State jam session. First polls keep up tempo. We can barely keep one the onslaught of surveys that flooded our inbox today. With less than a week before eday, florida remains a razor thin race. In one poll, clinton is up by 1 point. In the other she is up by 2 points. In ohio donald trump is ahead by five percentage points. In North Carolina accident clinton leads by 3. In pennsylvania, clinton leads by 5 points in one poll. In wisconsin, clinton is still up by 6. While her advantage in colorado has shrunk to 3 points. In virginia shes up by 5 percentage points. And finally in arizona, the state just last week that her campaign was talking about winning, Donald Trump Holds a 5point advantage. We have a new Bloomberg Politics purple slice poll, National Poll of independent voters. It shows clinton with a small lead. 3027 . That is a lot of data. So youve been out on the campaign trail. Youve been in wisconsin. Youre in iowa today. Rudolph giuliani, bill clinton, all over the place. In this jumble of data, as you look at i on the campaign trail. What is standing out to you right now . Well, if the two campaigns agree, trump and clinton, that her lead has narrowed nationally in the key Battle Ground states. He and i both have the same experience every four years. If your Campaign Says youre up 3, you say we have a solid 3point lead. If youre down 3, you say were closing the gap. So i would say that donald trump has, everyone agrees, has closed the gap. But there is no under the current polling. He has more to do if hell be in the game in less than a week. Right. You look at this and one of the biggest, one of the biggest changes is that a week ago, smart people that we know were saying that the only suspense left in this election was whether Hillary Clinton would end up between 350 and 400 electoral votes. Nobody is talking like that anymore. You look at all the battleground state polls. The states that Hillary Clinton needs on win, she still has, shes where she has been if you look at the whole of the last three months. She has a small but stable lead in a lot of battleground states. As you said, right now, if you look at all this data, theres not really a path for donald trump. Again, he is within the margin of error. He is within striking distance of a lot of places but he is more behind than he is, narrowing the gap to the place where he would want to be six days out. Yeah. Even as clinton plays defense in states like wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania by going herself. She is still, she can look at the map and say, unless theres a Huge National shock, she is going to win enough states. Hold most of the blue states and win enough blue states and maybe North Carolina on get to 270. So she can, barring a National Shock and many states ending up different than the public data, shes got it. The way you have to look at this on some level, six days out, whose hand would you rather be playing . Her hand or his hand . No doubt you would rather be playing her hand. Right. So lets talk about this. Im here, paul ryan doing an event, not for donald trump but for the local congressman here. Iowa, like a lot of battleground states, it is hard to move a few inches around without seeing some Major National player, a president ial candidate or one of the top surrogates. And all Everyone Wants to know here in iowa or elsewhere, is answer to one question. Is trump cutting into clintons lead or is he not . We just talked about, he is cutting into the lead but not enough to get all the way there. For a while, ive been saying there are certain things he would need to do if hell be in a position to pull off an upset in this president ial contest. A surge in National Polls was one of the things. Weve seen it in the abc news tracking poll but not a significant surge in any other major National Polls. He had to show more message discipline. Towed lock into some clinton controversies and there had to be this expansion of the electoral map. So if you look at my whole check list, how many of those things has trump done . Not to go ahead but to put himself in the game. I think it is fair to say that about half of those. You could look at the check list and say that hes accomplished about half of them. Some of these things will be questions about what you meant with your language. What were not seeing is a surge in Donald Trumps polling standing. Thats not there. He is creeping into a more Competitive Position but not surging. Hes had a little luck. He has a little sense of momentum but he is still playing defense. He is not really driving. He is trying on drive but not really driving, to my mind, a really potent message of change. I know you have thoughts about this police are probably more nuances than mine. He is making some progress on that list. If you put it back up, i would stay two that are both keeping trump and his Supporters Energized but also maybe creating an illusion. The first thing on that list. Winning news cycles. Trump went weeks after the access Hollywood Tape. Hes won several in a row. That gives him momentum which is number 10. Talking on Rudolph Giuliani today, according the trump rally, looking at the rhetoric from the campaign, they can say a bunch of stuff ripped from the headlines every day that gives them a expense things are moving our way. Thats a positive for the republicans. It gives them a sense of upbeat spirit. But also a bit of an illusion. It can make them think the polls are tightening more than they are. Heres a really important thing that we dont discuss enough. We talk about early voting. We saw some polling last night. That suggests that