New york tiles first reported today a leaked draft from the centers for Disease Control that suggest 3,000 deaths per day by the beginning of june. That is nearly twice the daily death rate were currently experiencing and forecast 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month up from 25,000 cases a day currently. Now, that sounds very high and we should note here modelling the future course of the virus has been notoriously difficult. You never really know what to make of anything that comes out of the Trump Administration. Today the white house distanced itself from that document saying this is not a white house document nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task force or gone inter agency vetting. This is not done by the task force or data the task force analyzed and the numbers are unfinished, projections shown to the cdc as a work in progress. While the exact numbers and charts in the cdc document may differ from the final results, they show accurately how covid19 cases could spiral out of control. The main point this cdc draft communicates is what those of us who closely follow the data also see. The new york, new jersey, connecticut outbreaks, the worst in the country have accounted for a huge share of deaths and cases. Those states have peaked and are now on the decline. When you take those states out of the national picture, you can see National Cases in other places are growing, and they are growing in texas and tennessee and iowa and kansas and many other states that are reopening. In fact, the editor and publisher of the website Josh Marshall has been breaking out the graphs of u. S. Cases. You can see in this chart, the orange line represents new york, new jersey and connecticut and you can see the virus has already peaked and is declining, right . Its trending down. The yellow line is the rest of the country, not including those three states. That line is trending up. So the point is that the virus is continuing to spread outside of the first major epicenter and the sheer carnage of it remains shocking. Right now we are still staring down the barrel of 1800 or 1600 or 1700 death as day and this document from the cdc is consemiplaconsem contemplating it being worse. What is the trump strategy for that . The only response for strategy is centered around the president s reelection, something thats clear from the beginning of the outbreak. The post reporting that the virus wouldnt be that bad combined with grim calamity and provided trump justification to pivot to where he preferred to be rather than managing a Catastrophic Health crisis. So trump and his cronies and his soninlaw who has an Important Role here for some reason pushed to open it all up. They attempted to blame china for their policy failures while acting precisely like the Chinese Government did at the beginning of the outbreak. The fth president refusing to believe the worst of the worst while the virus was spiraling out of control. Trump removed to replace his hhs watch dog a woman that highlighted crucial hospital supply shortages and testing delays. God rid of h got rid of her because she told the truth in government response and here is where we are on this 3407b pandemic. The virus is not surprised. Cases are growing outside the original epicenter, it remains a threat. Its killing thousands of americans. It will kill tens of thousands more. At the current death rate were seeing a new 9 11 every two days and maybe one every single day in june if the worst course materializes. And because of that, the great economic reopening and awakening cannot happen in any sense. What we are headed towards are states that are not locked down enough to suppress the virus but are locked down enough to make sure that we get a new great depression. Here is dispatch from georgia, right, the one thats opening up. Reporters visited a few atlanta area l mas thmalls that opened. At lenox a hand full of cars were in the parking lot. The mall of georgia, most shops that were open were devoid of customers. Thats where we ended up. Because the president says the country is opening up, doesnt mean well have a Huge National economic boom because the Trump Administration hasnt dealt with the problem, which is the virus, which is what weve been saying for months. And so because they havent done that, they havent done enough to jump start the economy and people are rightly frustrated with staying at home. My god. Wuhan, china was locked down for ten weeks in the longest lockdown just about anywhere. Were starting week eight right now. You cant lock people down forever. Wherever they are. Whether italy, wuhan, china, california. So you either get your act together, marshall state resources and figure out a plan to suppress the virus and get people back out of their homes or you just say that a lot of people are going to die and uh. And shockingly that appears to be what President Trump has chosen to do the latter. Joining me now for more on what we need to do to open, the director of the Harvard UniversityGlobal Health institute and as harsh as that last part might sound, doctor, what do you think of that as the sort of what we have ended up wit with . Good evening, chris. Thanks for having me on. Its baffling. There is not some magic that we have to sort out about what we do here, right . We have to get testing and trisitri tracing and isolation in place. We have to keep things shut down until the number of cases are dropping consistently over a 14day