Transcripts For WCNC Mad Money 20160308 : vimarsana.com

WCNC Mad Money March 8, 2016

Marathon traded at 41. Oh, geez. Back then marathon seemed to be a logical takeover target and a fantastic fount of oil. The company had a huge amount of money to be one of the largest independent Oil Producers out there. Big eye with as. They put up spectacular numbers. Earnings peaking at 4. 48 a share in 2014. In 2015 they lost an astounding 3. 26 per share. Wow. Just like that. All the debt turned the stock from a market darling into a pariah. In october with the stock down more than 50 from highs marathon slashed the dividend by 76 in order to save 425 million in cash flow. Management indicated the quarter would come in better than expected. What happened . The stock jumped 5 on the news. It was a phony rally though. [ buzzer ] with oil plummeting to 26 the stock nose dived to 6 and oil then jaunted to 33 at the end of february, taking marathon back up to 8. 23. At the end of the day when it finished at 8. 23 the Company Announced an offering of 135 million shares in whats known as in the hole, meaning a substantial discount to the last sale. Marathon seemingly desperate for the cash needed to keep drilling and keep the bankers happy priced shares at 7. 65. Wow, a big discount to the last sale. So big institutions flocked to it. [ buy, buy, buy ] in the end the company was able to sell an extra 10 million shares. Ever since then with oil continuing to rally marathon stock has never flowed back. At 11 and change the bottom fishers got a 44 gain, a little more than a few weeks time. Thats phenomenal. Perhaps more phenomenal is about marathon and its bankers, those fears seem to have disappeared with the billion dollar plus secondary offer. It was diluted. Meaning when earnings come back, if they come back, each share makes less. The beautiful thing is the company will live to play again even if Oil Prices Stay lower longer. We have seen the deals before. Devon sold shares and that came right after the company stated it didnt need the money. Stock is now at 24. New fuel its nearly at 30. I can name another dozen of the oil deals all with similar results. All of the stock offerings do two things. They give the company cash to keep drilling and covering interest expenses and give the banks breathing room so as not to write down debts. The former is why the stock can pop considering an instant steroid that makes them better. The banks can rally, too. Oil related losses. If the companies can issue equity in the hole, so to speak, and so many guy boous make money on the deals why not expect it can happen to any player in the oil patch . For example, lets do speculation here ourselves. We know thats chesapeake owes billions in debt. Its stock was at 1. 50 one month ago. As the deals played out and oil rallied even with natural gas at 17year lows it is possible chesapeake which is 5. 23 could pull a marathon and raise money to cover debts that may come due in the next year or two. We dont know when or even if the equity offerings will occur but we know the stocks have run far further than where they were the day before the deals started. You can understand why the higher chesapeake stocks go the deal makes everyone happy. That argument is a huge fear for short sellers. The stocks until recently. The marginal Oil Companies looked like they were to go under. They didnt need to worry about it. It could be positive. As was the case for many tech deals the last two years. They were insider selling. All bets are off if oil comes down. Safe to say what you are seeing is a capitalist system at work. While there have been virtually no ipos of late these secondary offerings allow companies to raise money as surely as an ipo and the companies play another day. This is not just isolated to oil. We have been experienced extraordinary moves. No commodity has beaten down more than iron ore. Its falling from excess supply for years now. This weekend however the Chinese Government announced aggressive goals for better growth. Those who have been betting against iron frantically scrambled to cover. Wow. Record. The impact once again allows the Iron Ore Companies to do the same thing it is Oil Companies have been doing as their stocks soar. Valet, the brazilian ore producer that now can help fix the Balance Sheet if it wants to. Copper, gold and oil from freeport. The stock has almost tripled from the january bottom when the survival was at stake. They could easily sell 100 million at nine and change, the usual discount. And any near term likd ti concerns to allow the stock to climb higher. Thats the virtuous circle at work. The moves also boost the stocks of mineral and mining hence katzer pillar from 58 in mid january to nearly 75 today. Thats a commodity stock, too. What could be next . How about aluminum . Nonprecious metal has gone from 66. 