In New Hampshire and South Carolina too from the same series of polls. That is the statistical prelude to tonights debate, here in dedes Moines Center were sitting. Donald trump is not planning to be at this fox news debate. Hes holding his own event to raise money for veterans. For the other white house hopefuls on the republican side, a high stakes evening of cut, thrust and hail marys. John, what are you looking for in the trumpless debate. Im looking for how many different kinds of weapons are deployed against ted cruz, and how many actually cutlasser rate or bruise him over the evening. Hes going to on the target on stage tonight as the co frontrunner with donald trump off the stage. Everyone will try to take down ted cruz. I think the target will be marco rubio. Hes the strongest of the establishment candidates. You look at the other people on the stage. Bush, christie, rubio, especially, kasich especially, they have to stop marco rubio, who is now possibly going to come out with a strong third place finish, and they need to stop him. Cruz may have a relatively light that would be if that were true, i would have to eat my hat. I dont think thats going to happen. Hes on the down slope. People see him as having some nullner ability. With rubio on the rise, there is no doubt rubio is rising. I said some people think maybe he could slip into second place. Now people outside rubios world, looking at the polling data, cruz falling, rubio rising. A ton of establishment vote in this caucus that has not been accounted for as of now. All of these establishment candidates, in talking to the christie people and the bush people and of a course the kasich people, hes going to be the top candidate here. Slow him down and not let him come out of here with a head of steam. Cruz and rubio, theyve been the best debate tors. Watch them go at it tonight. Im looking forward to that. All right, turning now to that trumpthon, as everyone is fully aware, republican rivals, the donald says hell be at Drake University in an auditorium less than five miles away from the main debate. Mike huckabee, which is ostensibly a nonprofit organization, that group, however has been under fire this week that it spends a sizable chunk of the donations it receives on lavishes conferences instead of helping veterans. Given all these variables, all these buildup, is there a chance that this event will backfire on trump or at least fall plat. I think the debate with trump a big attraction. I think a lot of interest in iowa and around the country. Without trump, a whole new dynamic. It will be fascinating to see without the will it be a debate or will they give stump speeches. The trump event, he does not do bad events. His events are entertaining. There may be, they have had to put it together at the last minute. There may be a lack of energy. I think the debate, they talked about a split screen. Were talking about picture in picture. The debate in the big box, trump in the little box. A little chance there is this is maybe the most outlandish bold thing he has done, walking away from the debate, giving the finger to fox news, its clear everyone is going to cover, everyone but fox news that s i think there a chance that unless trump does Something Special that people will come away and say really, all that hubbub to give us that. Its possible. But i dont think, even if thats the case, even worst case, low energy event. The debate is good. Trump will not pay a price for it. I dont think it will hurt trump, but it could be a damp screen. The war has escalated over the last 24 hours, since trump decided he was not going to the debate. Hardened on both sides. Donald trump junior, thats the son of the candidate, called fox news, childish, and on cnn, Campaign Manager suggested that fox news should have disclosed that they have a daughter that works for the rubio campaign. In turn, fox says trump was wrong when he said that the ad rates dropped when they said he wasnt going to be in the debate. To get a sense of how exhausting this back and forth is, look at how trump handled the issue on the Oreilly Factor on fox, as he was talking about how he thrives under pressure. Im only doing it because i agreed to do it last week. Otherwise i wouldnt have done it. But donald, you have to understand, number one, kellys question was within journialist particular bounds. I disagree. Thats good. You won the debate. Thats what america is about. Dont waulk away from it. Bill, lets talk about something important. This is not that important. Lets talk about something more important. Okay, so john, assuming trump doesnt show up at the debate, who has the current upper hand and does it matter after tonight . I think it matters. But lets just say this. First lets start with the question of whether trump is or not going to show up tonight. I think there is there was some subetter than 50 50 chance that he will show up. Will you w i think it makes it very unlikely hell show up, and i do this it matters, because if he is decleared the winner, hell proved himself to be bigger force. Fox is obviously going to be fascinated and interested in seeing what the ratings are. I think if theyre low, they may have to go back, as they did once again. With their tail between their legs, to trooum to try to make nice. Look, oreilly, to some extent, fox and friends, theyre kind of their own entities. Theyre able to have relationships with gusts that transcend. I dont think the network over all will be soured going forward, because one of the things about trump, hes willing to forgive and forget. Very short memory. Whatever is good for trump, ale do. He doesnt care about the past. Thats a good trait in this, because at some point, if hes the