Good evening and welcome to this p. M. Edition of a. M. Joy. Im in des moines iowa, where in just two days we will get our first sense of which democratic candidate voters want to see go against donald trump. But the dems are still having aftershocks from the last president ial election. The latest sign that the partys fractures from 2016 have not even close to healed, started with those comments by Hillary Clinton about defeating Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primaries. And in an interview where she said nobody likes senator sanders, although china has clarified her comments and said she will vote for whoever the nominee is. That did not stop rashida tlab from hitting back. You remember last week when someone by the name of hillary china sa clinton said were classy here. Were not going to boo. No, boo you know i cant be quiet. Im going to boo. The haters will shut up on monday when we win. There we go. Yikes, this morning. Tlaib walked back her comments. She said she allowed the comments get the best of me. You all, my sisters in service and on stage and our movement deserve better. China statement nick merrill issued this statement, i cant imagine this kind of behavior as something iowans want to see from their candidates and i dont imagine the vast majority of voters in tlaibs district want to see this either. Joining me now is msnbc contributor and cofounder of campaign zero. Charlie pierce, writer at large for esquire. Erin haines. And sherry moretis, thank you all for being here. I am going to go to you first, charlie as a neutral party here. It does feel like the 2016 primaries will never end. It really is time for the 2016 election to be over. This is reminding me of the episode where one guy was white on one side and black on the other side and the other guy was reversed. And theyd been fighting for 5,000 years over this. Thats what this is. Everybody just let it go, seriously. The thing is the fact that they cant let it go, that this rift in the party is still so raw for both Hillary Clinton supporters and obviously, the candidate, and for Bernie Sanders supporters, particularly he doesnt talk about it as much. Theyre taking basically two parties still at war. This is worse than 2008. What you are seeing is that this wound has been opened anew. You talk to the Sanders Campaign, they say look, Hillary Clinton drew first blood by bringing this back up again. This is not just bad blood lingering over from 2016. These are fresh comments coming out of a documentary. So yeah, you saw representative tlaib and the audience started that boo, and the moderator referred to Hillary Clinton as a hater. So yes, this rift is still very fresh for a lot of folks, and that, you know, could pour tend badly, especially if senator sanders is the nominee. Hillary clinton will rally around him as she said she would in later comments, is that going to hold up once we get to a general election should he be the nominee. It was reopened by the interviews, but if you are on social media at all it has never ended and the supporters of sanders had about the party and the feelings about the dnc never changed. From your point of view, how d that, i am an open fan of the squad. I think theyre changing the party in a great way. But the fact that they have that feeling, how would they bring the Party Together . You are seeing an incredibly strong ground game. I think the campaign and what supporters in this state are really focussed on is this incredible momentum. So these are somewhat of a distraction. What were really excited about is that senator sanders is surging, and its on a basic message. His consistent basic message. We need medicare for all. We have people crushed by medical debt. Our minimum wage is 7. 25. We are so caught up in this incredible ground game. You see it on social media. Im on twitter, you know. I have a facebook page, but it isnt the kind of thing im gravitating to, because we have this ground swell of support. Youre inside the camp. Its not a distraction to the campaign. Theres mechanics, which youre talking about. Theres also the message, the messaging of the campaign, the image of the campaign. And outside of people who are already inside sanders aworl w the campaign can feel hostile. If this senator, who is an independent, manages to become the standard bearer of the democratic party, hes never been a member of, but he is part of obviously the caucus. If he were to become the standard bearer, how does the k caustic part of the party, how does that attract the rest of the party to feel loyalty to him . Take for example, i live on the east side of des moines. Thats working class. My neighbors are fired up for bernie. I mean people who are not. We did a poll behind us. There are a lot of people behind us who like biden, klobuchar or other people. If their candidate doesnt get the nomination, sanders is still going to want them to vote for him. His message resonates across the board. Every day people are hurting. This is a rigged Economic System crushing people of debt, students crushed with debt. Immigration reform that we need desperately. We still have somebody in the white house that is, you know, separating women and children. I think all thats true. Let me get brittany in here and see what you fwthink about this. Social medias not the real world. Social medias just social media, but if is part of imaging. There is a bend the knee aspect of the pitch such as it were, to all the other voters. Does that work with all the other voters . Well, first of all, happy plaq black history month, joy. January was a long year, and we made it. This calculus of alienation is frankly quite confusing to me. Look, im an activist. So