And Mitch Mcconnell has a new plan to save his job as majority leader, embrace trump. This is mtp daily and it starts right now. Good evening, im chuck todd here at election headquarters in new york city. And welcome to mtp daily, with five days to go, the campaign trail is hoping. Trump went nuclear, though, claiming clinton will somehow be indicted t. Clinton campaign put out their own hit list on trumps various insults. We got nbc news battleground polls hot off the presses. We will dive into all of that for a moment. But first, lets begin with a bigger look at this race t. Race, of course is about getting to 270. Yes, ad dollars matter. The president ial contests are won or lost on the ground. For that reason, the campaign blitzed the battleground, including events in iowa, pennsylvania, melania stumped for the first time. Trump finished in North Carolina. Democrats had events in wisconsin. Obama spoke twice in florida. Sanders in ohio, clinton in North Carolina. Both side brought out the biggest guns they can bring out. This isnt a joke. This isnt survivor this isnt the bachelorette. This counts. If she were to win, it would create unprecedented constitutional crisis. If donald trump were to win this election, we would have a commander in ev ciao who is scompleetly out of his depth and whose ideas are incredibly dangerous. So, what do you think the stakes are for this election . Just small, huh, if you listen to trump and clinton there. Geeze, anyway. Presence cuts through all the spin because it shows you what these campaigns care about and where they think theyre as a resultner annu result vulnerable. Trump is an unconditional candidate, his schedule hasnt been untraditional. Hes blitzed all the traditional battleground, making more than 20 stops each e each in florida, pennsylvania, ohio and north cloip. Its for good reason. He has to win every single states just to get into the game. You cant think about 270 until he sweeps those four states. He made fewer stops in places where clinton held consistent leads, like virginia or the big blue wall of wisconsin and michigan. He will likely need to break through somewhere in the upper midwest to win. Hes made fewer stops in colorado, New Hampshire and iowa. Here are the states hes barely visited. Which includes placed they boasted about they wanted to put in play, deep blue connecticut, new jersey and illinois. Trump had to made i make a few pit stops in traditionally red states to try to shore up support like in arizona, even texas and dont forget about his stop in battleground mexico. Now, now new mexico, the visit to mexico. Mike pence has been to utah. Now lets go to the clinton map. His map screams one thing. Florida, florida, florida. She is from the sun shooempb state, winning more than 20 times since the convention. Her next most visited states looks a lot like trumps. There has been a lot of nevada and iowa with clinton and rounding out our peak map of travel is a mix of offense and some defense. There has been the traditional battlegrounds like New Hampshire and colorado, theres red arizona which is possibly in play, despite only going blue once since 1948 and then of course blue michigan, where the Trump Campaign is hoping to pull an upset. Clinton and trump have run polar opposite campaigns. But they both at least seem to agree where to travel t. Path goes through florida, 000, pennsylvania and North Carolina. They are the most visited Battle Ground states for both side by far. The schedule never lies. I am joined by two folks who know about battleground blitzes and why the schedules do tell us something. Sarah fagan a cnbc contributor and Campaign Strategist to the 2004 bush relay and bill burton, the National Press secretary and with priorities usa which was the president ial campaigns super pac for obama if 2012. Welcome to both of you. So the company schedule, sarah, it is obviously, i always we heard this, theres one thing you can never get more of. Thats the candidates time. The schedule is king. These schedules have been pretty traditional. They have been traditional t. Trump folks are smart. They know you got to win florida. That is the most important state for him. He looks reasonably strong or perhaps slightly ahead in ohio. Then of course that gets harder for him. Florida and then pennsylvania most likely. Thats probably the best path for trump to claim the Electoral College victory. Although that looks tough in my view. But his schedule reflects that. Bill, when you make a decision as a campaign to go to a state that hasnt been in the battleground state, say michigan, wisconsin, virginia within it comes to the clintonkain campaign, you know you will take some heat when that announcement gets made. Why would you do that this late in the game . Well, theres a variety of reasons youd go into these states right now. Even if you have a significant lead. For example, you know in pennsylvania where clinton has shown some strength. They dont have early voting. So her going to pennsylvania or tim kaine or the surrogates going there later in the game makes sense to make sure you are shoring up your base. Because everywhere you go, you likely end up on the front page of the newspaper, if you look at the front page of the Arizona Republic today, its a strong front page for Hillary Clinton. You dominate local News Coverage and your support gross. At the Clinton Campaign, theyre clutching information and getting those folks out to vote. Do big events matter even this late in the game . Particularly in the competitive Battle Grounds. Im glad you brought up that point, i was transitioning. Sarah, we have seen plenty of reports the Trump Campaign will hold a great rally, pass out all of these volunteer card, things like that. And then you hear they