nominee, hes going to want fox on his side again. When we come back, well clean up our barack fest with bernie. And guess who mark saw on the campaign trail today with buba. Youll see after this. Does printing from your tablet to your wireless printer give you a jolt of confidence . Then you might be gearcentric. Right now, get this hp printer for 50 off office depot officemax. Gear up for great ®. Today Bloomberg Politics breakfast in this room, hosted by our colleague, al hunt, Bernie Sanders showed a rare flash of anger when he was asked by al about whispers from clinton alleys that the Sanders Campaign may bus people in on caucus night. The clinton people say that they are in places like ames and iowa city, theyre worried that a number of out of state people may show up at the caucus and make a major effort to make sure thats not the case. Really . Is that what theyre saying . You talk about negative stuff . Really. Based on what did they say that . I dont know. Based on david brocks, long history of integrity. The man who tried to destroy anita hill. Is this where this is coming from. Everyone of you knows. You know it. Everyday youre being flooded by all this negative stuff from the secretary clintons super pac. Thats the first ive ever heard of it. I dont want my integrity and honesty to be impugned. I have no idea who says this. This a lie. An absolute lie. Okay, so this race is neck in neck. Weve got new polling out, shows its as toss up. The ads are negative without mentioning the names, clear shots with sanders, Goldman Sachs. What do you think about the risks of the negativity, in this place, iowa, nice. Is either of the sides right now gone over the line that might hurt them on caucus night. This race has become more tense, because it is a oneonone battle. There are so many different combinations in the republican race, and single toward a single candidate. You saw it in sanders. Clinton people feeling better. Theyve got allies in the state. Well ae talk about that in a second. Bernie sanders did with the Washington Post a couple of days ago and he suggested that the Clinton Campaign doesnt have as much fire and energy. Taking the ad and put it all over the state. Passion and emotion. There is the quote there from senator sanders, again the clinton folks have taken that quote and like a football team, tacking it up in the locker room all over the state. This is intense. You see it in senator sanders, and i think although there might not be explicitly negative ads. Heres the thing, the Sanders Campaign runs Goldman Sachs ad and talks about speaking fees. Both sides have gone negative from that way. Eight years ago here, by this time in the Iowa Caucuses, three clinton surrogates had publicly said coke dealer in college. Thats nasty. We have nothing like that in this race so far. Youre right. Its been gentle with, and nothing i think that is going to turn iowaians off the race. Accusing each other of being negative. Earlier today, i caught up with former president clinton in waverly iowa, in what we like to call clinton classic. Take a look at the sweater he wore. It got quite a big of attention in the room. The most news worthy thing i think was not actually what former president clinton said. He made his standard remarks. It was one of the people traveling with president clinton, democratic operative Michael Hooley. Hes widely known as a mimaistr helping both al gore president ial campaigns back from the brink. Heres what happened when i ran into Michael Hooley. This means its very serious. Why are you here . Volunteer. Volunteer . A long way from home. Mr. President , Michael Hooley is here. Why is that . Why is he here . Hes good to have around, isnt he . Yeah, a man if hes here, what does that mean for hillary. Something good. Everything he touches. Hes like her, anything he ever touches. Now, hooleys Associates Say hes here to travel with president clinton to keep him up to speed on whats going on in iowa, not to take over Clintons Campaign field operation. Be that as it may, and there are other clinton people coming, marshall is helping go down to goor. There are other people coming. The fact that Michael Hooley, who is such a big deal, the fact that he is here, is that a good or bad sign. Its both good and bad. Look, lets be clear. Accuse of being too far on the inside, but Michael Hooley, american politics, and then more accurately called him the winston wolf. Comes when there a mess to clean up, and cleans everything up. Thats what Michael Hooley has done consistently for many, many democrats. Its good news in the sense that hes very good at what he does, but bad in the sense that you dont call him until youre in trouble. I talked to five different clinton people and they all say hes not here to take over. Lucky charm. Just how happy. Everything he touches turns to gold. A democratic nomination fights. Even if all hes doing is playing hearts. It does show the fact that the clintons who where are our people. Having people fly to the state and help them at the end, we saw the sanders operation this morning over at a hotel up the street. They continue to be about six people. And so the scale of what the clintons have is big. Right. Always shows loyalty. It makes them feel good. Human nature. Two more things about that. The case like there is a usually its only when the clintons feel theyre in jeopardy. Not necessarily going down the tubes. All hands on deck. Usually in jeopardy moments. Second of all, gets to the kwef confidence and politics. Lucky charm kind of a joke, but a real thing for a candidate. Coming up, david kochle of bush world. Right after this. E trade is all about seizing opportunity. So im going to take this opportunity to go off script. So if i wanna go to jersey and check out shotsy tuccerellis portfolio, whats it to you . Or im a scottish mason whose assets are made of stone like me heart. Papa youre no son of mine or perhaps its time to seize the day. Dont just see opportunity, seize it applause seize it you know the symptoms when they start. Abdominal pain. Urgent diarrhea. Now theres prescription xifaxan. Xifaxan is a new ibsd treatment that helps relieve your diarrhea and abdominal pain symptoms. And xifaxan works differently. Its a prescription antibiotic that acts mainly in the digestive tract. Do not use xifaxan if you have a history of sensitivity to rifaximin, rifamycin antibiotic agents, or any components of xifaxan. 