Transcripts For MSNBCW MTP Daily 20160419 : vimarsana.com

State home at some points in their lives and all three of them made their way through new york city today. Youre voting for yourself, what does that mean . Its a proud moment. Its a great moment. And who would have thought. Its just an honor. It feels great and im so excited about both campaigning here in new york, voting here in new york, and i love new york. And this has been a joy during the last two weeks, to be here, all over the state. Secretary clinton implied she could wrap up the whole nomination today. Im afraid shes going to be disappointed. For republicans, the question isnt whether or not trump wins, its whether he wins big enough to take all of the states 95 delegates. Trump will be in new york tonight, but ted cruz and john kasich have already moved on. Theyre already in pennsylvania. One wonders if they should have been there last week. Right now, theyre in pittsburgh this afternoon. At least kasich was, and he kept his expectations for tonight extremely low. How are you hoping to do in new york tonight . Well, we hope we get some delegates. Well see. We really want to get a few delegates. I cant make a prediction, but we worked hard up there and hopefully well come out of there with some delegate momentum. For the stop trump folks, the name of the game tonight is to keep trump below 50 in at least as many Congressional District says as they can. They havent made a very good effort to do it. And to get all 95 delegates, a candidate has been above 50 statewide and in each Congressional District. But you could argue the stop Trump Movement stopped short in new york. Team kasich and team cruz spent just under 500,000 a piece in the state with the largest media market in the world at least in the country. Its like pennies. For that, they may get five delegates each. Trump is way ahead in the polls after spending just 67,000. Trump campaign didnt spend a dime on tv in new york. Compare that to wisconsin. Is this the end of the line for trump . Or should they have been moving on last week into the states that vote next week . Well get into that. As it stands now, donald trump needs to win 61 of remaining delegates to hit the magic number before the convention. If he wins anywhere close to the 95 delegates at stake tonight, then he could parlay that and he parlays that into winning next week, sweeps them all, say by doubledigits, the number hell need to hit 1,237, the percentage hell need will be at 50 , and thats very doable. For cruz, by next tuesday, a first ballot win could become mathematically impossible. On the democratic side, its a similar similar. A clinton win tonight would make the delegate math difficult for sanders. Clinton is leading the new york polls. Sanders is trying to remain optimistic. He needs 33 of the pledged and remaining super delegates. Sanders needs 27 of those, Hillary Clinton needs 33 . If she sweeps the april 26 contest, her magic percentage goes down to 22 . So it begs the question, what is Bernie Sanders end game here . What does he do if he ends up losing new york by double digits tonight . Our team is fanned out across the state. Harlem, queens, and buffalo. So lets start with chris jansing. Hillary clinton and sanders have been no stranger to the party as they courted voters of color. Clinton is hoping lightning strikes twice and she gets a repeat of her win in 2008. What have you seen, whats turnout look like . Reporter well, turnout looks really good here. There are eight different election districts. You can see theres four tables, four tables. Some of the afterwork crowd is starting to come out. But weve had almost 1500 voters today. Longtime poll workers tell me this is an incredible turnout. You want to know how democratic harlem is . Barack obama won here by 93 and 95 , only 6 of the registered voters are republican. So, chuck, that pretty much tells you what you need to know. What does Hillary Clinton want to do here . Look, shes very well known here, this is the place just a couple of blocks away, where after he left the presidency, president clinton opened his office. Still has his post president ial offices here, hes got a lease through 2020. When you talk to supporters, they talk about what the clintons have meant to this community. All politics, is local, right . So weve seen this renaissance with restaurants, with housing. And when you talk to people who are clinton supporters, they are passionate about them. Having said that, there are also some Bernie Sanders supporters, we talked to and theyre not all college kids. Weve met some couples who are split, but it is a heavily democratic area. This is really the kind of place where Hillary Clinton wants to get the margins really wide. She wants a resounding win in places like this over Bernie Sanders because its up in the more rural areas where he is more neck and neck with her. So really the question here is, how big is the margin for Hillary Clinton, how much pressure then does that put on Bernie Sanders, as you say, to think about where his Campaign Goes going forward, chuck. Absolutely. And its an example of what has been the achilles heel of the Sanders Campaign. Struggling in the more diverse areas whenever hes gone head to head with Hillary Clinton. Chris jansing in harlem, thanks so much. Now to the birth place of donald trump, the borough that he grew up in. Jacob soboroff joins me now from Bay Side High School in queens, new york. Should be good trump territory in general. Is it . What have you seen . Reporter yeah, and chuck, in fact, we scooted from Bay Side High School over to ps 146, in howard beach, which is by the Rockaway Beach section of new york. It was hit very hard by Hurricane Sandy and it turns out of that 51 council districts, only three of them are represented by republicans and this is one of them. What were looking at here should how much turnout donald trump will get. In each district if he gets over 50 hell take home those three delegates. If he gets over 50 statewide, hell take home all 95 delegates. And it will be easier for him to get to the 1,237 come july in the national convention. This is where ballots are scanned. As we walk over here, ellen, dont leave me yet. I got chuck todd here. This is ellen, one of the ballot scanners and we were talking earlier about a trend were seeing at this polling place that could be critical to Donald Trumps success here. You were saying youve seen some democrats want to come and put their ballots in here and vote for donald trump, but they cant, is that right . Correct. Reporter and why is that . Because if youre a democrat, you