forget to check them. Or they dont go. I guess it is that has been up with of these cases where you see just as the Trump Campaign is picking up momentum, i have been accumulating these little ane anecdotes about ground game issues. Where is that going to cost them . Is that a point in florida, a half opoint in North Carolina . Yeah, i think its, donald trump ends up losing these key Battle Grounds by a point or a half a point, hes going to wish he never said that the Data Infrastructure was overrated. Look. There are real reasons hes behind clinton on this. The republican primary is long di visive. He didnt become the nominee until late. If fact is she has more time and invested more heavily in a ground game. I think for donald trump to win a state like. Holly or pennsylvania, its not good enough to be tied hes got to be up a point or two, maybe as much as two points because democrats billed in the obama victory, they have better infrastructure tan republicans, by deposition, you have a commander in chief sitting in the white house at your party. Bill, one of the things weve noticed here. Its not surprising you started to do it in 08. 2 and when you hold a rally say in late october in florida t. Clinton campaign has been planning them as close to an early polling location as they k. I saw it in North Carolina. The Trump Campaign hasnt been doing that as much. Maybe that just goes to inexperience on the ground. Right, its a big problem, the Clinton Campaign like the Obama Campaign before it is very focused on the actual mechanics of voting. What do people need to do to get their ballots, to get to the polling place and make sure their vote is counted. Making sure there is transportation, having organized, i remember in 08, we had people organize marches from the rallies over to the early voting locations. You know, robbie the Campaign Manager on the Clinton Campaign is one of the geniuses in field in the whole country. I think donald trump is a little late to the game and is doing his best to catch up. Its things like that thinking about the mechanics, how do you collect the information in how do you analyze the data that you have. It all matters, like sarah was saying. If you have places a half point or one point or two points away, that can really make the difference. We talk about surrogates matter a lot t. Surrogates that the democrats have versus the trub ticket. There hasnt been a comparison, because trump has not had party elders wanting to be a part of this but he did finally have his spouse out today campaigning on her own. Let me play an excerpt of her speech today in philadelphia. You have to find a better way to talk to each other to disagree with each other, to respect each other. We must find better ways to honor and support the basic goodness of o children especially in social media. What i found interesting is they have her do a speech when i think what they need is they need Retail Campaign and it seems to be that that is something that is another deficit of the Trump Campaign, part of it could be because the Republican Party elders havent been too fond. Its not like you have the obamas helping the clintons. We dont have the bushes and the romneys helping the trumps. I think having melania regardless of the event is definitely net positive for mr. Trump. She is graceful and elegant. She definitely softens him up and her speech while its gotten some ridicule because of the nature of talking about bullying and cyber stalking and so forth. She is right about, got criticism. Was that maybe the wrong campaign to be putting out that message . Well, i mean, theres all kind of analogies on twitter, Bernie Madoffs wife, so forth t. Reality is shes right and shes lovely and el gnt and donald trump should have her on the campaign trail every day doing as many events as she is willing to do. How much advantage thooung do you think this is, for obamas, bidens and a clinton spouse and trump is basically been going it alone. He gets, hes gotten guiliani, sometimes he has christie. Though not anymore. Some are not as effective as they used to be. Back a long time ago, i was john kerrys Midwest Communications director and that meant that we would organize all the different folks who on a campaign that sarah beat us on, by the way, was surrogates would come through, you could try to get local press in iowa, minnesota, wisconsin. If you didnt have a ted kennedy or a real major surrogate come out for you, you couldnt get major press on it. The fact that Hillary Clinton can bring the president , the first lady, Vice President and on and on and donald trump has only been using himself and not melania, its a huge advantage for clinton. I agree with sarah, the more melania is out on the trail, probably the better it is for trump. I think they were smart to send her to a place like pennsylvania where there are a lot of voters that i think she might appeal to but its pretty late in the game to start to do that. Its awfully late, exactly. Its late in the game. Well see how big of an impact it has. I will leave it there. Sarah tag ban, bill burrton. Appreciate it. Coming up, can Hillary Clinton break through in some of the reddest of is that its . Two weeks ago they role really thought they could. We will see states turning pink, not quite blue. Stay tuned. Can a toothpaste do everything well . This clean was like pow it added this other level of clean to it. 6x cleaning my teeth are glowing. They are so white. 