This first year of trump is going to mean for the Republican Party in the long term, for conservatives . Do they have the same home that they used to, or is the party irreparably changed . I think long term, the chances are high that the Republican Party, it cant recover or is broken apart or this is the beginning of a breaking apart for them. The brand of what it means to be a conservative or conservative republican is kind of lost. And whether conservatives in particular can ever get back to, you know, having a party of their own is hard to know. You have a lot of people like Pete Wayner N david brooks out there saying im a political refugee. Sounds like you wouldnt say that donald trump is conservative. Oh, hes definitively not. Michael steele . No, hes not. Hes not at all. I agree with jon. I think what weve seen at the surface is something thats been going on beneath the surface since reagan left office. And certainly it came to a head during my time as National Chairman with the tea party. Sort of asserting itself. This brand that came out and said we adhere to the constitutional principles that have defined the party and, thus, we will not spend money we do not have. We will not grow the National Debt and all these things and lo and behold in the age of trump, thats exactly what republicans in congress are now doing. To the tune of 1. 5 trillion. 1. 5 trillion. To listen to members of congress over the last few weeks leading up to the passage of this tax bill dismiss out of hand as irrelevant deficits and the concept of deficit spending, as well as the debt to me tells me, to johns point, were in a brandnew era for the party and this is not your mom and daddys Republican Party anymore. Its the party of trump, and you either are going to be in it or outside of it. But there is to get back to pauls point. One thing theyve done in that republicans on the hill will say, okay, this is great, is they are in the process of remaking the judiciary. In terms of the Circuit Courts and which has really longterm
impacts. These are lifetime appointments. I was talking to one person who works close to senator mcconnell. He was like the thing i dont think thats covered enough is weve installed a bunch of justices on the Circuit Court level, and theyre not going to go anywhere whether trump is president or not president. Now there have been some issues with some of the people the white house has sent over to capitol hill and Senator Grassley has had some problems getting a few of these people through. Seemingly totally unqualified. Seemingly unqualified in a situation where its totally, like the wheels are greased to get as many conservative justices up there. But that is a win. And thats a conservative win. Does that keep evangelicals on board . The judiciary is big for evangelicals. Theres a distinction. I would agree with shawna and paul, there are things happening in the Trump Administration that are good for conservatives. Trump, writ large, is radically nonconservative fig are and so have evangelicals proven
themselves to be nonconservative in their appetite for radical change rather than the conservative ideal of slow, incremental preservative change. A little bit at a time. Lets take a look. We have some polling from years end that shows us what this landscape might look like. Democrats just completely in a different position than they have been before. In our own nbc news Wall Street Journal poll, 50 saying that democrats should be control congress. Thats an extraordinary number heading into the midterm elections. It is. I take some exception to that since i had a hand in building the house we currently have. And you realize that you cannot sustain that when the people who are inside the house are tearing up the floor boards and knocking out the windows and putting all kinds of signage on the front lawn that is scaring the hell out of people. I think that is something that the party is going to come to grips with. Mcconnell gets it, certainly, and i think you saw after the
loss in alabama, what was the first thing he did . He made it clear who his target was. Steve bannon. You want to come after us . Were ready. Well come after you. So thats going to be sort of the undercard of the bigger fight that were going to see play out. So the civil war is still going to be the civil war still going, yes. And its being televised every day. Where do the democrats in their vulnerabilities fit into this. If nancy pelosi is still running the show for House Democrats is that something that drags them down or is the sentiment against the president so intense that that doesnt matter . I dont think it matters. It is true theres an argument within the Democratic Party about the importance of chachblgichachblg i changing a generation of leadership. Nancy pelosi is still the best poster child republicans have of why you dont want to elect someone like doug jones to be your senator, but it didnt work because the republican candidate in that case was so much worse and there is an enormous amount
of energy and activism in the Democratic Base. The question i think you have to ask is, is the sort of trump frustration and to some degree the trump dementia thats grasped the democratic grassroots enough to take back the house. Whether or not nancy pelosi is leader doesnt really matter. And if they do take back the house, that brings into question a whole different discussion potentially about impeachment and the ramifications of the russia investigation which we havent even touched on. That still seems destined to dominate the year in the conversation. Potentially as the year has closed, the president has seemed at times to be at peace with where that investigation is, but i mean, i have doubts about whether that holds. I have real doubts about whether that holds depending on the next time we get an email from the special Prosecutors Office saying someone is going to court. Youll have a very hard time not responding to that, especially
