Tonight on a very special allnew selfhelp episode of with all due respect, a candidates diy. First an everymans guide to todays polls. A new National Survey once again Shows Hillary clinton leading donald trump by double digits, this one is from marist that shows her leading 15 points, 48 to 33 . Wow this on the heels of last nights fox news survey that shows her with a sixpoint swing in her advantage since june, up in that poll by ten points, 49 to 39 . In the fox poll she no longer trails trump on key traits such as who is considered more honest and trustworthy. The trend towards clinton is happening not just nationally but in four new key state polls out today, each one in a state trump has mentioned in the past week as key to his victory vision. We have a lot of states in play right now. I think were going to do great in michigan. Were going to do great in pennsylvania. In New Hampshire, im leading by a lot. Im doing great. And im going to win in florida. All right. So hows trump actually doing in those states . Suffolk has clinton up by six points in florida, florida poll. Wbor has her up 17 in New Hampshire. A poll by Franklin Marshall says their lead is 11 points in pennsylvania. In michigan, clintson is beatin trump 41 to 31 . Michigan is not a mustwin state for trump but if true, this could foreshadow real problems for trump in the midwest, the rust belt and other states with large suburban populations. Only 65 of socalled strong republicans in michigan are now supporting their partys nominee. That problem is most prominent in the suburbs around detroit. In the rim counties, libertarian candidate gary johnson is pulling 16 of all republican votes, more than double what hes getting statewide. It comes almost entirely from trump defections that is driven largely by white republican men. A similar thing happening in western michigan as well. So mark, we always like to say that polls are only snapshots and these are really bad polls for donald trump. My question is just how bad are they . Polls are just a snapshot. I just said that. This is a snapshot of a severed arm. But the arm is off. So they have to put the arm back on. I mean, the only good news for trump in these is that its a wakeup call for him to change his ways. He loves polls, talks about polls all the time. We all know that. He cant be in denial now. He can denounce one or two as being off but this is a body of polling data that is derivative of, the direct result of his poor performance and the successful Democratic Convention. He has august to fix it. Look, i think theres a big lesson here. You are always getting a bump coming out of your convention if its wellstaged and the Democratic Convention was. In combination as you suggested, bad if you are on the opposite side to crater in light of historically horrible way at exactly the same time your opponent is rising. I think the problem for trump here is that these numbers can now lock in for a long time. He might not be able to move these numbers in an appreciable way until the first debate, a month and a half away. These are bad. They are not just bad, the National Numbers big and shows trumps floor is lower than we thought, but the state polls, in particular the attributes where trump had a lead on clinton, and shes closed the gap or overtaken him, i would be freaking out if i was in the Trump Campaign right now. They have money now. Best news of the week for him raising money. Do you really want to spend money on august advertising to try to fix your poll numbers in august . Probably not. When everyone is watching the olympics. Probably not. This is scared republicans thats given the never trumpers a big i told you so moment to say this guy is bad news for the entire party. You cant assume he will get polling numbers that are good any time soon. J right. Its freaking everybody out at a moment when they are already freaked out. Last 24 hours have brought new reports of republican discord because of mr. Trump including two congressmen who are just the latest to distance themselves from the Party Standard bearer. Illinois congressman adam kidsinger said after the events of last week he doesnt think he can support trump in november. Out in colorado, Republican Congressman Mike Kaufmann is running a tv ad vowing that if he wins reelection he will stand up to trump if trump is president. Still, trumps team is fighting back. They were out in force today. Campaign chairman Paul Manafort was on cbs this morning and tried for the second day in a row to move his campaign or at least the perception of the campaign back on track. Were comfortable with where we are organizationally. What we are not comfortable with is the narrative the media seems to be taking which is building a story line that the democrats are controlling the race. The drop in poll numbers were expected. In two weeks we think that will even out if we are on message. He will support paul ryan. He said he will work with paul ryan. Theres no issue about that. He didnt take a position in the primary. Hes not taking a position in many primaries. Thats not the news. The news is the two of them working together to elect Republican Congress and republican president and i think you will see that. Also coming to trumps defense in a way, paul ryan. In a radio interview with wtaq in green bay, despite trumps refusal to so far endorse him, ryan stood by the nominee. The only endorsements that i want are those of my own employers here in the first Congressional District and thats really what my focus is. When i did support donald i said at that time and ever since then if i see a situation where our conservative principles are being distorted, im going to stand up for those conservative principles. None of these things are ever blank checks. That goes with any situation, in any kind of race. So that blank check