Prospect of jeb bush staring him down, and mitts own family. He didnt want to spend the next year and a half slogging through hell. Now comes a new poll of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers showing that jeb bush is going practically nowhere out there with that crowd. This crowd that has picked people like Mike Huckabee and most recently Rick Santorum to be their champion. What gives . If the money people seem bent on jeb, where is the party going to go to find a leader that can unite and excited enough to give Hillary Clinton a fight . John is a republican strategist, and robert gibbs is the former White House Press secretary, and an msnbc contributor. As i mentioned, a new poll from the Des Moines Register just out and Bloomberg Politics shows jeb bush has ground to look up with the conservative grassroots. Look at this poll. Shows the lead of the pack in iowa is the new kid on the block, wisconsin Governor Scott walker, followed by rand paul and Mike Huckabee, no surprise there. Jeb bush is fifth with 9 . The guy who everybody calls the frontrunner, fifth out there. He also lags behind on favorability compared to other potential candidates. Scott walker has a net favorable. That means favorable over unfavorable of 48 , meaning 60 of voters have a favorable view on him. Only 12 have a favorable view of, well, the others, anyway, unfavorable view, rather. Rand paul, Mike Huckabee, rick perry and others all have high net favorables among likely iowa caucusgoers, they all look good out there. Jeb bush, his net favorability is low one digit, three. So for Chris Christie its even worse. Negative. Hes the only big negative out there. 18. John, why dont they like christie out in iowa among your party . First of all, you do have to take some of this in perspective. Everyone was talking about Michele Bachmann when she won the ames straw poll only to finish last in the iowa caucuses. With that said, iowa is a conservative state. Chris christie is seen as relatively moderate, jeb bush is relatively moderate. The real problem for this in this poll is not where they are in the mix. Its that they have high unfavorables. They have to change a lot of minds which is difficult to do especially because theyre not the type thats all of a sudden going to move toward the right. I think they have some problems. Issues like common core, immigration. Their positions are just not going to play with mainstream republicans in iowa. What im stunned with is how much knowledge they have of these guys. I mean, these are regular voters, guys. Theyre not people watching television all night long. They dont real all the papers all day long. They seem to know all the candidates. They have a personal opinion of all the candidates already two years out. Theyve had to judge that Chris Christie is not their guy. But they really like this new guy, scott walker whos the governor of wisconsin. And they know all about him, enough to say hes a 48 net plus. Thats a hell of a lot of information, robert . Well, i think, one, iowans take their role exceedingly seriously. Yeah. A lot of these none of these guys are going to seal the deal with any caucusgoer until they literally have the chance to meet them five or six times. Secondly, caucusgoers are the highest interest primary voter, so if youre going to participate in a primary, thats one thing. If youre going to participate in a caucus which is a different level of commitment, its that probably top 10 or 20 of people that would normally participate in a primary. Heavy information voters. People that have a lot of information and are following these guys well before they ever come to iowa to play president. It is impressive that people know this much. Anyway, this weekend scott walker sounded very confident. Ive always thought he was a sleeper but i wasnt that sure. Lets watch him. 99 chance youll run . Oh, i dont know that id take the odds. I just would tell you one thing, after three elections for governor in four years in a state that hasnt gone republican since 1984 for president , i wouldnt bet against any on anything. He also took a jab at both Hillary Clinton and by implication jeb bush. Lets watch. People want new, fresh leadership with big, bold ideas, and the courage to act on it. If were going to take on a name from the past, which is likely to be former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, i think for the party we need a name from the future. Well, there you go. They got rid of mitt, now this is an age war. This is logans run here, robert. Get rid of the old guys. The great thing about that bank shot was the explicit criticism of the exsecretary of state and the implicit criticism of the jeb. Jeb bush. So i think its way premature to call anybody the frontrunner. I think you have tiers of candidates and i think clearly in the top tier of candidates in iowa, scott walker, probably jeb bush, and to some degree a social conservative in that poll probably Mike Huckabee. Yeah. And truth is, what puts jeb bush in the top tier isnt his standing in iowa as much as its his standing writ large and his ability to raise probably the 100 million its going to take to win this primary. Have you been out talking to enough people to know whether people are just in a mood, like, most people who vote want to pick the next president , but early going they want to send a message, too. Do you get a sense this might be one of the year the democrats had it a long time ago with mcgovern. It felt good for the people on the left. They felt great being for mcgovern. He was antiwar, an intellectual, a war hero but also a professor. He was perfect for the democratic left. Do you think your party might be on to a year thats just a little bit wackier than most years . Theyre