For chuck todd. Welcome to mtp daily. T minus 15 days, and with two weeks to go until election night, momentum is going to be everything. So which side is going to have it in the all important final sprint to the finish and how are they going to get it . Democrats seem to think theyre going to get it by focusing on health care, and President Trump is hammering the issue of immigration. Youre looking at live pictures out of las vegas, nevada, where president obama took the stage just moments ago, making his return to the Midterm Campaign trail for democrats. Hes talking a lot about health care for one thing. Right now he is going off on republicans on the issue of preexisting conditions. More on that in a moment. But it is clear this rally is all about one thing and one thing only, and that is turnout. You go ahead and take a seat. I have a lot to say. This novembers elections are more important than any i can remember in my lifetime, and that includes when i was on the ballot. Thats saying something. In addition to president obama on the trail, joe biden is hitting the stump for democrats as well. He is looking to fire up that base. This afternoon, he ripped into President Trump while rallying for democrats in florida. We have a president whos put his own selfish interest ahead of the country. A president who is trying to amass power so he can abuse the power. I never thought i would see the day where neonazis, crawling out from rocks with lighted torches, with crazed expression on their face, carrying nazi flags. America already knows who donald trump is. Theyve got to make sure they know who we are. So that right there is a bit of the turnout message for democrats, and here is what theyre going to be up against. Democrats produce mobs. Republicans produce jobs. Thats become hash tag. The democrats dont care that a flood of illegal immigration will bankrupt our country. This will be the election of kavanaugh, the caravan, law and order, tax cuts, and common sense. And with just 15 days to go, President Trump is doubling down on the issue of immigration or more accurately put, the fear of immigration to energize republican voters. Today he warned theres a caravan headed to the southern border with criminals and unknown middle easterners mixed in. It is a national emergency. I assume he meant emergency. Lets assume it is emergency. Blame the democrats and remember the midterms. Lets bring in tonights panel. Jonathan lamier, jillian tent, and susan del percio. There are two opposed messages. The democrats learned the lesson from 2016, cant totally focus on donald trump and how horrible he is, we think. We need to focus on some substance as well. Thats why we see them hitting health care over and over again. Donald trump, meanwhile, is going back to his basics and what worked for him. It is interesting because when i was on the road, all i heard about was health care, over and over again from republicans and democrats alike, so i wonder if the republican messaging from trump himself is broad enough to get anybody out beyond the after i did Donald Trump Voter avid Donald Trump Voter. It is a greatest hits in some ways. He revived immigration or fear of immigration as sort of his Closing Argument with two weeks until the election day. People are already starting to vote. And we are talking about the wall, they seized on this caravan, this image, kavanaugh ankara van. Newt gingrich provided that sound bite about a week ago on fox news, trump seems to have seized on that, made that a big part of what he is doing. They believe the contentious hearings over Justice Kavanaugh electrified republican voters. It is unclear whether that energy will remain next two weeks. So this close to the end, you think the final sprint, people would still be fired up about it, but less so than perhaps had he been denied a seat, then there would have been anger. Now, hes in, we win. Now theyre trying to lean on something else. Economic messaging doesnt seem to have worked enough. Now we have a phantom tax cut plan. He throws out, before november, and meanwhile, the house isnt in session before november, congress is not in session. And Associated Press colleagues who talked to people on the hill have no idea what he is talking about. Theres no momentum for this to happen. Put aside the fact the reason democrats are talking health care now is it is hard for them to talk about the economy because the economy is growing and growing pretty strongly. One thing thats striking thus far, doesnt seem like the trade war issues are hurting the overall economy at all. Yes, theyre hitting specific pockets, but it is hard for the democrats now to come up with a coherent alternative economic message or to go to voting base and say look, the president has messed up the economy, you should vote for us. Two number one issues according to polling are the economy and health care, and while donald trump gets points for the economy, it is not entirely clear that voters want to give him all of the credit for the economy. When it comes to health care, i think voters are clear on who is going to be the republicans i talk to on the road last week, when i asked what they cared about and when they would say health care, i said do you trust the democrats or the republicans on health care, and anecdotal, obviously, they said the democrats. These were the republicans, these were not the democrats which i imagine is why you hear someone like president obama obviously near and dear to his heart, going out, talking about health care a moment ago. Lets listen to that. Let me Say Something as the person who actually passed the law that prevents people with preexisting conditions from being discriminated against, i can tell you that they have no way of protecting preexisting conditions with anything theyve proposed. Theyre just saying it. Theyre just making it up. Lets talk about them just saying it before i go to you, susan. You have republicans like josh hawley saying in missouri he wants to protect preexisting conditions, he is invoking his son. He is one of the ags suing to repeal obamacare. Republicans remember, they have been in control of congress. They had the chance to repeal and come up with a replacement, that