thing a little ominous. Ryan mostly supportive. At a Campaign Stop today in virginia beach, trumps number one defender mike pence, his running mate, who did break with trump yesterday in saying he would endorse ryan, sided with trump suggesting the ryan thing was biased on his friendship. He did not endorse john mccain or kelly ayotte ahead of their primaries, just as trump failed to endorse them. Another news cycle has come and gone. Where do things stand between trump and the Republican Party . I will Say Something that maybe controversial in the context of this discussion, because given how horrible many of the last few days for trump are, you could say today was not a terrible day. These polling numbers we just discussed, though, i think are going to hit like a ton of breaks for republicans who are as i said, at the end of our last discussion, we are already freaking out for a lot of reasons. Now they are seeing maybe the signs that the bottoms falling out. I dont think any of them will listen to Paul Manafort and say we will be back on message soon and this will all turn itself around. I think if you start to see actual data that shows trump is bottoming out and could be in the low 30s, thats a bad day for trump and its not going to do anything to help him stitch the party back together. A lot of republicans i have talked to today look at the sort of fox news mantra and trump mantra saying the polls are all crooked, look at the crowds look at the crowd size, look how bad Hillary Clinton is. They are donors who are helping trump who are now quietly not helping trump, working on getting some of them on this program. There are politicians who are now strategizing with their staffs to say how do we get untangled from trump. Mike kaufmann is not the only one who does this. Mike pence is doing work to patch things up. Trump is going to show some more discipline, im confident of that. We will talk later about how much that means. Right now, nothing matters with the party as much as the polls. The polls are poison. The polls are about their selfinterests. If i did your thing where i go to a camera, i would say please, republicans, do not talk about rigged polls and crooked polls and how the polls are remember 2012. Just remember, you all said that stuff then and you were wrong and sddisastrously wrong. Democrats are trying to make every effort to weigh republicans down with trumps unpopularity. American bridge is rolling out tv ads targeting republican candidates in pennsylvania, wisconsin, missouri, north carolina, nevada and florida. Some of the republicans are almost certain to distance themselves one way or the other from trump in the coming weeks. But there is one incumbent who got off to an early start. Back in march, mark kirk of illinois said he would support trump if he became the nominee. By june, kirk had reversed his stance. His campaign has now run tv ads in illinois quoting that kirk has bucked his party, saying donald trump is not fit to be commander in chief. Looking at the kirk example, and looking at Everything Else we know at this moment, what do you think the risks and rewards are today, as of now, today, for distancing yourself for a republican who wants to try to steer clear of trump . Big distance between senators and house members. Most Republican House members are in jerrymanderred districts. Too many votes they need will be from conservatives. Much harder for a house member to do it unless they are in a swing district. The senators can do it. Mark kirk was considered the most, not only the most endangered republican incumbent senator, hes now competitive in part because he has distanced himself from trump. I will just say, we talked about the New Hampshire poll earlier. In that poll, trump down double digits. So is kelly ayotte, incumbent republican senator. She cannot survive trump losing by six. Look, you have, just to unpack the thing you said at the beginning, the house candidates are all really tied to trump. The National Mood moves the house races around. Their districts are more republican. Senate races do make their own weather to a greater degree. I think a lot of those states we just mentioned where american bridge is advertising, you will see republicans. They have no choice. The risks are small, the rewards are high. Unless he comes roaring back. If hes down by seven or more it will be necessary. It wont be a risk reward calculus. They will have to. When we come back, what discipli disciplined donald trump would look like. Soon, shell be bingestudying. Now she writes mostly in emoji. Soon, shell type the best essays in the entire 8th grade. Today, the only spanish words he knows are burrito and enchilada. Soon, hell take notes en espanol. Get back to great with the right gear. From the place with the experts. Office depot officemax. Gear up for school. Gear up for great. Introduces new, easytoswallow tablets. So now, there are more ways, for more people. To experience. Complete protection from frequent heartburn. Nexium 24hr. The easytoswallow tablet is here. But you may experienceng time. Common discomforts. Introducing trunatal from one a day. Trunatal is a new line of products designed to address discomforts with nausea relief and regularity support. Add trunatal from one a day for relief and support you can trust. Guess what . Were still talking about donald trump. Much of the unrest within the Republican Party stems from the expectation by gop leaders and donors that as donald trump entered the general election, we mature, become a more predictable, scripted and overall disciplined candidate. That of course has proved to be Wishful Thinking for the most part although it appears the republican nominee himself now sees the problem that other people see. Heres what he said yesterday in an interview with cbs 12 in daytona beach, florida. Many