Hello and good afternoon to you from brook lib. Im chris hayes. Three months from today republicans will go to cleveland to pick their nominee for president and that is about all we know for sure on this, the eve of the New York Primary tomorrow. Thats all we know about the gop convention, the date. Anyone who says they know who the nominee will be is either lying to you, lying to
themselves or unlikely case they have been in the future and returned to tell us about it. Donald trump is in the lead and a delegate sweep tomorrow would erase cruzs wyoming weekend momentum. The fact that trumps main target is the republican voting process itself could be a clue his campaign is thinking about the possibility they could fall short of that magic delegate number. Weve got some new numbers from our nbc news wall street journal poll to tell you about. Ted cruzs numbers arent that much better but the stop trump crowd needs him to do well tomorrow. For them its the lesser of two evil situation. Some encouraging news for trump himself. Nearly twothirds of republicans are behind him on one important issue, possibly the most important issue when it comes to clevelands gathering in three months. That is if no gop president ial candidate wins a majority of delegates before the convention, the one with the most votes should be the partys nominee. Donald trumps next stop is buffalo. Thats where we find jacob
rascon. Jacob, whats the scene like up there in buffalo . Reporter hes ahead by the widest margin so far of the primary season but hes campaigning as if its neck in neck. Thats because he not only wants to win, of course, he wants to mathematically wipe cruz off the map. He knows if he can take all the delegates or shut out cruz, it will become mathematically impossible for cruz to secure the nomination before the convention, just like cruz has been talking about how kasich cant do that either. Weve been talking to a lot of folks here. There are 10,000 people expected here and the Police Presence is massive, of course. A lot of them have those special handcuffs all ready. They wont accept any criminal activity. So why, why trump is talking a lot about the corrupt system, he calls it. You told me earlier you agree with that. Why . What do you mean why . Because its we the people dont end up voting getting our own president in the white house. Select rich people get the president in and thats not the way it should be. We, the people should be getting the president into the white house. Its fair to say that a lot of folks here a lot of them are excited. Many people we talk to have never voted ever. Others say they voted democrat and switched over. This really is trump country. Weve never seen support like weve seen here all across new york. Chris. Going now to ted cruz whos in maryland today, he is campaigning ahead of next weeks primary. That gives you a sense of his shot here in new york. At least his chances there. The texas senator is polling in a distant third in maryland, trailing frontrunner donald trump by almost 30 points. Joining me from towson, maryland, where ted cruz just wrapped up a town hall is nbcsHallie Jackson. Hallie, we always read the tea leaves of where a candidate is up next to an election. We kind of know how ted cruz thinks hes going to do in new york tomorrow. Yeah, and where his head is at, especially considering tomorrow night ted cruz will not be in new york, hell be a couple of hours north of us in philadelphia. Significant that he is here in maryland and not anywhere in the empire state, as you mentioned. He was here just a couple of minutes ago, walked out. It was a pretty rowdy crowd. They seemed fired up for cruz. A smaller room but hundreds of supporters who were booing donald trump at every mention, chris. Carly fiorina is back out on the trail. She has not been seen in, no, she wasnt out with him then although she was a surrogate for him in wisconsin where cruz was successful and doing well in that state. So cruz continuing to hit these main themes of his stump speech, jobs, freedom and security. Hes hoping that will be
effective in maryland and in pennsylvania, where an aide says they can still pick up a number of delegates, acknowledging that the media narrative has become unfavorable to cruz as hes competing in these northeastern states where hes not seen as a natural fit. That said, the campaign is looking to may 3rd in indiana. That could be a date that is a battleground. Cruz has called maryland a battleground and other states as well but its a place where theres a moderate conservative, a more industrial midwestern state and the stop Trump Movement could jump in and try to help. You talk to folks out here and people in maryland seem to be excited that they are part of a republican primary that could make a difference again and could actually help sway the nomination or at least contribute to a candidates momentum one way or another. Important caveat, though, a big uphill battle for cruz. You look at polling and donald trump in pennsylvania and maryland is up by double digits. 16 points and 20 points, so cruz has a way to go, chris. Hallie jackson, thank you very much. Ted cruz heads into tomorrows New York Primary with some momentum after securing all 14 of wyomings delegates on saturday, cutting into Donald Trumps delegate lead. Could that all come undone in the next 24 hours . Joining me with his break down the delegate math is nbc news Political Editor mark murray. Mark, the delegate rules for each state have been different and distinct and bewildering and confusing. Give us a quick rundown on what the new york rules are. The new york rules are if you end up getting 50 more statewide and also in every single of new yorks 27 Congressional Districts, you can win all 95 delegates that are up for grabs. I think everyone realizes that donald trump is going to do very well tomorrow in new york. The only question is how much. I have him projected about getting anywhere between 75 and 85 of new yorks 95 delegates. The way for ted cruz and for john kasich to really keep donald trump below 95 and all 95