as they interview more and more people in his inner circle and as trumps team trumps outside legal team meets more and more with the special Prosecutors Office. But i also think in terms of next year with women and running for congress, some of that energy, and weve seep that there theres a long list of women considering running for congress in a way weve not seen for a long time. That energy between the me, too, situation as well as which i think is almost in some ways a direct reaction to President Trumps election, as well as how everything has gone this year. I think theres some energy that will keep on coming from women. Im curious from you, though, about, do you see the parallels to 2010 for the democrats . Theyre incredible. But the interesting thing is, what i did in looking at the landscape at the time was create a narrative. And so the moniker fire pelosi
was all about i remember that in 2010. We the people matter. You krael this. And the only way to fire pelosi is to do what . You know, hire someone else to take the position of a democrat in congress. But that translated to state races as well. When you look at the state race. Over 760plus State House Races across the country on this one theme. The key thing for me was not targeting barack obama. Because barack obama was not really the root here. And i think that for the democrats, they need to understand it may not be donald trump as the root per se. Maybe in some cases, but theyll have to be able to translate that down to get, as we saw in alabama, republicans to do something that goes against their nature. And that is to vote for a democrat. Jon okay. Good luck with that. Best of luck. Question, though. You have seen democrats approach this in some cases a little differently. I feel like the experimentation with the messaging is in the early phases. There are many in the liberal Democratic Base who are saying absolutely you will not work with trump or say a word about anything positive about him at all. But on the other hand, tim kaine in virginia will say, if you ask him, ill work with the president where i need to. In arizona, Kirsten Cinema is starting to make those arguments. In some cases, ill work with the president. Where do you think that goes. How is the path to the majority potent yelly in figuring out how to embrace President Trump . Alabama is a tough comparison because roy moore was such a carbon copy and accelerated version in some ways of donald trump. And so that would have been a state in which doug jones would have had to talk more about economics but all he could talk about is roy moore. Tim kaine got up on the stage the night Ralph Northum was elected governor in virginia and he talked about trump at the top but the bulk of his five,
tenminute speech was, about weve got to be the party of jobs and the economy. And then ended with hitting trump. And they are very focused on not getting into a food fight on cultural issues with cory stewart, the guy who is running as a trumpian republican there. They want to keep their message focused on jobs message. Thats the sweet spot. And some of these moderate to red states, thats definitely going to have to be the path. If i could real quick its about trump you put your mouth into your facial expression which was pricelessless. The example id offer up would be that special election in virginia in which a transgender woman won. How did she win . She didnt campaign winning against trump and his clear anning an ing anathema with the Gay Community but she wonna jobs, on fixing transportation. Her opponent ran against her Sexual Orientation and background and story. And that, for democrats is that
sweet spot. To your point, jon, where you focus that energy and messaging around something that people identify with every day. Which is why its dangerous if trump comes out with an Infrastructure Bill because hell be handing the democrats something they can agree with him on and agree to work with him on and the republicans are going to be dont vote for that guy because hes a bad guy, but he agrees with the president on this. What do we do . I was saying when doug jones was talking about policy, he was not talking about President Trump all that much in alabama either. Yes, that race is totally weird, and i get tharkt, but he had a mission to keep it as focused on jobs in alabama while also sometimes mentioning roy moore. He stopped doing a lot of National Media and very clearly batoning down the hatchs on the local bread and butter issues. Im excited to see how 2018 transitions into 2020. Were going to pause this conversation here for now. When we come back, ill be joined by the crack nbc news
capitol hill team that i work with every day to get their top five list of what to watch for in congress coming up next year. Kasie d. C. s New Years Eve special is back in just a moment. A lot of water. Medications seem to be the number one cause for dry mouth. Dry mouth can cause increased cavities, bad breath, oral irritation. I like to recommend biotene. Biotene has a full array of products that replenishes the moisture in your mouth. Biotene definitely works. It makes patients so much happier. [heartbeat]
