Trump trailing his challenger, former Vice President joe biden, by nearly eight points. Earlier today, axios reported that the president will claim victory tuesday night if he appears to be ahead. Some states like pennsylvania may well show early leads for the president based on the sameday vote. That would be for mailin ballots where democrats are expected to have an advantage in pennsylvania. Are counted. Both candidates responded to that report. That was a false report. Well look at what happens. I think its a terrible thing when ballots can be collected after an election. My response is the president is not going to steal this election. Today both campaigns were in full swing, the candidates and their running mates barnstorming battlegrounds. Hoping to sway whatever undecided voters remain in the race. Former Vice President joe biden was back on the road in philadelphia. Tomorrow biden, Kamala Harris and their spouses are going to fan out across all four corners of the keystone state, hitting a dozen different locations. The president just finished speaking in rome, georgia. Later tonight he is going to hold his fifth rally in florida, that state could be key to his reelection. A mustwin state for him. New polls out today tell two different tales of what could happen in florida on Election Night. Lets start with a look at each candidates path to 270 electoral votes. Lets fire this thing up. Were going to be using it a lot in the next couple days. The road to 270, you see the battlegrounds here. If biden starts with the States Hillary clinton won in 2016, theres a couple there that the Trump Campaign has been talking about trying to pick off, but biden continues to lead in the polls. If biden starts in the clinton states, thats where youre getting that 232 from. Then you see the states that donald trump carried in 2016 and where donald trump to some degree or another is in trouble right now. I think the first thing that jumps out at you on this map is we just talked about this in the open, some states like pennsylvania may take a while to get all their votes counted. Other states may be a lot quicker. Joe biden starts out with an edge in the Electoral College, leading in polls, starts out with trump playing defense in the Electoral College. There are going to be opportunities early tuesday for joe biden to deliver some very serious blows to trump in the Electoral College, chief among them the state of florida. Its mustwin for the president because its 29 electoral votes. He carried it in 2016. It gets very hard when you look at this map that donald trump gets to 270 votes without taking florida. If biden were to get florida, it would push him right away to 261. He wouldnt be over 270. Hed be on the cusp. He would be close to just one state away, one more flip away from hitting 270. Right away, florida mustwin state for the president. If biden could get that we expect in those early hours of Election Night to get a lot of the vote in from florida. That would be a potentially devastating blow to the president right off the bat. Outside of florida, again, North Carolina, georgia, maybe ohio, a little bit later in the night texas, all states where the president is playing defense, all states where we expect a substantial number of votes to be reported out tuesday night. Each one of these, think of it essentially for the president. Its an elimination contest. He has got to run the table in these states to stay in the Electoral College. Thats the early hours potentially on tuesday night. Also later that night we expect to get a lot of the vote from arizona as well. Again the president is playing defense. If trump is able to carry all of those states to stay in contention for 270, the action would shift to pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin, those traditionally blue states that trump flipped by the skin of his teeth in 2016. Mailin ballots could take a while in pennsylvania, maybe some time to get a result in michigan and wisconsin. Well talk to the secretary of state in michigan shortly. The president would need to survive all these states we just mentioned and pick off at least one here. Thats where it could take a while. That is an early look at this. Again, theres all sorts of different permutations here. Well get to a bunch of them this hour and next couple of days. This weekend, as we mentioned, both campaigns blitzing all of these key battlegrounds. Nbc reporters are spread out across the country. Nbc political reporter ali vitale is in philadelphia following the Biden Campaign. Nbc senior White House Reporter petty pooes is following the president. You are at a live rally, the president really focusing in on florida. Whats the message hes bringing out there and whats his campaign saying about how they look at polls showing him eight, nine, ten points behind . Reporter its no accident that one of his last rallies is taking place here in miamidade county. About 60 of the population identifies as hispanic. Traditionally a democratic stronghold. But for months the Trump Campaign has been talking about how they see they are picking up latino support, particularly among people with ties to venezuela and cuba because of this strong antisocialist message that the trump has had really for several years now. This is one of their most consistent messages. Their internal numbers indicate that message is starting to pay off. While maybe hes not going to win latino voters, hes going to be able to scoop some up here. He needs that to offset the big losses among other groups, particularly seniors in this state. Trump Campaign Says they feel confident about florida, think theyre closing the gap there. As you outlined, steve, it is really a mustwin state. The path is so narrow if they cant win florida. In a way they have to be confident about