First quarter haul with 18 million. Of course, with numbers like that, both men can comfortably pose a threat staying in the race throughout the next year. Our big question today is, just how fragile is joe bidens early lead . Joining me now, steve kornacki, Washington Post senior political reporter erin blake, former adviser for Hillary Clintons campaign, adrian elrod and republican strategist and former aides to jeb bush and mitt romney, matt gorman. Weve got a tweet from bidens pollster. Im hearing in my ear, too, that we have new numbers from the quinnipiac poll that similarly show a pretty difficult past week for joe biden. I think well try to get those up on the screen. Weve got them. We should have them right here. Great. Take it away. Out in the last 30 seconds. Quinnipiac poll, national, democrats, post debate. Joe biden. We saw him in yesterdays poll from cnn at 22 . Bidens campaign taking issue with that. Heres another national poll. Biden at 22 after this debate. Kamala harris, surging to second place. 20 within two points of the former Vice President. Elizabeth warren, 14 . We saw her around there in that poll as well. Sanders, 13 . Buttigieg, 4 . Kasie, this looks almost exactly like that cnn poll yesterday. So now we have had two multiday polls that have come back since that debate. There was a third. A harris ex poll that was more favorable to the former Vice President but you have quinnipiac and cnn now within 24 hours of each other, both showing a steep drop for joe biden, a steep rise for Kamala Harris, and a democratic race that looks very different now than it did. This is the cnn poll from yesterday. Than it did before this debate. Steve, how much credit do you give to this critique from biden adviser who tweeted, hey, this is a holiday week. People are already tend not to pick up their phones. Perhaps this is not necessarily the best read. Is there anything to that . Well, the answer is, well see. There will be more polls. Lets see if it changes. Heres what i can tell you. Weve seen since that debate ended. There was polling conducted jointly by Morning Consult and 538 right after that second debate and they showed a drop for joe biden. Right after, i should say, that first and second night of debating. That showed a drop for joe biden. Morning consult conducted its own poll in the 24hour period from the end of that debate thursday night that biden was in until the end of friday night. A snap poll. 24hour period. They showed a drop of five points there for biden. A rise of six points for Kamala Harris. Yesterday as we said, cnn came in with their poll conducted over the weekend. Showed this drop for biden, this rise for harris. Here again, just in the last two minutes, quinnipiac. Theirs extended. Steep drop for biden. Steep rise for Kamala Harris. Getting to the point where theres a preponderance of evidence that this was a bad week for the former Vice President and a very good week for Kamala Harris. That doesnt mean its the end of anything. Its july. But weve seen a couple of developments here. For sure. Great points, steve. Matt, if you are the Biden Campaign, how nervous are you about these numbers . If im the Biden Campaign, im also looking at the numbers among africanamerican numbers. His numbers slip significantly among them. Kamala is in second. His path to the nomination runs through africanamerican voters especially in south carolina. Mayor pete talking about the south bend shooting and, obviously, kamalas attack on him were geared toward africanamerican voters. So im looking at that, if im them, and i dont think its a bigger problem for him, long term, but its like that old movie from the predator. If it bleeds, you can kill it. Hes given his opponents a template into how they can defeat him. Im interested in knowing how many of our viewers are predator fans. The problem with some of these polls is the sample size, especially the cross towns are so small we dont know how many africanamericans were sampled. Its productive to look at the nonwhite sample because thats bigger. One question in the cnn poll caught my attention. Which candidate did they think was going to be best on the issue of Race Relations . Kamala harris led joe biden by 29 to 16, even though she was behind in the broader poll. Even as we need more evidence to suggest that the Biden Campaign has lost its high level of support, thats a good indication there may be some hemorrhaging as far as that support goes. Adrian, it seems like one thing, the Biden Campaign has been relying on what theyve long viewed as a deep relationship with the Africanamerican Community, its leaders, his nonbusing related record on civil rights. Youve seen people like jim clyburn defending him. Is there a risk that that, what has been a the bedrock of the africanamerican Voting Community slips away from him if he sort of doesnt get this narrative back under control . Yeah, i think so, kasie. Just because and we all know this here. Just because youre africanamerican doesnt mean its a monolithic vote. You have young africanamericans, older africanamericans. Im more interested to see where his number goes with younger africanamerican voters. Thats always been a point for him that its not his support among those voters has not always been as strong as it has been for older africanamerican voters