Transcripts For WHO Mad Money 20151210 : vimarsana.com

WHO Mad Money December 10, 2015

This markets decline, three days, is all about building in the news of the impending rate hike. The first in nine years. Now im hold enough to remember what the market has been like in the ten days leading up to a rate hike and youre getting exactly this kind of action once again. The change is visceral. Those that want to get out before the hike are selling. You cant stop them. The strength of last fridays employment number was simply too great for the fed to ignore and the way Portfolio Managers always react to these things which is to dumb stocks in advance of something seen as very negative is gripping this market. Its making it very difficult to own stocks. A lot of fear now i cant blame anyone for wanting to sell its been so long that theres probably no major fund manager that wants to have big exposure and all money in, just stocks. Event. They fear the sell off, i dont know. Maybe its going to be monsterous. They dont want to take any chances. Plus who know ifs the fed will say theyre going to take more action soon and we need more rate hikes . Now you know thats the discourse on our network and in the press even if it isnt the truth and i dont think it is so we keep building in losses until the event actually occurs. Thats a time honored scenario that if you have not been in the market for a long time unlike me you might not recognize. Second we have this commodity story and it never lets up. The relentless nature of the sell off makes investors believe at the moment the fed is going to raise rates the Global Economy is falling apart. Theyre using commodities as a descent thermometer. While its true that many countries would kill for the growth that china has we know its not good enough for the Companies Selling to the its so bad that you have to worry about the loans, the bank debt, the commodity declines are so visible that many old timers think it has to be nuts to raise Interest Rates because commodities, lets say they have a history of not lying, they are used aggressively when the economy is expanding. And they are used much less when its contracting. Thats the nature of commodities. Youre supposed to raise rates when the economy is expanding rapidly but commodities from oil to copper to nickel to iron are all saying are around the way. The world will be in recession in 2016. Just when many expect the fed to be on auto pilot with a series of clueless rate hikes. Plus many emerging market currencies are in trouble now. The stock market seemed to go down every day. Dollar was today. That too has not been signed because any time the dollar had been weakened and viewed positive for ages. Not right now. Plus the industries that have been strong like autos and housing, they have stocks taking it on the chin right now because multiple rate hikes will indeed hurt their earnings in 2016. Thats a fact of life. I want you to get used to something. I want you to get used to hearing cutting numbers housing stocks, cutting numbers autos. That what happens after a rate hike. Time honored. Third we got to talk a little. Yesterday kindermorgan cut its dividend in a big way. 51 cents to 12. 5 cents. A 90 billion energy colosis run for years by a man thats now chairman and who many people had faith in that they would do the right thing. Largest, smart people. All last year, rich repeatedly told us he was going to be raising his dividend regularly for about as far as the eye could see at least in this business. It was pretty much gospel that he knew what he was doing. He was perhaps the most revered oil man in america. When someone in his position can be this wrong about the health of the oil and gas markets and take down so much debt to capitalize on the growth of an industry thats now seriously lacking we can only sit back astonished at just how wrong so many others might be too. Maybe they be one of just a hand full of people that will have to slice the dividends so aggressively and the others are safe but this cut was devastating to many individuals who bought the stock and its left a whole cohort of income seeking people simply crushed. When someone you believe in so much screws up, you cant even imagine what the other guys are doing. Now kinder stock went up almost 7 today. That the Company Might have to raise more debt and try to issue equity or literally cut the dividend even larger to please the bond holders and they demand more equity. And Kinder Morgan is still down 60 for the year and its shaking the confidence of many of the individuals that relied on the stocks for high yields at a time when theres very little income coming from bonds. Disaster. Now all fossil fuels are innocent until Proven Guilty and why not as negative as others i dont see a need to own any of the names but right mow the market feels the opposite. Theyre saying theyre guilty until proven innocent. It means a combination of things. I say youre going to have to sell them but only industry. I never want to sell because have to tell you, sound is worth a thousand words, this is not a strategy for how to make money. Fourth weve seen a big move in a bunch of tech stocks over the last few weeks and with that new information they cant keep going up every day. Thats not natural. I have been talking about a scarcity of high Growth Stocks as per is on identified by fang. Facebook, amazon, netflix and google. We have end dured endless price target bumps for analysts on all of these stocks on no real news. Hardly a day doesnt go by that i dont see amazon raising price. But stocks cant continually climb without new data. Even these love stocks. Theyre all getting progressively more expensive with no reason to raise estimates, no sign posts that say they should make more money next year than we thought. Plenty of people have profits in to ring the register before the rate hikes again. Again who can blame them. Nailing down a profit is always a beautiful thing. Finally some of the best of the best operators are screwing up or at least thats how it hooks. One of my absolute favorite retailers since i