did not happen. Yet you see ads like this and interviews like this. Lets watch. We totally support people with preexisting conditions. I have never said we need to get rid of preexisting conditions. I support legislation to make sure it stays. In wisconsin everyone living with preexisting conditions is covered now, as long as i am governor it will always be covered in the state of wisconsin. Let me read the republican bill i voted for. Section 137. Nothing in this act shall be construed as permitting Health Insurance issuers to limit access to individuals with preexisting conditions, unambiguous. Congressman dated, people like my little boy with a preexisting condition should be covered under the law. Congress had a chance to do this. Of course they did. Lets not forget, health care is another economic issue. Thats what a lot of people are thinking when they go there. Yes, preexisting conditions are extremely important, but people are looking that they cant afford their ral afford their rates and hit deductibles. It is the perfect foil for the democrats to use. You cant go genagainst the economy, but you can use it as a sound economic issue thats still hurting you very hard. So it works for the democrats in that regard. And of course donald trump is going to go to immigration because thats what kicked him off. This is really not about the other knlcandidates, it is abou donald trump when he is campaigning. Thats the difference. Donald trump is out there campaigning for him, trying to solidify his base, whereas democrats are trying to change the voter turnout model so they get new voters out there. I wonder go ahead. One thing thats interesting about the day is appearance of joe biden because i have been speaking a lot to people around Donald Trumps team who are doing the polling and number crunching, the teamworki workin the last election, and a lot of people think it is a struggle to beat joe biden. He pulls in crowds and has enthusiasm. Interesting to see if he gets more prominent in the coming days or not. I think youre right. Donald trump is trying to come up with nicknames to stick to joe biden. 1 joe is the new one. He got 1 in iowa caucus in one of the runs for president. Joe biden is several years oe oemder older than trump, comes with a couple of failed president ial runs. Certainly he does perhaps present a more challenging opponent than some of the others, but i think that trump at this point is reasonably confident. Well get into 2020 in a while, i dont want to step on that. My question, john, maybe best posed to you, this feels a lot to me like 2016. It feels like the conversations being had on tv news and news rooms and by republican strategists or democratic strategists is set. Theres going to be a blue wave, the democrats have the momentum in the house, the senate is definitely going to be held by the republicans, it just feels like theres a lot of confidence about how things are going to go in the same way everybody had confidence in 2016, and maybe it is because i lived through 2016, im certainly cynical and skeptical that it will turn out the way everyone expects it to. One person that does say reminds me of 2016, trumdonald trump. We interviewed him last weerk ad he feels the ground swell is like what he benefitted from two years ago. People not picked up by polls are outraged over kavanaugh and immigration and will turn out and vote like they did last time, even though his name is not on the ballot, but i certainly agree. Any of us being in prediction, it is a little fool hardy. We are gun shy of doing that. The normal rules of politics seem to have changed and donald trump is a major player in that, even though he is not up for election now, he hovers over this. We should be prepared for any outcome. You look at the polling numbers, nbc, the wall street journal poll today essentially showing donald trump has the highest Approval Rating of his entire presidency, 47 . Thats striking. And he hasnt campaigned hard. He is back on the road, talking to reporters again, saying what he wants to say, whatever comes to top of his mind, he is throwing out things like a tax plan that have no basis in reality, he is saying a lot of things that arent true on a daily basis, and talking about a caravan, wants everybody on television to talk about the caravan. I talked to a dhs official last week about this, and they were saying this is something that they believe is good for them to get covered. Like the administration wants us to talk about the caravan because images of the caravan and my granigrants he floated the idea that theyre behind the caravan. Argument could be made the other way, certainly not a Political Party behind it, but it benefits the republicans. The message he is trying to get out there, plays to those fears. The problem is there are trump voters that hate washington. So trump, even though he says vote for him is a vote for the candidate to vote for him, he is not on the ballot. Theres also that fear. Whereas democrats have fear in a different way, not fear, anger in a different way because of the result of the 2016 elections, and thats the major difference between 2016 i think and today. Can i say one other thing from the point of view of the economy, i was in the white house friday, talking to some senior team there, they made two important points. Firstly, if there are any more signs of stock market wobbling or falling, theyre going to present it as investors fear of blue wave, and the idea investors will roll back deregulation reform. Use whatever is happening to their advantage. Looking very much to the stock market. If theyre in the stock market between now and election day, that will definitely be played by the republicans. They will try anyway. Second point from the tax cuts, it is interesting. Yes, donald trump tossed out this idea of a tax cut for the middle class, the other issue that theyre looking at closely is trying to take some Corporate Tax cuts and make them permanent. Insofar as people are putting personal income through small companies, youre basically looking at them being able to stand up and say were giving permanent tax cuts or permanent tax rates of 18, 20 . Set up a corporation, funnel the earnings