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Bring you together to talk about markey rubio. Excellent. My favorite topic. Tell me where you think it stands right now nationally. You have to ask the rubio campaign. Youve been observing them. Do you think theyre strong dpl theyre probably doing fine in iowa. Were focused more on New Hampshire were strong and South Carolina. You have to talk to them. We keep hearing from the rubio people, not the campaign itself, but there is a chance that rubio will pass cruz in iowa. Is that what they said in the press conference . There is people supporting him. Is that possible . No. Its not possible. Possible but highly unlikely. First or second. First or second. Trump list debate tonight. I said that it affected your man, ted cruz more than anybody. Tell me what the debate is going to be like tonight . How will it be different assuming trump is not on the stage. Donald trump will be on the stage. Look, there is we have to rip up the show. There is 20 million in one audience, where do you think donald trump is going to be . You dont think there will be Television Cameras at his event. But hes center hell come back. So first of all, you think hell be on the debate stage. I do. Unequivocally, huge mistake on his part, he screwed this up completely and all good for you. This is the iowa debate. These people wanted this debate and now hes not going to be in the iowa debate. Let me ask you this question. Smart or dumb move by trump. Dumb. Its not about trump. Its about the voters in iowa. By the way, who gets a lot of his or her information from fox news. So i dont think its a smart move at all. Im not sure i agree with rick on him showing up. I know my boss bet 20 he will there be tonight. Make the bet with you . I was standing in the room, but i dont think i would be happy to collect on it if he loses. Just explain it to me, though. If donald trump gets coverage of this event from msnbc, cnn, cspan, ever other cable network, everybody in the world covers it, how is that not a bigger audience . How is that no, its just not. The fox audience is going to be the biggest audience, combining Everything Else he might do tonight. By the way, an opportunity for candidates to talk about real things, s substance, how were going to go after isis and defeat them. Its time to talk about the issues. Vote voters in iowa are serious. We have to move some of these games that are being played. The season is almost over. A few days away when voters have their say. They had a video of your boss in an event saying that if donald trump wins iowa, he may not be to stop. Is that what your boss thinks . If so, is that a message hell continue to share with the voters . I think if he wins iowa, hell be difficult to stop. I dont think anybody disagrees with that. Im suspicious of his voters that come out. They predict a turnover of over 300,000. There is not a pied piper in the Iowa Caucuses. It may be a record, maybe 130. No increased voter registration. I dont see signs. Well see. But look, one thing about the donald trump, he did bring the audience to the debates, but you know what, theyve watched all the way through. So i think theyre going to stay. Theyre going to stay with the debates. Thats a good thing. We didnt think they would watch the debates when it would be 6 million, 24 million, tonight, im guessing over 20 million again, because people are in the process now. I want to you be a little bit honest here, just for a little. We are. For a moment in this interview. I know trumps decision not to come, i saw you all coming in the building after it was announced, and you were plainly discome bob you lated. Do a little trump for us here. Im not going to do it here. How do you change . You have to do both. Debate prep as if hes going to be on the strange. Trump and trumpless. It takes more time. Different, you know, strategies. Different dynamics when hes on the stage and when hes not. Different supporters, theyve said tonight is the night bush has to have a big night. He has had better debates of late, but none where he has dominated i think its fair to say. Is he read tonight. Pro projects the kind of person . I think hes been strong in every debate. If donald trump is not in the debate, it will allow more time for serious issues. Talking about issues. Talking about policy, talking about the things American People care about. And if weve got that opportunity instead of the whole side show of donald trump and all the celebrity and all the craziness that comes along with that, i think governor bush will do well tonight. You know know as well as any operative we know, and weve been watching the establishment candidates here, none of them really gathered up that still really big chunk in iowa. Between now and the caucuses, is there a channels of a surprise . Bush, christie, your guy, christie, somebody else, is there a chance that well see a big surprise on monday night and the establishment comes together and puts them in third, second, makes them a st