5 cent whence the new year began to 72 cents and change. Thats a big percentage gain. Aluminum was getting hammered. Alcoa was one of the best shorts out there. How can anyone justify betting against the stock since alcoa will be breaking up into a highly value added Engineering Company and a pure play on higher aluminum prices. I have mixed emotions based on Commodity Prices rising and frankly thats just not going to happen. It cant last. However when you consider the Way Companies who have issued equity have been able to stave off the grim reaper you can assume the worst is over for a commodity stock that advanced out of the 2 to 3 range where they are scared bankruptcy could be on the horizon. Here is a warning. I would not buy the dollar doubles. They are too dangerous. As a Short Covering rally. Bad news for these bears. Every substantial rally i have ever seen in my career started as a Short Covering rally. This is no different. Whats true is that just like when the banks did equity offerings in the Great Recession they got saved. Le thgs the this is the same thing. The commodity rally cant last forever but the secondary offerings make it selffulfilling and thats just plain bullish for a new beaten down sector. I want to go to brian in new jersey. Brian. Caller yes, jim. Considering the thought that the fed will raise rates at least twice this year how will it affect bank of america . We own bank of america for my Charitable Trust because we thought there would be two rate hikes. Without the rate hike it is stock isnt in good shape. With the rate hikes it is. Its pretty binary so the stock be carefulle if you think the fed is on hold the stock could slip back to 13. Frank in new york. Frank. Caller hey, jim. Booyah. Great show. Youre very kind. My staff brought me tea so i can continue. Caller theyre the best, jimmy. Yes, they are. Caller when is skechers going to get the respect it deserved. Under armour sells for 80 and nike for 30. A 30 pe. We are sitting with a 22 pe. This stock is going in leaps and bounds, jim. It should have at least a 30, 35 pe at least. When yes going to get respect for skechers . One of the reasons it hasnt gotten the respect youre thinking about is its moved. Its a 5 billion company and it was just a couple million not long ago. In the end, nike and under armour are considered more proprietary which is why they multiple. We can quibble about what its east trading for or accept that now skechers is in a show me mode. We want to see what the next quarter does. The last quarter didnt excite people. Maybe this one will. Matt in new jersey, matt. Caller booyah from rutgers always great to hear the students call. Thank you so much. Caller jim, my question is about anheiserbusch. They were forced to give up the miller, coors and chinese snow brewer segment. The stock pays a nice dividend. What do you think about the stock and when should i get in . I like the story very much. I think anbev is good. For a person who wants income stream thats the best. For someone who wants capital growth, really appreciation in the stock i suggest kons installation brands. I think the rally in commodities could be real. Pull back you will buy them. Maybe wont last forever but things look bullish. Tonight, started from the bottom and we are here. I will tell you if the market found its footing and why. Then do disappointments in the market come in bulk . Ill tell you why costcos earn ings miss was a critical moment for the stock. From shake shack to mcdonalds there are a lot of cooks in the kitchen. Tonight i will tell you which restaurant stocks are separating themselves from the pack. Why dont you stick with cramer. Announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Olay regenerist renews from within. Plumping surface cells for a dramatic transformation without the need for fillers. Your concert tee might show your age. Your skin never will. Olay regenerist, olay. Ageless. And try the microsculpting cream you love now with lightweight spf 30. Discover new magnum double raspberry. Made with the perfect balance of raspberry ice cream, luscious raspberry sauce, and belgian chocolate. Discover magnum chocolate pleasure. Working on my feet all day gave me pain here. In my lower back and get my number which matches my dr. Scholls custom fit orthotic inserts. Now i get immediate relief from my foot pain. My lower back pain. Find a machine at drscholls. Com jill and kate use the same dishwasher. Same detergent. But only jill ends up with wet, spotty glasses. Kate adds finish jetdry with five power actions that dry dishes and prevent spots and film, so all thats left is the shine. For better results, use finish jetdry. Shoulders dont just carry pads. They carry your fans passions, hopes, and dreams and maybe, a chance at greatness. Because shoulders were made for greatness. Not dandruff gumdrops on butterflies, the fun cant be beat. Bunnies are so sweet. Rice krispie treats make easter hop how many ways can you. Snap, crackle, pop . Find these treats and more at ricekrispies. Com. Maybe we should call it the jamie diamond bottom. Im talking about the run. Shares of the stock between 53. 14 and 53. 30, within pennies of the act low. It was a beaten up stock at a beaten up moment in the market. I know diamond didnt set out to call a bottom. But looking back from the current price of 59. 94, this well timed buy had more to do with the prevailing gloom, three and a half weeks ago than the conditions at the bank. Not only is jpmorgan up since then but the dow lost from 15,660 to 17,773 and the s p from 8,129 to 2,002 today. What allowed the averages to roar higher. Lets set the scene. Stocks had been falling for a week before the bottom. Many stocks were well off the 52week highs. In the priest week we saw the f. A. N. G. The last of the Tech Leadership had finally been taken out and shot. But the selloff that awaited the market the following week was about far more than tech earnings risk. Wasnt about cyclical risk. At that point Systemic Risk had become the order of the day. They are always frightening. What were they . First, oil. By the end of last year most investors had come to believe Lower Oil Prices would allow the consumer to spend more thus boosting the numbers of the Service Oriented Companies Like the retailers. As the price of crude plummeted from the 40s to the 30s the attitude began to change and we started becoming nervous about the risk to the Financial System caused by plunging oil prices. High 20s near the end of january but the bounce failed and began a relentless decline