through yourself. Which the trump team have experience of, and helps small businesses. Doesnt generally help the middle class. Many people are making corporations for themselves. The ideas being tossed around. Wage salary employees versus what you talk about are small bit businesses that set up an llc. I have one, it is normal, thats what you do in starting your own business. It is common. Salary employee is a different thing, a tax cut would effect. Those are two completely theres an attempt to look at tax cuts going forward. Well see if that works. Stick with us. 15 days until the election, it is all about the tale of the turnout. How early voting numbers shape results nationwide up next. Gs its open hey. This is amazing. With moderate to severe ulcerative colitis, are you okay . Even when i was there, i never knew when my symptoms would keep us apart. So i talked to my doctor about humira. I learned humira can help get, and keep uc under control when other medications havent worked well enough. And it helps people achieve control that lasts. So you can experience few or no symptoms. Humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. Serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. Before treatment, get tested for tb. Tell your doctor if youve been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if youve had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flulike symptoms or sores. Dont start humira if you have an infection. Be there for you, and them. Ask your gastroenterologist about humira. With humira, control is possible. Today is a good day to make a plan for your financial goals and your everyday ones too. Pnc can help. Well be with you every step of the way. Lets start today. Like a big pizza pie, thats amore. When the world seems. Applebees new neighborhood pastas. Now thats eatin good in the neighborhood. One thing we know, we are looking at unprecedented enthusiasm or anger for both parties. On the same day, thousands began to line up before sunrise to attend a President Trump rally with ted cruz in houston. Thousands gathered to cheer on cruzs opponent beto orourke. They join more than 5 million americans nationwide that already voted, already voted in this years midterms. And that should come as no surprise when you consider the new nbc news the wall street journal poll that finds that 65 of all registered voters have a high interest in this years election. Thats the largest number since 2006. Which party is benefitting most from early voting is a question we need to answer. To help do that, lets go to mark murray, senior Political Editor for nbc news. Mark, when i go out and talk to voters, i hear health care more than anything else. That is anecdotal. What do the numbers and polling show you, what are voters caring mostly about . According to the nbc, the wall street journal poll yesterday, the economy and jobs is issue number one, close second is health care. And theres an interesting divide as you mention. Democrats are the ones talking health care, republicans are the ones talking the economy and jobs. Some of the other issues democrats are talking about, the middle class, republicans are talking about immigration. But clearly this kind of jobs, economy versus health care is the big issues that are going on and what we are seeing play out in ads and races across the country. Who is it benefitting more, the up tick in enthusiasm, the up tick in early voting . Well, one on the enthusiasm, what you see now are two fired up political parties, and normally in a midterm environment, katie, you have one party out of power thats fired up, the party in power isnt. That was the dynamic in 2006. This is two fired up sides. It isnt even going to be 2016, it is an electorate we have never seen before. All kinds of outcomes are very possible. And as you mention, how is that enthusiasm playing out in some early voting, we end up having tea leaves in early important states like florida, nevada, and arly vote in right now according places like arizona and florida seems to be benefitting republicans. More republicans are turning in ballots, more democrats turning in ballots so far in nevada. But not only are these tea leaves, theyre incomplete. One of the reasons why, a lot of early voting, ones that traditionally benefit republicans are vote by mail. And republicans normally have a big advantage there. Democrats have the big advantage in the in person voting where you go in to the voting place and cast ballots, and thats ongoing. A place like florida hasnt started the statewide early voting yet, so we need to check the numbers a couple of weeks from now. Then theres one other caveat, no idea how the independent votes break. So they are tea leaves, it is fun to watch, but dont give you the whole picture. They do not. The most important issues, third thing was change in washington. When economy, jobs, health care, then change in washington, how large was percentage that wanted a change in washington and what does that say to you . The poll showed republicans with a one point advantage on the question on which party better handles trying to change washington. That was a surprise, given it is republicans that are in charge. We have seen democrats leaning in to health care, not talking as much about a culture of corruption or their own version of draining the swamp, trying to bring change. They want to stick to pocketbook issues, talk health care. One of the big reasons why i talk to democratic strategists and that do focus groups, they believe voters get more depressed the more you talk about washington and donald trump, in a way leaning in on health care is something youre able to talk about, an issue that doesnt demoralize your base or segment the base that dont want to talk about the president. Im going to ask you, you did so much prognosticating, following the close closely, when you look at 2016 and today, do you feel theres a big difference, does it feel the same to you . Whats your take . My take is, katie, one, elections are always unpredictable. One thing you can say, who has the advantage, who would you rather be. Going into 2016, i was of the mind set i would rather be Hillary Clinton than donald trump. He ended u