people in the gop who support your candidacy are advising you to focus your attacks on Hillary Clinton. They say you are being baited into battles that distract you from the message. I think thats probably right. More focus on Hillary Clinton. Shes a disaster. We will focus more on Hillary Clinton. Absolutely. What, what . So trump seems to finally get what hes been advised to do. Says hes going to adhere to it. If he does, we know hes not going to be the most disciplined candidate of all time but what would a more disciplined trump look like . Well, in the realm of fantasy, you would have a candidate who talked about the economy, would talk about i mean real world. Lets say theres some improvement. How would he conduct himself . I dont even understand how to answer the question. The hypothetical seems like we have heard this so many times that trump is going to become more disciplined, hes going to stay on message. You dont think being down 15 points in a National Poll will focus his mind . You would think. You would think. You would think it would. What would it look like . It would look like him making his economic arguments, making Foreign Policy arguments and at least mitigating some of the stuff where he just cant control himself. They are never going to stop him from riffing at these rallies or doing rallies. Hes doing the speech monday on the economy. They just have to make him go out with an index card and read sound bites on Hillary Clinton and the economy and hope thats what gets covered. He finds it impossible, though, the thing about the khan controversy was that he does not hes incapable of not hitting back at anybody who hits at him. He punches down, he punches sideways. I think he could go give speeches with cards, he could do that, but the world will still spin. People will still attack him. He will find it i just have never seen any evidence that hes not finds he can resist the urge to attack anybody who attacks him however appropriate or inappropriate those attacks are. That will keep happening . Yes, of course it will keep happening. Lets talk about Donald Trumps wife, melania, who is back in the news. Front and center. It all started last weekend, when the New York Post published nude photographs melania took as a model in 1995 when she says she was living in the u. S. On a foreign visa. She was of course born in slovenia and moved to the u. S. In the mid 90s. There have since been questions about exactly what type of visa she had and whether or not she was permitted to work in america at the time those photos were taken. Politico, new york magazine, other news outlets have all written stories about this and whether her past contradicts what donald trump has been preaching about immigration on the campaign trail. So spouses typically not considered fair game. Certainly the candidates nominees insist they are not fair game. In this instance, should the story be an exception to that rule or not . Well, she tweeted out a statement earlier today saying that shes been in full compliance with the immigration laws of this country, period. At all times. Without answering some of the factual questions that these stories have raised. I think this is a tough call. She did put herself forward at the convention giving a speech, but all spouses do that. And i have not seen scrutiny of this kind of jill biden, obviously bill clintons kind of an exception, ann romney. You have not seen this level of scrutiny. At the same time, immigration is trumps signature issue. Yes. So i think its a pretty close call. I think it needs to be done in a careful, thoughtful way. I think the Trump Campaign, although i understand why they are probably a little annoyed by this, needs to answer the questions in a calm, straightforward way because these are matters of law. I know that bill clinton is a special case because the Clinton Foundation is i believe a legit area of journalistic inquiry. Donald trump has attacked bill clinton not just on the foundation, but over his personal life repeatedly over the course of many months. I dont like the idea that shouses should be fair game in some way. I think this is a legitimate issue for the reasons you said but the reality is it would be insane for the Trump Campaign to complain that Melania Trump is being subject to scrutiny on a policy matter when donald trump attacks bill clinton on personal matters in addition to questions of corruption. But it would be just great if shes on firm ground she says she is, they should just put out the facts and the press should use the kind of judgment that is normally used in questioning whether writing about spouses. I agree. As republicans are trying to sort out their family drama today, Hillary Clinton was out west in nevada promoting her jobs plan at an Electric Company in las vegas. Before holding a rally at a union hall this afternoon. Yesterday and today, she has made an argument about trumps clothing line not being made in america. Hillary is doing all kinds of stuff and we have had this crazy period. How well do you think the campaign has been capitalizing on trumps very very very bad ve stretch . They are living by the idea whats yours is mine and they are going after working class white men in particular with the bus trip. Mathematically if she can get a higher percentage of working class white men, the elections over. She has been really smart not making a national thing but in battleground states where there are a lot of White Working Class men, really making a strong economic argument to them. They have also i think been smart in that they have, as trump has gotten himself in so much trouble with the khans, im not saying they have been restrained, they have obviously been criticized by the left and by democrats all over the place, but they have followed by the wisdom of when someone is dig