cant vote republican. Reporter its a closed primary . Yes. So what are they saying . Theyre saying we want to vote for trump, and we say, you cant, youre a democrat. They say, were not voting for anyone. So they put in a void ballot. Reporter thats really interesting here in new york, especially if donald trump wants to walk out of here with the entire slate of delegates, versus 70, 80, in the 60 range, and it could be critical to his success or failure, or i guess limited success as you were saying earlier, here in new york tonight. Well, its a big reminder that these are closed primaries on both sides. Tougher for sanders, tougher for trump, if you look at previous patterns. Jacob tony in queens, thanks so much. Lets go to western new york and buffalo, with tony dokoupil. Upstate, we expect trump to do well, but we also expect sanders, that this could be where he does where hes able to win some Congressional Districts in either western new york or upstate new york. What are you seeing. Reporter thats right. Im in a Unitarian Church that accepts everybody regardless of religious background. But just down the stairs is the polling station where not all Political Parties are welcome. You have to be a registered democrat or republican if you want to play in this game today. This is where the ballots are being inserted. We dont want to cause a kerfuffle here. There you go, sir. Whats fascinating here, Bernie Sanders should have a tremendous turnout. There are signs and a murl outside. Theres an organic grocery store, people outside with Bernie Sanders shirts on. But when they come in the door, many of them are registered independents. They cant participate here. So Bernie Sanders is losing vote after vote, at least two dozen in this location, according to laura, the longsuffering poll worker behind me who has to turn people away. We asked how does it feel doing that. Shes upset by it. We also spoke to the supervisor for buffalo county. Hes a hillary supporter. Hillary is typically the one who benefits from lower turnout. He doesnt want to see an open one where you can come from any party. But he would like to see the registration process brought up to maybe 30 days before, so maybe some changes next time around. Tony, thank you very much. Were also getting our first look with some of the exit polls coming out of new york. Steve kornacki will help me break that down in just a few minutes. So stay with us. Quick break, real exits after the break, first ones youll see. Dont go anywhere. After this campaign, with so much ugly divisive rhetoric, were going to need some unity. Because america doesnt grow by building walls. We grow by breaking down barriers that hold americans back, so we all rise together. At pg e, we believe solar should be accessible to everyone. Our partnership with habitat for humanity allows us to provide the benefits of solar power to the types of customers who need it most. Pg e provided all of the homes here with solar panels. The solar savings can mean a lot, especially for lowincome families. With the savings that i am getting from the solar panels, its going to help me to have a Better Future for my children. To learn how you can save energy and money with solar, go to pge. Com solar. Together, were building a better california. Breaking news right now, we have the very first look at the exit polling. Early exit polls coming out of new york, according to these nbc news exit poll results, 68 said the Democratic Campaign has energized them. 27 said the campaign has divided the Democratic Party. On the republican side, 57 said its divided the party. 3 democrats feeling better about their campaign than republicans. Perhaps not a surprise. Well have more on the numbers and youre watching special coverage, were in the midst of a sevenweek sprint to the end of the primary season. Well be right back. Well, were going to start spreading the news. We have our first round of New York Primary exit polls. To shed light on the data, heres my colleague steve kornacki. And on the republican side, its an incredibly small sample, so were being very careful with it. And the reason for that, its skewed a little bit toward new york city, but take a look at what were seeing here, headlines from both parties. Every primary night weve seen this in the Democratic Party. 58 of new york democrats called themselves very or somewhat liberal in 2008, that number pushing 70 eight years later. This is also something were seeing on the republican side. Eight years ago, 2008, 56 of republicans called them very or somewhat conservative in the state. That number now over 70 , calling themselves some norm of conservative in new york. We can also look at, this is interesting, there was a lot of negativity in the Democratic Campaign in new york. Bernie sanders at one point calling Hillary Clinton unqualified. Has this campaign we asked democrats, energized your party. 68 of them say the Sanders Campaign has energized the party. Only 27 say its divided the party. Very different results for the republican party. 57 saying its divided the party. And heres a new york specific question, the role of wall street. This has come up on the democratic side. Does wall street help or hurt the u. S. Economy . Overwhelmingly, voters saying it hurts the u. S. Economy. Even on the republican side, this is interesting, a small majority saying wall street, wall street a major part of the economy in new york, saying it Health Authorities the new york economy. We dont have the graphic for it, but it looks like Bernie Sanders supporters in particular saying that wall street hurts the u. S. Economy. Thats a fascinating but again, even in new york state, majority in both parties, weve seen this time and again, this economic anger message, however we ask it in each subsequent poll, it always turns out to be both parties kind of are starting to share that view in some form or another and here we are again. Thats right, chuck. Steve, thank you very much. Well see you later in the evening with more numbers. Let me break down more of the New York Primary. We have Lawrence Odonnell here host of last word. We have nbc political analyst and Republican Campaign attorney ben ginsburg and nicole wallace, former Senior Adviser to john mccain and president bush. Can we put out an apb for the stop Trump Movement . No. Im trying to figure out where it is, its not here in new york. Because its such an expensive media market and they made the tactical decision to harbor resources for further down the road. Now theres less road to harbor the resources for, but its the classic decision that you make in a state