Hillary Clinton is winning overwhelming when i the vote in florida. We cant know for sure. One of the things thats happening, even if all these things go trumps way, theres been a lot of votes cast already and Hillary Clinton may already have a substantial, maybe even decisive advantage in some states because of the early vote. All right. So both candidates are honing their closing pitch to voters in this final week. Donald trump is out with a new ad today called united. It show cases a more uplifted message than were used to seeing from the gop nominee who uses Convention Speech to describe a country with quote, violence in our streets and chaos in our communities. These days, trumps stump speech while still harping on the system also replete with optimistic rhetoric like this. Hillary clinton wants us to think small. Wants us to believe things cant change and wants our lives to revolve around washington, d. C. I am asking to you dream big, to push for bold change and to believe in a movement powered by the people and by their love of this great country. Im talking about politicians telling americans to defer their dreams to another day. When they really mean, another decade. America is tired of waiting. The moment is now. There is no challenge too great and no dream outside of our reach. There is not. There is no dream outside of our reach. Dont let anyone tell you it cant be done. The future lies with the dreamers. Not the cynics and not the critics. That was donald trump last night in wisconsin. Future lies with the dreamers. All right. Today at a rally in miami he repeated those lines but also returned to his goto topics. A Justice Department official involved in the clinton email probe apparently gave the Clinton Campaign a heads up about when congressional oversight hearings will take place and when clintons emails will be made public. As trump plays these duel roles of attack dog and motivational speaker, how much does it matter that hes added these dollups ofment on mix . Like a lot of things going right for trump. It is not decisive by any means but it is certainly helpful. I had one person who watched trump very closely after watching last nights speech saying, if that had been the speech he gave at the Convention Rather than the darker speech he gave. This would have been a much different race to the republicans during the summer so it is helpful. People like an optimistic president. Hillary clinton toggles back and forth between optimism and dark as well. He is rarely that optimistic as he was last night. Part of the problem when he strikes those notes, they sound so inconsistent and so discordant with the way in which hes campaigned for the last year and a half that they sound sort of false to me. And yes. I agree with you. This will be the third or fourth instance where we cited, if he started campaigning in a different way and in a disciplined way done it over the course of may or june, the campaign would be in a different place. He hasnt done that though. When you hear him talking about the dreamers and dreaming, you think, who is that guy . Not like, oh. Thats the donald trump that ive always known and loved. Yeah. Before he was a president ial candidate, i heard him talk optimistically like that quite a bit. Theres always been dark many there. Well see if he keeps up the optimism in the advertising. Next, Hillary Clinton continues. It comes when your Insurance Company says theyll only pay threequarters of what it takes to replace it. What are you supposed to do . Drive threequarters of a car . Now if you had Liberty Mutual new car replacement™, youd get your whole car back. I guess they dont want you driving around on three wheels. Smart. With Liberty Mutual new car replacement™, well replace the full value of your car. Liberty stands with you™. Liberty mutual insurance. A look into Hillary Clintons email server. A back handed way, president obama took a shot at the fbi chief. But also said that the recent move wont impact how voters feel about the president ial race. There is a norm that when there are investigations, we dont operate on innuendo, we dont operate on incomplete information, we dont operate on leaks. We operate based on concrete decisions that are made. The white house played down the president s remarks but they come a day after the fbi released old heavily redacted documents related to the 2001 investigation into bill clintons controversial president ial pardon. The fbi says that the posting was in response to a routine foya request. So what is going on . With the fbi and james comey and the president ial race . You and i are in agreement about the inappropriateness of what comey did in july, the inappropriateness of what he did on friday, and i think the fbi did yesterday. It is crazy. Just crazy that they are putting, that they are injecting themselves into the race in this way. The only way in which, well, i think its crazy. Number one. And number two, it is starting to then Clinton Campaign because it is making them such a ripe fat target for the campaign of discrediting that the democrats want to do. The thing yesterday was just, i mean, i cant figure out whats going on there. How the fbi is out of control. Whoever handles Public Affairs over there needs to take james comey aside and walk through remainder of the time between now and election day. Ive seen a few people defend him but for the most part, democrats continue to be aggressive. Clearly it went farther. I believe in the clinton Campaign Says that their date doesnt show any damage to them from comey. And even the republicans played down comey as a factor as opposed to the