6x whitening a i actually really like the 2 steps. Step 1, cleans. Step 2, whitens. Every time i used this together, it felt like leaving the dentist office. Crest hd. 6x cleaning , 6x whiteninga i would switch to crest hd over what i was using before. Crest. Healthy, beautiful smiles for life. Welcome back. We teased at the top, we have brandnew wall street maris polls, the borderline states, we got interesting results. We will share those with you in a minute. We also checked in on texas, because there hadnt been a good actual solid poll in texas in a long time. Heres what we found. We had trump leading. Johnson and stein combined a percent. A ninepoint lead for trump, right now smaller than a 16point win that romney grabbed texas with in 2012. Something to keep in mind and when i show you this next poll from california, well go from the biggest red state in terms of electoral to the biggest blue state. So a new online poll conducted by the field research, who used to be the preeminent phone poll in california, they have clinton with a 20point lead over trump in california. 5333. Perhaps the bigger news from this poll is they have clinton leading trump all over the place, including in traditionally republican strong holds like orange county. But theres Something Else hire want you to keep an eye on, on election night. Taken together, these numbers out of texas and california highlight what demographics are telling us. Many of the deep blue states are getting blueer. In some of the bicker red states, might be getting pinker. Trump may pete is in more of the battleground than mitt romney did. Consider this we could end up in a place where trump wins more electoral votes than romneys 206 but he could perform worse in the popular vote. If you look at texas, that tells you, he will not get the big margins. Clinton will get ginormous margins in california. Coming up, new numbers from arizona and georgia. Both states still competitive. Well be right back. Rsuit of he. It begins from the second were born. Because, healthier doesnt happen all by itself. It needs to be earned every day. Using wellness to keep away illness. And believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. As a Health Services and Innovation Company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. So while the world keeps searching for healthier were here to make healthier happen. We have a brandnew nbc wall street journal maris poll from arizona and georgia. It is that its that democrats have been talking about putting into play tore a decade now, first arizona, Hillary Clinton appeared at a huge rally last night. Trump at 45, clinton at 40. Thanks, to our likely voter model. Gary johnson, of course governor of neighboring new mexico is below 10 . Compare that to early september. Trump widened his lead a bit. As you can see, its Third Party Candidates that have gone away. That may be helping trump more than anything, clintons best shot is in gary johnson gets into double digits. Now to georgia. Here it is neck and neck. Democrats have been eager to capitalize on these demographic changes in go. And North Carolina. Right now, though, trump is ahead of clinton in a threeway race. We have johnson at 8. Jill stein, by the way is not on the ballot. Now well see what this means. Were aseouling an africanamerican electorate of 30 . Thats what keep georgia very close t. Question is will african turnout and the american electorate equal that 30 number. That will tell us how accurate this poll is. If you cant wait another five days for this race to be over, you might be in luck when it comes to nevada. Over 611,000 people voted. They are outpacing republicans. That data detect e collected and tabulated by target smart. Our friend and nevada guru thinks we might know if the race is basically done when early voting ends tomorrow night. All of it is based out on turnout in one critical county. What does he mean here . Austin us austin joins me. Myeople are intrigued when you said you can call nevada after tomorrow night. What makes you so confident . Well, im not that confident. You know how we pundits are, we talk more confidently than we r. Listen, there will be twothird, charge county is a hugely democratic county the democrats build up this firewall in terms of early votes and absentee ballots return. They have a 55,000 vote lead right now in that county. Theyre hoping to get it up above 60 maybe closer to 70 in 2012 when it was 70,000, barack obama won by seven points. All the data i seen indicates if they get it up above 60 to 65 or so, based on whats going on in whatshaw county, reno, it will be almost impossible for donald trump to win nevada unless something changes today or tomorrow. Where is he underperforming . Im not so much he is under performing as the democrats nominate in nevada. They have this clark county bastion. They have the Harry Reid Democratic Party machine. But there is one thing going on that i have been able to pick up on thats going on some other places too, i think, chuck, which is that Hillary Clinton is holding the Democratic Base and maybe higher numbers in some cases than barack obama did. Trump is hemorrhaging republicans. Theres one other thing, too, i think is interesting thats going on, truck. Independents, about 20 of the electorate here. They went for romney by some number of points. Maybe they went to obama for a few points if 2012. They are leaning towards the democrats now. They are much less white than they were in the past. Those voters and significant numbers i think are going against trump. Let me ask you one last question t. Mormon vote in nevada. Its bigger than most other states outside of utah and arizona. How much of a problem is that for trump . Are you seeing any evidence that mormons are crossover for clinton or not voting or looking for a third alternative . Gary johnson is on the battle here. Some mormons will vote for gary johnson. Not a lot because of his performance and some of his views are not going to comport by theres. Its clear mormons feel the same way as mormons in utah. They dont like trump.