is to be able to hold him down at a Congressional District here or there, keep him below 50 . If theyre able to do that, theyll be able to steal a handful of delegates. And so my understanding is if they can win a few Congressional Districts and keep him under that 95, people are expecting hell win big. Its part of the reason weve seen kasich and cruz going to places you dont normally associate with republican primaries, the bronx, for example. Thats because those Congressional Districts have very, very few republicans. They can almost meet face to face every voter and those voters count for so much more because every Congressional District, no matter how many actual voting republicans it has has an equal number of delegates. Thats exactly right. I dont think we have a really didnt idea of how these republicans will come out in the bronx and another democratic areas in new york precisely because the polling, there hasnt been a big sample of republicans in new york. Theres also some ability to be able to steal a delegate here or there in some of theCongressional Districts that border around vermont, which is not normal fertile republican territory. But chris, every single delegate ends up mattering. If donald trump is able to win 85 to 95 of new yorks delegates, hes going to go down from where he needs to win 61 of remaining delegates to hit that 1237 magic number, if hes able to get all 85 or all n95, hes able to bring that down to 57 , maybe 56 , so the math is incredibly important for trump. Maybe more important of the april 26th contest of pennsylvania, rhode island, delaware and maryland to be able to drag and put that percentage maybe even to 50 where getting to 1237 becomes a 5050 proposition. All right, mark murray, thank you very much. For morale analysis, tim carney, senior Political Columnist for the Washington Examiner and john nichols, coauthor of People Get Ready to fight
against a jobless economy joins me. Tim, let me ask you this. Were looking at trump up 30 points here in new york and you can say hes from here, hes been a larger than life figure in new york state before he was a National Figure and it makes a certain kind of sense. Up and down the eastern seaboard, delaware, connecticut, all these places, whats your understanding of the regional predilictions . You just named a handful of democratic states where the republican is a minority subpopulation. If you go to staten island, the recent column i wrote was talking to a couple cops who live in staten island. White new york cops from staten island. Its almost a constitutional mandate that they support trump. And some people are thinking its these formerly industrial towns. A lot of it this is all its all identity politics, whether youre elite, working class,
black, white, its all identity politics and trump is the guy who is so outside the political class. Cruz could have been the guy appealing to these voters if trump didnt exist. He is so outside of the political class. While cruz comes from he comes from texas, he comes from a protestant background, a protestant preacherism. None of that is stuff that i as a new yorker was ever exposed to. So is he one of us or not . Yeah, first of all, tim, i couldnt agree more with the idea that all politics are identity politics. It all comes down to that. The idea of cruz as sort of foreign, culturally, in certain ways his religious backgrounds, even his cadence, his delivery, its not what he is selling that they are not buying on the eastern seaboard and in new york. Absolute lly not. Even in places where hes got high marks for doing well, like
wisconsin, where i come from, he lost rural counties, he had one pocket of big support in a suburban area driven by talk radio. So where we really are going to start to find things out about cruz comes in this primary in new york and then a week from now in all of these others because, you know, cruz has set himself up as the alternative and hes fighting like heck for wyoming and places like this. This is john kasichs moment. Its not that kasich is going to win anything big. But if kasich comes second in new york if that were to happen. And if kasich is the one who actually plucked out some delegates. We just had that whole conversation and didnt bring him up. But if hes the one who registers second and then goes down into, say, maryland and some of these other places and registered second, maybe connecticut, that could change a lot of cruzs trajectory. Tim, you, and i john had a conversation right around the
wisconsin primary. One of the things we were talking about was the distinctness of the antiTrump Movement in wisconsin, extremely mobilized, conservative movement, constitutionally connected to scott walker and talk radio and the milwaukee suburbs. The question is is this repli replicable. Is essentially geography destiny here . Is that what determines momentum . Yes. The word momentum, going into wisconsin and coming out of it, i was worried about the word momentum because its usually a meaningless term in politics. What we had was a couple of states where it was good for cruz. Where momentum could have meaning is if people who say im antitrump, im going to pick the winner, where you could see if people are moving from kasich to cruz, that would represent momentum. Momentum is when your Previous Movement aids your future movement. But thats not happening if, as
