First we find ourselves in a mind bending stretch of days. The latest poll from cbs news and ugov shows joe biden and Bernie Sanders tied for the lead at 25 each. Some shows of force from candidates this weekend. The Sanders Campaign says 3,000 people were in attendance. And at andrew yangs, a field organizer said we are past the fire code. That shows that 46 of americans approve of the job that President Trump is doing while 51 disapprove. Whats happening back home in washington after the republican majority succeeded in blocking witnesses in the impeachment trial . A vote on the final verdict set for wednesday. After tomorrows caucuses, President Trump will enter the House Chamber as a president technically still on trial. It also means that the world is getting john boltons thoughts on kpeksit and venezuela instead of his firsthand knowledge about the president s Pressure Campaign against ukraine. And with that i would like to welcome in my allstar panel, katy tur, chief correspondent balancing volz, Politico Magazine tim alberta, and an msnbc contributor, careen jean pier. Welcome. Dan volz, we really have no idea whos going to come out on top . No we dont. The polls most of them have shown senator sanders and Vice President biden kind of up top, but a mashup overall. In talking to campaigns through friday before everybody arrived again for real campaigning everybody parachuted back in here. Yeah. I got the sense that the other campaigns believed that Bernie Sanders would turn out the most voters on caucus night. But not that he necessarily would lead on delegates by the time everybody does their realigning. So there is a lot of uncertainty. As you know, the order of finish, even if close, will have some impact Going Forward and perhaps a real impact. Katy, youve been here for the last week. Whats your sense . What have you learned . I want to echo what dan was saying, the other campaigns do feel like Bernie Sanders is the big threat. But Bernie Sanders campaigning with aungt acting confident, they are unwilling to say they are planning on a victoryvictory party. I think its called expectation setting. Exactly. The biggest thing ive noticed is that voters continually say theyre not quite sure who they like. There are Bernie Sanders voters all about him, same as warren, biden as well. Once you get past the first handful of people, its, im not quite sure im going to make my decision on caucus night. Remember, this is all about peer pressure. When you walk into that room and your friends and neighbors are caucusing for biden and youre considering warren, are you going to move or over to your friends and neighbors . Its going to be about ground game, who you no he in that room. I dont think we should trust any single poll right now. I think we probably learned that lesson, fingers crossed. Careen, you have been in the trenches on all of this, talking to the campaigns. Whats your sense of where things stand here . And what happens if Bernie Sanders comes out the victor . Its so wild, because really echoing what you guys have been saying, it is so fluid. When you look at the polls and you dig down just a little bit deeper, you see people who havent made a decision or people who could be convinced to go with someone else. We didnt see this in 2008, 2016. So the question is, what type of electr electr elect trat is going to come out . Is it going to be, we want change . Or is it comfort . 2004 or 2008 . Its going to be high turnout. A lot of folks believe that. People have suggested it might be the highest ever. Right. Which means a lot in that environment. Tim alberta, how in your view does the impeachment process we have been so hyper focused on in washington, how is it affecting whats going on out here if at all . I think its probably more minimal than anybody might think. Democrats who were fired up are already going to be caucusing. Those who have tuned it out, theyre perhaps a lower propensity caucus goer. But there are two things to watch, the first to your point, the undecideds. We dont know how that last 20 to 25 of the caucus going electorate. Marco rubio had been poling low, but he wound up higher. There is a sense even among the Sanders Campaign that somebody could break late. I think the other thing is watch is nobody is talking about joe biden that much because his crowds are small, not a huge enthusiasm on the ground. But joe biden isnt that rock star, isnt that cause. People who are going to caucus for him are not going to drive across the state. He could be sneaky strong in a way we dont necessarily suspect at this point. This was the argument, i talked to both the former Vice President and governor vil sak last week, and basic put that same question to them, your crowds are smaller, they are less enthusiastic than we are seeing for others. How much does that concern you . Vice President Biden brushed it off. Vil sak said people know him, respect him, like him, dont have to come out to events. You should not equate that to what might happen on caucus night. Lets pick up on that. You made this argument a lot covering trump. People would say, listen, the folks coming to trump, its a friday night and wherever, what are you going to do on that friday night . Go to the movies or the show that is donald trump . Oh, it is just a show. Theyre there to experience it, not serious about voting for him. That was what i heard over and over and over again. And these were people that would sit out overnight in the snow to wait to get inside. They were not only enthusiastic. They were completely