where for a variety of reasons, this isnt the place to try to fight this fight. Nicole, there was so much, call it exuberance in this movement, the day after wisconsin. And i think the ted Cruz Campaign, you talked to some supporters of it, you get the sense that they too know that they maybe had some irrational exuberance to borrow a famous phrase. They came here and maybe now regret it. Yeah, listen, i think the real stop Trump Movement was the 15 republicans who ran against trump, and i think they ended in piles of dust is a pretty good prediction of how this movement now organized around the very idea of stopping trump, is going to end. I think the Cruz Campaign sort of derived, as you said, an irrational degree of optimism. Their game is the second ballot, peeling off delegates should trump not arrive at 1,237. Theyre not in the game to beat trump in the primary contests. But, ben, you know this stuff better than anybody. So were sitting here now, trump looks like he may get, lets say 80. A bad night would be 80 for him at this point, of the 95. Can i just say, imagine that two weeks ago tonight . Right. And follow it up, theres not a state hell lose next week, at least as it stands right now, because the stop Trump Movement, they should have been in pennsylvania last week. They should have been in maryland last week. Two states that they could have made progress and i think strategically made an error. Well, what they tried to do, i think, is to not play the statewide visions of winning the popular vote and gone into particular on one hand, smart, right . On one hand, smart, because you dont get many delegates statewide in new york or in any of those states next time. If you go in and do the granular work with delegates, thats where youre actually going to be able to get some territory. And the stop Trump Movement had a great weekend in georgia and wyoming on the delegate count. Right. But i guess i go back to, maryland republicans are a lot Like Northern virginia republicans. You cant start this tomorrow. No. Right . I mean, this is what feels weird about why the stop trump they sort of only think week to week . Maybe you dont see it and its really out there is, i think, the best case for it. But yes, you have to start early with delegates. Thats what the Cruz Campaign is showing by picking up these victories in the states. Its what the Trump Campaign has now realized. So the thrust of all of this is going to change a good deal in the conventions down the road too. But and im sure well hear a lot tonight from you and i especially wait for indiana. Right. Indiana . Listen, i think theres been so much analysis of the race, as people wish it were, not as it actually is. And as it actually is, weve sat here together now week after week after week, talking about trumps dominance. I mean, the voters are responding to him more than theyre responding to this stop Trump Movement. And the hysteria still lies very much so in the establishment, in the conservative media, and in the conservative elite. If this election has taught us anything, theyre not the deciders. To borrow a word from where does this go from here . Do you still have trump in the stop Trump Movement this is not a year for faith. I abandoned faith in 2015. You atheist now youre going to prove everybody right. They have no faith. I found god this year. I remember the morning the newt poll came out and donald trump was at 12. And we can find a shot of me saying, you dont think hes going to go higher than 12, do you . But faith is not something ive brought to this process. But weve never seen this before. Its a movement of republicans that say, if this person comes out of the convention, we will work against him. But will they vote for hillary . What do they do . The day after the Congressional District<\/a> says as they can. They havent made a very good effort to do it. And to get all 95 delegates, a candidate has been above 50 statewide and in each Congressional District<\/a>. But you could argue the stop Trump Movement<\/a> stopped short in new york. Team kasich and team cruz spent just under 500,000 a piece in the state with the largest media market in the world at least in the country. Its like pennies. For that, they may get five delegates each. Trump is way ahead in the polls after spending just 67,000. Trump campaign didnt spend a dime on tv in new york. Compare that to wisconsin. Is this the end of the line for trump . Or should they have been moving on last week into the states that vote next week . Well get into that. As it stands now, donald trump needs to win 61 of remaining delegates to hit the magic number before the convention. If he wins anywhere close to the 95 delegates at stake tonight, then he could parlay that and he parlays that into winning next week, sweeps them all, say by doubledigits, the number hell need to hit 1,237, the percentage hell need will be at 50 , and thats very doable. For cruz, by next tuesday, a first ballot win could become mathematically impossible. On the democratic side, its a similar similar. A clinton win tonight would make the delegate math difficult for sanders. Clinton is leading the new york polls. Sanders is trying to remain optimistic. He needs 33 of the pledged and remaining super delegates. Sanders needs 27 of those, Hillary Clinton<\/a> needs 33 . If she sweeps the april 26 contest, her magic percentage goes down to 22 . So it begs the question, what is Bernie Sanders<\/a> end game here . What does he do if he ends up losing new york by double digits tonight . Our team is fanned out across the state. Harlem, queens, and buffalo. So lets start with chris jansing. Hillary clinton and sanders have been no stranger to the party as they courted voters of color. Clinton is hoping lightning strikes twice and she gets a repeat of her win in 2008. What have you seen, whats turnout look like . Reporter well, turnout looks really good here. There are eight different election districts. You can see theres four tables, four tables. Some of the afterwork crowd is starting to come out. But weve had almost 1500 voters today. Longtime poll workers tell me this is an incredible turnout. You want to know how democratic harlem is . Barack obama won here by 93 and 95 , only 6 of the registered voters are republican. So, chuck, that pretty much tells you what you need to know. What does Hillary Clinton<\/a> want to do here . Look, shes very well known here, this is the place just a couple of blocks away, where after he left the presidency, president clinton opened his office. Still has his post president ial offices here, hes got a lease through 2020. When you