Chris Hayes discusses the days top news. We expect those also break democratic enough to erase a 1754 lead . No, but could it be enough to cut into that 754 enough that baldersons advantage which is 0. 9 right now over oconnor if that ends up at 0. 5 or less, state law says guess what, we got to have a a recount here. You could potentially, i wouldnt say its the likeliest scenario but you could see that happening. There are also 5048 what they are calling uncounted absentee ballots, that were mailed out to voters in some cases weeks ago and they havent been mailed back. A lot of them probably arent going to be mailed back. Some of them a small number probably military ballots maybe still making their way. Some of them probably a small number are voters you had to have them postmarked yesterday. If they sent it out yesterday, it still comes in, that vote probably still going to be
district, the areas that currentlied to trump, the turnout wasnt as high but the vote, the margins that balderson ran up here were trumplike. Did you not have much democratic support out here. Oconnor didnt make inroads there. Maybe he wanted to. The key was Delaware County. This is the Wealthiest County in ohio. Suburban, it is more almost urban when you get down close to columbus, more clackly suburban. Trump got 55 . Not great for republicans. The question was would balderson do worse . He did 54. He had to be a little lower than that i think. There needed to be more erosion in the Delaware County for him to lose. Doesnt look like quite enough erosion for oconnor to pull this off tonight. Too close to call. Still the chance of a recount. No matter how many days they drag this out now, these two get to do it all over again in november when theyre one of 434
other rays around the country. That is the lay of the land there. Garrett haake it on the ground at oconnor headquarters wes terville, ohio. It looks quiet behind you. What was it like to be out there tonight . Im the last man standing. Theyve turned off the lights. Everybody has gone home. A few hours ago, this was a pretty bumping party. Democrats really felt like they had a shot here tonight. It the last 48 hours of this race, everything seemed to be breaking their way. The republican candidate stumbled into a gaffe about Franklin CountyThe Night Before the election started. Their candidate had been all over the place in national and local media. They felt like they were fighting out the last few days of this campaign on democratic issue turf talking about health care, they were talking about protecting it Social Security. Thats one of the reasons that democrats nationally by the way like what they see here today. They like the issue set that was fought over in this campaign. Theyre also going to like the enthusiasm a lot. You talked about that big Franklin County number, 65 of the vote. You saw that reflected around this district over the last couple days. Core democratic voters were fired up to vote in this race, fired up to volunteer out knocking on doors out in neighborhoods, out making phone calls. I talked to a lot of voter whos said they have never been as engaged in a Congressional Election as they were in this one. Some folks said they were volunteering for the first time. I spent most of my time today with the democrats. I have to say from the Republican Point of view here, if there is a Silver Lining to this narrow what looks like it might be a victory, its that to some degree their formula worked. You talked about running up the score in some of those rural areas. In a lot of places around the country that look like this, that is what republican republicans have to do, they
have to juice turnout in their as a areas with donald trump or adds with nancy pelosi, and hold on and hope this democratic Enthusiasm Wave doesnt knock them off their perches. I do think we saw a little bit of a blueprint how it will work. The resources and money and time wont be the same when theres 435 house races happening instead of one on a random tuesdayner i august. A superb election in the dead of the summer. My kind of night here i guess you could say. Garrett, great reporting. Thank you for joining us outside what was the oconnor headquarters outside columbus. Former republican congressman david jolly from you florida, John Pod Or Ritz and kimberly atkins, columnist for the boston herald. David, let me start with you. Im looking at the story from this district. Im seeing three different stories looking at we showed there Franklin County. Clinton won it and tonight you saw the energy was there for democrats. The Support Level for oconnor was higher than it was for clinton by will ten points. Turnout level was higher. Im thinking that story is trouble for republican members of congress, barbara cop stock right outside washington, d. C. From the suburban areas highly educated, trouble for them when you see that. A lot of my former colleagues in congress will have hard conversations with Party Leadership in the next month or two. The party may begin to pull resources from districts. They might be too vulnerable incumbents to hold toes seats. Were also seeing this trend away from republicans almost at large. These are districts that trump won, states trump won. Were seeing a contrast between the trump effect in a General Election which is the special election in ohio is essentially