which is why you saw cbc leadership come out and defend him but not some of the younger members of congress or younger leaders in the Africanamerican Community come out and defend him. I want to Say Something really quickly, too, about the Biden Campaign sort of pushing back on some of these polls. John is bidens pollster. One of Hillary Clintons pollsters, one of the best in the business. He brings up a very good point. Its a weird weekend. Its like, going into a holiday. So the polling is not quite on track as it normally would be. However, when you are seeing a consistent drop across several polls, right, were not just talking about one or two isolated polls, its across the board. The big question for biden and his team is, how can they stop the bleeding, and i think a second debate, a much stronger performance in a second debate can mitigate further loss. This is echoing the gop race in that we saw the debates really move the numbers, which wasnt necessarily an assumption we went into that with. Steve kornacki, you wanted to jump in on this question about race . Its true, by the way, you look in the polls, the subgroups are often small. A lot of margin of error. But inside this cnn poll we mentioned here, two things to keep an eye on here. Among selfdescribed liberals, notice who is now in first place in their poll. Kamala harris number one among liberals in their poll. So thats a significant jump for her. Is that white liberals and liberals of color, steve . All liberals . Right. This is where we start piecing together a couple different polls out there. In the cnn poll were just looking at liberals here. The Morning Consult poll which i mentioned that came out right after the debate, they narrowed it down to white liberals and had Kamala Harris surging. Basically almost tripling her support with white liberals. So if you have Kamala Harris if you say liberals and white liberals in particular, a spike for her there. And then you look at this, the africanamerican vote, cnn has her now at 24 . Weve seen her in Single Digits before the debate among africanamericans in other polls. That is, if she has tracks with those two groups thats the obama coalition. Exactly. That was the coalition. He was competitive with Hillary Clinton in 2007. You saw numbers that looked not too different from this in 2007. Obama versus Hillary Clinton. And then when obama won the Iowa Caucuses in 2008, in part because of white liberals and the support he got from them in iowa, suddenly among africanamerican voters when a competitive race became a blowout for obama. A twostep thing. Quick last word, matt. Does should the president s team be concerned about that . Look, i think they need to watch kamala very closely. In the short term, she obviously catapulted herself into the first tier. Took a knife to joe biden on national tv. However, in the long term, with her waffling on health care when it comes to eliminating private insurance, not the first time this happened to her. Deja vu all over again. A study came out from a data firm called deep root and what they said was swing voters tuned in to the debates as intensely as democratic primary voters. Gone are the days you can say whatever you want to win the primary and pivot to the general. Times are very changed. Everyone is paying attention. Everyone is watching now. That is a very good point. There is no theres also going to be no losing the primary to win the general steve kornacki, aaron blake, matt gorman, thank you. More breaking news, the house ways and Means Committee has filed a lawsuit against the irs and Treasury Department in a new effort to get President Trumps tax returns. Previous attempts have been blocked by the treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin who defied subpoenas. He claimed House Democrats had no legislative purpose to request them. Joining me now, nbc News White House correspondent kelly odonnell. Kelly, im interested to know from you whether the white house has responded to this or not. But this does seem to be theyve been careful in laying out this case at the ways and Means Committee, but the law is very clear. It says the Treasury Department shall provide these returns. Shall as opposed to may in the art of understanding law. Shall would mean you must and may would be, it would be optional. Weve reached out to the white house. Weve not heard a response from the official government offices but the president s personal legal team has said it will fight what they call president ial harassment in court. We have seen in an ongoing effort for the white house to distance themselves from some of this because this wouldnt, of course, involve some of the president s outside legal counsel, and they have tried to brand each of these instances as an ongoing harassment of the president. The republicans from the same committee that has filed this suit also referred to this as a dangerous course. The administration has said there has not been a legislative purpose for the request of these tax returns, and for most individuals in the country, your private information is guarded and protected by the irs and by extension the laws. Here, the committee believes that it is important to have oversight on understanding if the president s returns have been audited in the proper way because both president and