talk to supporters, they talk about what the clintons have meant to this community. All politics, is local, right . So weve seen this renaissance with restaurants, with housing. And when you talk to people who are clinton supporters, they are passionate about them. Having said that, there are also some Bernie Sanders<\/a> supporters, we talked to and theyre not all college kids. Weve met some couples who are split, but it is a heavily democratic area. This is really the kind of place where Hillary Clinton<\/a> wants to get the margins really wide. She wants a resounding win in places like this over Bernie Sanders<\/a> because its up in the more rural areas where he is more neck and neck with her. So really the question here is, how big is the margin for Hillary Clinton<\/a>, how much pressure then does that put on Bernie Sanders<\/a>, as you say, to think about where his Campaign Goes<\/a> going forward, chuck. Absolutely. And its an example of what has been the achilles heel of the Sanders Campaign<\/a>. Struggling in the more diverse areas whenever hes gone head to head with Hillary Clinton<\/a>. Chris jansing in harlem, thanks so much. Now to the birth place of donald trump, the borough that he grew up in. Jacob soboroff joins me now from Bay Side High School<\/a> in queens, new york. Should be good trump territory in general. Is it . What have you seen . Reporter yeah, and chuck, in fact, we scooted from Bay Side High School<\/a> over to ps 146, in howard beach, which is by the Rockaway Beach<\/a> section of new york. It was hit very hard by Hurricane Sandy<\/a> and it turns out of that 51 council districts, only three of them are represented by republicans and this is one of them. What were looking at here should how much turnout donald trump will get. In each district if he gets over 50 hell take home those three delegates. If he gets over 50 statewide, hell take home all 95 delegates. And it will be easier for him to get to the 1,237 come july in the national convention. This is where ballots are scanned. As we walk over here, ellen, dont leave me yet. I got chuck todd here. This is ellen, one of the ballot scanners and we were talking earlier about a trend were seeing at this polling place that could be critical to Donald Trumps<\/a> success here. You were saying youve seen some democrats want to come and put their ballots in here and vote for donald trump, but they cant, is that right . Correct. Reporter and why is that . Because if youre a democrat, you cant vote republican. Reporter its a closed primary . Yes. So what are they saying . Theyre saying we want to vote for trump, and we say, you cant, youre a democrat. They say, were not voting for anyone. So they put in a void ballot. Reporter thats really interesting here in new york, especially if donald trump wants to walk out of here with the entire slate of delegates, versus 70, 80, in the 60 range, and it could be critical to his success or failure, or i guess limited success as you were saying earlier, here in new york tonight. Well, its a big reminder that these are closed primaries on both sides. Tougher for sanders, tougher for trump, if you look at previous patterns. Jacob tony in queens, thanks so much. Lets go to western new york and buffalo, with tony dokoupil. Upstate, we expect trump to do well, but we also expect sanders, that this could be where he does where hes able to win some Congressional District<\/a>s in either western new york or upstate new york. What are you seeing. Reporter thats right. Im in a Unitarian Church<\/a> that accepts everybody regardless of religious background. But just down the stairs is the polling station where not all Political Parties<\/a> are welcome. You have to be a registered democrat or republican if you want to play in this game today. This is where the ballots are being inserted. We dont want to cause a kerfuffle here. There you go, sir. Whats fascinating here, Bernie Sanders<\/a> should have a tremendous turnout. There are signs and a murl outside. Theres an organic grocery store, people outside with Bernie Sanders<\/a> shirts on. But when they come in the door, many of them are registered independents. They cant participate here. So Bernie Sanders<\/a> is losing vote after vote, at least two dozen in this location, according to laura, the longsuffering poll worker behind me who has to turn people away. We asked how does it feel doing that. Shes upset by it. We also spoke to the supervisor for buffalo county. Hes a hillary supporter. Hillary is typically the one who benefits from lower turnout. He doesnt want to see an open one where you can come from any party. But he would like to see the registration process brought up to maybe 30 days before, so maybe some changes next time around. Tony, thank you very much. Were also getting our first look with some of the exit polls coming out of new york. Steve kornacki will help me break that down in just a few minutes. So stay with us. Quick break, real exits after the break, first ones youll see. Dont go anywhere. After this campaign, with so much ugly divisive rhetoric, were going to need some unity. Because america doesnt grow by building walls. We grow by breaking down barriers that hold americans back, so we all rise together. At pg e, we believe solar should be accessible to everyone. Our partnership with habitat for humanity allows us to provide the benefits of solar power to the types of customers who need it most. Pg e provided all of the homes here with solar panels. The solar savings can mean a lot, especially for lowincome families. With the savings that i am getting from the solar panels, its going to help me to have a Better Future<\/a> for my children. To learn how you can save energy and money with solar, go to pge. Com solar. Together, were building a better california. Breaking news right now, we have the very first look at the exit polling. Early exit polls coming out of new york, according to these nbc news exit poll results, 68 said the Democratic Campaign<\/a> has energized them. 27 said the campaign has divided the Democratic Party<\/a>. On the republican side, 57 said its divided the party. 3 democrats feeling better about their campaign than republicans. Perhaps not a surprise. Well have more on the numbers and youre watching special coverage, were in the midst of a sevenweek sprint to the end of the primary season. Well be right back. Well, were going to start spreading the news. We have our first round of New York Primary<\/a> exit polls. To shed light on the data, heres my colleague steve kornacki. And on the republican side, its an incredibly small sample, so were being very careful with it. And the reason for that, its skewed a little bit toward new york city, but take a look at what were seeing here, headlines from both parties. Every primary night weve seen this in the Democratic Party<\/a>. 