a General Election. Also the influence of trump in primaries like were seeing in kansas, move to washington and youre seeing the negative wins that trump brings to those rays. Au in all, a good night for democrats. Well know in ten days balderson probably wins. The trend is getting away from republicans. Theyre in a lot of trouble when these races are fought in competitive districts in november. The trend we should say. Trump by 11 points in this district tonight, one point if this holds. If i have this number right, so democrats need 23 seats to take control of the house. There were 24 districts. There are 24 Hillary Clinton districts. Up to 25 with that pennsylvania. There are 25 districts republicans are sitting in that hillary won. Okay. And then theres the question whether or not there are other districts like this one where trump wins by 11 where it gets close. If you look at this you say to yourself, the vast majority of those seats that hillary won those guys are in deep deep deep. Youre saying a wave. If i mean, think about this number. So this guy oconnor who is like a nobody out polls hillary in a hillary area. Right . By ten points. So we could be seeing that district after district after district after district. In other words, the democrats could already have pretty close to having the house in their pocket. I think they do. I dont think theres a scenario tonight where we would say republicans can hold the house. Steve, i have republican colleagues of mine friends who have been in the field. Theyre incumbents in the field
for a year. Over the last 90 days, seeing the precipitous drop in support for republicans. Thats why you see republicans spend money early. Even in majority republican districts, you now have a lot of vulnerable members. And i have to say when you sit down, you can do examiners sometime or make the map yourself and start flipping districts and you start out with the number 23 and say democrats got to pick off 23 republicans. Maybe republicans are fortified here. It goes fast. Kimberly, look, republicans will say bottom line, we won. It wasnt pretty. Again, its too close to call but certainly youd rather be balderson with the numbers than oconnor. Republicans will say if this holds, we won this thing. Thats all that counts. Thats the story of the special elections besides pennsylvania a couple months ago, there were a lot of close calls but we won. Is there anything besides the bottom line you think they can hang their hats on at all . Thats a tough thing to say. We saw the president calling this a win. It sort reminds me of a regular season game when you know the
playoffs are coming and you know that the teams will make a lot of adjustments leading into that. I think youre going to see that here, some of the things you were pointing out like not really growing the republican the suburbanen support for republicans having that slip a little bit. Its just, it may not be enough to overcome those to for even in those areas where you have that really inelastic support for trump in the rural areas if they really are not winning the suburbs and not winning the more urban areas. If the democrats continue to mobilize, they mobilized in the middle of august, think whats going to happen in november. I think its going to be already really bad news for republicans when it comes to playoff time. Okay. So republican political consultant made the point that there is oner in lining for republicans which is to say that Balderson Defeat could have led to a stampede for the exits by not only by voters but by donors by people who have to pony up at
the end, gin up enthusiasm. The idea if this had gone the other way, it probably wont, if this didnt look the way it did now, it would have been mass. The psychology of actually losing versus. The other way to look at it is like the first act of The Walking Dead and the zombies come and dont get in then but then in three months, the zombies get into your cave. It may just be staving off the inevitable. Im just former republican congressman, you ran. Having to deal with donald trump a little bit. If you were running right now as a republican just trying to survive, in terms of whats the strategy you try to employ . You cant survive a 5050 district. One of the takeaways from baldersons race is interesting. He was not fully in with donald trump. He occasionally said the right things. I think he wanted to bid the wall. This was an entrenched establishment republican candidate. This was not a make America Great again candidate. Trump would say he should have been more trump. Im a product of special elections. My first race was a special election. To johns point, one of the things the Party Apparatus has to do is convince the high dollar institutional donors they can win these races. I saw it in my election and conversely, i was running during the implementation of obamacare and it provides an opportunity in my case for democrats to message test. At the time it was unpopular. The rollout was a disaster. Republicans were trying to find their footing on obamacare and frankly they couldnt. Republicans rights now are doing exactly the same thing trying to find their footing with donald trump. Where is it . They havent figured it out but they can go back to their donor base and say we at least know how to win. Thats about all they can say tonight. Kimberly, maybe this is sort of a Bigger Picture thing about the state of politics, the
american divide. Looking at that map, the one other thing jumps out at me, Democratic Energy in and immediately around columbus, the energy there the support for the democratic candidate there, you go to the rural parts of the district and these are places that obama won one of the keens in the rural part of this district and it went to trump by 30 points in 2016. There was interesting suspense there tonight would there be erosion for republicans in the Trump Country part of this district and there wasnt. This is a turnout might not have been great. Balderson was getting trump level support does make me wonder if thats getting to a Bigger Picture thing where republicans are casting their lot with that america and that sort of the future in the past for democrats. I think it depend how each of these districts look. If you have districts with more Rural Support like that, they will benefit from that inelastic support donald trump has had that weve seen in polling since inauguration day. A lot of these districts are