Vice President while in office do go through an audit. The president has said repeatedly that hed be happy to share some of his Financial Information and points everyone to a Financial Disclosure which he does provide but insists an audit is under way, therefore, he cannot provide them. That is his choice to provide them, its not a requirement. Weve seen a history where president s normally provide this. Were inching toward a one of the ways here that the democrats have tried to prosecute a case on a range of issues, not just the events of the Mueller Report but here in the area of getting oversight of the president s taxes as a way to keep pressure on the white house. Kasie . We could learn potentially limitless amount from those returns. Kelly odonnell, thank you, as always. Great to see you. Still ahead protests across the country to close the camps. Americans taking a stand across the detainment of migrants in america. Plus, ill speak live to the chairman of the hispanic caucus, congressman Joaquin Castro. He got a firsthand look at the conditions inside some of the facilities being protested. And he snuck a camera in to show the world what he witnessed. First, the president s Independence Day spectacle in washington. He is rolling out tanks and firing up air force one, triggering fears that the usually apolitical celebration will turn into a grand old political rally. 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Reputation defender ensures that when people check you out, theyll find more of the truth, not trash. If you have search results that are wrong or unfair, visit reputationdefender. Com or call 18778668555. It was july 2017 when donald trump, just months into his presidency, visited france on pa bastille day. He attended a military parade. He was impressed. The military might, the soldiers, the tanks. He wanted his own parade. Two years later, it looks like hes getting his wish. The Lincoln Memorial is being prepped for a july 4th spectacular, a possible air force one flyover, and you guessed it, thanks. Theres not only concern about potential partisan nature of the president s event but those tanks have proven tricky for the commander in chief. Here he was yesterday. Were going to have some tanks stationed outside. Got to be careful with the tanks because the roads have a tendency not to like heavy tanks so we have to put them in certain areas. We have the brandnew sherman tanks, the brandnew abram tanks, and we have some incredible equipment, military equipment on display. Brandnew. And were very proud of it. So a couple issues here for the president. One, sherman tanks have not been in active Service Since the 1950s. Problem two, the tanks that are coming weigh about 60 tons each, and there is very real concern they could do major damage to the capitol city streets, bridges and, of course, our countrys famed national mall. Joining me now, Washington PostSenior National affairs correspondent, jewuliet and mar jacobson. Were going to talk with mark in a second about the tanks, but, first, the concerns potentially here about partisanship on what is typically, you know, a patriotic holiday celebrated by all americans. Kellyanne conway this morning insisted that it would be apolitical. Take a look. Why is the Republican National committee giving out tickets to supporters of the president . Why are this is a public event. Its open to the public. The public is welcome to come and celebrate our great country. The greatest democracy. The constitution, all the amendments, not just the First Amendment that seems to only interest you only. The second amendment, all the others. But really just the birth of this country, the greatest democracy that ever lived. Im not going to allow you to politicize it. Fair to say that it is open to the public. However, there is this vip section right up front where, you know, typically anyone would be able to be in that area of the mall to watch the fireworks if you got there early enough. Now the rnc has gotten tickets and the dnc tells Peter Alexander they havent received an allotment of tickets for that area. It kind of undermines this argument. Sure, the fact theres limited vip seat chicago we reported on last week shows you that, really, that there are some you know, there are some political elements. Now the rnc, we checked with them today. Theyre arguing in the same way that, if a democrat was in the white house, they would give tickets to their party. That these things happen for white House Holiday tours, for things like that. Thats accurate, although, again, those are where you have limits on who can be here. This traditionally has been an entirely open event, and its now being modified to, you know, to have limited access in part of the mall. And we are, of course, going to get a speech from the president. I mean, its hard to argue that any speech in this kind of a forum would be an apolitical one. Well, one of the things, it really will matter what he says, whether he refers to, for example, any of the democrats currently running for president in 2020. Whether he talks about polling. Those are all comments that could trigger this provision where under federal appropriations law you cant use Public Resources for political purposes. And if they deem that part of this is a political speech, the campaign trump