period. These are not my ideas. This is the president s own opening up america again plan. On principle, he had it right and hes chosen to abandon it less than two weeks before putting out the plan. Its pretty stunning to me. That point is a really important one. The president s own cdc, their own guidelines are now being violated at mass by these states at the urging and cheering of the president and again, his soninlaw that plays an Important Role for reasons yet determined and what do you think about the idea . The thing that really worried me a lot of things worry me but when you look at a place like texas or a place like mississippi where the cases are going up day after day, deaths are going up, the cdc says you need 14 days of declining cases, what its going to do to the outbreaks in those places if they start opening up as cases are going up. Yeah, so this is not a mystery. There is simple biology and simple math here, right . The simple biology and mat are the number of cases will start rising faster. The more you open up, the faster the increases. At some point, the hospitals will start getting overwhelmed, nurses and doctors will start getting really sick, and the Health Care System is going to start collapsing, and the idea and weve talked about this before, chris. The idea people will go out to restaurants and bars and visit disneyworld in that context is a fantasy. And so like i dont understand what the president is doing, but hes certainly not helping the economy and the good lord knows hes not helping save lives and keep the American People healthy throughout this process. You know, part of the logic here from the beginning is this decentralized approach i think that largely is driven by the president not wanting to sort of escape blame or responsibility for things but the jersey city mayor Steve Phillip had a great take on this as someone who has a small city hes trying to figure out what to do with, without federal mobilization, you just have bad choices as a local leader. He says we dont live in a perfect world. Were realistic about options. We have three bad choices. One, restore normalcy to protect the longterm health of the city, pretend people will stay inside indefinitely, three, rely on donald trump for clarity. If you dont have the testing and tracing and dont have federal mobilization in place, everyone is now left with basically a set of bad options. Yeah, and so we are going to muddle our way through this. Thats what is going to happen the next couple months well muddle, it will beeconomy. A lot of people will die. Im hopeful the summer will help us out with weather and temperature and what states are realizing is that they got to come up with their plan for the fall, the fed the asthe feds not going to show up and help. Lets build our own plan and that is going to be how we fight this pandemic 50 states at a time. Its a lot less effective than if we had federal leadership but thats where we are. You made a point about hospitalizations and one thing thats interesting to me when looking at the modelling, a lot of hospitalizations have been below what models predicted, even as fatality have been what a lot of models predicted. The virus is quite, quite fatal and quite dangerous in damaging and in new york city particularly, in new york we saw the Hospital System in a kind of wuhan or lombardy overwhelmed situation but there does seem to be a gap between what the sort of worst feared hospitalization rates and hospital overwhelmed and what has presented even as the fatalities have presented as bad if not worse than what peel thought. Where do you think we are in terms of our understanding of that . Yeah, so i think first of all, there is still a lot were learning about the disease but what we saw in new york and i think what were seeing now in dallas where the hospital beds are starting to fill up, in other places, as well, is that this is a pretty serious disease. So its possible that in some cities at some moments it will under perform in terms of what we were worried about, but i dont think that i can look out to the next three or six months and think the Health Care System will get through this just fine, especially if we start seeing large numbers of new cases developing as the economies open up. I do expect to see real stress on the Health Care System in many places across the country. Finally, i guess what the question of where is doing this right . I mean, weve pointed to south korea before. We pointed to singapore that has went into a second lockdown. Today italy has started to relax some of the most stringent lockdowns. Is there a model, germany, a place thats gone through a bad outbreak. South korea was able to avoid that. A model thats gone through a bad outbreak and doing this in the right way . Yeah, so, south korea did have a bad outbreak in the beginning but jumped on it. When i think about the best model for the u. S. Its probably germany. They had to shutdown. Theyve had modest social distancing. Theyve got good testing infrastructure in place. People love pointing to new zealand but its a small place. Its 5 Million People. Germany is a big complex country, 80 million folks. It a good model for what we could be and should be doing. Always great to talk to you even under these circumstances. Thank you for making time tonight. Thanks, chris. Joining me for more on the federal response is congresswoman Sheila Jackson lee part of texas whose state partially reopened even though they continue to see