here. Another factor as we see this lastminute push, about 9 Million People have already voted in florida. That is getting really close to the total ballots cast in 2016. One of the speakers here asked the crowd how many had already voted and nearly everyone cheered and raised their hand. How much any of this is going to have an impact, well have to see on those final numbers, but certainly a priority for the president. Ali vitali, priority for the Biden Campaign pennsylvania. One of the ones that got away from the democrats in 2016. With devastating electoral consequences for them. Whats the Biden Campaign trying to do to avoid a repeat of those misses pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan this time around . Reporter spend as much time there as possible and put as many organizing feet on the ground as they possible can in these final days. You look at somewhere like pennsylvania. It is the battleground state that joe biden has spent the most time in during this general election. The message that he brings here, as he does everywhere, is covid centric. Even when hes not directly talking about the virus, hes talking about the virus in terms of economic recovery, in terms of bringing back jobs. Listen to the way he talked about donald trump and the coronavirus. The truth is to beat the virus weve first got to beat donald trump. Hes a virus. Reporter look, you talk about the states that they need to win. Pennsylvania is a place that it factors in, obviously, to the biden calculus. But think of how important it is in the Trump Campaigns calculus. They need to really preserve most if not all of the states they won in 2016. So while the Biden Campaign sees several different ways they can put states together to get to 270, one of the ways they can do that is by cutting donald trump off at the pass in pennsylvania. We do know this is one of those states that the Biden Campaign has been saying they expect it to be close. At the same time they try to organize here campaigning in this what would be considered one of the more traditional battlegrounds. Than we expected biden and his running mate to be campaigning in. Thats what theyre doing again tomorrow. Its part of a twoday blitz through the keystone state. Joe biden and Kamala Harris effectively splitting the state up, joe biden taking the western half, Kamala Harris taking the eastern part of the state and trying to drive up turnout across all of those cities pittsburgh and philadelphia. As well as the suburbs. Theyre also campaigning in states they might call the expand states, the state that is the Biden Campaign sees as opportunities they could flip from 2016. States like arizona, georgia, texas, are states democrats have been looking at for quite some time that theyre wondering if now in 2020 its ripe for democrats in a president ial election year. Campaign says this weekend in arizona, North Carolina and pennsylvania they exceeded their goals in door knocks and phone calls. Thats them saying yeah, the candidates are out but theyre also still going that grassroots get out the vote turnout. Traditional way of making sure people they need to get to the polls are actually getting to the polls. Alley vitali, and shannon pettypiece, thanks to both of you for being with us. Lets take a look here at a state that many are surprise ed to see in the tossup category late in the campaign, texas. Its one democrats have had their eyes on for a long time. Over 9 million texans have already voted in this president ial race. That is more than the total number of votes that were cast in that state in 2016. The latest polls showing a tight race, one that could go either way. 38 electoral votes up for grabs there. Losing this state would obviously be a major devastating blow for the Trump Campaign. One thing to explain why this became so competitive relative to 2016. Trump won this state by nine in 2016. It was a ninepoint margin for trump in 2016. That was already underwhelming by republican standards. In texas four years earlier, mitt romney was the nominee, he carried texas by almost 16 points. In the midterm election, ted cruz retaining seat against beto orourke, republicans have lost 13 of that 16point margin that mitt romney had. The story of why that is in texas, its the metro areas. Dallasfort worth metroplex, austin area, san antonio areas. What you see here, you have seen Dramatic Movement. In some of these counties, its 20, almost 30point movement from republicans to democrats at this time. Youre talking about places with a lot of college degrees, white collar professionals. Some younger voters. Seeing Dramatic Movement to the democrats and population growth. Democrats getting more bang for their buck in these areas as well. It is why democrats have been so optimistic about texas for so long. You look at what happened there in that senate race in 2018. They got very, very close. They think maybe this could be the election that puts them over the top. From an Electoral College standpoint, you cant see trump surviving that if it were to happen. Nbc news has confirmed that the fbi is investigating the alleged harassment of a Biden Campaign bus by motorists displaying trump flags. In texas on friday. Trump weighed in saying in my opinion these patriots did nothing wrong. The Texas Supreme Court denied a republicanled petition to invalidate about 127 thousand drivethrough votes that were cast in Harris County. Thats houston. A federal court is expected to rule on the same issue tomorrow, just a day before the election. Lets go to garrett haake, who is in houston. In Harris County were talking about right now. Garrett, obviously this ruling hugely significant when you just look at the number of ballots at stake here. Talk about the implications there and the battle for texas. What are you seeing on the