drawn in ways theres a little bit of suburbia other things that come into play some that get closer into urban areas. This might be one way that some of the gerrymandering thats taken place to skim off urban areas to dilute that vote may come back to bite republicans in some ways if we see democrats turning out in those places. So its really going to be interesting to see how that plays out moving forward. Kimberly atkins, thanks for joining us. Coming up, other results and analysis from a bunch that we had ohio, we will kansas, michigan. Other results, other races to tell you about to break down all the numbers and the latest in todays other big political story, the Paul Manafort trial. Ken dilanian and henry lipman will join us. Stay with us. To fight cancer. And never lose sight of the patients were fighting for. Our Cancer Treatment specialists share the same vision. Experts from all over the world, working closely together to deliver truly personalized cancer care. Specialists focused on treating cancer. Using advanced technologies. And more precise treatments than before. Working as hard as we can doing all that we can for everyone who walks through our doors. This is Cancer Treatment centers of america. And these are the specialists were proud to call our own. Treating cancer isnt one thing we do. Its the only thing we do. Expert medicine works here. Learn more at cancercenter. Com Cancer Treatment centers of america. Appointments available now. We have to elect troy. Well, President Donald Trump at a rally on saturday for troy balderson, republican candidate in that special election in ohios 12th District tonight. The race as weve been telling you, we are currently saying too close to call. Balderson leading Democrat Danny Oconnor by less than a percentage point. Voters will not learn the final vote till all the absentee and provisional votes are counted. Maybe the reason we have such suspense, maybe theres a recount as mandate bid state law. The president has already declared victory. Earlier tonight he tweeted when i decided to go to ohio for Troy Badder Son, he was down 6436. That was not good. After my speech on saturday night, there was a big turn for the better. He wins a great victory during a tough type of the year for voting. He will win big in november followed by another Tweeting Congratulations to Troy Badder Son on a great win in ohio. Balderson is not the only candidate trumps endorsement appears to be helping. He tweeted his support for chris kovach in kansass republican primary for governor. Heres the result, kobach leading by 952 votes, jeff colyer, thats the incumbent republican governor, he had been the lieutenant governor, Sam Brownback left colyer takes over sort of an unelected as governor at least, heres the key though to keep in mind. The outstanding vote in kansas is almost all in johnson county. We talk about those more upscale suburbs, college changed all that stuff. We talked about them in ohio right outside kansas city. Colyer leading by 13 points. Certainly on paper you look and say maybe colyer despite being behind but a very close race. Joining me now Jason Johnson,
from the root. Com and msbc contributor. John podder ritz and jason. The president will try to find a way to declare victory with any of these. Hes doing it in ohio tonight. Maybe the Republican Party will be happy with that one. In can is if kobach were to win this thing, that is something the republican Establishment Doesnt Want to see. The president is still the biggest loudest voice for the Republican Party. He can claim victories tonight and he has proven he can be successful in moving people in primaries. Apparently trumpism only works for donald trump. People who push that kind of attitude, that kind of behavior, kobach with all the controversies in his background and the corruption and Everything Else like that, being a trumpist works well in a republican primary. It may not be the best thing for
you in a jen election. This is really important to understand sort of mathematically as a political scientist. The vast majority of special elections are in gerrymandered districts. Its generally not a situation where in a special election you can beat the incumbent party. Democrats havent won very many federal elections. Theyve been winning at the state level. When you can break down a margin from 10 to 16 points to Single Digits knowing there will be a rematch in two months, every single republican has to be concerned heading into the fall and donald trump cant visit all the districts he needs to visit in order to stave off a blue wave. Its interesting. We talk about the trump effect. The obvious trump effect is the fact we had a competitive race in the 12th Congressional District a Democrat Hadnt Won since 1980. In terms of the result, the president going in on saturday making noise in this one, how do you look at the results in a way the trump effect on this one . The way, trump is causing democratic enthusiasm. Right . This election is ohio election is kind of a joke like its happening in august. They have to run again in november with this recount stuff. September we may have an answer. Who knows when the winner will be sworn in. Hell be for six weeks and run again, right . So the whole thing was a proxy. Whether or not Garrett Haake said they were talking