Environmental regulations. Well dig into that in just a moment we start with breaking news. President trump just named a new National Security adviser, his fourth in 2 1 2 years. Thats the most any president has had in his first term. Lets go right to the white house. Thats where we find nbcs kelly odonnell. Kelly o. , what do we know about Robert Obrien. Reporter Robert Obrien has been part of a few of the moments of the Trump Administration that the president has been most likely to boast about, and that is the return of americans held overseas as hostages or captives he has been serving as a negotiator on behalf of the u. S. State department for house taj situations if you can picture in your mind, craig, some of the occasions where the president had a newly returned american sint in the oval office, Robert Obrien has been there through those occasions hes worked with secretary of state mike pompeo. Because of all of that, thats sort of the way the president has gotten to know obrien, and he has also had an opportunity to get to work with mike pompeo. Both of those things are key because advisers here want a sort of nodrama approach after the position involving National Security adviser has certainly been dramafilled throughout the trump years. Of course, timing is important the president will go to the u. N. General Assembly Later this month, and that is high stakes to be sure it comes at a time when theres increased tension with iran and, of course, with the attacks on the Saudi Arabian oil fields when you look at who is Robert Obrien, in part, its parent to look at his background hes worked in the past for the campaigns of mitt romney and scott walker, a more traditional republican background in that way. Hes also described by the Washington Post as the highest ranking mormon in the u. S. Government now because of this position of course, being National Security advisor does not require senate confirmation, so the president appointing him puts him in this position. Hes a california native hes authored books. He has been a part of the sort of private sector as well as government, National Security back and forth worked with Condoleezza Rice during the administration of george w. Bush and so forth. So not a wellknown name in terms of the general public, but in those republican circles has been known over the last couple decades, and certainly may be more prominent Going Forward in the administration the other big expectation is he will be in line with the thinking of mike pompeo, the secretary of state that will be a real question will there be the coined of disagreements that we have seen with john bolton not expected to be so. Will Robert Obrien be a person who gives his differing opinions to the president we dont yet know how hell deal with that. That will be something well have to report outGoing Forward. Some of what they were looking for is a quick answer, someone they have confidence in and someone that they dont think will have much drama craig. Kelly odonnell from the white house, thanks as always. Well have much more on the new National Security adviser and what it could mean for escalating tensions in the u. N lets turn to that new nbc news wall street journal poll giving fresh insight into the 2020 race. Its the First National poll conducted since last weeks debate here are the snapshots joe biden and Elizabeth Warren both up since july, leading the crowded primary field. Warren pulling away from Bernie Sanders who holds steady in third place there. She appears to be closing in on joe bidens lead Kamala Harris, seeing her numbers drop, down eight points in just two months no one knows the numbers better than this guy. Steve kornacki, our National Political correspondent for nbc news and ali vitali, nbc reporter covering the Warren Campaign mr. Kornacki, lets start with you. Top lines from this new poll, what are they . What are you see you showed it right there interesting, weve been talking all summer about it looked like a battle between warren and sanders for second place they were leapfrogging each other one poll after the next. At least in our poll now warren attaining some separation from sanders. If you look closely, warren six points behind biden for first place, 11 points ahead of sanders for second place in other words, closer to the lead in this race right now according to this poll than she is to Bernie Sanders in the battle for second and third place. Why is warren surging and moving this close two things there is some overlap when it comes to the support of warren and sanders. They are surprisingly different coalitions when you look at the demographics but there has been some overlap and it looks like the warren is getting the better of sanders when it comes to that. The other thing, its Kamala Harris, Kamala Harris sliding all the way back to 5 after she had that moment in the first debate her poll numbers seemed to start taking off after that. Here we are, back down to 5 warren appears to be the big beneficiary of that. Theres also a race divide here, racial divide. Warren now leading in this poll among white voters she is a point ahead of joe biden among white voters on the democratic side. It continues to be africanamerican voters who are bidens biggest source of strength he leads with 49 . Notably, by the way, warren is in second place, a very distant second place but warren was back in single digits, 3 , 4 , 5 with black voters now shes at 13, in double digits if thats the start of the trend, that could be important its the age gap, weve been talking about this all year. The youngest voters, under 35 years old, sanders is ahead. But look at this the former Vice President joe biden is running behind andrew yang all democrats under 35 years old, yang right now has more support than joe biden where is joe biden getting support . The other end of the age scale, 65plus. Biden nearly at 50 support. Warren in second place by the way, you dont even see Bernie Sanders registering at over 5 over 65. Hes also suffering. He does well with young voters, poor with older voters, the reverse for joe biden. Thats fascinating. Something else, enthusiasm, a democratic pollster who worked on this poll with nbc news said something we want to share what we see in september, according to this pollster, isnt what we see in december. He points out back in september of 2007 Hillary Clinton frontrunner in the polls, not barack obama, but barack obama did have quite the edge when it came to voters enthusiasm. Did we look at that . We did. Unfortunately we dont have it in here. Maybe we have a screen we can put up Elizabeth Warren right now when it comes to that question of enthusiasm, its Elizabeth Warren who right now and also the question of how broadly acceptable the candidates all to all democratic voters. That becomes important when you get to the primaries, candidates drop out. If youre still going and broadly acceptable, maybe your best position to inherent that support. Thank you so much, Steve Kornacki ms. Vitali, youre covering the Warren Campaign for us what are they saying about the causes of the surge . Do they know why she seems to be catching on more now than just a few months ago this is a campaign thats really disciplined theyre not to bogged down in the ebb and flow of what new poll is coming out of course, theyre seeing things they like in this one. Steve makes the point that when people start dropping out, you have to become the acceptable