If its tuesday, we are in the Campaign Home stretch. The battleground map is tightening. New msnbc marist poll numbers showing a dead heat in americas most important swing state. Florida, florida, florida. Plus, the u. S. Passes another grim milestone in its fight against covid. 190,000 deaths. As the race for a vaccine looms over the race for the presidency. And evacuations, helicopters rescues and what officials are calling an unmitigated disaster. California battles one of its worst wildfire seasons ever. We say this every year and yet its happening again. Worst season ever. Millions of acres scorched. Welcome to tuesday. It is meet the press daily postlabor day sprint. Im chuck todd. 56 days until the election. Weve got new poll numbers hot off the presses here from our nbc marist poll of battleground florida where President Trump will be speaking in the next few hours. And it is a dead heat. Not virtually. It is a dead heat. 48 48 among likely voters in the state. Florida is often seen as the political microcosm for america and for good reason. The overall political headwinds continue to favor the Biden Campaign. Its still tied in americas most battleground state. The president spoke to reporters on his whey to florida. He drais addreaddressed an appa crunch facing his campaign and whether hed have to use his personal funds. Yeah, if i have to, i would. We needed to spend more money up front because of the pandemic and the statements being made by democrats, which were again disinformation. If we did, we dont, because we have much more money than last time going into the last two months. I think double and triple. But if we needed anymore, id put it up personally. You spent 60 million on that primary. How much are you talking putting into your campaign . Whatever it takes. We have to win. This is the most important election in our history of our country. We have a radical left group going around. These people, theres something wrong with them. There really is. Theres something wrong with them. And joe doesnt have the strength, the mental capability to control these people. I hope you caught the president s confirmation of the campaigns money troubles when he used some bizarre spin to say we have twice as much money as we did this time four years ago. Four years ago, they had no infrastructure. It was a campaign all over the map, all over the so to even compare the two is, shall we say, sunny spinny. Despite the headwinds. Democrats are worried that parts of the party are terrified florida will continue to haunt them like in 2016 and 2004 and in 2000. And perhaps adding to those concerns our poll numbers showed bien is losing ground with a key constituent clinton dominated, latinos. Biden is overperforming with a group that rejected clinton. Seniors. Its a Group Donald Trump dominated in 2016. In our new battleground map weve moved florida from lean democrat to tossup and moved other notable battleground states in trumps direction as well. North carolina has moved to tossup and texas has moved from tosson to lean republican. Even with those changes the general election map still tilts in bidens favor. Just not as drastically as it did preconventions. Biden would rack up at least 290 and trump with 163 and 85 in the tossup category. Sort of like a 2012 map. At least today. Also now starting to tilt in bidens favor is the money race which the Trump Campaign once dominated. Remember the death star . Now as you can see, the Biden Campaign is outspending the Trump Campaign on the air waves all over the place. The Trump Campaigns huge financial edge is not just gone. Theyre at a deficit. Joining me on the ground is Josh Lederman, also robert costa, an nbc analyst. The president going down there to play environmentalist, if you will. Its an issue that does unite the state of florida generally. But it is an issue that republicans used to try to show their conservation credentials a little bit and that is extending moratoriums on offshore oil drilling. The moratorium doesnt expire this year so theres no sense of urgency to it. What is the president adding to this, josh . Well, the moratorium expires next year, but there have been calls from both of the republican senators from florida to extend that another decade. Were still awaiting final details about what exactly the president will include in this, whether it will be just limited to the water offs of florida or potentially other states along the coast as well. But this is a pretty transparent political aboutface by the president. It was President Trumps administration, chuck, that in 2018 moved to expand offshore drilling to basically everywhere including off the shore of florida, california. That later got rolled back amid some concerns from republicans here as well as some legal challenges. But the president clearly trying to tap into support for conservation in florida right as we get up to the last few months of the election. Josh, look. Hes down there. Hes down in jupiter, which is really sort of its not swing area. Why there . Is there any specific reason or is it just convenient for him travelwise . Well, i think partially its comfortable territory for him. Its his home turf. This is now President Trumps home county and we saw over the weekend there was that flotilla of protrump boats parading in this area. But ive got to tell you, chuck. I just got off a briefing the Trump Campaign did for reporters where we heard them do something theyve really never do before, which is they laid out a path to victory for President Trump. Actually several scenarios in which he loses florida and its 29 electoral votes and still wins the general election and gets past 