58 of new york democrats called themselves very or somewhat liberal in 2008, that number pushing 70 eight years later. This is also something were seeing on the republican side. Eight years ago, 2008, 56 of republicans called them very or somewhat conservative in the state. That number now over 70 , calling themselves some norm of conservative in new york. We can also look at, this is interesting, there was a lot of negativity in the Democratic Campaign<\/a> in new york. Bernie sanders at one point calling Hillary Clinton<\/a> unqualified. Has this campaign we asked democrats, energized your party. 68 of them say the Sanders Campaign<\/a> has energized the party. Only 27 say its divided the party. Very different results for the republican party. 57 saying its divided the party. And heres a new york specific question, the role of wall street. This has come up on the democratic side. Does wall street help or hurt the u. S. Economy . Overwhelmingly, voters saying it hurts the u. S. Economy. Even on the republican side, this is interesting, a small majority saying wall street, wall street a major part of the economy in new york, saying it Health Authorities<\/a> the new york economy. We dont have the graphic for it, but it looks like Bernie Sanders<\/a> supporters in particular saying that wall street hurts the u. S. Economy. Thats a fascinating but again, even in new york state, majority in both parties, weve seen this time and again, this economic anger message, however we ask it in each subsequent poll, it always turns out to be both parties kind of are starting to share that view in some form or another and here we are again. Thats right, chuck. Steve, thank you very much. Well see you later in the evening with more numbers. Let me break down more of the New York Primary<\/a>. We have Lawrence Odonnell<\/a> here host of last word. We have nbc political analyst and Republican Campaign<\/a> attorney ben ginsburg and nicole wallace, former Senior Adviser<\/a> to john mccain and president bush. Can we put out an apb for the stop Trump Movement<\/a> . No. Im trying to figure out where it is, its not here in new york. Because its such an expensive media market and they made the tactical decision to harbor resources for further down the road. Now theres less road to harbor the resources for, but its the classic decision that you make in a state where for a variety of reasons, this isnt the place to try to fight this fight. Nicole, there was so much, call it exuberance in this movement, the day after wisconsin. And i think the ted Cruz Campaign<\/a>, you talked to some supporters of it, you get the sense that they too know that they maybe had some irrational exuberance to borrow a famous phrase. They came here and maybe now regret it. Yeah, listen, i think the real stop Trump Movement<\/a> was the 15 republicans who ran against trump, and i think they ended in piles of dust is a pretty good prediction of how this movement now organized around the very idea of stopping trump, is going to end. I think the Cruz Campaign<\/a> sort of derived, as you said, an irrational degree of optimism. Their game is the second ballot, peeling off delegates should trump not arrive at 1,237. Theyre not in the game to beat trump in the primary contests. But, ben, you know this stuff better than anybody. So were sitting here now, trump looks like he may get, lets say 80. A bad night would be 80 for him at this point, of the 95. Can i just say, imagine that two weeks ago tonight . Right. And follow it up, theres not a state hell lose next week, at least as it stands right now, because the stop Trump Movement<\/a>, they should have been in pennsylvania last week. They should have been in maryland last week. Two states that they could have made progress and i think strategically made an error. Well, what they tried to do, i think, is to not play the statewide visions of winning the popular vote and gone into particular on one hand, smart, right . On one hand, smart, because you dont get many delegates statewide in new york or in any of those states next time. If you go in and do the granular work with delegates, thats where youre actually going to be able to get some territory. And the stop Trump Movement<\/a> had a great weekend in georgia and wyoming on the delegate count. Right. But i guess i go back to, maryland republicans are a lot Like Northern<\/a> virginia republicans. You cant start this tomorrow. No. Right . I mean, this is what feels weird about why the stop trump they sort of only think week to week . Maybe you dont see it and its really out there is, i think, the best case for it. But yes, you have to start early with delegates. Thats what the Cruz Campaign<\/a> is showing by picking up these victories in the states. Its what the Trump Campaign<\/a> has now realized. So the thrust of all of this is going to change a good deal in the conventions down the road too. But and im sure well hear a lot tonight from you and i especially wait for indiana. Right. Indiana . Listen, i think theres been so much analysis of the race, as people wish it were, not as it actually is. And as it actually is, weve sat here together now week after week after week, talking about trumps dominance. I mean, the voters are responding to him more than theyre responding to this stop Trump Movement<\/a>. And the hysteria still lies very much so in the establishment, in the conservative media, and in the conservative elite. If this election has taught us anything, theyre not the deciders. To borrow a word from where does this go from here . Do you still have trump in the stop Trump Movement<\/a> this is not a year for faith. I abandoned faith in 2015. You atheist now youre going to prove everybody right. They have no faith. I found god this year. I remember the morning the newt poll came out and donald trump was at 12. And we can find a shot of me saying, you dont think hes going to go higher than 12, do you . But faith is not something ive brought to this process. But weve never seen this before. Its a movement of republicans that say, if this person comes out of the convention, we will work against him. But will they vote for hillary . What do they do . The day after the Republican Convention<\/a> well have never trump people on and theyll tell us but this story is about, no matter which way the nominating process goes, there are going to be alienated republicans and who exactly