drum beat from the Affordable Care act as weve been discussing. Theres new wikileaks disclosures related to potential coordination between Justice Department and the clinton world and the state department and clinton world. I think those things will get a fair amount of attention pushed by the republicans in the next couple days. I have to say, if the doj manages to get through the emails from weiners computer before election day and they, whatever they show. I now feel like they almost have an obligation to report to the country on what they found or havent found. This whole thing, they got us into this mess with this vaguory and inwend over. They need to resolve it before election day in terms of what they find. Maybe they have something resolved enough to say. Right. All right. Donald trump has been spending an awful lot of time in traditionally democratic leaning states for a while. That didnt seem to bother the Clinton Campaign. In the final stretch, Hillary Clinton and her surrogates are spending valuable time in states, not just tossup states but also blue states that a week ago were considered safely, securely in her column. Today, Bernie Sanders and Chelsea Clinton are in wisconsin. Today, theyre heading to detroit. Vice President Biden will be in madison. We talked yesterday about how the Clinton Campaign is going on the air. 24 hours later, what more do we know . Well, i talked to the Clinton Campaign. They claim this is not panic or seeing the numbers crater. They believe it is prudent, given that they have a lot of surrogates and Hillary Clinton has a lot of money in her bank account to may defense in these states. The other thing is you have clinton supporters in places like michigan and wisconsin who are from the bed wetter category saying you need to fight to save this state or lose it. If they dont get what they want theyll often leak to the press that hillary isnt paying enough attention to our state. You cant overstate how many of that kind of howling occurs in the last days before a president ial election where the local democratic parties and local donors in various places start calling up and saying, my god, my god. Please send somebody. If you dont, it will be a disaster. So if you have the resources in terms of surrogates and the Financial Resources to be on the airing there is no good reason not to spend those resources. Both financial and human to try to calm them down and play defense to the extent defense is required. If you look at the big five, you have to say the run has solidified in both iowa, here, and in ohio. That still leaves for three of the big three to try to win. The silver state as i like to call it. Florida and North Carolina. And then of course. He would still be five short as we talk about all the time. So i think clinton is trying to hedge against a possible loss for trump for her somewhere that trump can make up with elsewhere. Up next, more from here in waterloo, iowa after this. [burke] at farmers, weve seen almost everything, so we know how to cover almost anything. Even a rodent ridealong. [dad] alright, buddy, dont forget anything [kid] i wont, dad. [captain rod] happy Tuesday Morning captain rod here. Its pretty hairy out on the interstate. Traffic is literally crawling, but there is some movement on the eastside overpass. Getting word of another collision. [burke] it happened. December 14th, 2015. And we covered it. Talk to farmers. We know a thing or two because weve seen a thing or two. We are farmers. Bumpadum, bumbumbumbum welcome back. I am here in iowa where news broke overnight that two Des Moines Area Police officers were ambushed in their patrol cars, fatally shot. It is captivating the state. I talk to the governor earlier about it today. Police arrested a man, a 46yearold earlier in connection with these shootings. He said that has been his focus. Tim kaine, bill clinton, canceled the event that was supposed to be set. But bill clinton will speak in des moines. As a political reporter here in this eastern part of the state. You have a governors senate race. The president ial. And this Eastern District which is a democratic district, an incumbent republican. House member paul ryan today, talk about how that house race might impact the president ial in this part of the state. It is an interesting race. He has the benefit of being one of the few tossup states or swing states leaning toward donald trump so he hasnt really been acting like hes vulnerable. This is a first term republican congressman in a grik voted overwhelmingly republican twice. What has he said twice, particularly after the access Hollywood Tape . He has been very clear in his support. He doesnt go out of his way to mention donald trump but when asked, he will say specific reply iowa is still behind donald trump. The conventional wisdom in the public polling suggests that clinton trump has a lead here and has had a lead. How much has this part of the state been engaged with the president ial race . Its been interesting. We havent seen much of the actual candidates. Weve seen more of the surrogates. And this is the second time were seeing bill clinton. So were getting more of the surrogates rather than the actual candidates. Okay. Thank you very much. Well though it back to you. Welcome back. Well cut away to Michael Steele, the form he chair of the republican party. Youre in washington, d. C. Give may sense on the basis of what you know right now. Weve been talking about the race. It is very fascinating. I dont know where the energy is coming from but donald trump seems to have garnered a great deal of energy. Listening to Kellyanne Conway, you