i believe in conflict as long as the conflict is productive. I have Great Respect for the congresswoman. She knew that that wasnt productive conflict. Frankly, i endorsed secretary clinton. Theres a way for us to have legitimate disagreements that is restorative and doesnt run the risk of leaving people out and getting people to stay home when it really matters. So i dont think this is the smartest move at all. And i think ultimately, this campaign has to decide if its going to be a light in the darkness or if its going to get caught in the same kind of nastiness that we see on the other, in the other party. I was up last night, and up until that moment it was a great moment. I ilhan omar told about seeing movies in the refugee camp when they were trying to get acclimated. And they were all this leave it to beaver movies about america. And she talked about getting off the plane and saying this isnt the america that you promised me, dad. And her father said something to the effect of, well, were going to get to the america. I promise you. I thought that was brilliant, and five minutes later this thing happened and it demolished the mood. And i thought politically it was Christmas Day yesterday for the Bernie Campaign because of the bloomberg being allowed into the debate. That is right down the wheel house. And again, it got sidetracked because of the Hillary Bernie thing. What we are talking about, the candidates as they are making this final push going into the weekend, weve been talking so much about electability and the candidates electability. But you hear the candidates really talking about a message of unity. Multiple candidates talking about unifying, not just setting that tone coming out of iowa, but through this nomination process and headed to the general election. As much as what the candidates are going to do, what these voters are going to do coming out of this primary is a real question raised by this rift. And you want to get beyond this, but let me play jennifer palmieri. And then i want to play what Michael Moore said. Part of the problem for ch a clinton was we had every day, 17 people attacking her, two democrats and 16 republicans. So when you got to the general election, there are a lot of senator sanders supporters that were just never going to come her way. It is really crorrosive. And when donald trump and others are making the same comment it sticks. Lets hear Michael Moore. People were already booing hillary before rashida said anything. Because thats the level of anger amongst people who want to win. Hillarys comments about bernie, nobody likes them, cant win. Thats, that only exists to help donald trump. Maybe hillary doesnt know that. But it was divisive, it was cruel, and it was a lie. Sherry, here are the numbers. Biden and sanders are really neck and neck. Right now the latest monmouth poll, biden 23, sanders 21, buttigieg 16, warren 15 and down from there. Anybody could become the nominee. Would you be prepared to fully support joe biden as the nominee . If he gets the nomination. But, you know, i think this is all reaction to bernies strength right now. I mean, this is a reaction from the dnc because of bernies strength. What does the dnc have to do . When they allow another candidate in people make a big deal about it. You mean bloomberg. Yeah. Theyre going to make a big deal about an argument or somebody booing. That is just a reaction to bernies ground swell of support. And its growing every day. I just left my neighborhood, and i had a bernie knocker, and i already had a bernie sign, you know, in my lawn. Theyre checking the list, and theyre checking it twice. Im here to tell you. All this stuff really tonigdoes matter. Because we know the bernie surge is real, because hes authentic, consistent, and because hes going to win. What if he doesnt . What then . Do you believe your friends who are part of, you know, the world of Bernie Sanders supporters will move on then to general election nominee and be enthusiastic supporters, no matter who it is . I can only speak for myself. Heres the thing. I will support the democratic nomination because anythings better than whats going on in washington, d. C. Were not focussed on that, because we know right now that bernie is ahead. Bernie is ahead, you know, and bernies going to show up big and strong in the caucuses, and were going to win this caucus. Lets round this out. We dont want it to be a candidate just about these two. Brittany, as youre talking to people around the world, is this what youre hearing that this is a bernie biden, twoperson race or broader than that . Elizabeth warren has had big events. Theres buttigieg support, other people, do you get the sense that anyone else, bloomberg, anybody else has momentum . I think its much bigger than that. Polls were telling us one thing in 2016 and we got a very different result. Ultima ultimately we wont know who people like until they head into the ballot box. Mostly there is Energy Around saying thank you, next to 2016. We know what happens when people of good conscience who want the same result end up fighting with each other. It leaves a gaping hole for right wing racists to walk through. Folks are not trying to relitigate 2016 or repeat 2016. We havent figured out how to make sure everybodys vote counts when they come to the ballot box in 2020. Lets get our priorities together and make sure every voice is heard in this election. Erin, your News Organization is really focussing on what women care about. Mmhm. What are you hearing back as you are talking to people out there on the campaign trail . What are women telling you that they want to see happen . Women are very concerned about who they