is left to bring the party back . We have Mitch Mcconnell<\/a> trying to walk back what he said over the weekend when he said he was optimistic of a second ballot. Well, in classic mcconnell walkback fashion, you got to watch this. Take a look. What i said somewhat inartfully is that well have a nominee once we get to 1,237 votes. And if that doesnt happen on the first ballot, there will be another ballot. And i hope that ted cruz was third. He was at 49 , not yet at 50, but hes a watch out, 50, hell get there. The public is screaming, dont give us this choice and thats where i think youre right about uncharted territory. What happens when you hand an electorate to two people they dont want . It would probably mean you have the most negative campaign in history, which is something weve been saying for every election. Its not only the most important election, its usually the most negative. But look what happens with the down ticket races, such interesting coalitions that a Senate Candidate<\/a> or a house candidate in a contested race is going to have to mate with the top of the ticket and thats going to decide exactly how negative this all becomes, i think. What is donald trump, this is going to be the first time, we think theres a new trump or at least oh, i dont think so. Im with you. But lets use it as a hypothetical. I think Paul Manafort<\/a> is trying to create a new image. So this is the first time there will be a victory speech under the manafort regime, stay on message, you dont have to temper it back, just stay on the same message. What do you expect tonight . If Paul Manafort<\/a> gets his way, it will be a careful speech, but that includes trump flourishes. You dont want the teleprompter to suddenly bury the guy. Thats right. Whos been doing all that shtick that theyre showing up for. And youll try to get a kind of more lively version of the a pecks speech and see if he can do it. The only other option is, he has pays of alienating people in these freeform speeches. There were a lot of people in wisconsin, his family, and other establishment folks who have endorsed him, who are urging these lets call them tweaks, lets call it a reformed trump. Because i think that was the question he has stayed on one message. It may be the same bomba bassit. He made up with megyn kelly. He has been more strategic. He has been more measured and its all relative to the trump we saw three weeks ago and four weeks ago. So whats the message from cruz and kasich tonight . Trump does, the lets bring the Party Together<\/a> message. Cruz says, the dream lives on, that theres still a conservative movement that has to be able to and what does john kasich do . And john kasich said, im looking forward to the states next week where ill do really well. Kasich is going too finish second tonight. He is. And how damaging is that to cruz and his credibility as the alternative . Cruz isnt playing that game. He lost the delegate game. Hes speaking directly to them and hes running a second ballot drill. Kasich is making a play that the deck of cards will get thrown in the air at the convention and will land on someone electable. Kasich is the guy who will hold down the trump delegate count if anyone is. But they should have invested in him more. Why arent kasich and cruz cooperating . Thats the question. Right. And this will be the secondguessing that goes on when donald trump is accepting the nomination. [ laughter ] thats a fun way to start. Well have more exit polls throughout the hour. Still ahead, new york congressman, Chris Collins<\/a>, the very first member of congress to endorse trump. He joins me next, stay tuned. Its all about accumulating delegates going into the convention, because now everybody has figured out that were actually going to go to a competitive convention, an open convention. I think well do really well. It feels really good. You see all the people over there, all positive. No hecklers, no nothing. That was donald trump this morning, feeling pretty good after he cast his ballot in new york city. Voters across the empire state, theyll still have almost four hours to cast theirs. Remember, new york doesnt close until 9 00 p. M. Eastern. Coming up, Chris Collins<\/a> will join me to discuss trumps path forward post new york. And we have another exit poll number to share with you. 65 of new York Democratic<\/a> primary voters said they would definitely vote for clinton if she is the nominee in november. 20 said they will probably vote for her. But 13 of new York Democratic<\/a> primary voters said they will not vote for clinton if she is the nominee. Well be back in a moment, but first here is Hampton Pearson<\/a> with the cnbc market wrap. Thanks, chuck. Stocks ending the day mixed, the uda adding 49 points, the s p up 6, the nasdaq falling. Earnings from Johnson Johnson<\/a> came in ahead of forecast. The Company Raised<\/a> its guidance, sending shares higher. And intel shares are down. They plan to cut 12,000 jobs, 11 of its workforce as it restructures. Thats it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. Welcome back. As i told you at the top, it is the start of what is going to be a sevenweek sprint to the end of the primary season. And it all begins tonight with the new york president ial primary. Donald trump looks poised to win tonight. The question is, how big . Kasich and cruz are looking ahead to pennsylvania. Kasich campaigned in pittsburgh today, and cruz has a rally in philadelphia tonight. One wonders should they have been there sooner . Thats a separate story. Meantime, back in good old new york, anything above 50 for trump tonight means he could take all the delegates. Hes got to be 50 in every district to pull that off, probably not doable, but he could come close. Still he could have a big night, winning even 80 delegates would put him on a strong track for the next round of votes in connecticut, pennsylvania, maryland, delaware, and rhode island. Joining me now, katy tur from brooklyn. Let me start with you. Obviously they feel good about tonight, but i think the question is, what are they going to do tonight to set up the next week . Because his speech tonight, katy, will be the first time weve seen the new trump, or sort of the influence of the new trump team on a victory speech. Reporter i think what youre going to see tonight is what weve been seeing in the stump speeches of the past few days, which is a more to focused and tailor made message. Hes tailormaking messages to the city. I think well see him looking forward to the next states that vote, pennsylvania, connecticut, indiana, rhode island. The northeast is a sweet