committed to going to vote for him. I will say on thursday he was here in des moines, and there were people who were waiting overnight to see him once again. And these are people that have seen him before. He had a 7,000person at capacity crowd, fire marshal shut people out. Its not me rooting for donald trump, or rooting for a democrat, when youre looking at enthusiasm, it can matter. Donald trump stills maintains a lot in these states which cou. I have been at home covering impeachment until recently. Im relying on you guys welcome to the real world. To bring me the real scoop from here in iowa. But i have heard people make comparisons when you talk about the size of joe bidens crowds, they compare that to Hillary Clinton and what happened in 2016. Hey, can we beat donald trump with somebody who doesnt necessarily have the same kind of enthusiasm that we know from our lessons in 2016 can make a difference . Enthusiasm i agree with katy, it matters, especially with an iowa caucus in particular, because thats happening tomorrow. Youre asking people to do a lot, take time off, go and caucus for you, go against their neighbors. Thats a lot. The only way you get folks to do that is if theyre enthusiastic and excited about your campaign. When you look at the general election, i say this all the time, democrats are going to need a movement to beat donald trump. Yes, hes incredibly unpopular. Impeachment is insane right now. But they have to expand their base, get people who dont come out to vote. And that means you need enthusiasm. Dans latest piece in the washington post, its about tomorrows caucuses, while the party over the past three years has struggled to answer a basic question, how do you beat trump, the results from here will offer the first moments of clarity. Its a question of whether the party wants to move towards candidates that would bring a democratic revolution to countertrumps republican one or whether the party wants a more traditional nominee who would run on uncontroversial issues. This seems to be the biden versus bernie in a nutshell. And i think so prior to the last ten days or so, it looked as though this race might be heading toward biden versus bernie. Well get a better sense of that tomorrow night. Nonetheless, thats a clear cleavage within the party. And i think what the biden folks are counting on is in the end, people who are undecided will go for a safer choice rather than take a risk. But that could be a risk for the partys one thing i have been turning over, i covered Bernie Sanders campaign on the road for months in 2016, and he ran it all the way to the very end. And as democrats are grappling with this challenge, im wondering if there isnt something going on with the electorate and Bernie Sanders team gets upset when you compare him to donald trump. But at the same time he seems to have tapped into an anger in the democratic electorate and expanded it in a populist way that reminds me of some of the anger we heard from trump voters. Do you sense that . Definitely. Its over some of the same issues. Trade. That argument within the Democratic Party over base mobilization versus persuasion, how do we beat trump, bernie is the one candidate who sits at the nexus and says i can do both. Whether he can or not remains to be seen. If you look at the democratic socialists or more progressives, in 2018, democrats took back the house not on a boldly progressive vision but on dozens of these very disciplined, centerleft, moderate candidates who talked about lowering health care, working with the Republican Party, fighting against gun control efforts. This was not a liberal message. Thats a great point. Im wondering, they all voted to impeach the president. How does that affect things . Thats where it gets interesting. If you look at wisconsin, theres a belief that donald trump was this political phenomenon and won that no one could have. He won fewer than mitt romney. Donald trump won. Whats the common denominator there . Its not that donald trump was able to turn out masses of voters who had never been willing to vote for a republican. It was that democrats nominated someone who did not connect. If theyre able to rectify that in 2016 donald trump will have a harder time hanging on. Thanks. Were following your politico stuff closely. We have an exclusive mic memly with joe bidenen. Were at java joes here in des moines. Mornings were made for Better Things than Rheumatoid Arthritis or Psoriatic Arthritis. 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So when a hailstorm hit, usaa reached out before he could even inspect the damage. Thats how you do it right. Usaa insurance is made just the way martins family needs it with hasslefree claims, he got paid before his neighbor even got started. Because doing right by our members, thats whats right. Usaa. What youre made of, were made for. Usaa theres a company thats talked than me jd power. People 448,134 to be exact. They answered 410 questions in 8 categories about vehicle quality. And when they were done, chevy earned more j. D. Power quality awards across cars, trucks and suvs than any other brand over the last four years. So on behalf of chevrolet, i want to say thank you, real people. Youre welcome. Were gonna need a bigger room. Welcome back to a special iowa caucus edition from jaufa joes in des moines. With some of his democratic rieskd of rivals died up in washington, former Vice President joe biden has been trying to take advantage of their absence. Mike menoli has been about him just about every step of the way for