john said, kasich does better than cruz in new york. In my Congressional District in maryland, i could see kasich winning my Congressional District. So if im an antitrump voter in suburban maryland, im thinking, wait, if i want to stop trump but i prefer cruz, maybe i go for kasich so thats where momentum matters. Is cruz really defined as the antitrump in other states as he was defined in wisconsin. And in some senses, the next two weeks, new york and then into the northeast, delaware, connecticut, maryland and pennsylvania are sort of the they have been the justification for kasichs continued of course. Status in the race since he won ohio because no one thought he was going to do that well in other places. Now its in the place you know, he was born in pennsylvania. Cruz is also approaching the point that kasich has, which is hes mathematically eliminated from actually winning 1237 outright before the convention. Look, cruz has always been a
place holder. And i know he doesnt like that thought and his supporters actually are deeply committed. Theyre impassioned and theyre working hard. But the fact of the matter is cruz is no more attractive to the republican establishment than trump is. In fact maybe less in some ways. And he has geographical regions where he is very unlikely to take off. And so what youre really seeing something now is getting very close to 1964 where moderate republicans wanted to stop Barry Goldwater so they had, you know, lodge and then rockefeller and then scranton and then they thought about nixon and they kept popping some alternative up. At the end of the day, none of it got enough traction. I think we have to start to acknowledge the reality that donald trump could over the next two weeks get an awfully lot closer to the nomination. Things are going to look a lot different after tomorrow and after the week after that. Tim carney, john nichols, as always, gentlemen, thank you very much. Still ahead, Bernie Sanderscloses in on Hillary Clinton putting the National Democratic race at least from the polling perspective in a dead heat. More from the latest nbc news poll is next. Why do so many businesses rely on the Us Postal Service . Because when they ship with us, their business becomes our business. Thats why we make more ecommerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the cotry. Here, there, everywhere. United states Postal Service priority you our cosmetics line was a hit. The orders were rushing in. I could feel our deadlines racing towards us. We didnt need a loan. We needed shortterm funding fast. Building 18 homes in 4 ½ months . That was a leap. But i knew i could rely on American Express to help me buy those building materials. Amex helped me buy the inventory i needed. Our amex helped us fill the orders. Just like that. Another step on the journey. Will you be ready when growth presents itself . Realize your buying power at open. Com
were always looking for ways to speed up your Car Insurance search. Heres the latest. Problem is, we havent figured out how to reverse it. For now, just log on to compare. Com. Plug in some simple info and get up to 50 free quotes. Choose the lowest and hit purchase. Now. If youll excuse me, im late for an important function. Compare. Com. Saving humanity from high insurance rates. Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders out on the campaign trail today. Clinton just wrapped a Campaign Event and sanders will hold one later tonight. Recent polls show clinton with a doubledigit lead on sanders in new york but a new national nbc news wall street journal poll shows sanders trailing clinton by just two points among democratic primary voters. For more, let me bring in Kristen Welker, whos covering the Clinton Campaign from new york city. Kristen, if youre the clinton
campaign, youre not paying a ton of attention to National Polling at this point . All right. It looks like Kristen Welkers sound is not working so lets go over to casey hukasie hunt who covering the Sanders Campaign. They did a 48hour odyssey in rome. They were in Prospect Park right by where i live, theyll have a whole lot of people tonight but to me it encapsulates the issue for sanders, the ability to turn out huge crowds, tremendous depth of support but still trailing behind clinton in new york. Reporter thats right, chris, that is going to be his challenge. Hell have a rally tonight in Long Island City. They waited until the end of this primary campaign to start having these big rallies. When we first got here, he was coming off that big wisconsin
win. Everybody thought he could roll into new york and start to move the numbers here the way hes moved them in other states where he spent a lot of time and that just didnt happen. Hillary clinton ground him down in a couple of news cycles last week and of course sanders went to that giant rally in Washington Square park and we started to see, okay, this is why sanders has come as far as he has. But youve seen him shift his Campaign Style over the course of the last 48 hours as he tries to win here. He spent the last couple of days kind of wandering around in the streets of new york city, which is not really a form of campaigning that sanders has traditionally engaged in. Hes been a guy whos much more comfortable either in a formal interview setting or obviously on stage at these massive rallies giving whats essentially the same stump speech, although it has a couple of different lengths. Theres a 40minute version, an hourlong version, but fundamentally the same speech and hasnt often engaged in diners. Here hes walking in the streets of midtown earlier today, so a little switch for them as they try to figure out what is the best way really to start to have that same impact that they have had elsewhere. The challenge for sanders, some of this is going to be about expectations. If he does come closer than many of these public polls are showing, and he alluded to that on the today show, then he could come out of here with a little bit more energy. On