an increase in cases and congresswoman, lets start with your home state of texas before we sort of move to national politics. Are you concerned with the pace of both what the governor has laid out for reopening and also for the fact that cases are still growing in your state . Good evening, chris. Thank you for having me. My opening shot at all this is that weve been told that were in a war, and you dont put up the white flag before you have finished the journey and won the war. I think that has been really the methodology of the united states. Weve come together. Weve unified. We did that after 9 11. It was a war on terror and we came together and reunited and didnt stop until we came to a victory point, and so my concern, of course, is that were not at that point. Were not at that point. Were 50 states. Were not at that point with some states and the day that the order was issued was the day that we had the largest number of cases in texas. Right now in my own community combined with the city and the county, there are about 7,000 cases and over 100 deaths. Were not where we need to be and this kind of approach is not effective. Infections are still occurring. People are still sick. When i say that, sick enough to be in hospitals, and testing is not where it needs to be. The way you stop this in terms of our current knowledge is massive testing, testing in vulnerable communities, recognizing that latinos and after condition americans a a condition African Americans are most vulnerable. Were not there. We put up the white flag and i also believe that most americans will take lives over the economy. The white house has essentially, they released guidelines states are violating urging and cheering from the president himself, the Congress Passed kind of an interim bill with aid for hospitals, as well as more money for the payroll protection program. What do you see as your role in the House Democratic caucus in governing the country right now as the president particularly has essentially thrown up his hands and said go do your thing, well see what happens . The country is looking for chief comforter in place. Chief leader in place. A Problem Solver and thats what the Democratic Caucus has been. We have been the conscience of this congress as it relates to covid19. Every response needed to save peoples lives and their economic condition has been put forward by democrats from the ppe to the loans to the massive testing, 25 million to the continued support for hospitals to the Congressional Black Caucus talking about Contact Tracing and data collection. We could not get a sum of data to know totally how many African Americans died, latinos and other americans died to know where the hot spots are or what we should do to assist in bringing down those numbers. So the Democratic Caucus in the moneys that weve ex pended, we have given a lifeline to the disbursement. We try to step in in education, health care, in the economy aspect or the economic aspect of families. Child care. Weve tried to step in and be a comforter and been successful telling people theyre not alone and tried to battle on this war game and tried to win it. Were trying to win. Were not trying to leave americans emptyhanded and fighting this by themselves, and thats what were fighting against when we fight republicans in congress who dont want to pass legislation now that will help out states in terms of providing for revenue loss. Thats a big issue. What do they want . Firefighters in that work or teachers not to work . Were fighting this because were the chief comforters in place. All right. Congresswoman Sheila Jackson lee. Democrat from the great state of texas. Thank you for making time this evening. Thank you, congresswoman. Thank you for having me. Coming up, can Small Businesses survive this moment . Their loss could do to the landscape of the American Economy after this. To the landscape of the American Economy after isth some work cant stop. Because our communities need you. Which is why were working to keep you working. And ready to dig in. To help you keep your properties and towns maintained. Your farm running. And construction moving. 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There are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. Get a 50 prepaid card when you switch. Its the most reliable wireless network. And it could save you hundreds. Xfinity mobile. All right. So remember, the idea behind fighting the virus by shelters in place and shutting down a huge portion of the economy, it was what we had left as an available alternative and that we had to do it despite the destruction and the government would be here to keep business afloat until we came out on the other side was the theory. Its not playing out that way. Millions of Small Businesses for millions of them, the system is failing. In the atlantic today, the bridge to the post pandemic world is collapsing. Quote, the great Small Business die off is here and it will change the landscape of american commerce with Slower Growth and less invasion in the future. Im joined by annie lowry, staff writer who focuses on economic policy. Lets start, annie, on where things stand right now in terms of Small Businesses in america. What is not working . Actually happ what actually happened in this moment . So depending on what kind of Small Business we are talking about, they are largely shut down. So we are showing we have data showing that Something Like 30, 40 in some cases 50 of Small Businesses h