quite a few years. He joins us with his exclusive interview. Mike, where does everything stand . Reporter well, it was thant long ago where it seemed that the Biden Campaign was writing off iowa. But since they launched that no malarkey bus tour in november, they have been all in here. As caucus day has grown closer, the pressure has been building, as we saw first hand this week. Another day in iowa, another day on the bus. Want to go for a bus ride . Thanksds for letting me go with you. Nine months after he launched his bid, he still pro jergted confidence. What does your gut tell you . Things are going well. And its not inconsistent with the poll. In the last week of the campaign with many of his rivals tied up in washington, he blitzed the state, 23 events in nine days. In between, using his time on the bus to lock up precinct captains, check up with family, rally allies. Theres not a wasted movement in on this bus. People think you do an event, drive, take time off in between. Not a lot. On stage, bidens Closing Argument for the caucuses has been more like a general election. Ladies and gentlemen, in november, america will have a chance to answer the question, does the character of a president matter . 17 republicans thought they knew how to beat donald trump and lost to him. Hillary clinton thought she knew how to beat donald trump, lost the general election to him. What makes you think you know how to beat donald trump, your way of beating him is the right way, and can we . I think theres two things. One, everybody is on to him now. I think the way to go after donald trump is to point out what he hasnt done, point out what he wont do, and point out why its important, the bad things he has done, how badly its hurt the country and hurt our character as a country. While he emphasizes oneonone connections, the Vice President battling the perception of enthusiasm gap. You seem to be making the pitch for the head and not the heart . I think it is both, the vaft majority of the American People know me, and i think they by and large, based on polling data, the good news we they know me. The bad news, they know me. Attacks on me and my weaknesses are real. But the attacks on my strengths. Electability . We have to get a good democratic in there. Hes our man, the one thats going to beat trump. Thats the biggest selling point . Absolutely. As polls show a tightening primary battle, biden turned up the heat on Bernie Sanders. His dilemma from my perspective is that he is not being trait forward on how hes going to get done what hes suggesting and the cost of what hes suggesting. Biden insists iowa wont be makeorbreak for his candidacy, taking a long view of the race . Nothing happens here on monday thats going to end this campaign. Its a very different circumstance than it has been in the past. And i think its going to be a really tough contest here. One of the things that i think youre going to see a bunch of us coming out bufrmgd up. And thats going to be fine. I mean id rather have an hour i win, dont get my wrong. I think i have a firewall in South Carolina. And then we go into the super tuesday states that have significant number of minorities and afternoricanamericans runni think im going to do fine. No regrets . No. The only thing i made a commitment to beau, than i would run, but that i would not back away from things ive always done and cared about. And so there is no regret. As long as i do my best and as beau would say, remember home base, be who you are and make your case, if my case can be made in a way that people accept it, all the better. If they dont, they dont. We continued that part of the conversation ininformally, biden saying if beau had run hed be 51yearold president. But the real reason hes running is because of donald trump. So, mike, great interview, always illuminating. Biden used the phrase, taking the long view of this campaign. How are they currently thinking about Mike Bloomberg and the pressure hes potentially putting on the Biden Campaign . They are essentially making the argument behind the scenes were going to be here in the event joe biden falls apart in iowa and New Hampshire and theres serious concern about whether biden can go the distance if he doesnt perform in these first two states. How is the Campaign Thinking about that, worrying about that, or not . You hit the nail on the head, because on paper the campaign believes they can win a long delegate battle if thats what this turns out to be. In reality they know if it falls short here in iowa, the narrative is going to be about a weak frontrunner. That leads to donors holding back their cash, and that could prove to be fatal. Biden has been spending every dollar as quickly as it comes in. Hes had help from a super pac. But when you look at super tuesday and how many states including california, they wont have the resources to compete with Mike Bloomberg. Hell be waiting to make the argument, biden had his turn and couldnt get it done. Now get behind me. All right, mike memoli, thanks. The panel is back, including president and ceo of vo toe latino, maria teresa ca maur. What did you hear from caucus goers . What ive heard from people that show up, they want to see him come out and fight. They want to see him punch back at the pred. They want to see him defend himself and his family forcefully. I was talking to a couple that came in and they liked Amy Klobuchar. But they were there at the biden event because they wanted him to take on this president because they femt he was slandering him. They were ready to