270. Now that, obviously, entails President Trump basically sweeping all of the other states. An official on this call quickly interjected to say, lets be clear. They expect that trump will win florida. But just the fact that theyre even acknowledging the possibility he could lose florida and trying to make the case for how he could win the election without florida seems to be a good indication of how nervous the campaign is about the prospects here in florida, chuck. Boy, that does say a lot, josh, because it was just two weeks ago that jason miller went on meet the press and said our path to nomination is easy. We just need florida plus one. That was the whole path. If they dropped florida plus one, i think that tells you a lot about the landscape they see. Robert costa, the Trump Campaign is finally admitting something that many of us have seen for weeks now, which is they have a cash problem. They were acting like a campaign with money troubles. Theyre trying to you can see theyre trying to nickel and time their way in the battleground states begging superpacs to fill in the gap. Arizona, pennsylvania, michigan, all with zero dollars from the Trump Campaign using superpacs to back them up. How bad is this money trouble for this campaign, robert . Talking to my republican sources, chuck, its clear that this is a problem not just for the Trump Campaign but its a problem for the entire gop because inside the white house, theres a belief the president can create his own news like he did in 2016. He often averted advertising because he wanted to make his own headlines and that was that a way to get attention instead of using paid advertising. Most republicans dont play politics in the same way the president does and theyre nervous about the ground game, about operations, about whether theyll be able to get on tv and they see an enormous democratic momentum in terms of spending in Key Senate Races like arizona. You know, its interesting to hear the president talk about possibly spending his own money. Its my understanding, robert, from donors, from veteran fundraisers over the years to get rich people to write big, fat checks to rich people running for office, that said rich person also needs to write check if you want to get billionaires to pony up. So the president almost has to write some check to his campaign at this point just for show, doesnt he . Ill believe it when i see it, chuck. As a reporter, President Trump often makes statements about something hes going to do. When he does it well report on it, but he says a lot of things that sometimes dont often end up unfolding in the way he says, to say the least. And what you are really seeing right now is a lot of unease on the republican side about the lack of grassroots momentum. The president , of course, can stoke it with his tweets but hes usually out there at this season during this time on the campaign trail having rally after rally in a Minor League Hockey league arena or major basketball arena and he just doesnt have that capability right now due to the pandemic. And so theyre struggling to have that same playbook they had in 2016. The decision, you heard what Josh Lederman said. The decision about the campaign to start touting paths to reelection without florida, robert. That feels like quite the tell at the poker table. Its also a way of lowering expectations. The Trump Campaign believes florida remains one of the states that could be central to its path. Josh is reporting its spot on that youre starting to hear more from other Trump Campaign advisers about a path that could include states like minnesota that they lost in 2016 but did better than they expected to. And youre seeing this battle thats really thought to be going to be about the industrial midwest. Its expanding to places, not just in florida but when you think about florida y is it in play . Its because the south is increasingly in play. Bidens campaign is putting a new emphasis on georgia. They look at the senate race and they see some sprouts of opportunity. Theres no doubt were starting to see a shift between the northern swing states and southern swing states. Of course, weve been saying that every four years. Josh lederman, robert costa, thanks for getting us started on this one. Lets turn to a couple of florida experts. Joining me, mark caputo and carlos. Mark, 48 48. I mean, you cant get any more florida than that result. Whats fascinating is whats inside the directional trend lines of our poll. One is biden is overperforming among seniors and trump is overperforming along latinos. Discuss. First, mark, you. Well, i think that joe biden has really not spent a boat load of time reaching out to hispanic or latino voters, and donald trump has. On the other hand, part of bidens messaging from the primary on has been geared toward older, white moderate and suburban voters. Youre seeing that come to fruition. White voters, Nonhispanic White voters in florida are about 62 of the registered voters. Latino hispanic voters are about 17 . For every percent of hispanic voters biden loses but picks up in white voters, hes really eating into the president s base. Like anything in florida, you mix everything together, you see one side makes one chess move. The other makes another and youre suddenly back at a stalemate or a tie. You know, its exactly what i was thinking, marc. Carlos, it seems like you have everybody thinks, all you have to do is improve the older white vote and all these other numbers, but nothing is static. Im curious your take on why you think biden is basically lagging behind Hillary Clinton with florida latinos. Well, its really interesting whats happening