spot for him. He has a lot of appeal. When it comes to pennsylvania, theyre focusing on the 54 unbound delegates. They have been decrying the rules quite a bit, but theyre working the rules in pennsylvania. They have a slate theyre trying to push through, to get their own delegates in place. But theyll focus on message and substance, instead of outrageous statements. Its something that weve heard a lot from supporters on the campaign trail. They are entertained often times by his bluster, by the fights he gets into. But a lot of time they want him to tone it down, they want to hear more of his message. They want him to be slightly more president ial. There are those in the campaign that disagree with that idea, who are pushing back on it, because they want trump to continue being organic. They want him to continue being himself. So tonight i think what youre going to see and its going to be very telling, if he stays on message and on point, then were going to see more influence from rick riley or fall manafort. But if he starts to ramble on and get outrageous, then youll realize hes not listening to anybody and hell continue to follow his gut, which has got him pretty far so far. If theres such a thing about being disciplined about being unscripted, thats the sweet spot hes looking for. Katy tur, thanks so much. Exactly. Lets check in with Hallie Jackson<\/a> and the Cruz Campaign<\/a>. But youre not with them. Because theyve gotten out of dodge. Reporter theyre not in new york. Are they admitting that trying to campaign in new york maybe in hindsight was a mistake. . I think its clear from where senator cruz is today, in pennsylvania, in maryland yesterday. We wasnt in new york, hasnt been in new york for four or five days now. Which is a clear message of where he sees the race going. In the last couple of minutes, he pulled off this testy interview with sean hannity in which he issued his most forceful defense of his delegate hunting strategy so far. Trump has criticized him for that. Cruz has said, the process is the process, the system is the system. Now hes pushing back hard. He said, i cannot help that Donald Trumps<\/a> campaign does not seem capable of running a lemonade stands. Elections are won by voters, people who pick the candidates. There was an interaction where cruz pushed back and said im not asked about this by people on the ground. When you talk to voters in new york state or maryland where we were yesterday or indiana or pennsylvania where were headed tomorrow, likely, you do hear from people questions about how this works, particularly people who are not political activists, who are not grassroots members who are involved in the process. We were in wyoming this weekend, talking to the people who were at the state convention there. They all know the process, they get it. But the people donald trump is pulling into the tent maybe are confused by this. It could well be. Meanwhile, the east river looks like the pacific ocean, its so choppy behind you. Hallie, thank you very much. Appreciate it. Well see you a lot tonight. Lets bring in the first sitting member of congress to become donald trump. Its new york congressman Chris Collins<\/a>. Welcome back to meet the press dail daily. Happy to be with you. When you endorsed him six weeks ago, probably more recent than that, did you expect him to be as dominant in new york state as he turned out to be and perhaps in your Congressional District<\/a> . Yeah, chuck, it was actually eight weeks ago. Thank you. And we knew he was going to be dominant, certainly western new york, devastated by the loss of jobs, china and mexico stealing our jobs. His support here crosses the party lines. Its not just republicans. Its actually democrats and independents as well. Hes going to do extraordinarily well in western new york. And were pretty confident hes going to do well across the state, whether he gets 51 or not in all 27 districts, thats a heavy lift. But were looking at about 80 delegates out of new york, giving him momentum. Next week theres 0 delegates at stake. Pennsylvania is a large state with a very confusing primary system, with the delegates that are really unpledged. But when donald does well in pennsylvania, thats going to put a lot of pressure on the delegates to follow the lead of the voters. So its a different strategy in pennsylvania, but Donald Trumps<\/a> right where he needs to be to get to that magic 1,237. Let me ask you this, if Mitch Mcconnell<\/a> called you up and said, im no fan of donald trump, you decided to go for him quickly, what am i missing, what dont i understand . What would you tell a Mitch Mcconnell<\/a>, paul ryan, who are doing verbal gymnastics not to look like theyre comfortable with trump, but theyre trying to be neutral. What do you tell them to get them more comfortable . What got you more comfortable . What i would tell them, for the last 7 1 2 years, weve had a legislator who stepped into the president s office, never been prepared and the country has paid a price. The only chief executive left standing that could be the president is donald trump and bringing that experience into the white house. Someone who would put together the best cabinet weve ever seen, because hes going to hire the best and the brightest, thats what you do in the private sector. That in and of itself should carry the day, because we cant have another illequipped legislator going into the white house with all the issues and turmoil and trade and everything we have to deal with. You need the executive experience. Fair enough, but Donald Trumps<\/a> executive experience, hes had some successes and hes had some big failures. What of his successes gives you confidence that he can be the chief executive of the United States<\/a> . Well, we learn from our mistakes, whether theyre markets that you get into, companies you invest in. And when you look at his 40 years as a chief executive and the ups and downs, we all have those ups and downs, the bottom line is, his successes have overwhelmed some of the other issues, and i think its well regarded pretty much everywhere donald goes. Hes surrounded himself with key people, top people, probably more women in the top echelons of his company than most anywhere else. Treats his employees with respect. So thats the kind of donald trump chief executive youd see in the white house with a great cabinet, not micromanaging, but letting those officials do their jobs. I asked you how you would make the sale for trump to mcconnell. Whats your advice to donald trump to be a better general election candidate . On paper, it doesnt look like hed be a strong general