with liberty, we could afford a real babysitter instead of your brother. Hey. Oh. Thats my robe. Is it . You could save Seven Hundred Eighty Two Dollars when liberty stands with you. Liberty mutual insurance. I dont think anyone would confuse him with a wellrespected health care expert. I wouldnt take advice from Charlie Sheen either. Our folks, every now and then, sort of like a free range chicken. They just kind of move off on their own. You realize to Many Americans right now that looks like were giving Lindsay Lohan the keys to the mini bar. Obviously, youd rather have 52 votes than 51 because you can lose an extra free range chicken. Even though its not perfect, im going to vote for it. Ill be on it like a hobo on a ham sandwich. I cannot go down to my overpriced capitol hill grocery this afternoon and choose among about six different types of mayonnaise. How come i cant do that for my kid . It makes me a little bit nervous because of those free
range chickens i talked about. Welcome back to kasie dc. That was the always quotable senator john kennedy. The chickens did come home for republicans and their tax plan. Joining me for our New Years Eve party, some of the most important people i work with every day, capitol hill producer alex moe, frank thorpe and producer on the nbc news capitol hill team, mariana sotomayor. Theyve all brought their top ten things to watch in 2018. For those of us who know you frank thorpe, well be unsurprised to learn that you sent seven because youre an overachiever. And i want to start with your number six. You asked, does the gop Tax Reform Bill become the republican obamacare over the course of the next year . What do you mean by that . Senator mcconnell was asked this after the Senate Passed the bill. And this is a question republicans and democrats are looking at going into 2018. Whether this bill will be able to be hung on republicans the same way that it that the Affordable Care act was hung on democrats. This bill, when it was passed, this bill was more unpopular than obamacare was. And democrats went on to lose several elections. Correct. But republicans look at this in a different way. Senator mcconnell, he thinks of this as an argument they can win. They can go out and sell this. Theyre going to go out and make a concerted effort to sell this thing. You guys have more money in your paychecks. This is different than the idea the government is now in charge of your health care. Now you have money. This is a tangible thing youre bringing home every two weeks in your paycheck. They think they can flip this on democrats. They can look at democrats and point to them and say, sorry. They voted against taking giving you that extra money and if you put democrats in charge in 2018 if you vote them into the majority, they can vote these tax cuts away. Although they do expire in
2025 and most americans are Congress Needs to make sure these become perminent. But this question brings me to, if we can put up alexs top five. Alex covers the house for us specifically. Thats what this house looks at. And i think to franks point and, well, yes, its going to matter a lot in the senate, this question of hough the tax bill plays gets to the heart of your question which is can democrats win back the house . Republicans really needed to pass a Tax Reform Bill to get a win on the board for them going into 2018. But democrats are saying nancy pelosi said herself before the break that, you know, lets see what happens. Let the republicans think that this republican tax plan is going to be good for them because democrats are definitely going to campaign against this. Theyll say youre better off having the democrats in the majority. Democrats to take back the house need to flip about 24 seats. At this point they think its doable when you look at alabama, virginia. They are seeing that people
dont like donald trump very much and theyre going to take that and run with it when it comes to 2018. They seem to be winning the Enthusiasm Gap by a large margin which tipped us off that 2010 was going to be a wave. Democrats want to run against President Trump in 2018 and theyll try to do that. Will republicans try to run against nancy pelosi who some people, even within the caucus want to see stepped down and get a new fresh face in there. Thats how republicans were able to win in 2010. Able to run against pelosi. Very interesting. Mariana, i want to bring your list up now. You have focused quite a bit on reporting on the Intelligence Committee investigations. Of course, on the senate side and also on the house side which, from what we can tell are continuing somewhat into perpetuity. But i want to pull out your second one is, you know, will we start to see reports from these committees. And what is your sense of what
we might learn from the senate Intelligence Committee to start . What are they actually going to tell the American People at the end of the day . It seems like were inching closer to getting some reports. On the senate side i was told by Senator Warner that very early into 2020 so january or february, well see at least a report on how russia intervened in the campaigns and just trying to know about Election Security in general. How secure is the American Public . How secure is the system . Who have they informed about that already and what can we do now going into the midterms which senator blunt pointed out. Some people are going to start voting in march in the primaries. Thats something well see first on the senate side later on. Are we going to see a partisan food fight around how much do you put out in the public on that report do you think . On the senate side, i dont
think so. Both the republicans and the democrats are really wanting to put out at least this one portion about Election Security. I think it will be. The house looking at a complete wrapup of their investigation soon early into 2018. That is looking like it could be a democratic report and a republican report. Lets see, probably two different conclusions