started to show thats right, since we started the show is costco and costco reported subpar earnings last night. Like with rich kinder and oil theres a belief that if costco cant make the estimates who can . Maybe nobody. So retail that should be benefitting from lower gasoline prices those stocks got killed today. My Charitable Trust owns costco. Were itching to buy more. Why . The company has a long history of coming back. Coming back quickly after a miss. A think this time will be no different but the stock had been up over 20 going into the quarter so it has to join the retailers now in price declines before it snaps out of this tail spin. Federal reserve that might raise rates multiple times despite weakness in the economy as expressed by commodity declines does make a ton of sense. When its rationalist sell who can criticize people for selling. Even if it ignores all the value being created, say like a dupont, china merged with dow. Something to show you that managements arent going to take their stocks lack of performance lying down. More on that merger later in the show. To me, its a tough moment. Why . The trader i ran a hedge fund for 14 years, traitor me would like to say id like to do what many institutions are doing. Locking in gains. Got to be careful. Individuals licking their wounds. But the investor in me says stocks have had a big move up into this rate hike. You can never blame anyone for taking profits since you never want to turn gains into losses. Still i say if you pull out now or raises them once and says it will be sometime before they do so again then youll have to scramble back into the market. Maybe it at a lower level in this one but maybe eight higher level because so many people have already stepped aside or taken profits. Unless youre a professional trader, you simply cant be nimble enough to get out and then get back in. I shouldnt say that. Many professionals arent that capable. What should you do . I say, look, take some profits if you want to, lock in some gains, raise some cash, but not all of it. Heres the bottom line. Almost all the damage rate hikes cause to the stock market happens before the hikes. Like right now. And if you sell into this moment youre simply joining the crowd on the way out betting you can get back in without a problem. Based on my experience of more than 30 years thats not a very smart bet to make. Lets go to sue in florida. Big booyah to you and your team. Youre awesome. Our team is so great. And i was talking about him and every single day. Is it a hold or a sell . Youre done there. Keep it on the sidelines maybe we get more of a hit before the fed meeting and we can do some buying of stocks. And there are companies we like that we woen get a sell off in otherwise. So if you sell, right now, maybe you wont be able to get that without paying up or getting some pain. On mad tonight, maybe your wallet or home used to be a nightmare scenario. No longer. Have the exclusive with paypal ceo to talk changes in the payment space. Maybe ill send you some money. Then five below is, you guessed could its 30 decline signal a time to buy . This market may not be bullish but knows good news when it sees it. You know what, it may not be done. I where have an idea. Stick with cramer. Dont miss a second of mad money follow jim cramer on twitter. Have a question madtweets. Send jim an email or give us a call, 1800747cnbc. Miss something . Head to mad money. Cnbc. Com. Ever since darryls wife started using gain flings, their laundry smells more amazing than ever. sniff uh honey, isnt that the dogs towel . Hey, mi towel, su towel. More gain scent, plus oxi boost and febreze for 3 big things in one gain fling. Its our best gain ever man sternly where do you think youre going . Mr. Mucus to work, with you. Its taco tuesday. Man youre not coming. I took mucinex to help get rid of my mucusy congestion. Im good all day. [announcer ] mucinex keeps working. Not 4, not 6, but 12 hours. Lets end this red 97 set red 97 did you say 97 . Yes. You know, that reminds me of geicos 97 Customer Satisfaction rating. 97 . Helped by geicos fast and friendly claims service. Huh. Oh yeah, baby. Geicos as fast and friendly as it gets. Woo choose to move freely. Move free ultra has tripleaction support for your joints, cartilage and bones in one tiny pill. Move free ultra. Get your move on. And now try move free night. The first and only 2in1 joint and sleep supplement. I take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn because you cant beat zero heartburn ahhh the sweet taste of victory prilosec otc. One pill each morning. 24 hours. Zero heartburn. Janet . Cough if you can hear me. Dont even think about it. I took mucinex dm for my phlegmy cough. Yeah. But what about mike . It works on his cough too. Cough it works on his cough too. Mucinex dm relieves wet and dry coughs for 12 hours. Its been an interesting few months for paypal. The newly public mobile and Digital Payment Technology Company spun off from ebay this past july. They had the misfortune of coming public right before a pretty ugly period for the overall stock market but after bottoming around 30 in late august and touching that again in late september the stock is roaring back. To the point where its now 17 from its lows. More important im still a big fan of paypal the stock. You can follow our moves before its my kids favorite form of commerce and millennials inherit the earth and your portfolios. I got a chance to sit down with the president and ceo of paypal at business insiders ignition conference in new york city. Take a look. You are at the intersection right now its mobile and payment and credit. Youre able to control of what makes dollars in all retail worldwide. What can you do with that space. First of all, im a big fan, you do a good job at it. Thank you for having me. Paypal is a solely focused digital and mobile platform right now. We have 173 Million People platform and importantly over 13 million merchants that count on paypal to expose them to all of these different consumers and the world is moving toward mobile right now. The distinction between