feel is going to be the best candidate to beat president trump. Do they care whether its a woman . No. I mean, not necessarily. But that is not to say that they are, they are very adamant, the women im talking to, that a woman can win. But there are certainly some that have some concerns about that. Yeah. And so that is the electability argument that youve heard from Amy Klobuchar and senator warren who has an ad out saying she can win, trying to reassure those women who may like candidates like warren or cho klobuchar but need convincing on the lengthbilielectability argu. But their top priority seems to be beating this president. The influence of bloomberg, what impact do you thinks having on all this. I dont think its having any impact here except for antis pa tory dread. What will the iowa caucus mean when he is really in the race instead of a tv commercial . The overwhelming feeling i get on all the other issues is dread. Uncertainty. Whats going to happen next with my health care . Whats the next lunacy to come down the pipe . Whats the next bunch of emails going to show about who hes selling the country to . Nobodys got their feet under them right now. And i think youre going to wind up because of that seeing a lot of people throwing punches in the dark because it makes them feel safe. The thing about this is the opposite of 2008 in that in 2008 when out on the campaign trail, there was excitement and anticipation and people believed they were going to win. All i hear around this country right now is dread right now, dread and fear. Thank you for being here. Thank you so much for being here. Brittany, thank you, of Charlie Pierce and erin haynes stick around. Up next, the political sage who predict predicted 2017s big blue wave tells us what to expect. 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And now we need to get back to work. [ applause and band playing ] only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Itpatrick mahomes and then. High powered chiefs offense. Touchdown face the 49ers suffocating defense. Unbelievable on the worlds biggest stage. The only place to watch it all is on fox and the fox sports app. Superbowl 54. February 2nd. Xfinity customers, to watch in 4k this sunday say 4k into your x1 voice remote. We have this unique, unique opportunity to see, see everybody. I mean, and if you dont go out, then just, youre just blowing yourself. Im going to do some more research this weekend, but i mean, honestly, it will probably come to the day of. Theres just so many to choose from. Its really hard to know. With two days to go until the Iowa Caucuses many voters say theyr theyre undecide. Who will come out on top . We must know the answer now. Joining me now to read the tea leaves, an election whisperer who called the 2018 elections months before voters went to the polls. With the Wassen Center for public policy. I cant take it anymore. I have high anxiety. Im drinking all this coffee, this caffeine is really bad for me. I need to know whos going to win the Iowa Caucuses. I need to know now. Its one of the hardest things to predict, and especially this cycle. One of the things ive been anticipating for many months now, i let my 2020 forecast out in july, but i have been long anticipating to see the turnout in iowa, because im expecting historic turnout, something that exceeds the really high turnout of 2008s cycle, and because of that. Mmhm. And i am pretty sure thats what well see. We really, its very hard to anticipate whats going to happen. Because were going to be looking at a very different electorate than what were used to in that iowa caucus electorate. Let me go through the polls at this point. Im not sure how meaningful they are at this point. But you have the Iowa Monmouth University poll that shows joe biden a skosh ahead. And Amy Klobuchar, those are the only people in double digits. Then tom steyer. Then you have the Monmouth University poll, which is whats the most important to likely caucus goers. Theyre firmly decided, open to changing their top choice, dont know or no first choice. Only 47 say they are firmly decided on who theyre going to pick. So a lot of people are open to changing. Then we go to the poll with Bernie Sanders on top of that one by one percentage point, literally the margin of error, then they go down, joe biden, Elizabeth Warren, Mike Bloomberg is fourth. Then we go to the nbc wall street journal poll, priorities in choosing a candidate. Best chance to beat donald trump overwhelmingly is what people care about. Proposes large scale policy changes. Will continue president obamas policies and agendas, is there a way with all of this data to figure out that its the priorities people care about the most, if your priority is beating donald trump youre just a pundit. How does anyone decide who to vote for . Especially when you consider this. If you ask a Bernie Sanders supporter, theyre going to tell you a sanders type candidate, a warren candidate, thats kind of candidate that has the best chance of beating trump. And on the other side, youre going to hear that its a biden type, maybe a buttigieg or klobuchar type, somebody who might be more attractive to those more moderate voters. That is more electable. So electability is in the eyes of the voter. You have to keep that in mind. Everyone wants to beat trump. But everyone solves that equation quite differently. And usually depending on what their own preferences are. One other thing i would say about the polling. We do know that it is basically a statistical tie. That has been a very reliable conclusion from all of the reliable quality polls. Were going to get our final se seltzer poll. Maybe biden will be a little ahead or