option when you look at the fact that she is the second choice for most of the people in this poll, gets the most support as the second choice candidate, thats interesting. The fact that people are comfortable with her, they see enthusiasm levels rising, thats a good thing shes g better with africanamerican voters. You and i know how important that coalition was to past democratic nominees like barack obama. Its also important in states like South Carolina which you know very well there havent really been many signs of life for her with that voting bloc, but shes going to need to keep making gains there. That really is joe bidens way of keeping his hold on this race right now. Were going to have to see if this is a trend that continues, we might see joe biden slip in the polls. Anecdotally, weve seen her rallies are larger considerably than they were a fewmonths ago is that what youre seeing on the trail . Yeah. I dont cover joe biden as much. He has these more intimate rally size events. You see Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren getting bigger crowd sizes than joe biden whether or not that matters, its not bearing out in the polls right now because theyre trailing bite den. Crowd size can be a predictor in terms of where the enthusiasm is thats what were seeing in this poll, enthusiasm for folks like Elizabeth Warren you come to a place like new york city, i imagine if youre a democratic candidate, youll get a big crowd, especially if youre polling high. At the same time, the fact that she can get 20,000 people on monday night, thats pretty notable and making other campaigns turn their heads and look at whats going on with Elizabeth Warren. Ali vitali, thank you. I want to bring in jonathan capehart, opinion writer for the Washington Post, also msnbc contributor and Derrick Thompson staff writer for the atlantic and also host of podcast crazy genius as steve pointed out, one of the other big takeaways for this poll, Kamala Harris support dropping by eight points according to this poll what are you hearing from the campaign about why this may be happening or do they know . Well, i have not reached out to anyone in the Harris Campaign to find out why this is happening. That being said, i have my own thoughts one, the fact that Vice President biden is still rising in support in the polls, as weve been talking about before, has a lot to do with his strong backing from africanamerican supporters, the fact that Elizabeth Warren is rising up among overall democratic voters, but also getting strong second place support among africanamericans, those two things should be troubling to the Harris Campaign. I think there are two issues here that the Harris Campaign has to figure out how to overcome one is trying to convince africanamerican voters that it is okay to vote for another black person for president and also to convince people that it is okay to vote for a woman. Even though Elizabeth Warren is rising in the polls, i think that maybe africanamericans are hughing to her more than to senator harris because they might view senator warren as someone who could get white voters and, therefore, be more electable. The other key numbers, craig, in the poll that we havent talked about, and that is the one that says only 9 of the people polled have made up their minds. Knowing that figure, that 9 figure, does that give more hope to the bottom of the pack or the top of the pack . I think it gives more hope to the middle of the pack as weve been talking about, it seems like the race is gelling among the top two, but for folks like senator sanders, senator harris, mayor pete, the fact that an overwhelming majority of voters at least in this poll havent made up their minds means that there is ample opportunity to make the case for their candidacies. I think certainly for senator harris there is ample opportunity for her to do that. Derrick, i want to talk to you about this new piece you wrote for the atlantic. Headline reads american migration patterns should terrify the gop. You write in part, quote, millennial movers have hastened the growth of leftleaning metros in southern red states like texas, arizona and georgia. It could be the biggest political story of the 2020s how does this change the game of the parties heading into 2020, derek . Theres a distribution problem. Hillary clinton won the 2016 popular vote by more than 2 million votes, but legally lost in the Electoral College thats what people know. What people might not know is she won brooklyn and manhattan by 1 million democratic votes. Thats more than trumps margin in florida, georgia, arizona, North Carolina, pennsylvania, was cisconsin and michigan combd the big issue Going Forward is how do they have better distribution of their National Popular vote margin . Thats what were beginning to see. The largest metros in the south, atlanta, phoenix and the four biggest metros in texas are having explosive growth, growth among their younger populations but also domestic migration, people moving to those cities from new york, los angeles, chicago and a lot of other metros north of the masondixon line this is going to have a really big impact on the electoral map in the next 15 years just look at texas obama in 2012 won the five biggest counties in texas by about 100,000 votes. Hillary clinton won in 2016 by 500,000 votes. Orourke in 2018 won those five counties by 800,000 votes. A 700,000vote increase in the biggest texas cities why does 700,000 votes matter . Thats exactly trumps margin in the 2016 election. You had a poll coming out from the university of houston showing that trump is running behind the top three Democratic Candidates in texas. If texas goes purple, if arizona goes purple, if georgia and North Carolina go purple, youre looking at an entirely different electoral picture. Why, of course its important to look at which democratic is in the inside lane for the primary and the nomination in 2020, the big picture is the american electoral map is utterly changing under our feet. You also write, its not just about elections and votes that these shifts could lead to potential showdowns between blue cities that happen to be in red states exactly david graham, a writer at the atlantic has written really expent articles about the blue cityred state showdowns happening in, say, North Carolina charlotte will pass a liberal law on lgbtq rights and the North Carolina state legislature will try to preempt that law if you have more states in the south like that, more states where the cities are extremely blue but the state is still slightly leaning red or purple, youll see more of those showdowns. Thats not a pretty picture if you see North Carolina politics spreading throughout the south at the same time, right now what we have in the u. S. Is this really poisonous urban rural showdown, where democrats in the party cities theres no single Republican City the Republican Party has become an anti urban party. If you have growing suburbs that are not only bringing in liberals from cities like los angeles and new york where theyre being priced out, but also you see some republican rural voters moving into those suburbs, you might through the sheer force of neighborly proximity, get a slightly plor progressive, slightly more proactive, slightly less vitriolic politics emerging at the national scene. Well leave it there. Derek thompson, jonathan capehart, thank you. 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