just going to pick somebody like goldwater or mcgovern and say we dont give a damn about the close next coming next november . Were going to say what we really feel. Maybe one of these other guys, maybe ted cruz, maybe ben carson, maybe rand paul. Is it that wild a year . Can you tell if thats out there . Heres the problem. The Republican Party isnt a single entity anymore. Its not homogeneous anymore. Its broken into libertarians, tea party, social conservatives, establishment. Working class. You know, antiterrorism. Theyre all different types of republicans so its splintered. The biggest difference youre going to see this time in is some sense weve become the democrats. We dont have i agree. Its the other way, too. Its working the other side. We get a lot of people out there, but i will say this, i think theyre all quality candidates and the other thing to watch for this year, no one is going to win iowa with 30 of the vote. Someone is going to win it with 20 of the vote. Thats whats going to happen in state after state. Youre going to see five or six candidates all the way to the end. Really . They can afford it . The way its set up this time with a lot of states proportional, you dont have to play statewide. It sounds like your party in 08. Well, it is, and the truth is johns absolutely right. Usually democrats have these Big Personality and issuedriven primaries with 10 or 12 people and you dont know whats going to happen. Republicans are an establishment. They pick the guy that didnt win the nomination last time. Those roles are completely reversed this time. People in the race like sharpton played in the Democratic Party a couple of those times. You had the most interesting guy in the debate. Youre not going to win but youre definitely going to be the best show. I just wonder, you wont answer my question, could this be a wacko year . We dont care whos going to win against hillary. Were running a guy we believe in, like a cruz, a ben carson or rand paul. I will say this. The primary thing is voters are not going to say in the republican primaries who is the best november candidate. They dont care about that. Thats what im asking. Does the candidate represent their views thats the way the democrats used to be. I will tell you, i think we have credible candidates so you can get away with it this year. You can pick any of these well i think theyll be competitive. You think ted cruz would be competitive with Hillary Clinton . I absolutely do. S that reminds me of the old days on the left. Let me ask you about the democrats. I didnt intend to ask about it. I dont see any rebellion against Hillary Clinton yet. Of any significance. I mean, rebellion. No, i dont think so. Theyre open to her. I think she has specific challenges that are apart from who the republicans nominate. I think first and foremost she has to articulate exactly why she wants to run. And what shed do as president in a compelling way. Secondly, i think whats going to interesting to watch, the Obama Campaign felt this in 2011 and 2012, without contested caucuses and primaries its not as easy to get people excited as it is if youre going through that process of every two weeks having this thing. So theres a lot that i still think theres a lot she has to do. I think this race is going to be super close in november of 2016. In november. In november. I dont think theres any doubt about that. I think quite frankly youve seen Reince Priebus say this and others. I think republicans i dont think theyre going to pick iowa, theyre not going to look at it and think, we have to pick the best person in november. By the time we get into the fall, theres no doubt this is not going to be just to send a message election. If Hillary Clinton has Elizabeth Warren get in the race, does Hillary Clinton shes not going to get in. Lets say hypothetically she would. Biden has a better chance of getting in. Who wins iowa between Elizabeth Warren shed make the most noise. Which is the biggest nightmare Hillary Clinton has. I wouldnt necessarily bet anyway, look. I disagree. I dont think Hillary Clinton should go for a close election. I know youre not saying that. I think she should go for a 54 victory because she could bring the house in, bring the senate in and really rule this country. This country needs somebody to get control of it. I dont want another split down the middle. And i think im more conservative. So i would think she should go more to the center. People who say, follow elizabeth off to the left. I say theres a way not to get 55 . Go to the hard left. Anyway, were already out of time. God youre really good at this. Youre, of course, always brilliant. You played a great game in the super bowl. Did you like these receptions . Absolutely i didnt think you had it in you, but wow. The plug he got during the super bowl was better than any of the ads people paid millions and millions for. I bet viewership triples tonight. Thank you, al michaels. Robert gibbs, it was a thrill to be at the stadium and watching all this. Coming up, Chris Christie steps in a minefield over vaccines. The new jersey governor says there needs to be balance, parents need a choice whether to vaccinate their kids. Science, of course, says otherwise. Whats christie up to . I think he was playing to the group we were talking to out in iowa. President obamas budget out there today as a bold progressive statement. He wants to raise taxes on the rich and spend money to put people to work. Good stuff. Corporate tax reform, tax reform, infrastructure. Everything ive been believing in. I dont think it came from me, but its certainly what i think is right. It shows me he wants to lead with swagger and dare the republicans to say no to a really good centrist idea. If you watched the super