ground . Reporter in terms of voter access in texas, this whole election has been one step forward, two steps back. The governor added six days of early inperson voting in texas. Which is enormously popular. That same republican governor limiting the number of ballot dropoff points to just one per county. Now in closing days of the election, youve got an outside group of republicans led by notorious gadfly here, political activist suing to throw out these drivethrough ballots that were cast. That was kind of a brainchild of the Harris County clerk here, whos been trying to come up with additional ways to improve access to voting here in the county. The Texas Supreme Court threw out this lawsuit, but there is going to be this federal lawsuit tonight. I asked the clerk today if hes comfortable that feds may decide differently on this case. Heres what he told me. If the federal Court Follows the law, then well win no questions asked. The law is 100 on our side and these votes should count. There are over 100,000 voters here, democrats, republicans and everything in between and their votes should count. Reporter and steve, 100,000 votes is big deal here. You were talking about beto ted cruz race, that was decided all told by about 250,000 votes total. Just to give the sense of scale here in texas, Harris County, weve got about 1. 4 million votes already cast, in the bank in the period. Thats more than those who voted in the entire state of nevada in 2016, with more vote as than them in one county. Those are the numbers driving all of this talk about texas is a battleground state. Theyre so off the charts, theyve effectively broken the modeling for texas turnout. Texas one of those states where we do expect a substantial number of votes to be reported out on tuesday. Well have a lot to talk about. Garrett haake on the ground, thanks. Appreciate that. Coming up, were going to take a look at the big picture with some final preelection poll numbers. Those poll numbers are coming fast and furious now. But counting the votes in each state, obviously what will count in the end. Were going to talk to michigans secretary of state. About what exactly thats one of those we mentioned where it might be a little complicated, a little lengthy. What are we going to know from michigan and when . Well ask the chief Elections Official right after this. Official right after this. Its gentle on her skin, and dermatologist recommended. New tide pods plus downy free. Safe for sensitive skin with eczema and psoriasis. Maria had to do everything for me. She had these awful blisters on her back. I dont want shingles when im your age. Actually, if youre 50 or older, youre at increased risk thats life, nothing you can do. Uh, shingles can be prevented. Shingles can be whaaaat . Prevented. You can get vaccinated. Where . At your pharmacy, your doctors hold on dont want to go through that 50 years or older . Get vaccinated for shingles. Now. Straining, and bloating, again and again. No way. More exercise. More water. And more fiber is the only way to manage it. Is it . Maybe you think. Its occasional constipation. Maybe its not. It could be a chronic medical condition called ibsc, and time to say yesss to linzess. Linzess works differently than laxatives. It helps relieve belly pain and lets you have more frequent and complete bowel movements. Do not give linzess to children less than six and it should not be given to children six to less than 18, it may harm them. Do not take linzess if you have a bowel blockage. Get immediate help if you develop unusual or severe stomach pain, especially with bloody or black stools. The most common side effect is diarrhea, sometimes severe. If its severe, stop taking linzess and call your doctor right away. Other side effects include gas, stomach area pain, and swelling. Change your thinking to ibsc. If your constipation and belly pain keeps coming back, tell your doctor and say yesss to linzess. Welcome back. Lets head to michigan. Thats where both candidates have campaigned heavily this weekend. The president will be there again tomorrow. Michigans 16 electoral votes one of the reasons donald trump was able to win in 2016. It was a razorthin margin for him in michigan. Epic mra poll for the Detroit Free Press shows joe biden with sevenpoint lead over donald trump right now. 2016, of those three states trump flipped that had been democratic since the 80s, this was the narrowest. Barely 10,000 votes for donald trump over Hillary Clinton. What are we going to be watching on tuesday night . What were the ingredients that went into 2016 and we want to see if theyre still there for trump . There are a couple things here. This is wayne county, this is detroit, this is dearborn. This is core democratic territory. How strong is the turnout going to be . Can democrats get a bigger turnout in wayne county than they got in 2016 . Black voters in particular a concern for democrats. They dont think they got the turnout that they need in 2016 from black voters. Can they get that this time . This is one place were going to be looking. Another place, just north of detroit, theres two big counties right outside detroit going in Different Directions politically. Oakland county, suburbs of detroit becoming a core democratic area. Can democrats drive up the number here in Oakland County . Clinton won by eight, can they get to double digits here . And then how about mccomb county . They used to say home of the reagan democrats back in the early 80s. Trump brought back that tradition in 2016. He won this county, he flipped it. Barack obama had won it. Bluecollar, white workingclass voters here. Trump flipped this county. Can he hold onto those gains or is he going to lose them . Look in the western part of the state around grand rapids, traditionally more republican turf. Mod