a lot of them are in states that arent competitive, so they dont give you the same electoral bang for the buck. They are not turning out at the same rates. But the flip side of that is if you have latinos voting what africanamericans do, that would be a massive change to the structure. It would be a huge change. Democrats are expected to do better there in large part because latinos are finally motivated to vote in that state. Arizona is a key example of that. At this point, joe arpaio is favored to lose reelection and thats a perfect example where you could see that upticket voting. Very interesting time there. Thanks for joining us. If you could stick around after the break. Well look at whether democrats could gain control of the senate, but first my kids are here tonight, ryan and david, its time to play the animal videos. And if youre a regular viewer of the show, its time to play the animal videos. Were opening spanish. First up, butterflies, relaxing as were coming into the home stretch of 2016. Next up, tigers. Heres some playing together at the bronx zoo not too far from here. Very cute, both of them. Well be right back. All right. Hillary clinton is on the stage in philadelphia, the katy perry concert Hillary Clinton rally. Lets take a listen. If you have some time, and you want to really be involved in winning this election, sign up to help. Because when your kids and grandkids ask you what you did in 2016, when it was all on the line, i want you to b