off line and online is moving and our platform is what we have with paypal and brain tree and what we have with an instore application. All of that together puts us in a really good position to be able to serve merchants and consumers in this new world. Whats it like not to have the legacy where you have to please the old school people. These other guys are not pure digital. Theyre trying to adapt to that world but thats not their world. What advantage does that give you . Being an independent Company Gives us a tremendous amount of first of all, all 17,000 paypal employees are solely focused on mobile and Digital Payments. And compliance to multiple regulatory regimes around the world, its 8,000 people these customers service. In the Digital World its the same thing. If you have a problem with the payment you want to be able to call somebody. It really matters to you so some of the foundational things that most people dont think about when they get into Digital Payments are crucial to establishing trust and security. So we have all that weve done this for 15 years, we have great risk algorithms to protect people from bad guys coming in so that focus has enabled us to grow and year over year were the ecommerce rate. So every quarter were taking incremental share right now. My kids and every other kid i know says paypal is their credit card. Of course credit card is an old term. How did you get so much trust with millennials and how do they know there is more cyber security. Well if you think about it we were among the very first to offer Digital Games and the Younger Generation naturally adapted to online and theyre moving toward mobile as well. So they had experience with paypal. We offer a thing called tokenization which said you company. That was only between you and paypal. Your user name and password. By the way, were able to do with that now. Simply log in and one touch you can check out and then you never had to add in your information again. So we made it simple, safe, easy and secure and that was the key to paypals early success. Now you also have for older people that get tired of putting in their same information over and over again we had a private company that said Something Like 80 of the people wont go through the whole shopping cart. Paypal you just type it in. Another advantage over everybody else . A great point youre raising and its even a more important point when you think about mobile. When you are on your desktop and youre adding information and you have a pretty large screen that. Conversion rates on mobile are low because you have such a small screen and youre trying to add in all of that information and its very difficult to complete the order so what we started off with is all of your information is kept secure and safe and we populate that to over 13 million merchants on check out so you dont have to add any of that information but this year we took check out another step further and we introduced a kwer sis called one touch. Because we had very sophisticated risk algorithms we did over 5 billion transactions this year. We take the data from that and we do those to say is it really you . Device and you see something you like and youre a paypal member with one touch, literally one touch in seconds you can check out on your mobile phone and for merchants this is great, right . Because Conversion Rates go way up. Instead of dropping they go up. And for u. S. Consumer its simple, fast, easy. I was on the Long Island Railroad and someone didnt have enough money to be able to pay the ticket and i reached in my pocket to give them cash and the person next to me said do you have it and boom, in the account. I didnt know it was paypal. Id like to think that im a little sophisticated. This was during the summer. I of course now have done research. But this is the quarter perhaps where people will know that paypal is venmo because its rapid growth and loft. Yeah. Venmo is one of the jewels of paypal. It came with our brain tree brain tree. And it literally is the way that the generation pays and manages and moves their money. Its become a verb. Will you venmo me. We did over 2. 1 bmds worth last year and growing over 200 year on year and what well start is trials where youll not only be able to send money from one person to another but youll be able to buy at different merchants paying with venmo so were extending that service right now so that somebody cannot just transfer money person to person but also use it at retailers and thats going to be tremendous. Including macys. Macys will be one that almost every paypal merchant of the millions upon millions of venmo users that will be avid shoppers as well. In the time we have left, theres a hedge Fund Contingent that owns paypal. You have to be bound by the four walls in the quarter. How can we think bigger and have individuals recognize that this quarter or that quarter is not the way they should look at paypal . Obviously we pay a lot of attention to our guidance and what we put on the street and we have beaten that guidance on a consistent basis and thats important to us. But the way i think to think about paypal is its in the middle of the digital revolution thats happening right now. Its so interesting. Black friday was the first time that more people shopped online than went in store. And i talked to a lot of friends at retailers from walmart to them said that this year was kind of this turning point where mobile is the way that people start to shop. And that plays into the longterm strengths of paypal. So i think that not only do we want to ride that digital and mobile feature and not just be online and in app mary but move in store which opens tremendous opportunities for us where we can be fully on the channel. But i think thats just our focus as to what we do and i think as long as we stay focused an we execute on a game plan. I was always hoping they would spin you off i like that pure play in mobile because i like what my kids tell me they like. Dan, thank you so much for appreciate it. One of many pieces in my life. 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