here, chuck, because biden is gaining ground in areas that have been trending red. So think about suburban areas here in south florida. Of course, the i4 corridor. And then the president is gaining ground with latinos and people of color generally. So in 2016, Hillary Clinton won Miamidade County by 30 points. I highly doubt that joe biden is going to be able to repeat that kind of victory here in south florida. He may win by 20, by 25, but from the polling ive seen and a lot of the anecdotal evidence ive found on the street hes not going to win by 30 but wh b suburban voters that abandoned trump in 2018 and gave trump the house and, sure, florida is raising a lot of questions again with minority voters flocking towards trump or at least moving gradually toward him and white suburban voters moving toward biden. This is why i dont get the, oh, if they lose florida, they can win in another way. The older white florida vote is similar to the older white pennsylvania vote. It isnt going to be as different as they think. Marc caputo when Kamala Harris got pick as the running mate, you wrote a piece i was waiting for somebody to write which is, hey, her jamaican roots could be very intriguing in organizing in south florida. Have you seen any evidence yet . Well, ive seen evidence of that, the campaign knows this. They sprung into action over the weekend. They gave an interview to caribbean rhythms which is an a. M. Radio show. Its been around 30 years reaching out to the broward or jamaican community, a Caribbean Community in broward county. Whats interesting and one of the things i learned as a longtime florida resident and florida reporter is just how politically active the jamaican American Community has become in broward county. Every Single Member of the Miramar City Council and the mayor himself, have jamaican roots which blew me away. And the Biden Campaign and democrats not only want to use this jamaican outreach but make it a broader pancaribbean outreach among those who have black heritage and theyre reaching out to haitian American Voters who were pulled toward clinton as well. Thats another example of go ahead. No, i believe the haitian story, wasnt that a specific example of anger at bill Clintons Foundation that certainly some key political leaders in the Haitian Community withheld their support over Hillary Clinton over it, isnt that right, marc . Oh, no. Things Hillary Clintons campaign did that took oh, im sorry. One of the problems that Hillary Clintons campaign had in south florida is that she kind of ignored they ignored the severity of the campaigning leveled against them, the haitian American Community and took it for granted and they paid the price for that. I dont think bidens campaign is doing that. Quite the opposite. You can see from Kamala Harris who is coming down here to miami on thursday. Theyll not be committing that error. Might be committing other errors but not committing that one. Right. Carlos, im curious your take on this biden ad. It seems biden is targeting older white voters almost not exclusively, but that that seems to be this focal point. Take a listen to this ad. Im in that group thats vulnerable and to watch the ineptness of the administration which has really done nothing to this date. They do not have a plan. We need to put this country back together. So i ask myself three things. Who can do something about covid . Who can do something about Prescription Drug costs . And who can bring us back together again . Joe biden is the answer to all three of those questions. So carlos, if you were the Biden Campaign, would you tell him that look, youve got to target all these communities in florida because it is, as marc points out, it is sort of a complicated math equation at times. But would you be spending a big chunk of your money in florida on ads like that . Chuck, the Biden Campaign understands covid is the big weak spot for the president. They want to keep it front and center. But i think they also have to dedicate some resources to defending against the president s weapons of choice. In a lot of parts of florida, the whiter parts, its law and order and creating this Cultural Divide and exploiting it. Here in south florida, its socialism. And its saying that joe biden wants to put in place Latin Americanstyle socialism which, of course, a lot of people here in this community where mark and i live, fled from those kinds of governments. Covid19 is important. The Biden Campaign has to bet on that. But i dont think they can afford to bet exclusively on that. They do have to play some defense because the Trump Campaign is trying to scare some of those swing voters, hispanic and white, back towards the president by saying joe biden is going to promote lawlessness, is going to promote socialism, is going to put Bernie Sanders and aoc policies at the forefront. So i do think they need to diversify a little more. Marc, youre an outdoors guy, a south florida guy. Are we going to politicize voting . Of course. Were going to politicize everything. That was partly just born of the fact that it was right at the height of the covid crisis and Trump Supporters couldnt go out. They couldnt go to rallies and voice their support. They started doing that. But, heck, there is almost a connection with, you know, communist cube athe way everything became political. Now were seeing that in our own politics like food, boating, i imagine pogo sticks if people still jump on those are going to become political statements as well. Who knows. Tlfrks y there you go. Weve got some breaking news on the other side of the country in california where firefighters are struggling to contain blazes all across the s