through february. That very week a cover story said here comes 20 oil. By midweek we hit 26, the low for the cycle so far. Of course we had no idea it was low at the time. For the first time we began hearing chatter about the stress in our banks Balance Sheets from oil loans which had relatively low priority when the Companies Report it is previous stories of giant credit line draw downs from Oil Companies that were strapped which reported to lose 350 million a day permeated the training and infiltrated the headlines. The sell off which seemed contained only accelerated when oil hit 26. At the same time two other powerful forces pulled down the markets. That was the week of the new considered to be a gadfly left wing candidate his victory came as a shock to many including perhaps Hillary Clinton. The media played it up. We started looking into what sanders wants to do. It became clear why hes a socialist. Hes the enemy of the banks and any big corporations. We didnt know at the time but clinton was the prohibitive frontrunner to be the democratic nominee which was clear after she swept the south on super tuesday. Not only have one wild man donald trump but another coming from hijack bernie sanders. The other side of washington we worry about, the fed wasnt doing the market favors either. Janet yellen testified the bottom of the market. Her testimony dove tailed perfectly with the zeitgeist that predominated at the moment. Tightening . Worst of both worlds. That was enough to send treasuries soaring. Fell el to 1. 6 a level indicating tremendous. We see it in the common stocks of the bank known as the contingent convertibles of the bank. The Lehman Brothers of this era, i found that story very hard to believe. Deutsch bank had taken many charges already and issued a ton of equity. Plus the super stock market backing by any means necessary mode. Very negative Interest Rates to ensure nothing catastrophic i doubt the big bankers have an emergency hotline to one another but jamie diamonds brilliant buy coincided with something remarkable. A statement from deutsch bank saying not only was it not in trouble but it was going to buy back more than 5 billion in the same troubled bonds. That wasnt in the doom loop chart the wall street journal ran that week demonstrating the powerlessness to save us from armageddon. When we look back it seems easy. When deutsch bank put its money where its mouth was the moment was washed away. The systemic ris. At the same time jamie diamonds insider buying reminded people that the stock might be cheaper than it looked even if the fed doesnt continue to raise rates. It was a real vote of confidence that i was dismissive of at the time. How about oil . That 26 price was the exact bottom. While oil might be lower longer there is a big difference was more than 11 lower back then. The Oil Companies as detailed earlier are coming to the market en masse with equity to give them more flexibility. Oil may not be out of the woods with the count low but iran is proven to pump a much larger mount than before the u. S. Sanctions and the world wide sanctions i guess you could say, and the u. S. Will have a down year in 2016 because of the lack of drilling. In short the bounce back to 38 a barrel back into january levels is based on something. Bernie sanders is a footnote now that Hillary Clinton has the commanding lead. Looks like she can win out. Next the banks may not have strong earnings but at least stunning declines in the preferred shares are over. I look at those. The big sell off in the Real Estate Investment trust seem to have ended, too. The higher yielding bond market equivalents trade together. Put it all together and you may have an end to the stealth bear market that lasted for months and months. Backing until 2014. What we know is that the diamond bottoms looking increasingly real and, yes, very positive. Much more mad money ahead. Everybody loves a bargain. But after costcos latest earnings is it worth picking up the stock in bulk . Maybe avoid it entirely . A company trying to minimize a shift at kitchen tables across the globe and is it time to gobble up the restaurant stocks . Highlighting companies that should show staying power. Stick with cramer. My son and i used to watch the red carpet shows on tv now, im walking them. Life is unpredictable one thing i need to be predictable is to be flake free. 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Its already dry no wait time. This is great. Its very soft. Can i keep it . laughs all the care of dove. Sometimes a disappointment doesnt necessarily disappoint. Just look at what happened with costco which we own in the Charitable Trust. It reported last thursday and posted a real departure from the long term record of excellence. What happened on the day the number came out . The stock barely moved. The reason, what we have here is a case where negative seeming scenario could be positive from the real world. You see, everyone presumed hard linen sold the stock. This isnt a story but costco is the recent example. Everyone expects it to be bad but the stock fails to go down you have to view it as positive. A sign investors see the situation could get better. Why . Lets think deeper about what happened to costco. The markets reaction is a positive development. First you need to understand the setup going into the quarter. Why everyone assumed it would be disappointed. Costco reported same store sale numbers came in at 1 . Even after the lousy january numbers the analysts continued to believe in the companys long term prospects. Beyond that the bullish analysts said costco would be up against easier comparisons to make the same

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