bowl last night, you heard plenty of talk about this guy, Chris Matthews. The seahawks Chris Matthews. Finally, let me finish with why i think the democrats need to hold their Convention Next year, national convention, in philadelphia. And this is hardball. The place for politics. Dish issues . Cascade platinum powers through your toughest messes better than the competition the first time. Cascade. Now thats clean. Well, new england is celebrating its super bowl win and the patriots are expected to arrive in home in bostons Logan Airport in the next few minutes but theyre arriving home in the midst of a huge winter storm, the second in a week. Nbcs Miguel Almaguer is in boston and joins us with the latest. Will they be allowed to get off the plane . Reporter they will if theyre wearing jackets. The temperatures are going to plummet over the next 24 hours. I should point out boston has had some 14 hours of steady snow here and also those whipping winds were actually on boylston street, this is the parade route. This is a problem, the reason why the parade has been delayed until wednesday. The street is a mess. There are mounds and piles of snow five, six feet high in this area. And its only getting worse. Were going to see steady snow over the next few hours and then its going to turn to bitterly cold temperatures. Roads across this region are a mess. In new york, there were several spinouts, at least two people were killed on the roadways. The conditions here only getting worse. As it gets colder. But the good news is the snow will stop overnight. Its just going to be those frigid temperatures theyre going to have to deal with. School has been canceled tomorrow as well as, of course, as you know, the parade has been pushed back until wednesday. When the patriots do make their way out here, its certainly going to be cold, but probably not snowing, chris. Great story. Boston is strong, miguel. You know that. Anyway, Miguel Almaguer, thank you, up in boston, for that report. Well be right back. Welcome back to hardball. New jersey governor Chris Christie today opened a pandoras box over Public Health suggesting at a press conference in london today parents should have more of a choice when it comes to vaccinating their kids from Infectious Diseases like measles. Do you think americans should vaccinate their kids . Is the measles vaccine safe . All i can say is we vaccinate ours, so, you know, thats the best expression i can give you my opinion. Its much more important, i think, when you think as a parent, than what you think as a public official. And thats what we do. But i also understand that parents need to have some measure of choice in things as well. So thats the balance that the government has to decide. It depends on what the vaccine is, what the disease type is, and all the rest. And so i didnt say im leaving people the option. What im saying is you have to have that balance in considering parental concerns because no parent, no parent cares about anything more than they care about protecting their own childs health. Theres a baseball player trying to tag every base at once. Anyway, his statement comes as the country here, our country is going through the worst Measles Outbreak in two decades. A disease many thought had been eliminated just 15 years ago. In 2014, the number of reported cases of measles was tripled out of previous years according to the centers for disease control, with 644 cases against 27 cases. That spike is attributed to the growing antivaccination movement in this country. Those who believe there are dangers associated with childhood vaccinations since the despite the Scientific Evidence thereto is not. President obama is far less ambiguous about the subject when he was asked about it over the weekend. The science is, you know, pretty indisputable. We looked at this again and again. There is every reason to get vaccinated. There arent reasons to not get vaccinated. Are you telling parents you should get your kids vaccinated . You should get your kids vaccinated. Christies statement, the governor thinks vaccines are an important Public Health theres no question kids should be vaccinated. Joining me, howard dean, a medical doctor, of course, and usa todays susan. Dr. Dean, i have to tell you, i dont understand what game christie is playing there. He seemed to be saying everything at once. The only reason i can think hes playing that game is for trying to reach the republican hard right or somebody out there on the yahoo regions that doesnt like science. I dont know what hes up to. What do you think hes up to is. I think hes pandering. This is the second time for him on Public Health. In general, politicians shouldnt talk about something they dont know anything about. He clearly doesnt know anything about Public Health. He tried to quarantine some lady who came back from liberia who did not need to be quarantined, and she unfortunately, he stuck her in a tent outside a hospital in new jersey and she finally got to go up to got to go up to maine which is where she lived, and the governor up there carried on about it. You know, theres a Science Associated with medicine, and people probably ought to listen to what it is before they come to these kinds of conclusions especially people who are running for president. Susan, i didnt understand i listened closely. I read what he said before. He was asked about the measles epidemic then he ended up saying we ought to have Parental Choice of some kind, and then his office put back, well, in cases of measles, they should be vaccinated which is what he was asked about. So what game is he playing . Well, you know, if hes i think youre. Im sorry, go ahead, susan. Susan first. Lets look at the politics of this. I dont think this makes m