election candidate. Hes got a lot of perceived weaknesses. What would your advice be to him to do well in a district like yours in a general election . Well, hes doing well. I came out of the private sector. My slogan was elect a chief executive, not a chief politician. Its the same message that donalds doing. You go to the top level of what youre going to do. Hes been very clear, hes going to put in tariffs to level the Playing Field<\/a> with china and mexico. Were going to get our jobs back. Hes talked about what hes going to do on the border, secure our borders, immigration. So hes been giving that 30,000foot message that has been very well received in my district, very well received throughout new york and the northeast. He just needs to stay on that message, which hes doing, certainly Continuous Improvement<\/a> in the private sector. Youre seeing changes with his campaign. Thats what you do, you tweak things in the private sector. Again, Continuous Improvement<\/a>. I think bringing Paul Manafort<\/a> on was a great move, and donald trump, he wants to win. Hes a winner. He knows what it takes, and im very confident you will be seeing a more president ial donald trump as this campaign moves forward. Congressman Chris Collins<\/a>, the first member of congress to endorse donald trump, from western new york. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it. Still ahead, my colleague Chris Matthews<\/a> will join me, get his take on whats at stake in new york. Look ahead to the democratic side of things as well. Just what does Bernie Sanders<\/a> need to do tonight . And if he doesnt do it, how does he land his own plane, when it comes to deeming with this nomination fight with Hillary Clinton<\/a> . Stay tuned. I think were going to win here in pennsylvania next week. We have the final tally on how much money the campaigns have shelled out on tv ads in new york. Bernie sanders spent about twice what Hillary Clinton<\/a> spent here. Sanders spent 5. 6 million on ads, versus 2. 8 million for the clinton campaign. Thats a reasonable amount of money to spend on a primary like this. Will it pay off . We another number to show you here. 59 of new York Democratic<\/a> primary voters would vote for sanders if hes the nominee. 21 said they would probably vote for him. 18 they would not vote for him if hes the nominee. 13 of democrats saying they wouldnt support Hillary Clinton<\/a> if shes the nominee. Its 18 that wouldnt support Bernie Sanders<\/a> if hes the nominee. Youre watching our special coverage, sevenweek sprint to the end of the primary season that begins with new york. Well be right back. Surprise to hear joe biden say if he were running he would be doing well. Thats true. Lets go to the Bernie Sanders<\/a> question tonight. If he doesnt pull off the upset, theres not a realistic path to the nomination that doesnt include the fbi. Lets be realistic here. If youre sanders, how do you land this plane . It got pretty contentious this week because i think they know the end is near. What does it look like tomorrow . It looks bad. It looks like hes ending the campaign by trying to knock her in and out campaign where he cant win the nomination. He looks like hes going for her head. Talking about her character. He keeps saying judgment. Let me tell you, you know the speeches will be turned into great republican attack lines. Hes going after he said she made a deal with the devil. You cant say stuff like that and meet in philadelphia and say were all friends. These are really strong attack lines. I wonder why they are being delivered except as a chance for a last minute reprieve from what looks like defeat on the part of the sanders people. It all makes sense if it stops tomorrow. The question is do they continue these messaging and attacks after tonight . I dont know. I wonder if they are looking at the ad copy. Washington politicians get 200,000 for speeches while the working guy and woman cant get 15 an hour for minimum wage. No politician in washington can give a speech, period, for money. The idea of making 200,000 is completely dishonest. Bernie sanders knows its dishonest. He cant give a speech for money. Whats he talking about . Congressman, senator, cannot give those speeches and havent been able to give them for more than quarter of century. Why are they running that ad . Hes trashing the whole political system. Youre asking the right question. I know you are. Whats the purpose of this kind of campaign at this point . Heres my other question to you, i think Bernie Sanders<\/a> has an opportunity while losing the battle to Hillary Clinton<\/a>, he would win the long term war and take over the Democratic Party<\/a> in message. Take over the Democratic Party<\/a> in sematics. Is he going to mess up that opportunity . Hes 75 to september. What do you mean the future . Its the movement could take over the party. Who will take over the movement for him . Elizabeth warren. I think she does her own thing. Thats why shes so pure. I dont think shes a party leader. Especially got a lot more. You have a lot more time the say it. Chris matthews, thanks for much. Well see you again at 7 00 eastern. Special edition of brooklyn hardball. Well be back with a lot more previewing. Right after this. Billions are spent to confuse and, dare i say it, flummox the american public. Save 16 on car insurance. Switch now. Well at compare. Com, we say enoughs enough. So we constantly scrutinize millions of rates. Answering the question once and for all, who has the lowest. Just go to compare. Com and get up to 50 free quotes. Choose the lowest, and hit purchase. So you can get back to whatever it is you civilians do when youre not thinking about car insurance. Compare. Com youto get the help yourefar looking for. Thats why at xfinity were opening up more stores closer to you. Where you can use all of our latest products and technology. And find out how to get the most out of your service. So when you get home, all you have to do is enjoy it. Were doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. Because we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. Polls close in 3 hours. The start of a sevenweek sprint. Every tuesday will matter from here on out. Tonight, williams, maddow, matthews will have up to the minute results. Well back with more. Steve picks up the coverage right this instant. I am so excited about both campaigning here in new york, voting here in new york and i love new york. I definitely voted for trump. Who would have thought it was a great honor. I think its great honor for new york. 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